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College Football Playoff stock watch: Why Penn State is rising, Michigan is falling

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College Football Playoff stock watch: Why Penn State is rising, Michigan is falling

We are about a quarter of the way through the college football season, and there has been no shortage of drama. Three of the 12 teams projected to make the College Football Playoff by my model in the preseason are no longer in the field, and three teams that were on the bubble have also fallen by the wayside. All of that in just four weeks.

When I wrote a stock report after Week 2, the teams that were trending up were Miami, Tennessee and USC. As it stands, Miami is the projected No. 3 seed as the team to beat in the ACC (72 percent chance to make the Playoff, 40 percent chance to win the ACC). Tennessee is coming off a road win at Oklahoma and is slotted as the 10 seed with a 73 percent chance to make the field. And despite a road loss to Michigan, USC is hanging on to a spot in the projected bracket as the 11 seed with a 45 percent chance. Miami and Tennessee have increased their projected seed since two weeks ago (up one spot each), while USC dropped one spot.

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On the other end, the three teams I wrote about who were trending down were Oregon, Notre Dame and Michigan. Oregon is still in the projected Playoff field as the No. 6 seed, and its Playoff odds have risen to 87 percent, even if its overall team rating has not increased in my rankings. Notre Dame has moved up on the bubble since two weeks ago after a crushing home defeat to Northern Illinois, but the Irish’s Playoff odds have risen only 5 percentage points to 37 percent.

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As for Michigan? Yes, the Wolverines just earned a season-saving win against USC, but I’m not sold on the Wolverines yet, and neither is my model.

Stock up

Penn State

The Nittany Lions’ Playoff odds have gone up 8 percentage points over the past two weeks to 80 percent, sixth highest in the country. More importantly, their overall team strength has gone up 2.5 points (this is compared to an average FBS team). The defense has taken some bumps and bruises but still should be a top-20 unit. The major improvement has been the offense. Penn State ranks seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense, 13th in offensive success rate and third in explosive play percentage, according to TruMedia. Sure, the Kent State game might be propping up these numbers a bit, but Penn State wiped the floor with West Virginia’s defense on the road and beat up on a solid Bowling Green team that just gave Texas A&M all it could handle in College Station.

The other thing that works out nicely for Penn State is its schedule. Penn State is projected to be favored in all but one game the rest of the year — and even in that one game at home against Ohio State, my model gives the Nittany Lions a 48 percent chance of winning. A road game at USC will be another tough task, but outside of that, the road trips to Wisconsin and Minnesota don’t look as daunting as they did at the start of the season.

My model has Penn State winning 10-plus games in 72 percent of simulations, which should get it into the Playoff.

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What I think I know about Penn State as Big Ten play starts

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Drew Allar ranks second in the FBS in pass efficiency rating. (Matthew O’Haren / Imagn Images)

Boise State

Boise State was a couple of bounces away from taking down Oregon in Eugene, but despite the early blemish, the Broncos’ Playoff odds have increased by 13 percentage points, all the way up to 36 percent from two weeks ago. Now, I must say that the Group of 5 projection could be a little wonky, as I’m not sure how the committee will view each conference. But one thing the Broncos have going for them is that Memphis (Navy) and Texas State (Arizona State) lost in the past two weeks, and neither loss will be as good as a road loss to Oregon. A win against Washington State this week, in a game in which it’s favored by around a touchdown, would be a huge boost to Boise State’s resume.

Boise State has arguably the best running back in college football in Ashton Jeanty, who could be the first running back taken in next year’s NFL Draft. He ranks first nationally in EPA per rush and third in percentage of rushes that go 20-plus yards. Even if defenses stack the box, Jeanty can burn you. If there was a Heisman Trophy given to a non-Power 4 player, Jeanty would be the favorite. And he’s the biggest reason why Boise State has the best Playoff odds in the Group of 5.

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Stock down

Michigan

Yes, Michigan just beat USC, but it passed for only 32 yards and won through big runs and a pick six. That’s going to be a hard recipe to sustain against quality opponents. Sure, the Alex Orji move at quarterback is best for the team, but at the end of the day, the Wolverines appear to be just a more athletic/talented version of the Iowa teams of the past few years. Can they win eight or nine games? Yes. But a Playoff run? That’s unlikely.

Michigan still has Oregon at home as well as a trip to Ohio State. Don’t sleep on road trips to Washington, Illinois and Indiana, either. My model gave Michigan just a 2 percent chance to make the Playoff last week, and that number increased to just 5 percent after the USC win. Such a slight increase paints the picture of the long-term concerns.

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It’s possible Orji allows the Wolverines’ run game to be more explosive than it was the first three weeks. Kalel Mullings seems to be their best running back, and they leaned on him late against USC. And running the ball efficiently while taking care of the football with a great defense has been successful in past years of the Big Ten. I’m just not sure it’s a recipe to become a Playoff team. With a loss already on the schedule and the tricky slate still ahead, I have had time seeing Michigan getting to double-digit wins.

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LSU

I expected some regression on offense after LSU lost a Heisman Trophy quarterback in Jayden Daniels along with two first-round wide receivers, but I also expected some improvement on defense. To this point, LSU just isn’t good enough on defense. It ranks 83rd in EPA per play, 74th in defensive success rate and 82nd in yards per play on first down. It’s also played a tough schedule with USC and South Carolina, and the upcoming SEC slate isn’t easy with Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The front seven was thin to begin the year and just lost star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to a season-ending injury.

My projections had LSU at 24 percent to make the Playoff two weeks ago, and that number has fallen to just 12 percent heading into Week 5. Narrowly escaping South Carolina and being tied with a bad UCLA team at home going into halftime isn’t going to give my model any confidence in LSU. Could the offense carry the Tigers for a few games? Yes, of course. I’m actually bullish on the offense for the rest of the season behind Garrett Nussmeier. Unfortunately, LSU hasn’t made the strides necessary on defense to become a Playoff contender.

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LSU star LB Harold Perkins out for season with torn ACL: Source

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(Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

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Hurricane Helene isn’t the only one to blame for Mets-Braves schedule mess

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Hurricane Helene isn’t the only one to blame for Mets-Braves schedule mess

Major League Baseball didn’t ask for Hurricane Helene to interrupt what is shaping up to be two fantastic wild-card races. But the league isn’t blameless in avoiding the worst-case scenario announced Wednesday: the potential for the Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets to play a doubleheader Monday, the day before postseason play begins.

The ripple effects of the announced postponement of Wednesday’s and Thursday’s games, a series that could decide both teams’ seasons, are enormous. The competitive disadvantages of playing 18 innings before a Wild Card Series can’t be overstated. (Though if, somehow, one or both games aren’t needed then they won’t be played.)

Could it have been avoided?

Maybe.

MLB has the power to force logistics, to force both teams to play when and where it wants, so long as the union is in agreement. But traditionally, it has tried to appease both teams and, in this case, that was impossible. The storm set to shut down Atlanta for two days was preceded by the perfect storm of events to make this a massive headache for the league.

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Thursday’s game is a makeup of an April 10 game that was postponed after the Mets had gone through pregame preparations and taken batting practice and they weren’t willing to come back earlier and burn an off day. So they petitioned MLB to tack on the game to this September series, not only an unusually long wait for a makeup game but also a function of a more balanced schedule in which division teams play each other less, and complicate rescheduling opportunities. (The Braves agreed to the proposition.)

The Mets would likely not have been keen to move Thursday’s game up to this past Monday, another shared off day between the two clubs, as they were coming off a Sunday night game.

The Braves were concerned about the sold-out crowds expected, and earlier in the week the forecast had made it seem feasible for Wednesday’s game to be played, a possibility that got more remote as the weather forecast worsened. Tuesday, when the league mulled a time change, the forecast looked better in the evening. It started raining shortly after noon Wednesday in Atlanta, and pushing up the start time of the game would have mattered little, unless the two teams agreed to an unprecedented morning start. (MLB doesn’t like to start games that are unlikely to go at least five innings.)

Both teams — in contention but yet to clinch a playoff spot — were ultimately looking out for their own best interests, which shouldn’t come as a surprise. What is up for debate is whether the league, which started discussions with both teams Monday, should have acted more boldly with its power and forced the series to play at a neutral site or changed the schedule entirely with a game Monday and two more Tuesday. Perhaps.

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On one hand, the weather forecast looked vastly different earlier this week, and all three parties thought Wednesday’s game wouldn’t be an issue. The hurricane isn’t hitting Atlanta until Thursday, with schools closed Thursday and Friday, and the possibility of one makeup game — not two — seemed considerably less daunting. The decision to change the series would have had to come Sunday at the latest when it wasn’t even clear how bad the storm would be and whether Atlanta would be in its path.

It would have been unprecedented — and also a logistical nightmare — to decide earlier this week to move all of or part of the series to a neutral site, one that would have required both teams to be on board and be proactive, which wasn’t the case. For a series with big stakes, it’s understandable that the league didn’t want to pull the plug on a highly anticipated sellout series.

It would have angered at least one, and probably both teams, to change the layout of the series to give them back Thursday’s off day, particularly as it became clear to everyone involved that Thursday wasn’t going to be feasible. But as the regular season winds down and numerous teams are fighting for their playoff lives, it also might have been better in this case to be safe than sorry. That might have required doing the unpleasant and unprecedented thing, even if both teams were upset about it, and decide to move up a series even when the weather report wasn’t crystallized.

Because the flip side is a nightmare, and it could be even more complicated if the AL wild card hopeful Kansas City Royals, who are slated to play in Atlanta this weekend, have travel issues getting in. (If they can’t play Friday, that would almost certainly be a Saturday doubleheader.)

MLB has — in recent years — set the schedule so that every single team plays at the same time Sunday to conclude the regular season. It creates excitement, drama and you can make the case that it evens the competitive field as best as possible. Everyone gets to reset Monday. Unless you’re the Braves or Mets, who could be looking at filling out 18 innings as a way to prepare for a do-or-die Wild Card Series that could start on the road.

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The only hope now, for both teams and the league, is Arizona fades and renders those games meaningless enough that they don’t get played. (It’s widely assumed both teams would prefer the off day than to play for a mere playoff seed.) The alternative is bad for the Braves, bad for the Mets and just bad for baseball.

(Photo: Kevin D. Liles / Atlanta Braves / Getty Images)

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Derrick Rose, one-time MVP, announces retirement from the NBA after 16 seasons

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Derrick Rose, one-time MVP, announces retirement from the NBA after 16 seasons

Derrick Rose, who won the MVP in the prime of his career, is retiring after 16 seasons in the NBA. 

The 35-year-old was selected by the Chicago Bulls with the first overall pick in the 2008 NBA Draft and had an immediate impact on the franchise.

Rose won rookie of the year in 2008-09 and is still the youngest player in NBA history to win the MVP in the 2010-11 season at 22 years old, while also making the All-Star team in three of the first four years of his career. 

Memphis Grizzlies guard Derrick Rose (23) during team introductions before their game against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Paycom Center.  (Alonzo Adams-USA Today Sports)

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Rose announced his retirement on social media, as well as taking out full-page advertisements in each of the cities where he played. 

“You believed in me through the highs and lows, my constant when everything else seemed uncertain,” Rose wrote as part of his letter to the game, serving as his retirement announcement.

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Derrick Rose poses

Chicago Bulls point guard Derrick Rose (1) is presented the MVP trophy before game one of the second round of the 2011 NBA playoffs against the Atlanta Hawks at the United Center.  (Mike DiNovo-USA Today Sports)

“You gave me a gift, our time together, one that I will cherish for the rest of my days. You told me it’s okay to say goodbye, reassuring me that you’ll always be a part of me, no matter where life takes me,” Rose wrote.

Rose was on track to be one of the NBA’s biggest superstars before tearing his ACL in Game 1 of the Bulls’ first-round playoff series against the Philadelphia 76ers in 2012. Rose never had the same explosiveness around the rim, and nearly missed two full seasons while recovering from the surgery.

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Derrick Rose in action

Memphis Grizzlies guard Derrick Rose (23) handles the ball as Houston Rockets guard Fred VanVleet (5) defends during the first half at FedExForum.  (Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports)

After spending seven seasons with the Bulls, Rose played for five other franchises in his career. He played with the New York Knicks in two different stints, the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Detroit Pistons and the Minnesota Timberwolves, and spent his final season with the Memphis Grizzlies.

Rose averaged 17.4 points and 5.2 assists over his 723 career regular season games. 

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Will a late start lead to a wacky ending? Five things to watch in UCLA vs. Oregon

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Will a late start lead to a wacky ending? Five things to watch in UCLA vs. Oregon

Tom Petty might as well have been singing about UCLA football’s latest ordeal when he uttered one of his most famous lines.

The waiting is the hardest part.

Those lyrics, written more than four decades ago in reference to a performer antsy to get on stage, will also apply to the Bruins (1-2 overall, 0-1 Big Ten) on Saturday as they wait … and wait … and wait for an 8 p.m. PDT kickoff against No. 8 Oregon (3-0, 0-0) at the Rose Bowl.

It will go down as UCLA’s latest start on the West Coast since 1990. Players can grab a leisurely breakfast at their Pasadena hotel, lie out by the pool and watch a full day’s worth of college football before boarding the team bus.

“A little hot tub, foam roll, but I don’t think it changes too much,” Bruins tight end Jack Pedersen said of his routine. “You just shift everything back a few hours and you just get ready. Put your cleats on, put your helmet on and go play, you know?”

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Traditionally, late starts have led to weird things, sometimes favoring the underdog. But Oregon has reason to be filled with confidence in what will go down as both its first Big Ten game and its “Big Ten After Dark” debut.

The Ducks are 4-0 under coach Dan Lanning and have won 12 consecutive games when kicking off at 7 p.m. Pacific time or later. Oregon has also dominated its series against UCLA in recent years, winning the past four meetings and 10 of the last 11.

Here are four things to watch in a game that will be broadcast by Fox:

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