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The Virginia counties where Republicans will need to regain ground in the governor’s race: From the Politics Desk

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The Virginia counties where Republicans will need to regain ground in the governor’s race: From the Politics Desk


Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, a newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki breaks down the areas in Virginia that will be key for Republicans in next month’s gubernatorial election. Plus, Bridget Bowman speaks with Maine Gov. Janet Mills about her decision to jump into a major 2026 Senate race.

Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.

— Adam Wollner

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The Virginia counties where Republicans will need to regain ground in the governor’s race

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

When Republican Glenn Youngkin ran for governor of Virginia in 2021, Donald Trump was a former president who was keeping a relatively low profile. With minimal public attachment to Trump, Youngkin was able to turn back the clock in the state’s blue-trending suburban areas, reasserting much of the GOP’s pre-Trump strength and winning the election by 2 percentage points.

Four years later, Republicans are confronting a very different set of political conditions.

Trump, of course, is back in office, and like during his first term, he’s not that popular in Virginia. While he did make some notable gains just outside of Washington, D.C., he lost the state to Kamala Harris by 6 points last year and his approval rating sits at 41% in a recent statewide poll. And regardless of who the president is, Virginia has a history of siding against the White House party in its gubernatorial contests.

This helps explain why Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears has lagged behind Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the race to succeed Youngkin. The hope for Republicans now is that the fallout from the violent text messages from the Democratic nominee for attorney general, Jay Jones, reshapes the race in their favor.

Specifically, Earle-Sears will need traction with those anti-Trump voters who were willing to back Youngkin in 2021. This group of counties represents where Youngkin’s 2021 performance outpaced Trump’s 2024 performance by the widest margin.

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Most of these counties sit on or near the I-95 corridor. Stafford, King George and Spotsylvania counties include the far reaches of the D.C. suburbs, where growth and new development mix with open space and rural communities. Chesterfield is a massive, suburban Richmond, and nearby Hanover and Goochland counties are experiencing significant new growth, too — as are York and James City counties in the eastern Tidewater area. Rockingham County in the Shenandoah Valley retains a strong rural and small-town character, but has seen growth spurred by transplants from northern Virginia.

These counties share a common link: They have high or growing concentrations of economically upscale white voters with college degrees, a demographic group that swung hard against Trump when he emerged in 2016. But before that, these voters had been far more amenable to Republican candidates. And in 2021, with an unpopular Democrat in President Joe Biden in the White House, many of them deemed Youngkin an acceptable option.

As you can see, Youngkin swept all nine counties, but Trump fared at least 11 net points worse in all of them, and lost three of them outright (Chesterfield, James City and Stafford). Even in a Republican bastion like Rockingham, Trump last year fell markedly short of Youngkin’s 2021 level.

For Republicans, Youngkin’s performance in 2021 represents a target that they’ll need to come awfully close to if Winsome-Sears is to have a chance.

More on this fall’s elections:

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  • New Jersey: The Garden State governor’s race will test whether Republicans can mobilize Trump’s base when he isn’t on the ballot, Bridget Bowman writes.
  • New York City: New York Attorney General Letitia James delivered an impassioned speech last night in support of Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani in her first public appearance since her federal indictment, Zoë Richards reports. Mamdani also appeared publicly today with Gov. Kathy Hochul for the first time since she endorsed his candidacy last month, per Katherine Koretski and Maya Rosenberg.
  • California: Former President Barack Obama appeared in an ad to urge California voters to back a November ballot initiative to redraw the state’s congressional district lines, Rebecca Shabad notes.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills jumps into the race against GOP Sen. Susan Collins

By Bridget Bowman

Maine Gov. Janet Mills announced today that she is running for the Senate, pitching herself as the Democratic Party’s best chance to beat Republican Sen. Susan Collins next fall — and saying she does not plan to serve more than one term if elected.

“I’ve won two statewide offices, and unlike other people in the primary right now, I’ve actually won public office, won elections,” Mills said in an interview with NBC News ahead of her launch.

“And I’ve stood up to Donald Trump, and I have delivered progress for Maine people when it comes to health care, clean energy, public health, education. And I’m willing to fight for that in the U.S. Senate,” she said.

Mills, a top recruit for Senate Democrats, said Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., encouraged her to run. But she will face a fight for her party’s nomination, with multiple candidates already in the race and making their own pitches for why they are best suited to defeat Collins, the only Republican senator from a state Kamala Harris won last year.

At least two of those Democratic candidates — oyster farmer and military veteran Graham Platner and former congressional aide Jordan Wood — have pledged to remain in the race. But brewery co-founder Dan Kleban announced that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Mills, calling her “the right leader for this moment.”

Still, the contested primary also comes at a tense moment for the party, with some Democrats calling for a new generation of leaders. Mills, 77, acknowledged “age is a consideration.”

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“Honestly, I would not plan to serve for more than one term,” she said. “But this time is vital, and this moment in our history is urgent and very troublesome. And I believe I’m the most qualified person for the seat, for the campaign, because I have run two statewide elections, and I have the energy and the wherewithal to do it.”

“It’s urgent that I take this on,” Mills added later. “I don’t think I could live with myself if I did not do this.”

Read more from Bridget →


🗞️ Today’s other top stories

  • 🏅Kirk fallout: Trump posthumously awarded Charlie Kirk the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Read more →
  • ⛔ Shutdown, Day 14: Both parties are bracing for a “long conflict” as the government shutdown hits the two-week mark, making it the fifth-longest in U.S. history. Read more →
  • 🌍 Gaza ceasefire: Hamas returned the bodies of four hostages today, according to the Israel Defense Forces, as Trump warned the militant group that they must disarm. Read more →
  • ➡️ Deportation agenda: An intensive immigration operation ordered by Trump has quickly transformed Broadview, Illinois, into the beating hot center of the anti-ICE resistance. Read more →
  • ⚖️ SCOTUS watch: The Supreme Court rejected conservative conspiracy theorist Alex Jones’ last-ditch attempt to block an almost $1.5 billion defamation judgment he faces over false claims that the 2012 Sandy Hook school shooting was a hoax. Read more →
  • 🎤 Pentagon press pushback: Five major broadcast news networks announced that they will not sign the Pentagon’s new press policy, joining several other media organizations that have objected to a set of rules that many journalists consider restrictive. Read more →
  • Follow live politics updates →

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Owen Auston-Babcock.

If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

And if you’re a fan, please share with everyone and anyone. They can sign up here.

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Virginia hires Richmond’s Aaron Roussell after Amaka Agugua-Hamilton’s firing, investigation

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Virginia hires Richmond’s Aaron Roussell after Amaka Agugua-Hamilton’s firing, investigation


Virginia has its new women’s basketball coach, after a messy ending with its previous one.

The Cavaliers announced Tuesday they had hired Richmond head coach Aaron Roussell to replace the fired Amaka Agugua-Hamilton, who was reportedly the subject of an internal investigation over allegations of staff mistreatment. Roussell will be the seventh head coach in program history.

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Roussell had been the Spiders’ head coach for seven years, accruing a 148-72 record and leading them to three straight NCAA tournament appearances since 2024. They notched the first tourney win in their history against Georgia Tech in 2025.

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Aaron Roussell has some work to do in Charlottesville.

(IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / REUTERS)

Roussell will not have to travel far for his new job, but he will enter a program facing surprising levels of instability after a Cinderella run in this year’s March Madness.

After entering their first NCAA tournament in eight years, the Cavaliers reeled off wins over Arizona State in the First Four, No. 7 Georgia and No. 2 Iowa to reach their first Sweet 16 since 2000. Then, days after the season ended, the program announced Agugua-Hamilton’s firing in a cryptic “Virginia Announces Leadership Change for Women’s Basketball” statement.

Per On3’s transfer portal tracker, six Virginia players have entered the portal, including last season’s leading scorer Kymora Johnson.



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Former Virginia Gov Glenn Youngkin hints at political future, says he’s ‘chomping at the bit’ after exit

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Former Virginia Gov Glenn Youngkin hints at political future, says he’s ‘chomping at the bit’ after exit


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Former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin signaled his political career may not be over, telling Sean Hannity he still has “more to give” just under three months after leaving office.

“I have more to give. I just do. The one year of campaigning and the four years of running, so five years, went by in five seconds. It was amazing,” Youngkin said on the “Hang Out with Sean Hannity” podcast.

In the full episode, debuting Tuesday, Youngkin sat down with the Fox News host to discuss his time in office, as well as what things have been like since his term expired in January.

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NEW POLL REVEALS SPANBERGER’S POPULARITY IS PLUMMETING AMID BACKLASH OVER GERRYMANDERING

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin addresses the crowd during an early voting rally on Sept. 21, 2023, in Petersburg, Va. (Steve Helber/AP)

Every morning [when I was governor], I woke up literally bounding out of bed, ready to roll, and that was the most purposeful I’ve ever felt in my whole life.

Youngkin oversaw a range of conservative measures passed in the state, including a push to ensure age-appropriate curriculum in public schools.

SPANBERGER SIGNALS LEFT BENT AFTER CENTRIST CAMPAIGN; GOP LEADER WARNS OF ‘FAIRFAXING THE REST OF VA’

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Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger responds to President Donald Trump’s unseen State of the Union address. (Steve Helber/Reuters)

He also pushed for tax cuts, including efforts to reduce the state’s grocery tax, rolled back COVID-19 restrictions early in his tenure and emphasized tougher public safety policies.

His time in office concluded earlier this year, when Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s administration succeeded his.

I’ve been out of office for six weeks. I took [my wife] Suzanne on vacation, which she so deserved. She’s been amazing. I think she’s of the best first ladies in America,” he said.

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“But six weeks has felt like six years… You’re chomping at the bit.”

While Youngkin stopped short of outlining specific plans for the future, his comments suggest he is keeping the door open to a return to public office.

Fox News Digital’s Charles Creitz contributed to this report.



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Denver police arrest man suspected in fatal shooting on E. Virginia Avenue

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Denver police arrest man suspected in fatal shooting on E. Virginia Avenue


Denver police have arrested the man they believe was responsible for a fatal shooting on E. Virginia Avenue on Thursday afternoon.

According to an arrest affidavit, the Denver Dispatch Center received a 911 call around 12:35 p.m. to report a shooting in the 10100 block of E. Virginia Ave. The caller told dispatch workers that a white SUV was fleeing the scene.

Responding officers found a man who was critically wounded. He was taken to a hospital, where he was pronounced deceased.

Investigators reportedly discovered a handgun, the victim’s cellphone and money in the area where the shooting happened. They also located surveillance footage in the area, which appeared to show the victim exiting a white Chevrolet Tahoe as gunshots could be heard. He walked to the east, looking for help, before collapsing on the ground.

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The affidavit says a conversation was discovered on the victim’s Instagram account in which he was speaking with another person who was selling a firearm.

Aurora police assisted investigators using the Flock License Plate Reader system, identifying the Tahoe at several locations. Police said the vehicle had unique characteristics on the passenger rear wheel. The affidavit says that, before the shooting, the vehicle had a rear license plate, but after the shooting, it was missing.

Daniel Villegas

Denver Police Department

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Investigators found the vehicle, executed a search warrant and found a fired cartridge case in the back seat. A person connected to the case reportedly told officers that he drove his friend, later identified as Daniel Puga Villegas, to meet a person to collect money from him. However, he says an argument took place, and Villegas shot the victim, then ripped off his temporary rear license plate and, while still holding the gun, told him to drive.

Villegas was arrested on Sunday with assistance from the APD and is facing charges of first-degree murder.



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