A warm end to the weekend will lead to severe weather threats on Monday, with storms, wind, tornadoes and even potentially some snow further north.

WASHINGTON – Less than a week removed from Washington, D.C.’s largest 24-hour temperature drop on record, more severe weather is expected in the DMV Monday, with threats of severe thunderstorms and even tornadoes.

Thunderstorm, tornado risk Monday

The Storm Prediction Center placed the DC region in an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday, March 16. A rare extended outlook for our region.

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What we know:

The FOX 5 Weather Team is monitoring the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across the DC region on Monday, March 16, as a powerful storm system moves east toward the Mid-Atlantic.

On Friday, the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center placed much of the Mid-Atlantic region into a rare “enhanced risk” zone for severe weather on Monday: a three out of five on their risk scale. On Saturday, the NWS said it hasn’t ruled out the possibility of bumping the risk level up to a 4 out of 5 as we approach Monday, particularly from South Carolina to Maryland.

Those areas are where, the NWS says, there is the highest potential Monday for “strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds… specifically in the late morning to afternoon.”

Monday rain timeline: morning rain, afternoon storms

The “FoxModel” showing the threat for supercell thunderstorms in the DC region on Monday afternoon, March 16.

Timeline:

Current projections suggest rain starting Monday morning, with greater concern for stronger storms later in the day, especially Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a strong cold front approaches the region.

That timing could bring storms through the area during the evening commute, potentially slowing travel.

Damaging winds the biggest threat

Why you should care:

If the storms can strengthen, the main severe weather threat will be damaging wind gusts that could potentially exceed 60 mph. 

There is concern that wind damage from Monday’s storms could be more widespread than what the region saw this past Wednesday. That’s because of an elevated risk of a squall line, a line of gusty thunderstorms which would have the potential for more widespread damage than more isolated storm cells.

Other possible impacts include:

• Isolated tornadoes
• Frequent lightning
• Heavy downpours that could briefly reduce visibility

Even before the storm gets here, gusty winds could pick up Monday as the system approaches, increasing the risk of falling tree limbs and power outages.

Why are forecasters watching this system?

Dig deeper:

The setup of this system includes several ingredients that can support stronger storms in the Mid-Atlantic:

• Warm, moist air surging north ahead of the cold front
• Strong winds in the upper atmosphere
• A dynamic storm system moving across the eastern U.S.

When these things overlap, thunderstorms can organize into lines capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

Forecast uncertainty

What we don’t know:

While this system has the potential to bring damaging storms across the region, there are still some potential factors that could limit their severity in the DC metro area.

Early clouds and rain could reduce instability, making it harder for storms to intensify. The strongest severe weather could also stay south of the region, closer to the Carolinas and central Virginia.

After the storms

A strong trough associated with a late-season polar vortex in Canada will bring colder weather back to the D.C. region for the middle of next week.

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What’s next:

Behind the cold front, much cooler and breezy conditions are expected to move into the region on Monday night into Tuesday, bringing a noticeable drop in temperatures after the storm system passes. 

St. Patrick’s Day on Tuesday will feel much more like winter than spring, with many suburbs likely struggling to make it out of the 30s most of the day. Winds will likely remain quite blustery as well.

Transportation Secretary attributed the smell that prompted the shutdown to an overheated circuit board that has since been replaced.

Three Washington, D.C.-area airports have reopened after a shutdown prompted by an overheated circuit board that created a troublesome “strong odor,” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced late on March 13.

“The ground stop is over and operations have resumed,” Duffy said in a statement about four hours after announcing the shutdown. “Firefighters from Fauquier County and Prince William County confirm there is no danger to air traffic controllers, and they are returning to the Potomac TRACON. The source of the strong odor was traced to a circuit board that overheated, and it was replaced.”

TRACON stands for Terminal Radar Approach Control, a U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) facility where controllers manage aircraft within a 30 to 50-mile radius of an airport. The Potomac TRACON facility is in Northern Virginia.

The brief ground stop impacted the three major airports surrounding the nation’s capital: Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, Washington Dulles International Airport and Baltimore-Washington International Airport. Richmond International Airport was also shut down. 

Duffy announced the closures around 5:20 p.m. local time in a statement suggesting the strange smell put a halt to flights.

The Federal Aviation Administration “is working to address the source of a strong odor coming from Potomac TRACON that is impacting operations at the three airports,” said Duffy, without addressing why the Richmond airport was also included.

Airports involved in ground stops warned travelers to “expect residual delays” as a result.

“Airlines are once again resuming regular operations and preparing departures. Expect residual delays this evening,” Baltimore-Washington airport officials said in a statement. “We appreciate the patience of passengers impacted by the delays.”

Officials at Reagan told flyers to expect “significant delays” for the rest of Friday evening.

The series of shutdowns around Washington come as there are increased fears of potential terrorist attacks amid the war on Iran and amid a partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security. 

On March 12, a man who lost family in Lebanon to bombings amid the war attempted to carry out a massive attack on a synagogue in Michigan. Temple security fatally shot the man after he rammed his car into the building.