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West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh score prediction by expert college football model

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West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh score prediction by expert college football model


This weekend brings us the 107th version of the Backyard Brawl as Pittsburgh looks to improve on its 2-0 start against West Virginia in college football’s Week 3 action on Saturday.

Pitt lost this game a year ago and slumped to a 3-9 mark, the worst record in head coach Pat Narduzzi’s time with the school, but quarterback Eli Holstein appears to have rejuvenated this offense so far, ranking 12th nationally in passing output and 28th in scoring offense.

West Virginia recovered from its season-opening loss to Penn State by routing Albany the week after and comes into this matchup as the slight favorite, needing to beef up an attack that ranks 74th nationally in scoring and 88th in passing production.

What do the analytics say about the matchup? Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Pittsburgh and West Virginia compare in this Week 3 college football game.

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The simulations currently favor the road team in this game, but by a very slim margin.

SP+ predicts that West Virginia will defeat Pittsburgh by a projected score of 30 to 27 and to win the game by an expected 3.1 points overall.

The model gives the Mountaineers a slight 58 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a 51.6 win percentage.

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West Virginia is a 1.5 point favorite against Pittsburgh, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 63.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for West Virginia at -126 to win outright and for Pittsburgh at +105.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take …

Other analytical models take a different view and favor the Panthers over the Mountaineers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

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Pittsburgh is projected to win the game outright in 52.6 percent of the computer’s updated simulations, while West Virginia comes out the winner in the remaining 47.4 percent of sims.

The index forecasts a very close game, but sides with West Virginia to be 0.7 points better than Pittsburgh on the same field, not enough to cover this spread.

West Virginia will win 5.8 games this season and sits sixth from the bottom among Big 12 teams with a 2.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

The models project Pittsburgh will win 6.8 games and have a 3.4 percent shot at the 12-team playoff, ranking ninth in the ACC in that category.

When: Sat., Sept. 14
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN2 network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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West Virginia

Financial commitment there for West Virginia coaching staff

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Financial commitment there for West Virginia coaching staff


West Virginia head coach Rich Rodriguez has at least $5 million that he can dedicate to his on-the-field coaching staff in each year of his five-year contract.

There is at least another $2,500,000 tied up in support staff for every year of the agreement.

While the assistant coaches and support staff members are now starting to be announced which means contract terms are not far behind we’re getting an idea of just where the group will fall in terms of that total.

The Mountaineers made a heavy financial commitment to secure the services of Oklahoma co-defensive coordinator Zac Alley with a $1,500,000 contract that extends until Feb. 28, 2028.

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That checks out with the sentiments that Rodriguez shared in his introductory press conference where he made it clear that he had the financial means to secure a top-level coordinator on that side of the ball.

And Alley is certainly that as he served as the Sooners play caller last year. The unit finished No. 3 ranking in defensive touchdowns, No. 5 in fumbles recovered, No. 10 in team tackles for loss, No. 11 in first-down defense, No. 19 in total defense, No. 23 in rushing defense, No. 25 in sacks and No. 30 in scoring defense.

As for other known commitments, West Virginia will pay $725,000 for running backs coach Chad Scott and $225,000 for inside wide receivers coach Blaine Stewart. Those two financial commitments were already in place under previously signed contracts when the pair worked for former head coach Neal Brown.

But the decision to re-hire the pair in essence will save the school money which they would have been owed, and the school would have had to hire replacements had they not been retained.

Both are under contract until 2026.

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Other known contract details obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request include offensive line coach Jack Bicknell Jr at $450,000, wide receivers coach Ryan Garrett at $250,000, defensive line coach William Green at $250,000, and tight ends coach Michael Nysewander at $225,000.

Each is under contract through Feb. 28, 2026.

That makes the total $3,625,000 with just seven of the coaches in place. The Mountaineers also have announced several others that haven’t had contract details released yet such as cornerbacks coach Rod West, bandits coach Jeff Casteel, quarterbacks coach Rhett Rodriguez, special teams coordinator Pat Kirkland, assistant running backs coach Noel Devine and assistant special teams coordinator Chris Hearing for example.

That also doesn’t include others who are expected to be in roles but have yet to be announced such as offensive assistant Travis Trickett, safeties coach Gabe Franklin, nickels/sam coach Henry Weinreich, assistant offensive line coach Derek Dressler, and a number of others on the coaching staff.

It’s clear that West Virginia is making a commitment to staffing under Rodriguez and the “at least,” in the assistant salary pool is likely going to be the floor.

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Iowa State wrestling remains perfect in league, takes down West Virginia

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Iowa State wrestling remains perfect in league, takes down West Virginia


The Iowa State wrestling team handled West Virginia on Wednesday night in Big 12 action, earning key bonus points to claim the dual, 24-18 in Morgantown, West Virginia.

Both teams scored five match victories each, but it was the 13th-ranked Cyclones (5-3, 2-0) who earned two pins and a technical fall to get by the Mountaineers (7-2, 1-2).

Paniro Johnson and Cody Chittum each had a fall, Evan Frost earned a technical fall and Evan Bockman a major decision as Iowa State held a 17-12 edge in takedowns. 

Frost opened the dual at 133 pounds, as the eighth-ranked grappler downed Tommy Maddox, 20-3 in 5:29. Jacob Frost followed with a decision before Johnson and Chittum claimed falls to give the Cyclones a huge advantage on the scoreboard.

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Jacob Frost, ranked 15th at 141, earned a key win in terms of seeding purposes in the postseason by besting No. 29 Jordan Titus. Chittum is ranked eighth at 157 pounds.

West Virginia got a win by No. 3 Peyton Hall over Aiden Riggins by major decision and another major decision from Brody Conley before Bockman earned a win in a ranked battle.

Bockman, ranked 12th at 184 pounds, downed No. 16 Dennis Robin, 9-1. 

From there, West Virginia scored the last three matches, as Ian Bush, Michael Wolfgram and Jeff Strickenberger all won by decision. Iowa State’s Daniel Herrera, ranked 26th at 285, and Kysen Terukina, ranked 19th at 285, were tipped in close matches. 

The Cyclones return to the mats on Saturday when they meet Rider and Bucknell at the Virginia Duals. 

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133: #8 Evan Frost (ISU) TF Tommy Maddox (WVU), 20-3 (5:29)

141: #15 Jacob Frost (ISU) dec. #29 Jordan Titus (WVU), 9-6

149: Paniro Johnson (ISU) WBF Sam Hillegas (WVU), 5:48

157: #8 Cody Chittum (ISU) WBF Sasha Gavronsky (WVU), 3:41

165: #3 Peyton Hall (WVU) Maj. Dec. Aiden Riggins (ISU), 16-6

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174: #28 Brody Conley (WVU) Maj. Dec. MJ Gaitan (ISU), 14-2

184: #12 Evan Bockman (ISU) Maj. Dec. #16 Dennis Robin (WVU), 9-1

197: Ian Bush (WVU) Maj. Dec. Nate Schon (ISU), 13-2

285: Michael Wolfgram (WVU) dec. #26 Daniel Herrera (ISU), 5-3

125: Jett Strickenberger (WVU) dec. #19 Kysen Terukina (ISU), 4-1

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‘It’s been a real honor flying with you’: Justice gives farewell speech to WV lawmakers • West Virginia Watch

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‘It’s been a real honor flying with you’: Justice gives farewell speech to WV lawmakers • West Virginia Watch


Speaking to state lawmakers Wednesday for a final time before he assumes a new role in the U.S. Senate, West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice touted his administration’s accomplishments in education, roads and tourism, among others, and promised to continue the nation’s fossil fuel industry. 

“All the surpluses, all the gains, all the tourism, all the roads, all the, all the. You know what we did, we did this together,” Justice told lawmakers. “And you should be very proud. Every last one of all of y’all. Every single last one of you. You restored and gave West Virginia pride and hope. You did. You should never forget that.”

Repeating a saying from his father, Justice told lawmakers it has been “a real honor flying with you. It really has. I absolutely would wish you the best in every way.”

Justice gave his comments before a joint session of the state Legislature in the House of Delegates following swearing-in ceremonies by both bodies. 

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Justice, who served two terms as the state’s chief executive, was elected in November to the U.S. Senate. He’ll be sworn into the new role Jan. 13, the day of Governor-elect Patrick Morrisey’s inauguration. 

Justice spoke of turning the state’s deficits into surpluses and touted his $2.8 billion infrastructure program, “Roads to Prosperity,” which rebuilt and maintained roads and bridges across the state.

He admonished the state to always celebrate Oct. 7, the anniversary of when voters approved the issuance of $1.6 billion for the program, as a day the state “pivoted and took off.” 

“Don’t ever, ever not celebrate Oct. 7, because on that day, this whole state took a big turn of where we had been and where we had been for decades,” he said. “Absolutely right then and there, we took off.”

Justice also touted cutting taxes “over and over” and encouraged lawmakers to continue to work toward eliminating the state’s income tax. Lawmakers last fall approved a bill that cut the tax by 2%, eliminating about $46 million a year in state revenue. The governor had initially asked the Legislature to cut the tax by 5%, but he amended his request. 

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“I would tell you, don’t lose the mission,” he said. “The faster you can get rid of your personal income tax in West Virginia, this place will flood with people and opportunity over and over and over. You absolutely please keep your mission.”

Justice was first elected West Virginia’s governor in 2016 as a Democrat. The next year, while on stage in Huntington with his friend, then and president-elect Donald Trump, Justice announced he would register as a Republican and leave the Democratic Party. 

Justice said the state has “done a bunch of really good stuff” for education in the state in his time as governor, including giving families the choice of private schooling and homeschooling through the state’s education savings account program Hope Scholarship and expanding the Community In Schools and therapy dog programs.

“We have flipped the script in many ways with our schools, but we got a lot more to do,” he said. “There’s no question we got a lot more to do, and we can improve over and over and over. But the things we’ve done as far as choice, the things we’ve done, as far as the [School Building Authority] the things we have absolutely been able to do because of the fact that we’re economically so sound, it’s unbelievable. We’ve done good stuff, and you should really be proud of that.”

Justice said tourists spent $9 billion in West Virginia in 2024 as the state “became frogs that were proud of our own pond.”

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He also bragged that the state “stood rock solid for life.” In 2022, after the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe V. Wade, lawmakers approved an abortion ban with narrow exceptions. He touted the state’s support of guns, appointment of conservative judges and “not turning a blind eye to the border crisis.”

Justice repeated praise for Trump, saying that lawmakers, for the most part, should “love and respect him,” and said that energy is important for the country’s future. 

Justice, whose family owns several coal companies, has been appointed to the Senate’s committee on Energy and Natural Resources, among others. Justice said energy will be the key to growing the country’s revenue. He said he supports Trump’s plan to “take a meat ax” to spending waste in Washington. 

“The only way civilization has gone forward is that we’re standing and sitting on natural gas reserves, coal reserves,” Justice said. “Absolutely all the alternatives, whether they be solar or wind or whatever, I say, embrace them all, but for God’s sakes a living, don’t be dumb enough to absolutely turn your back on our fossil fuels. Our fossil fuels are critical to us like you can’t imagine.”

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