Sports
College Football Playoff stock watch: Why Penn State is rising, Michigan is falling
We are about a quarter of the way through the college football season, and there has been no shortage of drama. Three of the 12 teams projected to make the College Football Playoff by my model in the preseason are no longer in the field, and three teams that were on the bubble have also fallen by the wayside. All of that in just four weeks.
When I wrote a stock report after Week 2, the teams that were trending up were Miami, Tennessee and USC. As it stands, Miami is the projected No. 3 seed as the team to beat in the ACC (72 percent chance to make the Playoff, 40 percent chance to win the ACC). Tennessee is coming off a road win at Oklahoma and is slotted as the 10 seed with a 73 percent chance to make the field. And despite a road loss to Michigan, USC is hanging on to a spot in the projected bracket as the 11 seed with a 45 percent chance. Miami and Tennessee have increased their projected seed since two weeks ago (up one spot each), while USC dropped one spot.
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On the other end, the three teams I wrote about who were trending down were Oregon, Notre Dame and Michigan. Oregon is still in the projected Playoff field as the No. 6 seed, and its Playoff odds have risen to 87 percent, even if its overall team rating has not increased in my rankings. Notre Dame has moved up on the bubble since two weeks ago after a crushing home defeat to Northern Illinois, but the Irish’s Playoff odds have risen only 5 percentage points to 37 percent.
As for Michigan? Yes, the Wolverines just earned a season-saving win against USC, but I’m not sold on the Wolverines yet, and neither is my model.
Stock up
Penn State
The Nittany Lions’ Playoff odds have gone up 8 percentage points over the past two weeks to 80 percent, sixth highest in the country. More importantly, their overall team strength has gone up 2.5 points (this is compared to an average FBS team). The defense has taken some bumps and bruises but still should be a top-20 unit. The major improvement has been the offense. Penn State ranks seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense, 13th in offensive success rate and third in explosive play percentage, according to TruMedia. Sure, the Kent State game might be propping up these numbers a bit, but Penn State wiped the floor with West Virginia’s defense on the road and beat up on a solid Bowling Green team that just gave Texas A&M all it could handle in College Station.
The other thing that works out nicely for Penn State is its schedule. Penn State is projected to be favored in all but one game the rest of the year — and even in that one game at home against Ohio State, my model gives the Nittany Lions a 48 percent chance of winning. A road game at USC will be another tough task, but outside of that, the road trips to Wisconsin and Minnesota don’t look as daunting as they did at the start of the season.
My model has Penn State winning 10-plus games in 72 percent of simulations, which should get it into the Playoff.
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Drew Allar ranks second in the FBS in pass efficiency rating. (Matthew O’Haren / Imagn Images)
Boise State
Boise State was a couple of bounces away from taking down Oregon in Eugene, but despite the early blemish, the Broncos’ Playoff odds have increased by 13 percentage points, all the way up to 36 percent from two weeks ago. Now, I must say that the Group of 5 projection could be a little wonky, as I’m not sure how the committee will view each conference. But one thing the Broncos have going for them is that Memphis (Navy) and Texas State (Arizona State) lost in the past two weeks, and neither loss will be as good as a road loss to Oregon. A win against Washington State this week, in a game in which it’s favored by around a touchdown, would be a huge boost to Boise State’s resume.
Boise State has arguably the best running back in college football in Ashton Jeanty, who could be the first running back taken in next year’s NFL Draft. He ranks first nationally in EPA per rush and third in percentage of rushes that go 20-plus yards. Even if defenses stack the box, Jeanty can burn you. If there was a Heisman Trophy given to a non-Power 4 player, Jeanty would be the favorite. And he’s the biggest reason why Boise State has the best Playoff odds in the Group of 5.
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Stock down
Michigan
Yes, Michigan just beat USC, but it passed for only 32 yards and won through big runs and a pick six. That’s going to be a hard recipe to sustain against quality opponents. Sure, the Alex Orji move at quarterback is best for the team, but at the end of the day, the Wolverines appear to be just a more athletic/talented version of the Iowa teams of the past few years. Can they win eight or nine games? Yes. But a Playoff run? That’s unlikely.
Michigan still has Oregon at home as well as a trip to Ohio State. Don’t sleep on road trips to Washington, Illinois and Indiana, either. My model gave Michigan just a 2 percent chance to make the Playoff last week, and that number increased to just 5 percent after the USC win. Such a slight increase paints the picture of the long-term concerns.
It’s possible Orji allows the Wolverines’ run game to be more explosive than it was the first three weeks. Kalel Mullings seems to be their best running back, and they leaned on him late against USC. And running the ball efficiently while taking care of the football with a great defense has been successful in past years of the Big Ten. I’m just not sure it’s a recipe to become a Playoff team. With a loss already on the schedule and the tricky slate still ahead, I have had time seeing Michigan getting to double-digit wins.
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LSU
I expected some regression on offense after LSU lost a Heisman Trophy quarterback in Jayden Daniels along with two first-round wide receivers, but I also expected some improvement on defense. To this point, LSU just isn’t good enough on defense. It ranks 83rd in EPA per play, 74th in defensive success rate and 82nd in yards per play on first down. It’s also played a tough schedule with USC and South Carolina, and the upcoming SEC slate isn’t easy with Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The front seven was thin to begin the year and just lost star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to a season-ending injury.
My projections had LSU at 24 percent to make the Playoff two weeks ago, and that number has fallen to just 12 percent heading into Week 5. Narrowly escaping South Carolina and being tied with a bad UCLA team at home going into halftime isn’t going to give my model any confidence in LSU. Could the offense carry the Tigers for a few games? Yes, of course. I’m actually bullish on the offense for the rest of the season behind Garrett Nussmeier. Unfortunately, LSU hasn’t made the strides necessary on defense to become a Playoff contender.
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(Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
Sports
Miami beats Ole Miss behind Carson Beck’s game-winning touchdown to reach CFP National Championship Game
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The Miami Hurricanes are heading to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, coming away with a narrow victory over Ole Miss, 31-27, in an all-time postseason contest.
The Hurricanes will now await the winner of the other semifinal between the Indiana Hoosiers and Oregon Ducks to see who they will play on Jan. 19. But Miami will do so on their home turf, with the National Championship Game being played at Hard Rock Stadium – the site of their home games.
The game began slowly for both teams, with only Miami getting on the scoreboard in the first quarter with a field goal on their 13-play opening drive. But the fireworks came out from there for the Rebels thanks to the speed of running back Kewan Lacy.
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Charmar Brown of the Miami (FL) Hurricanes celebrates a run in the first quarter of the 2025 College Football Playoff Semifinal at State Farm Stadium on Jan. 8, 2026 in Glendale, Arizona. (Steve Limentani/ISI Photos)
On just the second play of the second quarter, Lacy was off to the race, finding a seam and busting out a 73-yard touchdown run to go up 7-3 after the extra point.
But this game was back and forth for quite some time, including the ensuing Hurricanes drive as quarterback Carson Beck led the way on a 15-play touchdown series with a CharMar Brown rushing score from four yards out.
The game was deadlocked at 10 apiece when Beck decided to air it out to Keelan Marion, and it was worth the risk. Marion made the grab for a 52-yard touchdown to help Miami go up 17-13 at halftime.
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The third quarter was an odd one for both squads, as their opening drives resulted in a missed field goal apiece. Then, after Beck threw an interception, the Rebels were able to cut the lead to 17-16 in favor of the Hurricanes heading into the fourth quarter for the ages.
There was no absence of electric plays when it mattered most in the final 15 minutes, as Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss got his team downfield enough to take a 19-17 lead with a field goal.
But the speed of Malachi Toney changed the scoreboard for Miami in the best way possible, as he took a screen 36 yards to the house, capping a four-play, 75-yard answer drive for the Hurricanes right after Ole Miss took the lead.
Trinidad Chambliss of the Ole Miss Rebels celebrates a touchdown against the Miami Hurricanes in the second quarter during the 2025 College Football Playoff Semifinal at the VRBO Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium on Jan. 8, 2026 in Glendale, Arizona. (Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
With a 24-19 lead and five minutes left to play in the game, Chambliss and the Rebels’ offense had quite enough time to retake the lead. He did just that, finding trusty tight end Dae’Quan Wright for 24 yards to send the Rebels faithful ballistic.
Ole Miss wanted to go for two in hopes of making it a three-point lead, and Chambliss came through again, finding a wide open Caleb Odom for the key score.
It was up to Beck and the Miami offense to keep the game alive with at least tying the game at 27 apiece. On a crucial third-and-10 just inside field goal range, Beck was confident with his pass to Marion to get well within range. Another pass to Marion made it first-and-goal, and it was clear Miami wasn’t trying to force overtime. They wanted to win it all.
How fitting was it that Beck, scanning the field, found a seam to his left and just sprinted for the colored paint to score the game-winner with 18 seconds left.
But things got fascinating at the end, with Ole Miss going 40 yards in just a few seconds to set up a Hail Mary for the win. Chambliss had the space to loft a pass to the end zone, and though it hit off the hand of a teammate, it landed incomplete for the Miami victory.
Carson Beck of the Miami Hurricanes passes the ball against the Ole Miss Rebels in the first quarter during the 2025 College Football Playoff Semifinal at the VRBO Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium on Jan. 8, 2026 in Glendale, Arizona. (Chris Coduto/Getty Images)
In the box score, Beck was 23-of-37 for 268 yards with his two passing touchdowns and an interception. Marion was a key player in the victory with seven catches for 114 yards, while Mark Fletcher Jr. set the tone in the ground game with 133 yards rushing on 22 carries. Toney also tallied 81 receiving yards for Miami.
For Ole Miss, Chambliss also went 23-of-37 for 277 yards with his touchdown to Wright, who finished with 64 yards on three grabs. De’Zhaun Stribling was five for 77 through the air, while Lacy rushed for 103 yards on 11 carries.
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Sports
Damien basketball team opens 24-0 lead, then holds off Etiwanda
Junior guard Zaire Rasshan of Damien knows football. His father, Osaar, was a backup quarterback at UCLA from 2005-09. Rasshan played quarterback his freshman season at Damien until deciding basketball was his No. 1 sport.
So when Rasshan looked up at the scoreboard Thursday night at Etiwanda in the first quarter and saw the Spartans had scored the first 24 points, he had to think football.
“That was crazy,” he said. “That’s three touchdowns and a field goal.”
Damien (17-4, 2-0) was able to hold off Etiwanda 56-43 to pick up a key Baseline League road victory. Winning at Etiwanda has been a rarity for many teams through the years. But Damien’s fast start couldn’t have been any better. The Spartans didn’t miss any shots while playing good defense for their 24-0 surge. Etiwanda’s first basket didn’t come until the 1:38 mark of the first quarter.
“When we play together, we can beat anyone,” Rasshan said.
Rasshan was a big part of the victory, contributing 23 points. Eli Garner had 14 points and 11 rebounds.
Etiwanda came in 18-1 and 1-0 in league. The Eagles missed 13 free throws, which prevented any comeback. The closest they got in the second half was within 11 points.
Damien’s victory puts it squarely in contention for a Southern Section Open Division playoff spot. The Spartans lost in the final seconds to Redondo Union in the Classic at Damien, showing they can compete with the big boys in coach Mike LeDuc’s 52nd season of coaching.
Rasshan is averaging nearly 20 points a game. He made three threes. And he hasn’t forgotten how to make a long pass, whether it’s with a football or basketball.
Sports
Ole Miss staffer references Aaron Hernandez while discussing ‘chaotic’ coaching complications with LSU
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The chaos between LSU coaches who left Ole Miss alongside Lane Kiffin but are still coaching the Rebels in the College Football Playoff is certainly a whirlwind.
Joe Judge, Ole Miss’ quarterbacks coach, has found himself in the thick of the drama — while he is not headed for Baton Rouge, he’s had to wonder who he will be working with on a weekly basis.
When asked this week about what it’s like to go through all the trials and tribulations, Judge turned heads with his answer that evoked his New England Patriots days.
Aaron Hernandez sits in the courtroom of the Attleboro District Court during his hearing. Former New England Patriot Aaron Hernandez has been indicted on a first-degree murder charge in the death of Odin Lloyd in North Attleboro, Massachusetts, on Aug. 22, 2013. (Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)
“My next-door neighbor was Aaron Hernandez,” Judge said, according to CBS Sports. “I know this is still more chaotic.”
Hernandez was found guilty of the 2013 murder of Odin Lloyd, which occurred just three years into his NFL career.
“If you watch those documentaries, my house is on the TV next door,” Judge added. “The detectives knocked on my door to find out where he was. I didn’t know. We just kind of talked to the organization. But it was obviously chaotic.”
Aaron Hernandez was convicted of the 2013 murder of semipro football player Odin Lloyd. (REUTERS/Brian Snyder)
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Judge, though, was able to compare the two situations to see how players can combat wild distractions.
“Those players that year handled that extremely well. Came out of that chaos, and we had some really good direction inside with some veterans and some different guys. You have something like that happen — how do you handle something like that? How do you deal with something like that? So you keep the focus on what you can handle, what you can control, which at that time was football for us, and we went through the stretch, and we were able to have success that year,” Judge said.
Judge also compared this scenario to the 2020 NFL season when he was head coach of the New York Giants, saying he would have “no idea” who would be available due to surprise positive COVID-19 tests.
Head coach Joe Judge of the New York Giants looks on during the second quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at MetLife Stadium. The game took place in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Dec. 19, 2021. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
The Rebels face Miami in the Fiesta Bowl, the College Football Playoff Semifinal, on Thursday night.
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