Most of these counties sit on or near the I-95 corridor. Stafford, King George and Spotsylvania counties include the far reaches of the D.C. suburbs, where growth and new development mix with open space and rural communities. Chesterfield is a massive, suburban Richmond, and nearby Hanover and Goochland counties are experiencing significant new growth, too — as are York and James City counties in the eastern Tidewater area. Rockingham County in the Shenandoah Valley retains a strong rural and small-town character, but has seen growth spurred by transplants from northern Virginia.

These counties share a common link: They have high or growing concentrations of economically upscale white voters with college degrees, a demographic group that swung hard against Trump when he emerged in 2016. But before that, these voters had been far more amenable to Republican candidates. And in 2021, with an unpopular Democrat in President Joe Biden in the White House, many of them deemed Youngkin an acceptable option.

As you can see, Youngkin swept all nine counties, but Trump fared at least 11 net points worse in all of them, and lost three of them outright (Chesterfield, James City and Stafford). Even in a Republican bastion like Rockingham, Trump last year fell markedly short of Youngkin’s 2021 level.

For Republicans, Youngkin’s performance in 2021 represents a target that they’ll need to come awfully close to if Winsome-Sears is to have a chance.

More on this fall’s elections:

• New Jersey: The Garden State governor’s race will test whether Republicans can mobilize Trump’s base when he isn’t on the ballot, Bridget Bowman writes.
• New York City: New York Attorney General Letitia James delivered an impassioned speech last night in support of Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani in her first public appearance since her federal indictment, Zoë Richards reports. Mamdani also appeared publicly today with Gov. Kathy Hochul for the first time since she endorsed his candidacy last month, per Katherine Koretski and Maya Rosenberg.
• California: Former President Barack Obama appeared in an ad to urge California voters to back a November ballot initiative to redraw the state’s congressional district lines, Rebecca Shabad notes.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills jumps into the race against GOP Sen. Susan Collins

By Bridget Bowman

Maine Gov. Janet Mills announced today that she is running for the Senate, pitching herself as the Democratic Party’s best chance to beat Republican Sen. Susan Collins next fall — and saying she does not plan to serve more than one term if elected.

“I’ve won two statewide offices, and unlike other people in the primary right now, I’ve actually won public office, won elections,” Mills said in an interview with NBC News ahead of her launch.

“And I’ve stood up to Donald Trump, and I have delivered progress for Maine people when it comes to health care, clean energy, public health, education. And I’m willing to fight for that in the U.S. Senate,” she said.

Mills, a top recruit for Senate Democrats, said Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., encouraged her to run. But she will face a fight for her party’s nomination, with multiple candidates already in the race and making their own pitches for why they are best suited to defeat Collins, the only Republican senator from a state Kamala Harris won last year.

At least two of those Democratic candidates — oyster farmer and military veteran Graham Platner and former congressional aide Jordan Wood — have pledged to remain in the race. But brewery co-founder Dan Kleban announced that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Mills, calling her “the right leader for this moment.”

Still, the contested primary also comes at a tense moment for the party, with some Democrats calling for a new generation of leaders. Mills, 77, acknowledged “age is a consideration.”

“Honestly, I would not plan to serve for more than one term,” she said. “But this time is vital, and this moment in our history is urgent and very troublesome. And I believe I’m the most qualified person for the seat, for the campaign, because I have run two statewide elections, and I have the energy and the wherewithal to do it.”

“It’s urgent that I take this on,” Mills added later. “I don’t think I could live with myself if I did not do this.”

Read more from Bridget →

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Owen Auston-Babcock.

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