The Virginia Tech Hokies are in Nashville and ready for kickoff against the Vanderbilt Commodores. The start of the season is finally here, and plenty of new additions, and lifelong Hokies are set to make their 2024 debut against Vanderbilt.

Virginia Tech is seemingly the big favorite for this game, but Vanderbilt has an equal level of confidence. The Commodores team will look abundantly difference than last year’s team. There’s new coaches, transfer additions, and even entirely new schemes for the Commodores team to learn and adapt with over time. This season also marks Kyron Drones’ first full season as the starting quarterback, and there was a full offseason to game-plan with many of the same players from last year.

Being in the SEC, Vanderbilt inherently has a harder schedule than the Hokies. So, Virginia Tech and Vanderbilt could not be in more opposite positions as a franchise. One franchise is on an extremely hard schedule in what feels like a never ending downfall, and the other is trying to bring their program back to glory days with one of the easiest schedules in the ACC.

The Hokies have beat the Commodores in recent history, and all-time, holding an all-time record of 6-3 vs Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt has not won a game in this series since Vanderbilt’s win during the 1982 season. 

So how do these two teams stack up? Here’s my official preview and prediction.

Virginia Tech Offense vs Vanderbilt Defense

Virginia Tech’s returning production on offense is one of the main storylines heading into the season. The Hokies return most of their starters, losing starting tight end Dae’Quan Wright in the process. Notably, Virginia Tech returns starters Kyron Drones at quarterback, Bhayshul Tuten at running back, and all of the week one starters at wide receiver and offensive line. 

Not everything was perfect for this Virginia Tech offense however. There are definitely areas for improvement, especially when it comes to closing out games. Virginia Tech ranked 88th in FBS in points per fourth quarter, averaging just 6.2 in the quarter. This makes sense due to the nature of the Tech offense, which obviously is not fully focused on the passing side of the ball, which can cause problems late in games when the Hokies are trailing.

Before Kyron Drones fully took over for Grant Wells at quarterback, Virginia Tech’s offense was in even more of a stalemate. Averaging 3.0 4th quarter points through two games. Since Kyron Drones has taken over, it’s felt like a breath of fresh air. In 13 games (11 starts), Drones passed for 2,085 yards on 17 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. Arguably Drones biggest impact was his rushing ability. Drones rushed for 818 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground. 

The Vanderbilt Defense has frankly struggled against the run, it has not been pretty. Vanderbilt has the 108th ranked rush defense, giving up an average of 179 rush yards per game. The Vandy defense has struggled in many ways, it has definitely not just been the run. Vandy ranks 130th in opp. points per game, 132nd in opp. yards per game, and 129th in opp. points per play. 

The Vandy Defense doesn’t have many true stars, but linebacker Langston Patterson fits that description most accurately. Vanderbilt has tried to bolster their defense in the transfer portal this offseason, signing many players in the secondary. Randon Fontenette (TCU), Kolbey Taylor (Wyoming), Mark Davis Jr. (Southern Illinois), Maurice Hampton (Memphis), and Micah Bell (Notre Dame) highlight the new additions in the secondary.

There are so many places for development in this Vanderbilt defense, which has been destroyed on both pass plays and rush plays. The secondary and the pass rush are going to have to take a big step for this Vandy defense to make a big impact in this game.

Vanderbilt Offense vs Virginia Tech Defense

Despite its struggles, the Vandy offense is probably Vanderbilt’s strongest unit on this team. The offense might look entirely different than years past. Head coach Clark Lea cleaned house, firing offensive coordinator Joey Lynch, and hired Tim Beck from New Mexico State.

Diego Pavia is likely going to lead the offense at quarterback, in what will be an option-heavy offense. Vanderbilt is planning to rotate tackles and guards in such a way that there is a weak-side, and a strong-side, which is early seen at the FBS level, let alone by a SEC team. 

Vanderbilt’s offense will frankly be trickier than it is good. This unit wasn’t great last year either. The Commodores averaged 20.6 points per game, 307.5 yards per game, and struggled to convert on third and fourth down plays. 

This Virginia Tech defense is no weak unit. Virginia Tech’s defense ranked 15th in the nation in opp. yards per game and has only added on to their already stellar defense. Most notably, Duke transfer Aeneas Peebles could make a humongous impact in this game. Peebles is a 290-pound All-ACC defensive tackle who led Duke in TFLs last season.

Stopping Vanderbilt at the line-of-scrimmage will be crucial if Virginia Tech wants to dominate against the unique Vanderbilt offense. 

How Does Virginia Tech Win?

The key to this game will be not to fall in Vanderbilt’s trap. As I said earlier, this Vanderbilt offense will have to shock Chris Marve to be able to move the ball in a consistent manner. In college football, that’s really how most big upsets happen. A Vanderbilt team running a traditional offense would never win this game, but if they run plays that look like they’re straight out of College Football 25–they give themselves a better chance.

The way Virginia Tech will win this game, and ultimately try to win by multiple possessions, will be to dominate defensively–especially early in the game. Everybody knows that Virginia Tech will score against the Vanderbilt defense, so if the defense can play its’ role, this game could get ugly fast. It won’t be easy, but this is the game where we will see how dominant this defense can be led by Aeneas Peebles, Dorian Strong, and Antwaun Powell-Ryland.

Prediction

I’ve said that Vanderbilt certainly has a chance to win this game, but I don’t think that’s likely. Virginia Tech outweighs Vanderbilt in all three of the major categories: talent, coaching, and success. The Hokies have certainly seen more recent success than Vanderbilt has, Virginia Tech has the more physical and athletically gifted team, and Virginia Tech has a longer list of coaches with a long tenure.

I don’t think this Vanderbilt team can find success against this Virginia Tech team in any aspect of the game.

Brent Pry has shown that he knows how to draw plays up and take care of opponents in which they are heavy favorites. I think Pry will get up early in this game, similar to the Virginia game last year, and it should be smooth sailing from there.

This is not the Vanderbilt that used to be when James Franklin was the head coach, the Commodores are a long way away from success, and I don’t think this game will be any different.

Final Score: Virginia Tech 39, Vanderbilt 14

As part of our preview coverage for Virginia’s week one matchup against the Richmond Spiders here’s who you should keep your eye on from both squads. 

#4 Chris Tyree – WR – Virginia

The Notre Dame transfer will don the orange and blue for the first time on Saturday and will look to deliver a breakout performance. Tyree has received extensive comparisons to Malik Washington who recorded 110 receptions for 1,426 yards, and nine touchdowns in 2023. Tyree recorded 26 catches for 426 yards in South Bend last year and with a pass-happy offense led by quarterback Anthony Colandrea, Tyree will look to take on a larger workload in Charlottesville. Tyree is also expected to take on the role as the Virginia kickoff returner so look out for him there as well. 

#5 Kobe Pace – RB – Virginia

Pace is set to be the starting tailback for the Cavaliers with the former Clemson transfer receiving a lot of praise for his efforts and work ethic in camp. So look out for the Cavaliers to establish the run early and look for Pace to take on the majority of the workload. Pace is seeking to reestablish his 2021 sophomore season where he averaged 6.16 yards a carry. 

Read more about Kobe Pace here: Virginia RB Kobe Pace Makes Big Strides in Preseason Camp

#15 Chico Bennett Jr. – DE – Virginia

The defensive end is also hoping to get out to a strong start in the season opener as the graduate student looks to, similar to Pace, reestablish old form. In 2022, Bennett Jr. led the Cavaliers with seven sacks and with Richmond giving up 39 sacks last season, he has an opportunity to start the year on a high note. 

#29 Kempton Shine – DB – Virginia

The Eastern Michigan transfer is coming off of an impressive fall camp, receiving praise from Tony Elliott, and will look to display his talents in his first game in the orange and blue. Shine left Eastern Michigan with 27 pass deflections, the second-most in program history. 

Read more about Kempton Shine here: Virginia CB Kempton Shine Impresses in First Fall Camp as a Cavalier

#11 Nick DeGennaro – WR – Richmond

DeGennaro was second team All-CAA last year and was recently named to the Reese’s Senior Bowl Watch List. In 2023, DeGennaro recorded 71 receptions for 904 yards and 11 touchdowns and will look to be a standout against Richmond as he faces off against Virginia’s corners.

#21 Jabril Hayes – DB – Richmond

Hayes received All-Conference honors last season in a year where he recorded three interceptions and five pass deflections. Against the Hoos, Hayes will look to disrupt Colandrea as the sophomore quarterback looks to find rhythm in the season opener as the junior looks to continue to build chemistry with his group of wideouts.

Virginia Football: Looking to Get Special Teams Back on Track in 2024

Virginia Football Injury Report: Hoos In/Out for the Season Opener

Virginia Football Position Overview: Breaking Down UVA’s Linebacker Unit

Virginia Football: Four True Freshmen Listed on UVA’s Week 1 Depth Chart

Tony Elliott Details Decision to Start Anthony Colandrea Over Tony Muskett

West Virginia is looking to make a statement at home and to avenge last season’s loss as it welcomes Penn State in this Big Ten vs. Big 12 matchup to open the 2024 college football season on Saturday.

Expect both teams to run the ball with authority, an area of expertise for these offenses.

Penn State returns its two-headed backfield of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen to help out as quarterback Drew Allar finds his deep ball.

West Virginia gets quarterback Garrett Greene and rushers Jaheim White and CJ Donaldson back, a combination that ranked third nationally with 229 yards per game a year ago.

What do the analytics say about the matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to forecast the game as Penn State and West Virginia renew their rivalry.

The simulations favor Penn State to come away with a sizable victory in the Week 1 matchup.

SP+ predicts the Nittany Lions will defeat the Mountaineers by a projected score of 34 to 20 and to win the game by an expected 13.9 points.

The model expects Penn State to win outright with 81 percent likelihood.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Penn State is an 8.5 point favorite against West Virginia, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 51.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -310 and for West Virginia at +245.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take…

Other analytic tools also favor Penn State to come away from West Virginia with the win.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

The index favors Penn State to win the game in 77.7 percent of its simulations, while West Virginia came out the projected winner in the remaining 22.3 percent of sims.

The model projects Penn State to be 13.8 points better than West Virginia on the same field, also good enough to cover the 8.5 point spread.

When: Sat., Aug. 31
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks