Senator Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat, said on Sunday that his state’s gubernatorial race this fall will be the first “bellwether” test for the new Trump administration and a measure of a “Democratic comeback.”

Newsweek has reached out to the communications teams at the Democratic and Republican national committees for comment via email on Sunday.

Why It Matters

Virginia and New Jersey are the only states holding gubernatorial races this year and will be the first two major state elections held after President Donald Trump’s second term.

Virginia’s election may be seen as a “bellwether,” signaling political trends and voter sentiment. For Republicans, the elections will be a test of whether they can retain some of the voters they won back in 2024. Meanwhile, it will also be a key gauge for Democrats’ messaging as they seek to regain ground over the next few years.

What To Know

On Sunday, Kaine told CNN’s State of the Union co-host Jake Tapper that Virginia’s upcoming gubernatorial race “will be the first bellwether test of a Democratic comeback and I’m feeling really, really good about that right now.”

His comments came after Tapper asked Kaine about the state of the Democratic Party and politics in Kaine’s home state, to which the senator said: “In Virginia, we have gone from one of the most ruby red states in the country to now having put electoral votes behind Democrats five elections in a row. I just won my reelection by a sizable margin against Donald Trump’s handpicked Republican opponent.” Kaine won a third term last November, beating out Trump-endorsed challenger Hung Cao.

Virginia’s gubernatorial elections tend to sway based on the party in the White House, with Democrats typically winning when a Republican is in office. Republican Glenn Youngkin became governor in 2021 under President Joe Biden, and Democrat Ralph Northam won during Trump’s first presidency.

Kaine said on Sunday that Youngkin won the race “by 1.8 percent—the last two Republicans that won the governorship in Virginia won by comfortable double digits. Our governor is Republican, he ran during a very good year to be a Republican, and he won barely.”

Republican governors Bob McDonnell and Jim Gilmore won their respective races by over 17 percent margin and 13 percent margin.

Youngkin is term limited at the end of the year, so the race will be an open contest that could serve as a test of sentiment towards Trump and the Democratic Party. On Saturday, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) elected Ken Martin as its new chairperson.

Kaine, who served as Hillary Clinton’s running mate against Trump in the 2016 presidential election, said that he feels “really good about our chances” in the gubernatorial race, adding that “we just took both houses of the state legislature, we’ve got a great candidate for governor.” The Virginia State House and Senate are both controlled by slim Democratic majorities.

Who Are Virginia’s Gubernatorial Candidates?

While the party primaries on June 17 will determine the nominees, each party appears to have an early favorite: former Democratic U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. If either of them wins, they would become the state’s first female governor.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 1,000 registered Virginia voters conducted from January 6 to 8 found Spanberger edging 1 percentage point ahead of Earle-Sears, 42 to 41 percent. The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, found 13 percent of voters were undecided and 4 percent were supporting someone else.

Newsweek reached out to Spanberger and Earle-Sears for comment via email on Sunday.

Currently, no other Democrats have publicly announced their campaigns, though Representative Bobby Scott has not ruled out a run, The Virginia Pilot reported in January. Former gubernatorial candidate Merle Rutledge is also running in the GOP primary, but Earle-Sears is viewed as the party’s frontrunner.

What People Are Saying

John Feehery, partner at EFB Advocacy, previously told Newsweek in an email: “Virginia is going to be tough because it is really a blue state despite its purple state veneer, more so because Trump wants to dramatically reduce the government workforce…So I don’t think Republicans are going to do that well, but if they do, it means we had a true realignment election in 2024.”

Kevin Madden, a senior partner at Penta Group, told Newsweek in December: “Both the New Jersey and Virginia contests offer the Democrats a chance to reset their message as they look to rebuild their political coalition.”

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in part last month: “Ten months before the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election, the race is tight overall but with clear demographic differences standing out.”

What Happens Next

The deadlocked race will be determined on November 4, 2025.