Sports
College Football Playoff stock watch: Why Penn State is rising, Michigan is falling
We are about a quarter of the way through the college football season, and there has been no shortage of drama. Three of the 12 teams projected to make the College Football Playoff by my model in the preseason are no longer in the field, and three teams that were on the bubble have also fallen by the wayside. All of that in just four weeks.
When I wrote a stock report after Week 2, the teams that were trending up were Miami, Tennessee and USC. As it stands, Miami is the projected No. 3 seed as the team to beat in the ACC (72 percent chance to make the Playoff, 40 percent chance to win the ACC). Tennessee is coming off a road win at Oklahoma and is slotted as the 10 seed with a 73 percent chance to make the field. And despite a road loss to Michigan, USC is hanging on to a spot in the projected bracket as the 11 seed with a 45 percent chance. Miami and Tennessee have increased their projected seed since two weeks ago (up one spot each), while USC dropped one spot.
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On the other end, the three teams I wrote about who were trending down were Oregon, Notre Dame and Michigan. Oregon is still in the projected Playoff field as the No. 6 seed, and its Playoff odds have risen to 87 percent, even if its overall team rating has not increased in my rankings. Notre Dame has moved up on the bubble since two weeks ago after a crushing home defeat to Northern Illinois, but the Irish’s Playoff odds have risen only 5 percentage points to 37 percent.
As for Michigan? Yes, the Wolverines just earned a season-saving win against USC, but I’m not sold on the Wolverines yet, and neither is my model.
Stock up
Penn State
The Nittany Lions’ Playoff odds have gone up 8 percentage points over the past two weeks to 80 percent, sixth highest in the country. More importantly, their overall team strength has gone up 2.5 points (this is compared to an average FBS team). The defense has taken some bumps and bruises but still should be a top-20 unit. The major improvement has been the offense. Penn State ranks seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense, 13th in offensive success rate and third in explosive play percentage, according to TruMedia. Sure, the Kent State game might be propping up these numbers a bit, but Penn State wiped the floor with West Virginia’s defense on the road and beat up on a solid Bowling Green team that just gave Texas A&M all it could handle in College Station.
The other thing that works out nicely for Penn State is its schedule. Penn State is projected to be favored in all but one game the rest of the year — and even in that one game at home against Ohio State, my model gives the Nittany Lions a 48 percent chance of winning. A road game at USC will be another tough task, but outside of that, the road trips to Wisconsin and Minnesota don’t look as daunting as they did at the start of the season.
My model has Penn State winning 10-plus games in 72 percent of simulations, which should get it into the Playoff.
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Drew Allar ranks second in the FBS in pass efficiency rating. (Matthew O’Haren / Imagn Images)
Boise State
Boise State was a couple of bounces away from taking down Oregon in Eugene, but despite the early blemish, the Broncos’ Playoff odds have increased by 13 percentage points, all the way up to 36 percent from two weeks ago. Now, I must say that the Group of 5 projection could be a little wonky, as I’m not sure how the committee will view each conference. But one thing the Broncos have going for them is that Memphis (Navy) and Texas State (Arizona State) lost in the past two weeks, and neither loss will be as good as a road loss to Oregon. A win against Washington State this week, in a game in which it’s favored by around a touchdown, would be a huge boost to Boise State’s resume.
Boise State has arguably the best running back in college football in Ashton Jeanty, who could be the first running back taken in next year’s NFL Draft. He ranks first nationally in EPA per rush and third in percentage of rushes that go 20-plus yards. Even if defenses stack the box, Jeanty can burn you. If there was a Heisman Trophy given to a non-Power 4 player, Jeanty would be the favorite. And he’s the biggest reason why Boise State has the best Playoff odds in the Group of 5.
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Stock down
Michigan
Yes, Michigan just beat USC, but it passed for only 32 yards and won through big runs and a pick six. That’s going to be a hard recipe to sustain against quality opponents. Sure, the Alex Orji move at quarterback is best for the team, but at the end of the day, the Wolverines appear to be just a more athletic/talented version of the Iowa teams of the past few years. Can they win eight or nine games? Yes. But a Playoff run? That’s unlikely.
Michigan still has Oregon at home as well as a trip to Ohio State. Don’t sleep on road trips to Washington, Illinois and Indiana, either. My model gave Michigan just a 2 percent chance to make the Playoff last week, and that number increased to just 5 percent after the USC win. Such a slight increase paints the picture of the long-term concerns.
It’s possible Orji allows the Wolverines’ run game to be more explosive than it was the first three weeks. Kalel Mullings seems to be their best running back, and they leaned on him late against USC. And running the ball efficiently while taking care of the football with a great defense has been successful in past years of the Big Ten. I’m just not sure it’s a recipe to become a Playoff team. With a loss already on the schedule and the tricky slate still ahead, I have had time seeing Michigan getting to double-digit wins.
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LSU
I expected some regression on offense after LSU lost a Heisman Trophy quarterback in Jayden Daniels along with two first-round wide receivers, but I also expected some improvement on defense. To this point, LSU just isn’t good enough on defense. It ranks 83rd in EPA per play, 74th in defensive success rate and 82nd in yards per play on first down. It’s also played a tough schedule with USC and South Carolina, and the upcoming SEC slate isn’t easy with Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The front seven was thin to begin the year and just lost star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to a season-ending injury.
My projections had LSU at 24 percent to make the Playoff two weeks ago, and that number has fallen to just 12 percent heading into Week 5. Narrowly escaping South Carolina and being tied with a bad UCLA team at home going into halftime isn’t going to give my model any confidence in LSU. Could the offense carry the Tigers for a few games? Yes, of course. I’m actually bullish on the offense for the rest of the season behind Garrett Nussmeier. Unfortunately, LSU hasn’t made the strides necessary on defense to become a Playoff contender.
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(Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
Sports
ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum questions Trump’s college sports reform meeting as potential ‘circus’
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President Donald Trump will host a White House roundtable regarding college athletics reform later this week.
The panel is expected to include prominent coaches, college sports and pro sports league commissioners, and other professional athletes, according to OutKick.
The group will meet March 6 to examine solutions to key challenges, including NCAA authority; name, image and likeness issues (NIL); collective bargaining; and governance concerns.
President Donald Trump holds a football presented to him during a ceremony to present the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy to the US Naval Academy football team, the Navy Midshipmen, in the East Room of the White House on April 15, 2025 in Washington, D.C. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
The meeting Friday will include big names like Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Adam Silver and Tiger Woods. Trump has been adamant about “saving college sports,” even signing an executive order setting new restrictions on payments to college athletes back in July.
However, ESPN college analyst Paul Finebaum, who has previously hinted at a congressional run as a Republican, remains a bit skeptical.
“The easiest thing, guys, is just to say this is ridiculous,” Finebaum said to Greg McElroy and Cole Cubelic on WJOX. “And I read the other day, ‘Why is Nick Saban going?’ Why is anybody going? The bottom line is this. If something doesn’t happen very quickly, and I mean in the next short period of time, we’re talking about weeks, not years, then this thing could blow up.
“However it came about, I’m in favor of. The question now becomes, with some of the most powerful people in Washington in the same room, including the most powerful person in the country, can anything get done, or will it be a circus? Will it be just another show?”
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with former Alabama Crimson Tide football coach Nick Saban as Trump takes the stage to address graduating students at Coleman Coliseum at the University of Alabama on May 01, 2025 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Trump’s order prohibits athletes from receiving pay-to-play payments from third-party sources. However, the order did not impose any restrictions on NIL payments to college athletes by third-party sources.
A House vote on the SCORE Act (Student Compensation and Opportunity through Rights and Endorsements), which would regulate name, image, and likeness deals, was canceled shortly before it was set to be brought to the floor in December.
The White House endorsed the act, but three Republicans, Byron Donalds, Fla., Scott Perry, Pa., and Chip Roy, Texas, voted with Democrats not to bring the act to the floor. Democrats have largely opposed the bill, urging members of the House to vote “no.”
President Donald Trump looks on before the college football game between the US Army and Navy at the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland, on Dec. 13, 2025. (Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP via Getty Images)
The SCORE Act would give the NCAA a limited antitrust exemption in hopes of protecting the NCAA from potential lawsuits over eligibility rules and would prohibit athletes from becoming employees of their schools. It prohibits schools from using student fees to fund NIL payments.
Fox News’ Chantz Martin and Ryan Gaydos contributed to this report.
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Sports
Lakers hope comeback win over Pelicans gives the team a timely boost
Lakers center Jaxson Hayes falls after Pelicans forward Zion Williamson commits an offensive foul as Lakers guard Austin Reaves watches at at Crypto.com Arena on Tuesday.
(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times)
Matching the physicality of Pelicans forwards Zion Williamson and Saddiq Bey was on the top of the Lakers’ scouting report. But the task is easier said than done.
Reaves admitted to being “terrified” of stepping in front of a driving Williamson to draw a charge. The 6-foot-6, 284-pound Pelicans forward is just as physical as he is athletic, creating a fearsome combination for defenders. Healthy for the first time in two seasons, Williamson led the Pelicans with 24 points on 10-for-18 shooting.
“We haven’t seen somebody like that in a long time, right?” Smart said. “[With] his ability. But [being] willing to put your body there, take a charge, take an elbow to the face, box him out, go vertical, is definitely something that you got to be willing to do, and not everybody’s willing to do it. And that’s the difference in the game.”
Center Jaxson Hayes was up to the task. He absorbed a Williamson elbow in the fourth quarter and ended up in the front row of the stands holding his jaw. But the knock was worth it for the offensive foul that helped maintain the Lakers’ 14-0 run that quickly erased the Pelicans’ eight-point lead. The scoring streak started immediately after Hayes subbed back into the game with 7:20 remaining after he scored on his first possession, cutting to the basket for a dunk off an assist from Doncic.
Hayes had eight points, six rebounds and two blocks, playing nearly 23 minutes off the bench in his biggest workload as a substitute since Jan. 20 against Denver. After playing with Hayes in New Orleans during the center’s first two years in the league, Redick lauded the seven-year pro’s improvement. Hayes is sinking touch shots around the rim now. He has improved his decision making in the pocket. After getting benched for his defensive lapses last season, Hayes has impressed coaches with his consistent ability to stay vertical while protecting the rim. And he still brings the same trademark athleticism that made him the eighth overall pick in 2019.
“He consistently injects energy into the group when he runs the floor, blocks a shot, or he gets those dunks,” Redick said.
Sports
Eileen Gu reflects on decision to leave Team USA for China: ‘A lot of people just don’t understand’
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Eileen Gu released a statement on social media Monday, reflecting on her controversial decision to compete for Team China despite being born and raised in the U.S.
Gu’s statement tied the decision back to her passion for promoting women’s sports, and encouraging young girls to pursue sports.
“I gave my first speech on women in sports and title IX when I was 11 years old. I talked about being the only girl on my ski team, and, despite attending an all-girls’ school from Monday through Friday, becoming best friends with my teammates on the weekends through the common language of sport,” Gu wrote on Instagram.
Silver medalist Eileen Gu of China poses for photos after the awarding ceremony of the freestyle skiing women’s freeski big air event at the Milan-Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games in Livigno, Italy, Feb. 16, 2026. (Photo by Wang Peng/Xinhua via Getty Images) (Wang Peng/Xinhua via Getty Images)
“At the same time, I was made painfully aware of the lack of representation – at age 9, I felt that I was somehow representing all women every time I stepped in the terrain park. Landing tricks was about more than progression … it was about disproving the derisive implication of what it meant to ‘ski like a girl.’”
Gu went on to express gratitude for the one season in which she did compete for the U.S.
“When I was 15, I announced my decision to compete for China. At the time, I had spent one season on the US team, and had been lucky enough to meet my heroes in person. I am forever grateful for that season, and continue to maintain a close relationship with the team. I had spent every summer in China since I was 8 setting up summer camps on trampoline and dry slope for kids and adults, ranging from 7 to 47 years old, so I knew the industry was tiny. I felt like I knew everyone,” she added.
“Skiing for Team China meant the opportunity to uplift others through the universal culture of sport, and to introduce freeskiing to hundreds of millions of people who had never heard of it, especially with the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics around the corner.”
Gu’s statement concluded by acknowledging that certain people “don’t understand” her decision to compete for China over the U.S., while insisting the choice maximized the impact she would have.
“I can look back now, at 22, and tell 12 year old Eileen that there are now terrain parks full of little girls, who will never doubt their place in the sport. I can tell 15 year old me that there are now millions of girls who have started skiing since then, in China and worldwide,” Gu wrote.
“A lot of people won’t understand or believe that I made a decision to create the greatest amount of positive impact on the world stage that I could, at this age, given my interests and passions. Three golds and six medals later, I can confidently say was once a dream is now a reality.”
Gu has become a target for global criticism this Olympics for her decision to represent China while remaining silent on the country’s alleged human rights abuses.
In an interview with Time magazine, Gu was asked her thoughts on China’s alleged persecution of Uyghurs and other Turkic Muslim minorities in Xinjiang.
“I haven’t done the research. I don’t think it’s my business. I’m not going to make big claims on my social media,” Gu answered.
“I’m just more of a skeptic when it comes to data in general. … So, it’s not like I can read an article and be like, ‘Oh, well, this must be the truth.’ I need to have a ton of evidence. I need to maybe go to the place, maybe talk to 10 primary source people who are in a location and have experienced life there.
“Then I need to go see images. I need to listen to recordings. I need to think about how history affects it. Then I need to read books on how politics affects it. This is a lifelong search. It’s irresponsible to ask me to be the mouthpiece for any agenda.”
More controversy surrounding Gu erupted after The Wall Street Journal reported that Gu and another American-born athlete who now competes for China, were paid a combined $6.6 million by the Beijing Municipal Sports Bureau in 2025.
Gu is the highest-paid Winter Olympics athlete in the world, making an estimated $23 million in 2025 alone due to partnerships with Chinese companies, including the Bank of China and western companies.
Her alignment with China prompted criticism from many Americans this Olympics, including Vice President J.D. Vance.
“I certainly think that someone who grew up in the United States of America who benefited from our education system, from the freedoms and liberties that makes this country a great place, I would hope they want to compete with the United States of America,” Vance said in an interview on Fox News’ “The Story with Martha MacCallum.”
Later, when Gu was asked if she feels “like a bit of a punching bag for a certain strand of American politics at the moment,” she said she does.
“I do,” she said. “So many athletes compete for a different country. … People only have a problem with me doing it because they kind of lump China into this monolithic entity, and they just hate China. So, it’s not really about what they think it’s about.
“And, also, because I win. Like, if I wasn’t doing well, I think that they probably wouldn’t care as much, and that’s OK for me. People are entitled to their opinions.”
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Silver medalist Eileen Gu of China attends the awarding ceremony of the freestyle skiing women’s freeski big air event at the Milan-Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games in Livigno, Italy, Feb. 16, 2026. (Hongxiang/Xinhua via Getty Images)
Gu has claimed she was “physically assaulted” for the decision.
“The police were called. I’ve had death threats. I’ve had my dorm robbed,” Gu told The Athletic.
“I’ve gone through some things as a 22-year-old that I really think no one should ever have to endure, ever.”
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