West Virginia is looking to make a statement at home and to avenge last season’s loss as it welcomes Penn State in this Big Ten vs. Big 12 matchup to open the 2024 college football season on Saturday.

Expect both teams to run the ball with authority, an area of expertise for these offenses.

Penn State returns its two-headed backfield of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen to help out as quarterback Drew Allar finds his deep ball.

West Virginia gets quarterback Garrett Greene and rushers Jaheim White and CJ Donaldson back, a combination that ranked third nationally with 229 yards per game a year ago.

What do the analytics say about the matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to forecast the game as Penn State and West Virginia renew their rivalry.

The simulations favor Penn State to come away with a sizable victory in the Week 1 matchup.

SP+ predicts the Nittany Lions will defeat the Mountaineers by a projected score of 34 to 20 and to win the game by an expected 13.9 points.

The model expects Penn State to win outright with 81 percent likelihood.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Penn State is an 8.5 point favorite against West Virginia, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 51.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -310 and for West Virginia at +245.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take…

Other analytic tools also favor Penn State to come away from West Virginia with the win.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

The index favors Penn State to win the game in 77.7 percent of its simulations, while West Virginia came out the projected winner in the remaining 22.3 percent of sims.

The model projects Penn State to be 13.8 points better than West Virginia on the same field, also good enough to cover the 8.5 point spread.

When: Sat., Aug. 31
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Matthew Able, a four-star guard out of Fort Lauderdale, is one of the Hokies’ targets in the 2025 class. Able has been climbing up national ranks across the summer, picking up offers from Baylor, Michigan, and Miami over the summer.

Able holds 18 offers according to 247Sports, with the full list of schools including: Virginia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest, Northwestern, Baylor, Boston College, Michigan, Xavier, Brown, Dartmouth, Florida Gulf Coast, Georgia, Georgia State, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New Mexico State, St. John’s, and Stetson.

He recently narrowed down his list of schools, and announced that he would make his commitment decision on Friday, August 30th. His final list of schools includes Baylor, Boston College, Miami, Michigan, Northwestern, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Xavier.

Able has described his interest in Virginia Tech, declaring, “I really like Virginia Tech. I would definitely say it’s a place I can come in and get a chance to play serious minutes and it’s another really good academic school.”

He is set to make an official visit to Blacksburg on October 4th, and he has also taken visits to Northwestern on August 1st, Wake Forest on August 2nd, and Miami on August 23rd.

Able has emerged among some of the best in the 2025 recruiting class over the summer, showing out for Austin Rivers SE Elite. Able dropped 35 points and seven rebounds against Southern Assault, home of four-star Caleb Steger, who also holds an offer from Virginia Tech.

Able is a relentless shot-first scorer who is extremely confident on the floor, and has no problem putting shots up, especially in clutch moments. Able is equally competitive on the defensive side, and is a very physical player in all facets of the game. His game is really balanced, but is highlighted by his high motor and relentlessness on offense. A really good athlete who would be a solid addition to the 2025 recruiting class, could be a potential top scorer in the nation at the collegiate level.

Things to watch this week in the Big 12 Conference:

Game of the week

No. 8 Penn State at West Virginia, Saturday, noon ET (Fox)

The Mountaineers, coming off a surprising 9-4 record last year after being picked to finish last in the Big 12, are the league’s only team opening against a ranked Power Four team. West Virginia has lost its past three openers, including 38-15 at Penn State last year in the first meeting since 1992 between the schools that are only about 180 miles apart. The Nittany Lions have won 35 of the last 38 meetings since the mid-1950s.

West Virginia returns its top three rushers with running backs sophomore Jaheim White (842 yards and four TDs) and junior CJ Donaldson (798 yards and 11 TDs), and dual-threat senior quarterback Garrett Greene (772 yards rushing and 13 TDs). The Mountaineers’ 229 yards rushing per game were the most for a major conference team. Penn State was the nation’s top rushing defense allowing only 75.5 yards per game.

The undercard

TCU is the only other Big 12 team opening against a major conference opponent, Friday at Stanford, in the Cardinal’s first game as an ACC member after the dismemberment of the Pac-12. TCU went 5-7 last year. Josh Hoover is the TCU starting quarterback after averaging 339 yards passing the final six games as a redshirt freshman last year.

Colorado won at TCU last year in coach Deion Sanders’ first game with the Buffaloes while still in the Pac-12, but are now back in the Big 12 after 13 seasons away. They open Thursday night at home against FCS powerhouse North Dakota State. The Buffs ended last season with a six-game losing streak, and eight losses in nine games after a 3-0 start.

Impact players

Nick Martin and Collin Oliver are returning starting linebackers for No. 17 Oklahoma State. Martin’s 140 tackles last season in his first as a starter were the most by a Cowboys player since 1984, and the most by a Big 12 player since 2018. Oliver, a defensive end his first two seasons in Stillwater, had 45 tackles, 15 1/2 tackles for loss, and four forced fumbles last season. The Cowboys host FCS national champion South Dakota State on Saturday.

Inside the numbers

No. 21 Arizona, one of the Big 12’s four newcomers, carries a seven-game winning streak into this season. West Virginia (three games) and No. 22 Kansas (two games) are the only other Big 12 teams that finished last season with consecutive wins. … Oklahoma State’s Ollie Gordon II, the nation’s leading rusher last season, is one of eight returning Big 12 running backs that rushed for at least 1,000 yards last season, the most for any conference. … Eleven of the 16 openers in the Big 12 are against FCS teams.

From Year 1 to 2 decades

Two Big 12 teams have new coaches: Willie Fritz at Houston and Arizona’s Brent Brennan. There are also two coaches going into their 20th seasons, Kyle Whittingham for 12th-ranked and league newcomer Utah, and Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State. The only longer-tenured FBS coach is Kirk Ferentz, going into his 25th season at Iowa.