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Senator flags Virginia governor race as “bellwether” for Trump admin

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Senator flags Virginia governor race as “bellwether” for Trump admin


Senator Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat, said on Sunday that his state’s gubernatorial race this fall will be the first “bellwether” test for the new Trump administration and a measure of a “Democratic comeback.”

Newsweek has reached out to the communications teams at the Democratic and Republican national committees for comment via email on Sunday.

Why It Matters

Virginia and New Jersey are the only states holding gubernatorial races this year and will be the first two major state elections held after President Donald Trump’s second term.

Virginia’s election may be seen as a “bellwether,” signaling political trends and voter sentiment. For Republicans, the elections will be a test of whether they can retain some of the voters they won back in 2024. Meanwhile, it will also be a key gauge for Democrats’ messaging as they seek to regain ground over the next few years.

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What To Know

On Sunday, Kaine told CNN’s State of the Union co-host Jake Tapper that Virginia’s upcoming gubernatorial race “will be the first bellwether test of a Democratic comeback and I’m feeling really, really good about that right now.”

His comments came after Tapper asked Kaine about the state of the Democratic Party and politics in Kaine’s home state, to which the senator said: “In Virginia, we have gone from one of the most ruby red states in the country to now having put electoral votes behind Democrats five elections in a row. I just won my reelection by a sizable margin against Donald Trump’s handpicked Republican opponent.” Kaine won a third term last November, beating out Trump-endorsed challenger Hung Cao.

Virginia’s gubernatorial elections tend to sway based on the party in the White House, with Democrats typically winning when a Republican is in office. Republican Glenn Youngkin became governor in 2021 under President Joe Biden, and Democrat Ralph Northam won during Trump’s first presidency.

Kaine said on Sunday that Youngkin won the race “by 1.8 percent—the last two Republicans that won the governorship in Virginia won by comfortable double digits. Our governor is Republican, he ran during a very good year to be a Republican, and he won barely.”

Republican governors Bob McDonnell and Jim Gilmore won their respective races by over 17 percent margin and 13 percent margin.

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Youngkin is term limited at the end of the year, so the race will be an open contest that could serve as a test of sentiment towards Trump and the Democratic Party. On Saturday, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) elected Ken Martin as its new chairperson.

Kaine, who served as Hillary Clinton’s running mate against Trump in the 2016 presidential election, said that he feels “really good about our chances” in the gubernatorial race, adding that “we just took both houses of the state legislature, we’ve got a great candidate for governor.” The Virginia State House and Senate are both controlled by slim Democratic majorities.

Who Are Virginia’s Gubernatorial Candidates?

While the party primaries on June 17 will determine the nominees, each party appears to have an early favorite: former Democratic U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. If either of them wins, they would become the state’s first female governor.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 1,000 registered Virginia voters conducted from January 6 to 8 found Spanberger edging 1 percentage point ahead of Earle-Sears, 42 to 41 percent. The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, found 13 percent of voters were undecided and 4 percent were supporting someone else.

Newsweek reached out to Spanberger and Earle-Sears for comment via email on Sunday.

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Currently, no other Democrats have publicly announced their campaigns, though Representative Bobby Scott has not ruled out a run, The Virginia Pilot reported in January. Former gubernatorial candidate Merle Rutledge is also running in the GOP primary, but Earle-Sears is viewed as the party’s frontrunner.

Senator Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat, is seen during a press conference at the U.S. Capitol on January 23. Inset: President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on…


Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images) (AP Photo/Evan Vucci

What People Are Saying

John Feehery, partner at EFB Advocacy, previously told Newsweek in an email: “Virginia is going to be tough because it is really a blue state despite its purple state veneer, more so because Trump wants to dramatically reduce the government workforce…So I don’t think Republicans are going to do that well, but if they do, it means we had a true realignment election in 2024.”

Kevin Madden, a senior partner at Penta Group, told Newsweek in December: “Both the New Jersey and Virginia contests offer the Democrats a chance to reset their message as they look to rebuild their political coalition.”

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in part last month: “Ten months before the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election, the race is tight overall but with clear demographic differences standing out.”

What Happens Next

The deadlocked race will be determined on November 4, 2025.

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A Republican dark money group blankets Virginia with deceptive mailers ahead of redistricting vote

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A Republican dark money group blankets Virginia with deceptive mailers ahead of redistricting vote


Former GOP state delegate A.C. Cordoza, founder of the Justice for Democracy PAC.Mother Jones illustration; Steve Helber/AP

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Beginning in early March, Virginia voters, particularly members of the Black community, began receiving mailers that compared a proposal by Democrats to temporarily redraw the state’s congressional districts to the Jim Crow era.

One mailer featured images of the KKK in white hoods and teenagers running from police in the 1960s. “Just like Jim Crow, they want to silence your voice,” it read. “Our ancestors fought to represent us. Now Richmond politicians are trying to take our districts away.”

Other mailers used past quotes from Gov. Abigail Spanberger and former President Barack Obama critiquing gerrymandering to make it seem as if they opposed the redistricting referendum on April 21, which could net Democrats up to four new seats if voters approve it. In fact, both support the initiative.  

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The mailers were sent by a little-known group, the Justice for Democracy PAC, that was founded by former state delegate A.C. Cordoza, who served two terms as the only Black Republican in the Virginia legislature before losing his seat last November.

A black flier with white type beside photos of the 1960s of African Americans being terrorized by Klansmen.
A flier that reads “Just Like Jim Crow, They Want to Silence Your Voice”Courtesy

But Cordoza has a powerful backer in the effort to thwart Virginia’s redistricting referendum. His PAC has received nearly $9 million in donations in recent weeks from a dark money group funded in the past by the pro-Trump tech billionaire Peter Thiel, the PayPal and Palantir co-founder who is a longtime mentor of Vice President J.D. Vance. That group, Per Aspera Policy Incorporated, wrote four seven-figure checks to Cordoza’s PAC in March and April.

Thiel made a six-figure donation to Per Aspera Policy in 2018 to boost Kris Kobach’s failed campaign for governor of Kansas. Per Aspera Policy also gave $200,000 in 2022 to a super PAC supporting Vance when he ran for Senate in Ohio. Thiel donated $15 million to that pro-Vance super PAC, at the time the largest amount ever given by a single donor to a political campaign. The pro-Vance super PAC was run by Republican strategist Luke Thompson, who is the current president of Per Aspera Policy.

Per Aspera Policy is registered in Massachusetts and does not have to disclose its donors. A source familiar with the group told Mother Jones that “Thiel has nothing to do with it” and has not donated to Per Aspera Policy for years. They declined to say who the donors to the group currently are, but said Thiel was not one of them.

Civil rights groups have sharply criticized the mailers sent by the Justice for Democracy PAC. “We denounce the manipulative mailers sent by a MAGA-aligned political action committee aimed at deterring Black voters from supporting this referendum, which falsely compare this important measure to Jim Crow—a brutal system that stripped Black Americans of their voting rights,” the NAACP Virginia State Conference said in a statement. “This referendum addresses the manipulation of congressional seats, designed to imbalance representation and secure conservative wins ahead of the November midterm elections. We cannot stand idly by and allow these reprehensible racist tactics go unchallenged.”

Virginia’s redistricting referendum next Tuesday has major implications for the midterm election. Like with California’s Prop. 50, Democrats have proposed temporarily replacing Virginia’s current district lines, which were drawn by a bipartisan commission and result in a split of six Democrats and five Republicans, with a new map that could give Democrats a 10-1 advantage in the state’s congressional delegation. Democrats argue that such a move is necessary to combat Donald Trump’s unprecedented effort to persuade GOP states to redraw their districts mid-decade.

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One flier features a photo of Barack Obama. The flier below features Abigail Spanberger next to a quote in which she calls gerrymandering
Two fliers, one of which reads “Vote No on Gerrymandering! Protect Minority Representation.”Courtesy

Democrats have largely fought Trump to a surprising draw in the gerrymandering arms race he started. But Florida is still planning to convene a special session to redraw the state’s congressional map, which could net Republicans anywhere from two to five more seats, while the Supreme Court is weighing whether to strike down the key remaining section of the Voting Rights Act, which could shift another half dozen seats to the GOP depending on the timing of the decision. Virginia thus represents the last, best opportunity for Democrats to play offense on redistricting before the midterms. Polls show the referendum narrowly passing, with the early voting turnout initially favoring more Republican areas of the state but trending toward Democrats as more polling locations opened in Northern Virginia.

“Over the past year, several Republican-controlled states have taken the unprecedented step of redrawing their congressional maps in the middle of the decade,” Obama has said. “And they’ve done it for a simple reason: to give themselves an unfair advantage in the midterms this fall. In April, Virginians can respond by making sure your voting power is not diminished by what Republicans are doing in other states. This amendment gives you the power to level the playing field in the midterms this fall.” 



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Virginia lawmakers react to tragic deaths of former Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax, wife

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Virginia lawmakers react to tragic deaths of former Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax, wife


ANNANDALE, Virginia – Former Virginia Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax and his wife were found dead in an apparent murder-suicide at their Northern Virginia home, authorities said Thursday.

Fairfax County police said Justin Fairfax shot and killed his wife, Cerina, before turning the gun on himself. Police say the couple’s two teenagers were inside the home at the time and called 911 just after midnight.

Police said Fairfax appeared to have shot his wife several times in the basement before running upstairs to the primary bedroom, where he shot and killed himself.

Audio from emergency dispatch captured the couple’s 16-year-old son seeking help.

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“Caller stating that his dad might have stabbed his mom and that she’s laying on the ground bleeding. You can see holes in her shirt,” dispatchers say.

Authorities said the couple had been separated but were still living in the same home.

“This has been an ongoing domestic dispute surrounding what seems to be a complicated or messy divorce,” said Fairfax County Police Chief Kevin Davis.

Court filings show the couple separated nearly two years ago, and Cerina filed for divorce last summer. Records indicate financial troubles, alcohol use, and emotional and psychological issues may have played a role. Police say Fairfax was scheduled to appear in court April 21 and was ordered by a judge to move out of the home by April 30.

In January, officers responded to the home after Fairfax alleged his wife had assaulted him, but camera footage from inside the home could not corroborate his claims.

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Fairfax, who served as lieutenant governor under former Gov. Ralph Northam from 2018 to 2022, was once a rising political figure.

“This will be an election that will be a battle for the heart and the soul of this country,” Fairfax told 10 News during a 2017 campaign stop in Roanoke.

In 2019, Fairfax was seen as a potential future leader of the Commonwealth during controversy surrounding Gov. Ralph Northam’s racist scandals.

However, Fairfax’s political career derailed after two women accused him of sexual assault. Fairfax said the encounters were consensual and refused calls to resign. He later lost the Democratic primary in his 2021 bid for governor.

Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger said in a statement, “I am deeply saddened by the tragedy that occurred last night. I am praying for the Fairfax children, and I ask my fellow Virginians to hold them in their hearts and prayers. This tragedy reminds us that domestic violence can occur in any family and in any place.”

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U.S. Senators Mark Warner and Tim Kaine also spoke out.

“It’s awful news,” Warner said.

“We’re very heartbroken about this,” said Kaine. “It is truly tragic.”

Police said the couple’s children, a 16-year-old boy and a 14-year-old girl, are being cared for by grandparents and other family members.

Copyright 2026 by WSLS 10 – All rights reserved.

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Police say former Virginia lieutenant governor, wife dead in murder-suicide

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Police say former Virginia lieutenant governor, wife dead in murder-suicide


Virginia’s former Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, who was a rising star in the Democratic party several years ago before his career was derailed by sexual assault allegations, fatally shot his wife before killing himself early Thursday, police said.

Both were found dead at their northern Virginia home in Annandale after the couple’s teenage son called 911 shortly after midnight, said Fairfax County Police Chief Kevin Davis.

The couple was going through a divorce, and Fairfax was served recently with paperwork that indicated when he was next to appear in court, Davis said.

“That may have been a spark,” the chief said. “Detectives will figure out if that led to this tragedy here.”

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For a brief period in 2019, Fairfax had seemed poised to become Virginia governor as Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam became engulfed in a scandal over a racist photo on his medical school yearbook that led to calls for Northam’s resignation.

But then two women came forward, accusing Fairfax of sexually assaulting them years earlier. He adamantly denied the allegations.

Vanessa Tyson said Fairfax — at the time a Columbia Law School student serving as an aide to Democratic vice presidential nominee John Edwards — forced her to perform oral sex in his hotel room during the Democratic National Convention in Boston in 2004. Two days after Tyson’s statement, Meredith Watson issued her own, accusing Fairfax of raping her in 2000, when they were students at Duke University.

Fairfax said the encounters were consensual and refused calls to resign.

The Associated Press generally does not name people who say they are victims of sexual assault, but both women came forward publicly.

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“It’s very sad for this community,” Davis said. “A lot of people who know the Fairfax family, everybody’s shocked. We’re shocked.”

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EDITOR’S NOTE — This story includes discussion of suicide. If you or someone you know needs help, the national suicide and crisis lifeline in the U.S. is available by calling or texting 988. There is also an online chat at 988lifeline.org

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Associated Press contributors include Sarah Brumfield in Cockeysville, Maryland, and Alanna Durkin Richer in Washington. Breed reported from Wake Forest, North Carolina.

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