Senator Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat, said on Sunday that his state’s gubernatorial race this fall will be the first “bellwether” test for the new Trump administration and a measure of a “Democratic comeback.”

Newsweek has reached out to the communications teams at the Democratic and Republican national committees for comment via email on Sunday.

Why It Matters

Virginia and New Jersey are the only states holding gubernatorial races this year and will be the first two major state elections held after President Donald Trump’s second term.

Virginia’s election may be seen as a “bellwether,” signaling political trends and voter sentiment. For Republicans, the elections will be a test of whether they can retain some of the voters they won back in 2024. Meanwhile, it will also be a key gauge for Democrats’ messaging as they seek to regain ground over the next few years.

What To Know

On Sunday, Kaine told CNN’s State of the Union co-host Jake Tapper that Virginia’s upcoming gubernatorial race “will be the first bellwether test of a Democratic comeback and I’m feeling really, really good about that right now.”

His comments came after Tapper asked Kaine about the state of the Democratic Party and politics in Kaine’s home state, to which the senator said: “In Virginia, we have gone from one of the most ruby red states in the country to now having put electoral votes behind Democrats five elections in a row. I just won my reelection by a sizable margin against Donald Trump’s handpicked Republican opponent.” Kaine won a third term last November, beating out Trump-endorsed challenger Hung Cao.

Virginia’s gubernatorial elections tend to sway based on the party in the White House, with Democrats typically winning when a Republican is in office. Republican Glenn Youngkin became governor in 2021 under President Joe Biden, and Democrat Ralph Northam won during Trump’s first presidency.

Kaine said on Sunday that Youngkin won the race “by 1.8 percent—the last two Republicans that won the governorship in Virginia won by comfortable double digits. Our governor is Republican, he ran during a very good year to be a Republican, and he won barely.”

Republican governors Bob McDonnell and Jim Gilmore won their respective races by over 17 percent margin and 13 percent margin.

Youngkin is term limited at the end of the year, so the race will be an open contest that could serve as a test of sentiment towards Trump and the Democratic Party. On Saturday, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) elected Ken Martin as its new chairperson.

Kaine, who served as Hillary Clinton’s running mate against Trump in the 2016 presidential election, said that he feels “really good about our chances” in the gubernatorial race, adding that “we just took both houses of the state legislature, we’ve got a great candidate for governor.” The Virginia State House and Senate are both controlled by slim Democratic majorities.

Who Are Virginia’s Gubernatorial Candidates?

While the party primaries on June 17 will determine the nominees, each party appears to have an early favorite: former Democratic U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. If either of them wins, they would become the state’s first female governor.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 1,000 registered Virginia voters conducted from January 6 to 8 found Spanberger edging 1 percentage point ahead of Earle-Sears, 42 to 41 percent. The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, found 13 percent of voters were undecided and 4 percent were supporting someone else.

Newsweek reached out to Spanberger and Earle-Sears for comment via email on Sunday.

Currently, no other Democrats have publicly announced their campaigns, though Representative Bobby Scott has not ruled out a run, The Virginia Pilot reported in January. Former gubernatorial candidate Merle Rutledge is also running in the GOP primary, but Earle-Sears is viewed as the party’s frontrunner.

What People Are Saying

John Feehery, partner at EFB Advocacy, previously told Newsweek in an email: “Virginia is going to be tough because it is really a blue state despite its purple state veneer, more so because Trump wants to dramatically reduce the government workforce…So I don’t think Republicans are going to do that well, but if they do, it means we had a true realignment election in 2024.”

Kevin Madden, a senior partner at Penta Group, told Newsweek in December: “Both the New Jersey and Virginia contests offer the Democrats a chance to reset their message as they look to rebuild their political coalition.”

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in part last month: “Ten months before the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election, the race is tight overall but with clear demographic differences standing out.”

What Happens Next

The deadlocked race will be determined on November 4, 2025.

The West Virginia Mountaineers (13-7, 4-5) are on the road to take on the Cincinnati Bearcats (12-8, 2-7) Sunday afternoon for the 24th meeting between the two programs.

West Virginia vs. Cincinnati Series History

Cincinnati leads 12-11

Last Meeting: UC 90, WVU 85 (March 12, 2024, in Kansas City)

When: Sunday, February 2

Location: Cincinnati, OH, Fifth Third Arena (12,012)

Tip-off: 2:00 p.m. EST

Stream: ESPN+

Announcers: Eric Rothman and Tim McCormick

Radio: Tony Caridi (PBP), Brad Howe (analyst) Mountaineer Sports Network from Learfield IMG College (Radio affiliates)

Sirius XM: 381

WVU Game Notes

– Darian DeVries was named the recipient of the Jim Phelan Award ‘Mid-Season’ honor, presented annually to the top head coach in Division I college basketball.

– Javon Small was named a Midseason Second Team All-American by The Sporting News and The Athletic.

– WVU is 271-102 in its last 373 games against unranked teams, including winners of 153 of its last 187 at the WVU Coliseum.

– WVU is 2-2 on the road in Big 12 road games (wins at Kansas and at Colorado). The Mountaineers have already matched their road win total in conference play as the previous three seasons combined (2-25).

– WVU broke into the rankings on Jan. 6 at No. 21 in the AP poll. It marked WVU’s fi rst appearance in the AP poll since Dec. 26, 2022. The Mountaineers have been ranked in at least one poll in 16 of the last 20 seasons.

– Darian DeVries, who led Drake to six consecutive 20-win seasons and has a career .724 winning percentage as a head coach, was named the 23rd head men’s basketball coach at West Virginia University on March 24, 2024.

– DeVries has a record of 163-62 (.724) in seven seasons as a head coach, including a 68-22 (.756) mark in the last two-plus seasons.

– West Virginia is currently ranked No. 44 in the latest NCAA NET rankings.

– WVU is ranked No. 48 in the latest KenPom rankings, including 22nd in defensive efficiency.

– Javon Small ranks seventh overall in KenPom Player of the Year standings.

– West Virginia is 7-2 this season when Javon Small posts 20 or more points in a game.

– In the latest NCAA stats, WVU ranks 42nd in fi eld goal percentage defense (40.4), 21st in scoring defense (64.3) and 16th in 3-point percentage defense (28.9).

– Javon Small was named Big 12 Player of the Week and Oscar Robertson National Player of the Week on Jan. 20.

– Javon Small was named Big 12 Player of the Week, NCAA March Madness Player of the Week and the Naismith Trophy National Player of the Week for Jan. 6.

– Javon Small was named co-Big 12 Player of the Week and Tucker DeVries was tabbed as the Big 12 Newcomer of the Week on Dec. 2. Both were named to the Battle 4 Atlantis All-Tournament Team.

– Small was named the Oscar Robertson National Player of the Week on Dec. 3.

– Small leads the Big 12 Conference in scoring at 19.1 points per game.

– Darian DeVries is 6-7 against ranked teams during his head coaching career. He is 4-2 at WVU with wins over No. 2 Iowa State, No. 3 Gonzaga, at No. 7 Kansas and No. 24 Arizona.

– In WVU’s four ranked wins this season, Javon Small has averaged 21.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists, while making 28 of his 32 free throw attempts.

– WVU has defeated two Top 10 teams away from home this season, marking the fi rst time that has happened in the same season since 2005-06.

– WVU’s three Top 10 wins ties for the most in a season in school history along with the 2016-17 & 2005-06 teams.

– WVU is 105-119 in Big 12 regular season games since joining the league in 2012-13.

– WVU is 618-190 (.767) all-time at the WVU Coliseum and 259-76 at the WVU Coliseum in the last 21 seasons.

– The Mountaineers have won 114 of their last 176 conference games at the WVU Coliseum.

– West Virginia returned just 2.8 percent of its scoring from last season’s team (Ofri Naveh).

– For this season, Tucker DeVries (Drake), Javon Small (Oklahoma State), Eduardo Andre (Fresno State), Joseph Yesufu (Washington State), Sencire Harris (Illinois), Amani Hansberry (Illinois) and Jayden Stone (Detroit Mercy) were added from the transfer portal.

– Entering this season, they have combined to play 806 games, made 442 starts, scored 7,606 points, grabbed 3,304 rebounds and dished out 1,248 assists.

– Darian DeVries is 73-2 when scoring 80 or more points in a game and 140-17 when scoring 70 or more.

– Darian DeVries is 117-23 when holding opponents to 69 points or less and 56-6 when holding opponents to 59 points or less.

– West Virginia was predicted 13th in the Preseason Big 12 Poll by the league’s head coaches.

– West Virginia has made at least one 3-point fi eld goal in 884 consecutive games.

– The Mountaineers have won 154 of their last 174 games when holding opponents to 69 points or less.

– WVU has won 165 of its last 188 and 221 of its last 251 games when holding opponents to less than 69 points.

– Darian DeVries is 126-15 as a head coach when leading at halftime, including an 11-1 mark at WVU.

– Darian DeVries is 76-3 as a head coach when shooting 50% or better from the fi eld.

– West Virginia is 19-10 all-time in games played on February 2.

RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — After a year of litigation, Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares and a bipartisan coalition of states reached a settlement agreement with the National Collegiate Athletic Association to guarantee student-athletes’ right to negotiate and benefit from their Name, Image and Likeness rights, or NIL.

In Jan. 2024, Miyares and other states’ attorneys generals filed an antitrust lawsuit against NCAA, which alleged that the association’s NIL restrictions “violate federal antitrust law and is harmful to current and future student-athletes.”

It came on the heels of a 2021 U.S. Supreme Court decision in which all sitting justices found that NCAA could not restrict an athlete’s NIL payments under antitrust law.

On Jan. 31, exactly a year after Miyares’ initial announcement, the Office of the Attorney General provided an update stating that a settlement agreement had been reached.

This settlement will “protect student-athletes’ Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rights during the recruiting process.” The office added that the terms of the settlement also bar the NCAA from reinstating its “NIL Recruiting Ban.”

“Today’s agreement with the NCAA is a major step toward helping student-athletes to control their own future,” Miyares said in a press release. “We look forward to a final settlement that ensures student-athletes — just like any other American — can benefit from their talent, hard work and NIL market value.”

Alongside Miyares, the involved attorneys generals were from Tennesee, New York, Florida and the District of Columbia.