Winning 10+ games in year one of Rich Rodriguez’s return to West Virginia is a tall task, especially given the schedule the Mountaineers have. Unfortunately, that’s likely the ballpark WVU needs to be in if they want an at-large bid in the College Football Playoff, assuming they don’t win the Big 12.

The chances of that happening? Slim to none, according to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI).

West Virginia has just a 0.8% chance of making the playoffs, which is toward the bottom among Power Four teams. Only Mississippi State, Arizona, Stanford, Syracuse, Houston, Northwestern, Wake Forest, and Purdue have worse odds of making it.

Anyone who is expecting WVU to crash the college football playoff party this season may want to rethink their assessment of the team. Yes, Curt Cignetti did it in year one at Indiana a year ago, but he had the benefit of playing just one ranked opponent all season. Rich Rod won’t get that lucky.

Rodriguez knows it’ll be an uphill battle in 2025, but that doesn’t mean he’s altered his main goals.

“If we’re not in contention in November for the conference championship, then I think it’s not a good year,” he told the ESPN College GameDay crew. “Every year, our first goal is to win the league. Now, if you win the league, you’re going to be in the playoff. I saw Arizona State do it last year, and I know it was in Kenny (Dillingham’s) second year, but they went from down the bottom to the top. Now, can we do that in one year, not two years? That’s a harder ask to do, but certainly that’ll be our focus.”

MORE STORIES FROM WEST VIRGINIA ON SI

Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark Reacts to Game-Changing NCAA Settlement

College Sports Just Changed Forever: Direct Pay, NIL Rules, Roster Limits, and a Cap

Steve Sabins Calls Bullpen Near Clemson’s ‘Drunk Frat Guys’ a ‘Bogus’ Setup

Steve Sabins Reveals West Virginia’s Starting Pitcher for Game 1 vs. LSU