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College Football Playoff stock watch: Why Penn State is rising, Michigan is falling

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College Football Playoff stock watch: Why Penn State is rising, Michigan is falling

We are about a quarter of the way through the college football season, and there has been no shortage of drama. Three of the 12 teams projected to make the College Football Playoff by my model in the preseason are no longer in the field, and three teams that were on the bubble have also fallen by the wayside. All of that in just four weeks.

When I wrote a stock report after Week 2, the teams that were trending up were Miami, Tennessee and USC. As it stands, Miami is the projected No. 3 seed as the team to beat in the ACC (72 percent chance to make the Playoff, 40 percent chance to win the ACC). Tennessee is coming off a road win at Oklahoma and is slotted as the 10 seed with a 73 percent chance to make the field. And despite a road loss to Michigan, USC is hanging on to a spot in the projected bracket as the 11 seed with a 45 percent chance. Miami and Tennessee have increased their projected seed since two weeks ago (up one spot each), while USC dropped one spot.

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On the other end, the three teams I wrote about who were trending down were Oregon, Notre Dame and Michigan. Oregon is still in the projected Playoff field as the No. 6 seed, and its Playoff odds have risen to 87 percent, even if its overall team rating has not increased in my rankings. Notre Dame has moved up on the bubble since two weeks ago after a crushing home defeat to Northern Illinois, but the Irish’s Playoff odds have risen only 5 percentage points to 37 percent.

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As for Michigan? Yes, the Wolverines just earned a season-saving win against USC, but I’m not sold on the Wolverines yet, and neither is my model.

Stock up

Penn State

The Nittany Lions’ Playoff odds have gone up 8 percentage points over the past two weeks to 80 percent, sixth highest in the country. More importantly, their overall team strength has gone up 2.5 points (this is compared to an average FBS team). The defense has taken some bumps and bruises but still should be a top-20 unit. The major improvement has been the offense. Penn State ranks seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense, 13th in offensive success rate and third in explosive play percentage, according to TruMedia. Sure, the Kent State game might be propping up these numbers a bit, but Penn State wiped the floor with West Virginia’s defense on the road and beat up on a solid Bowling Green team that just gave Texas A&M all it could handle in College Station.

The other thing that works out nicely for Penn State is its schedule. Penn State is projected to be favored in all but one game the rest of the year — and even in that one game at home against Ohio State, my model gives the Nittany Lions a 48 percent chance of winning. A road game at USC will be another tough task, but outside of that, the road trips to Wisconsin and Minnesota don’t look as daunting as they did at the start of the season.

My model has Penn State winning 10-plus games in 72 percent of simulations, which should get it into the Playoff.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

What I think I know about Penn State as Big Ten play starts

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Drew Allar ranks second in the FBS in pass efficiency rating. (Matthew O’Haren / Imagn Images)

Boise State

Boise State was a couple of bounces away from taking down Oregon in Eugene, but despite the early blemish, the Broncos’ Playoff odds have increased by 13 percentage points, all the way up to 36 percent from two weeks ago. Now, I must say that the Group of 5 projection could be a little wonky, as I’m not sure how the committee will view each conference. But one thing the Broncos have going for them is that Memphis (Navy) and Texas State (Arizona State) lost in the past two weeks, and neither loss will be as good as a road loss to Oregon. A win against Washington State this week, in a game in which it’s favored by around a touchdown, would be a huge boost to Boise State’s resume.

Boise State has arguably the best running back in college football in Ashton Jeanty, who could be the first running back taken in next year’s NFL Draft. He ranks first nationally in EPA per rush and third in percentage of rushes that go 20-plus yards. Even if defenses stack the box, Jeanty can burn you. If there was a Heisman Trophy given to a non-Power 4 player, Jeanty would be the favorite. And he’s the biggest reason why Boise State has the best Playoff odds in the Group of 5.

go-deeper

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Stock down

Michigan

Yes, Michigan just beat USC, but it passed for only 32 yards and won through big runs and a pick six. That’s going to be a hard recipe to sustain against quality opponents. Sure, the Alex Orji move at quarterback is best for the team, but at the end of the day, the Wolverines appear to be just a more athletic/talented version of the Iowa teams of the past few years. Can they win eight or nine games? Yes. But a Playoff run? That’s unlikely.

Michigan still has Oregon at home as well as a trip to Ohio State. Don’t sleep on road trips to Washington, Illinois and Indiana, either. My model gave Michigan just a 2 percent chance to make the Playoff last week, and that number increased to just 5 percent after the USC win. Such a slight increase paints the picture of the long-term concerns.

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It’s possible Orji allows the Wolverines’ run game to be more explosive than it was the first three weeks. Kalel Mullings seems to be their best running back, and they leaned on him late against USC. And running the ball efficiently while taking care of the football with a great defense has been successful in past years of the Big Ten. I’m just not sure it’s a recipe to become a Playoff team. With a loss already on the schedule and the tricky slate still ahead, I have had time seeing Michigan getting to double-digit wins.

go-deeper

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LSU

I expected some regression on offense after LSU lost a Heisman Trophy quarterback in Jayden Daniels along with two first-round wide receivers, but I also expected some improvement on defense. To this point, LSU just isn’t good enough on defense. It ranks 83rd in EPA per play, 74th in defensive success rate and 82nd in yards per play on first down. It’s also played a tough schedule with USC and South Carolina, and the upcoming SEC slate isn’t easy with Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The front seven was thin to begin the year and just lost star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to a season-ending injury.

My projections had LSU at 24 percent to make the Playoff two weeks ago, and that number has fallen to just 12 percent heading into Week 5. Narrowly escaping South Carolina and being tied with a bad UCLA team at home going into halftime isn’t going to give my model any confidence in LSU. Could the offense carry the Tigers for a few games? Yes, of course. I’m actually bullish on the offense for the rest of the season behind Garrett Nussmeier. Unfortunately, LSU hasn’t made the strides necessary on defense to become a Playoff contender.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

LSU star LB Harold Perkins out for season with torn ACL: Source

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(Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

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Disney, ESPN to air Mickey Mouse alt-cast for Knicks-Spurs on Christmas

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Disney, ESPN to air Mickey Mouse alt-cast for Knicks-Spurs on Christmas

It will be a Mickey Mouse production for the NBA on ESPN.

On Christmas Day, the network and the league will continue the trend of presenting alternative broadcasts when the New York Knicks face the San Antonio Spurs at noon, Disney announced Wednesday.

While the traditional broadcast will be available on places like ESPN and ABC, ESPN2 will have what is being dubbed as “Dunk The Halls,” the first animated game in NBA history. Both versions will be available on the streaming services, ESPN+ and Disney+.

The presentation will utilize Sony’s “Beyond Sports Technology” by recreating the game action of stars like Victor Wembanyama and Jalen Brunson on Magic Kingdom’s “Main Street USA.” Mickey and Minnie Mouse, Donald Duck, Pluto, Goofy and Chip and Dale will cheer on the players and deliver pretend pre-game and half-time speeches.

At intermission, the Disney characters will compete in a slam dunk contest.

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After a long night of work, Santa’s helpers have been contracted to operate the cameras, while Santa, himself, will work ESPN’s “SkyCam” during the game.

Drew Carter, Monica McNutt and sideline reporter Daisy Duck will be the trio on the broadcast. The traditional telecast will feature Ryan Ruocco and Corey Alexander with Cassidy Hubbarth on the sideline.

ESPN said in its release that fans will also find out if snow will fall on “Main Street,” though it is doubtful any betting sites will take wagers (a white Christmas is a strong favorite, nonetheless). If that is not enough to entice viewers, Goofy will see how many churros he can eat.

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The telecast continues the trend of alternative broadcasts. In 2021, the NBA and ESPN teamed up with Disney Marvel characters for an alt-cast.

Required reading

(Photo: Courtesy of ESPN)

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Legendary UConn coach Geno Auriemma sets NCAA all-time wins record

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Legendary UConn coach Geno Auriemma sets NCAA all-time wins record

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Legendary UConn women’s basketball head coach Geno Auriemma made history Wednesday night with the Huskies’ victory over Fairleigh Dickinson University. 

Auriemma became the all-time wins leader in college basketball history for both men and women, collecting his 1,217th victory to pass Tara VanDerveer, the legendary Stanford Cardinal coach. 

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More than 60 former players were at Gampel Pavilion as part of a sellout crowd to watch the Huskies take down the Knights, 85-41. Despite UConn being a heavy favorite in this matchup, Auriemma went about coaching like the 1,216 wins before it, until the final buzzer sounded.

Connecticut Huskies head coach Geno Auriemma reacts in the first quarter against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the semifinals of the Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. (Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports)

The game was also a celebration of Auriemma and associate head coach Chris Dailey’s 40th season leading the Huskies. It was part of a celebration that included a goat petting zoo near the arena during a fan fest, a reference to Auriemma being the greatest of all-time. 

While the night was meant to honor Auriemma and Dailey, the win to set the new record led to reflection on just how dominant his program has been at UConn all these years. 

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GENO AURIEMMA TIES DIVISION I COACHING RECORD AS NO. 2 UCONN BEATS NO. 14 UNC 69-58

The Huskies are 11-time national champions with 23 Final Four appearances, including 15 in the last 16 years. 

Auriemma’s .882 win percentage for his career remains an NCAA record as well. 

“At the beginning, we really just had our vision and each other to say, ‘This is what we’re going to do,’” Dailey said Tuesday, via ESPN. “And we were able to convince enough people to believe that same dream. And, eventually, 40 years later, a lot more has happened than what we ever thought would have.”

Bueckers and Geno

Paige Bueckers and head coach Geno Auriemma of the Connecticut Huskies during the first half against the Duke Blue Devils in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament at Moda Center March 30, 2024, in Portland, Ore. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

Auriemma has only coached at one school, building his squad in Storrs to the point it was nationally recognized as a powerhouse for decades. After the team’s first national title under Auriemma in 1995, UConn was, and still remains, a powerhouse every season. 

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Auriemma, 70, still wants to coach the Huskies despite admitting to feeling at times it was the right move to walk away. 

“As long as I’m here, and I walk in this building, and I see the players here, and I see the people that work in my little world and how we all kind of motivate each other, there’s no other place I would want to be,” he said. 

Geno Auriemma

Head coach Geno Auriemma of the Connecticut Huskies celebrates after his team’s 80-73 win against the USC Trojans in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament at Moda Center April 1, 2024, in Portland, Ore. (Soobum Im/Getty Images)

UConn remains unbeaten at 4-0 to start the 2024-25 campaign. 

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Sebastian Mack makes his presence felt in UCLA's win over Idaho State

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Sebastian Mack makes his presence felt in UCLA's win over Idaho State

In case anyone had forgotten about him amid all the newcomers dotting UCLA’s roster, Sebastian Mack provided a reminder with every foray toward the basket Wednesday night.

He’s still here. Dismiss him at your own risk.

On a night that the frontcourt duo of Tyler Bilodeau and Eric Dailey Jr. continued to provide a smorgasbord of offense for the Bruins, Mack was their leading scorer on the way to an 84-70 victory over Idaho State at Pauley Pavilion.

Mack contributed 21 points off the bench on the strength of 15 free throws for the Bruins (4-1), who have won three consecutive games in convincing fashion since their setback against New Mexico earlier this month.

Meanwhile, Bilodeau and Dailey continued to carry a group of starters that hasn’t gotten much offensive production from the guards. It was a similar story Wednesday, with Kobe Johnson, Lazar Stefanovic and Skyy Clark combining for just 10 points.

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Bilodeau single-handedly doubled that output with 20 points on eight-for-14 shooting, including four of four from three-point range for a team that made nine of 14 shots from beyond the arc. Dailey added 16 points while making seven of nine shots to go with seven rebounds.

Their efficiency prevented defenders from sagging off to contest UCLA’s most prolific offensive weapon, who continually drove the open lanes that invited a Mack attack. The Bengals kept fouling the sophomore guard and sending him to the free-throw line, where he made 15 of 16 attempts.

Mack’s presence alone could be considered a victory for the Bruins. He could have joined several teammates who departed in the offseason amid the influx of six transfers. He stuck it out, heeding his coach’s advice.

UCLA forward Tyler Bilodeau dribbles with his back to the basket, working to get an open shot against Idaho State Wednesday at Pauley Pavilion.

(Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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“The last thing you should do,” Mick Cronin said, repeating what he told Mack. “You should stay here, let me coach the hell out of you and get everything out of you that you need to get out of you so you can become who you want to become. Choose hard. It works for people. Choose hard. Don’t choose easy.”

Mack said he trusted his coach’s promise to make him a more complete player.

“Just be able to guard, shoot, score whenever I look at my teammates,” Mack said of the things he’s working on, “just all around, pretty much.”

Mack displayed unselfishness in the first half with a lob to forward William Kyle III for a thunderous dunk that enlivened the crowd.

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After using a small lineup in the season’s early going, Cronin said he would eventually like to play the 6-foot-9 Kyle alongside the 6-foot-9 Bilodeau and 6-foot-8 Dailey to combat the larger bodies he expects to face in the Big Ten.

“When those bigger teams come,” Bilodeau said, “we’re definitely going to need the size and the strength in there.”

One possible snag is the lack of a reliable backup big man. Cronin hasn’t been happy with the performance of center Aday Mara, who had two turnovers in as many minutes Wednesday.

“Aday’s got to play better,” Cronin said, “so then we’ve got a sub.”

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Since infuriating their coach with a lack of toughness against New Mexico, the Bruins have pleased him with improved competitiveness and defensive intensity.

Next on Cronin’s to-do list? Get better at rebounding, reducing turnovers and making shots.

There was some progress Wednesday in that the Bruins made 27 of 47 shots (a season-high 57.4%) and committed a reasonable 11 turnovers. But they gave up 10 offensive rebounds after putting a lid on the basket in practice this week to emphasize boxing out.

UCLA also exhibited some defensive slippage, particularly over the final 10 minutes, after holding its three previous opponents to 50 points or fewer at home this season.

Idaho State may not have much name recognition, but the Bengals have a proud history against UCLA. Some might say they ended the Bruins basketball dynasty with a 76-75 upset over a Marques Johnson-led team in the second round of the 1977 NCAA tournament.

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John Wooden was already gone, you say? True, but the Bruins had extended their run of Final Fours the year after he retired in 1975, only for the team’s streak of 10 consecutive trips to college basketball’s biggest stage to end thanks to a flurry of points and rebounds from Idaho State’s Steve Hayes.

Senior forward Isaiah Griffin looked like he might reprise that role while scoring Idaho State’s first 12 points Wednesday. At that point, the Bengals (2-4) held a 12-10 lead and appeared like they might have a chance for a breakthrough after single-digit losses to Arizona State, USC and Cal State Fullerton.

But Bilodeau and Dailey countered with back-to-back three-pointers to spark a 10-0 run, and Mack kept attacking.

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