Virginia Tech opens Year 2 of the Brent Pry era against Old Dominion on Saturday night in Lane Stadium. This was a game that didn’t go well for the Hokies in 2022. Five Tech turnovers combined with a late Monarch Hail Mary completion gave the home team a 20-17 victory.

That was one of only three wins for Ricky Rahne’s team last season; the other two came against Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina. The Hokies also only won three games, and with an offseason to retool their rosters and coaching staffs, both teams have undergone significant changes.

Virginia Tech upgraded through the transfer portal at wide receiver and running back and increased depth at quarterback, cornerback and the offensive line. Offensive line coach Ron Crook and running backs coach Elijah Brooks joined the staff, Stu Holt switched to tight ends coach and offensive coordinator Tyler Bowen took over the quarterbacks room.

The Monarchs lost a large number of their top players to either the transfer portal or the NFL, and their transfer portal intake is less well-known than Tech’s. What we do know about them is they have a lot of unknowns. Consider the following, from the ODU game notes:

• Old Dominion’s 58 newcomers are the seventh-most of any FBS team in the country and 41 scholarship newcomers is also the seventh-most in the country.
• The Monarchs are tied with New Mexico with six seniors, the fewest in the country.
• Of the 41 players it returned, ODU has 150 total combined starts, the sixth-fewest in the country.

While it’s true that the Hokies have a lot of new faces and plenty of unknowns, the Monarchs have even more additions, less experience and more roster turnover than almost anybody.

Despite that, the biggest talking point for ODU is its new offensive coordinator.

Offensive Facelift For Old Dominion

The Monarchs did not exactly light the world on fire offensively in 2022. Here’s a sampling of some of their national rankings:

FEI Efficiency: No. 119
Points per Drive: No. 115
Available Yards: No. 112
Rushing Off: No. 125
Passing Off: No. 51
Total Off: No. 106

To top it off, wide receiver Ali Jennings transferred to Virginia Tech in the offseason and tight end Zach Kuntz was drafted in the seventh round. Running back Blake Watson transferred to Memphis after rushing for 918 yards and averaging 9.8 yards per carry. Offensive tackle Nick Saldiveri was a fourth-round pick of the New Orleans Saints.

Injuries to Kuntz and Jennings hurt ODU later in the year, but this offensive struggled big time even before those injuries. Given their talent exodus, the program probably should have done better, and head coach Ricky Rahne agreed, making offensive coaching staff changes in the offseason.

The new offensive coordinator is Kevin Decker, who will also serve as quarterbacks coach. He joins from Fordham, meaning Saturday night’s game will feature a battle between two former Fordham offensive coordinators.

Decker’s 2022 Fordham offense had the second-best offense in FCS history in terms of yardage, averaging 609 yards per game. They ranked second nationally in points per game at 49.5, while quarterback Tim DeMorat led the country in touchdown passes, total touchdowns, passing yards and total offense. Joining Decker in Norfolk is offensive line coach Alex Huettel, who was the O-line coach and running game coordinator for the Rams.

Decker ran a balanced offense that slightly favored the pass last year with the Rams. They ran the ball 433 times (including sacks and scrambles) while throwing it 507 times in 2022. Despite the numbers put up by DeMorat, it was the balanced nature of the offense that led to major success. Fordham’s top rusher finished the season with 1,141 yards while another back ran for a further 932. What’s more, they did it without a mobile quarterback; DeMorat finished the season with just 48 rushing yards.

It’s worth nothing that Decker was at Fordham for four seasons and he had plenty of time to build that offense up. This will be his first game at ODU, so it’s impossible to say how ready the Monarchs will be to run his type of offense. However, he’ll have one familiar face around…

A Quarterback Follows Decker

A Fordham quarterback followed Decker to ODU, but it wasn’t DeMorat. Instead, it’s Grant Wilson (6-3, 217, Jr.), the Rams’ backup last year. Wilson is a native of Arlington, Va., where he played for Yorktown High School, throwing for 2,632 yards and 24 touchdowns as a senior. In two seasons at Fordham, he was 10-of-13 for 93 yards with two touchdowns.

Wilson’s favorite musical artist is Taylor Swift, but that’s just about all we can tell you about him because of his limited playing time at the college level. He obviously knows Decker’s offense, but how talented is he? How is his mobility? From what little I’ve seen from his senior season of high school, he was a good runner at that level, but it doesn’t look like it would translate very well in a game against an FBS defense.

This Monarch offense could be ready to hit the ground running because of Wilson’s experience running it in practice at Fordham. Or it’s equally possible that Wilson is an FCS talent at the college level and will be surrounded by players who weren’t good enough for the Monarchs last season. In that scenario, Saturday night in Blacksburg will likely be a long one for ODU.

Wilson has been named a team captain, which tells me that his practice performances have been pretty good. Perhaps the bigger question is what kind of talent surrounds him.

ODU Offensive Players To Watch

ODU’s Blake Watson was one of the most underrated backs Virginia Tech faced in 2022. He transferred to Memphis in the offseason. Ahead of the 2023 season, the Monarchs list two running backs on their depth chart as replacements:

Keshawn Wicks: 6-1, 194, r-Jr.
Obie Sanni: 5-9, 198, r-So.

Wicks has limited experience with 49 career carries for 180 yards (3.7 ypc). It’s the same for Sanni, who has 24 carries for 84 yards (3.5 ypc) in his career. That’s a very small sample size, but the Monarchs don’t appear to be as good at running back as they were last year with Watson.

Watson was also ODU’s second-leading receiver with 37 catches. The leading receiver, Ali Jennings (54 catches), transferred to Virginia Tech. That leaves Jason Harvey (5-11, 178, r-Jr.) as the leading returning receiver with 30 catches for 558 yards (18.6 avg). He did not have a reception in 39 snaps against Virginia Tech last season.

Only one of ODU’s top six receivers is listed at taller than 5-11. The Monarchs have several local receivers from Richmond and the Tidewater areas, but the name you would probably recognize the most is Jordan Bly (5-10, 170, Jr.). He’s the son of Dre Bly and is coming off a 22-catch season.

On paper, considering past production, this does not appear to be a group of running backs and wide receivers that should scare the Hokies. However, it should also be noted that they could perform much better with a new offensive coordinator.

The ODU Offensive Line

Here’s the Monarch offensive line from left to right…

LT Santana Saunders (6-5, 295, Jr.): 376 career snaps
LG Stephon Dubose-Bourne (6-4, 305, r-So.): 115 career snaps
C Xavier Black (6-4, 295, r-Jr.): 769 career snaps
RG Leroy Thomas (6-3, 292, r-Sr.): 1,620 career snaps
RT Chris Adams (6-6, 295, r-So.): 66 career snaps

Most of this line is extremely inexperienced. The two most experienced players did not perform well last year, especially Black, who had the worst pass blocking grade of any center in the country with a minimum of 700 snaps.

We don’t know a lot about this group because it has a new offensive line coach and a new coordinator, but this doesn’t seem like a group that is going to get a very good push against a Tech defense that held the Monarchs to 84 rushing yards and 2.5 yards per carry last season.

Major Personnel Losses On Defense

The Monarchs also lost a lot of key personnel on the defensive side of the ball. Three of their top four performers, according to PFF, exited via the draft or the transfer portal. Cornerback Tre Hawkins III is now a New York Giant while cornerback Robert Kennedy (NC State) and defensive tackle Alonzo Ford (Penn State) hit the transfer portal.

The losses of Hawkins and Kennedy could be particularly significant. They were two very good corners for the Monarchs last season. It stands to reason that their replacements will be a downgrade; at the same time, the Hokies have seriously upgraded their wide receivers. On paper, this appears to be a major advantage for Virginia Tech.

Keep your eye on cornerbacks Nolan Johnson (6-2, 200, Sr.) and LaMareon James (5-10, 182, Jr.) as the replacements for Hawkins and Kennedy. Johnson is an experienced player, having played 1,162 career snaps for East Carolina and Miami (OH). However, he could never lock down a starting position at either school. James has excelled as a return man in the past and played well in limited action as a backup corner last year, but he’ll be tested as a full-time starter for the first time in 2023.

Key ODU Defensive Players

Linebacker Jason Henderson (6-1, 227, Jr.) is one of the few top players with eligibility who returned to Norfolk for the 2023 season. He led the country with 186 tackles last year, just eight tackles shy of the FBS record. He had a very good game against Virginia Tech in Norfolk but proved to be a bit susceptible against the pass in games later in the season. Perhaps that’s an area where the Hokies could exploit him.

Defensive tackle Denzel Lowry (6-1, 280, r-So.) played over 400 snaps last season and performed at a solid level. The Landstown (Virginia Beach) product should be even better with another offseason under his belt. He and fellow starting tackle Jahlil Taylor (5-11, 285, r-Sr., UNC transfer) should provide a solid test for the interior Virginia Tech offensive line, though the duo doesn’t possess great size.

Keep an eye on defensive end Amorie Morrison (6-4, 245, r-So.), who made the Conference USA All-Freshman team two years ago when he had five tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks. He had a good game against the Hokies last year, but an injury cut his season short after just three games. If he can get back to his 2021 levels, he could be a key player for the Monarchs in 2023.

Special Teams

LaMareon James had two kickoff returns for touchdowns in 2021 and averaged 29.4 yards per return that year. He was less effective in 2022 at 21.3 yards per return and no touchdowns, but you can bet the Hokies are playing close attention to him in the buildup to this one. All it takes is one big return to change the outcome of a game.

Former Varina (Richmond) wideout Isiah Paige (5-8, 161, Jr.) will handle the punt return duties. He averaged 10.9 yards per return in 2021, though his numbers dropped off a bit in 2022 to 7.5 yards per return.

Placekicker Ethan Sanchez enters his second season as ODU’s starter. He was a perfect 28-of-28 on extra points last year while connecting on 10 of his 13 field goal attempts. He was a perfect 2-of-2 against the Hokies.

Punter Ethan Duane is from Australia and enters his third season as the starter. He averaged 42.9 yards per punt last season and 12 of his 67 punts went 50+ yards. Opponents averaged just 3.06 yards per punt return against the Monarchs last season, a number that ranked tenth in the country.

Virginia Tech-ODU: Final Thoughts

Defense was Old Dominion’s strength last year, but that should be taken with a pinch of salt. Here were some of its key defensive metrics:

Available Yards: No. 97
Yards per Play: No. 72
Points per Drive: No. 66
FEI Defense: No. 85

Those numbers suggest the Monarchs were below average on defense. Yet, that was a strength in comparison to their offense.

They lost some key players on defense, but I’m not sure I see the overall production level changing too much. On the offensive side of the ball, it’s not likely to get much worse than it was a year ago, but I do see less big play firepower with the loss of guys like Jennings and Watson. The scheme might be better, but I don’t think the talent will be.

Last year, I predicted the Monarchs to score 17 against the Hokies. They got 20, with seven coming off a special teams turnover that was returned for a touchdown. Where I was off was on the other side of the ball. I had Tech scoring 31. As it turned out, VT failed to score 30 points all season. Despite the number of times I’ve typed that, it’s still hard to believe.

I don’t think this ODU offense will score much on the Hokies either. It’s always a tough thing to predict with a new offensive coordinator and so many new faces, but I don’t see enough talent or experience in the system for the Monarch offense to mount a serious challenge. I also don’t see the Tech offense blowing ODU away, but I think they’ll be a lot better than they were last season. I think we’ll see a comfortable enough win to make the masses happy in week one, and then we’ll find out a lot more about this team as September progresses.

Chris Coleman’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Old Dominion 10

Will Stewart’s Take:  Soooo … with both rosters completely revamped and coaching changes to boot, we’re actually supposed to make a pick in this game? Sure, I’ll play along.

Painting with a broad brush, it appears that the portal gutted ODU while benefitting the Hokies. Virginia Tech lost one good player to the NFL Draft, while ODU lost three. Advantage: Tech.

Virginia Tech’s starting quarterback has 1,046 career passing attempts, while ODU’s starting QB has … (scrolls up) … 13. Advantage: Tech.

I could go on. The Hokies have a lot of advantages, but one thing makes me pause: in 2022, ODU offensive coordinator Kevin Decker presided over a Fordham attack that averaged 609 yards and 49.5 points per game, while Tech’s Tyler Bowen directed a VT offense that failed to score 30 points in any game and averaged just 314 yards per game, barely half of Decker’s Fordham O. Hmm.

But it’s in Blacksburg, where the Hokies usually handle the Monarchs easily: 38-0 in 2017 and 31-17 in 2019. There’s lots of unknowns for each team, so let’s go with history.

Will Stewart’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 31 (over 30!), ODU 13

David Cunningham’s Take: Everyone wants to forget last season’s game at Old Dominion, but it’s important for perspective purposes. Amazingly, and much like Chris, I thought Virginia Tech would score more than 30 points in last season’s opener. I’m now on the ‘I’ll believe it when I see it’ train.

Sure, the Hokies have upgraded at just about every position. The new transfers — Ali Jennings, Jaylin Lane, Da’Quan Felton, Antwaun Powell-Ryland and Derrick Canteen — should have huge impacts. But there are still question marks, the biggest being the offensive line. That’s the group I’ll have my eye on the most on Saturday night. How do the Hokies perform on the line of scrimmage? 

I expect Tech’s defense to take the next step forward, despite its youth in the secondary. Its opponent is a new-look Old Dominion offense that experienced plenty of change in the offseason. I think we’ll see a good showing from the Hokies defensively on Saturday, one that will give fans more confidence going forward. It’s more about how the offense shakes out, and I’m preparing for a semi-close game until I’m convinced that unit has what it takes to play consistently. 

David Cunningham’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Old Dominion 13

Andy Bitter’s Take: Think about what it took for the Hokies to lose this game last year: a botched snap on a field goal attempt that turned into an ODU touchdown in a 10-point swing, four turnovers on interceptions by Grant Wells (not all of which were his fault), 15 Tech penalties for 106 yards and a by-the-skin-of-their-teeth game-winning drive by the Monarchs that included a fourth-and-2 conversion that to this day I’m not sure how the running back didn’t get dropped for a loss.

Is all that really going to happen again? Doubtful. Lost in last year’s upset was that Tech outplayed ODU, with a nearly 100-yard advantage in total offense. Take out that 54-yard loss on the bad snap and that difference is even greater, with the Hokies averaging 5 yards per carry on the ground — their best rushing effort all year. 

Now consider that this game is at Lane Stadium, where two games against ODU have not been close, with Tech having upgraded its roster significantly. There are plenty of unknowns with the Monarchs’ new offense, which is a wrench in this whole deal, but this feels like one that, barring all the mistakes that sank them last year, the Hokies should win comfortably.

Andy Bitter’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Old Dominion 17

Virginia Tech-ODU Fan Prediction Poll

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