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Democrats and analysts say Virginia is not a battleground, Trump’s campaign soldiers on

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Democrats and analysts say Virginia is not a battleground, Trump’s campaign soldiers on


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Virginia is trapped in a political no-man’s land as the 2024 presidential election enters the home stretch – with its status still very much uncertain as to whether it is anywhere close to being a swing state. 

Former President Donald Trump would like the commonwealth to be contested, and his campaign insists it still has a chance this November at winning its prized 13 Electoral College votes. 

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But try telling that to Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats who insist a state that flipped from red to blue in 2008 will be anything but blue again on Election Day.

Trump’s team has its reasons to be optimistic – or at least reasons to suggest it should be in Virginia. In the last statewide election voters picked Republican Glenn Youngkin, a relative new-comer to politics, as their governor over a popular Democrat with deep roots in the party. 

And, the Trump campaign got a much more recent boost on Tuesday when Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign successfully removed his name from the state’s 2024 ballot. The now-former independent presidential candidate was seen as someone who could have otherwise siphoned votes away from Trump but who now is actively campaigning on behalf of the former Republican president.

“We’re not taking anything for granted and Vice President Harris has made clear that she’s running as the underdog,” Rep. Jennifer McClellan, D-Virginia, said at a campaign event for Harris on Thursday in Ettrick, though she did not weigh on whether Virginia is a battleground. “The only poll that really matters is on Election Day, and we need to make sure people know to come out to vote.”

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Ultimately, though, Democrats say that Republicans are fighting an uphill battle in the commonwealth given recent presidential election history. Before President Barack Obama in 2008, Virginia hadn’t voted blue since President Lyndon B. Johnson in his 1964 landslide victory over Barry Goldwater. Since 2008, the state has gone to the Democratic presidential candidate in every general election.

Virginia’s southern neighbor, North Carolina, however, has seen a resurgence as a clear battleground in recent weeks, with Harris leading Trump in a state that he won in 2020 and 2016.

Trump camp asserts Virginia’s ‘battleground’ status despite reporting

On Thursday, Axios reported that the Trump campaign may not view Virginia as winnable, citing a lack of campaigning by the former president or his running mate in the commonwealth in the last six weeks, as well as polling that shows Harris pulling ahead, albeit slightly.

Jeff Ryer, spokesperson for the Trump campaign in Virginia, pushed back against the reporting in a text message. And, he argued, recent visits of Harris’ surrogates to the commonwealth are proof that the Democratic Party sees Virginia as a battleground as well.

“In just the last week, Tim Walz, Gwen Walz, and Doug Emhoff have campaigned in Virginia. I don’t think they were making barbecue runs,” Ryer said, and pointed to the fact that the Kennedy campaign removed their candidate’s name from the ballot. “He said he would remove himself from the ballot in battleground states and Virginia is a battleground state.”

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Other Republicans, including the Virginia party chair, Rich Anderson, and Republican candidates up and down the ballot in the state have asserted that the commonwealth a “battleground state.”

Experts argue, however, that Virginia may have been a “battleground” prior to President Joe Biden’s decision to step aside and clear the field for Harris as the Democratic nominee in July.

Democrats, political scientists don’t believe Virginia is a “battleground”

J. Miles Coleman, editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said the commonwealth was leaning more toward battleground status before Biden stepped aside as the Democratic candidate. Sabato’s Crystal Ball is a newsletter from the University of Virginia Center for Politics that focuses on American campaigns and elections.

The Crystal Ball has maintained a “likely Democrat” victory in Virginia in its presidential prediction model. The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections – both non-partisan outlets for political analysis – have Virginia listed as “likely Democrat” in the presidential race in their prediction models as well.

“I’m kind of skeptical,” Coleman said, of Virginia being a “legit battleground state.”

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He cited a dearth of Virginia-specific polling and said it could suggest that neither side is interested in the commonwealth, compared to other battleground states like Wisconsin or Michigan which seem to have a new poll released every week.

The first Virginia-specific poll since Harris stepped into the top of the ticket was released in mid-August. It showed the Democratic nominee with a slim 3% lead over former Trump. That August margin was an improvement for Democrats over a May poll conducted by Roanoke College which showed Biden and Trump in a dead heat. That poll, along with Youngkin’s 2021 victory over former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe, led the Trump campaign and Republicans to claim a tenuous battleground status in Virginia early in the election season.

“I could see a replay of that [2021 outcome] more easily if Biden was the nominee still, instead of Harris,” Coleman said.

He pointed to Biden’s weak polling with Democratic core groups, such as young voters and minority voters to support his point. After Biden stepped aside, however, Harris has appeared to shore up support among those wayward members of the Democratic Party’s base, he said.

Harris’ campaign has seen over 11,000 volunteers sign up in Virginia since the vice president announced her candidacy, the campaign said, with 25 offices currently open and 132 staffers stationed across the state.

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Virginia’s Democratic leaders, including U.S. Senator Mark Warner, McAuliffe and House of Delegates Speaker Don Scott, have all expressed their skepticism about Virginia’s status as a battleground in interviews with the media.

How did Kennedy remove his name from the ballot in Virginia, anyway?

Regardless of that skepticism from Democrats and political analysts about the commonwealth’s status as a battleground, the Trump campaign has opened 19 offices across the state between July and September and has 30 staffers working across Virginia, Ryer said.

And skepticism from Democrats and political scientists hasn’t stopped the Kennedy campaign from removing their candidate’s name from the ballot, in an apparent effort to tip the scales.

In Virginia, the process to get RFK Jr.’s name off the ballot was relatively easy compared to states like Wisconsin and Michigan where the campaign has launched legal battles to remove the Independent’s name.

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The Department of Elections received the request to remove Kennedy from the ballot Tuesday and removed his name from the qualified candidate list, Andrea Gaines, spokesperson for the Virginia Department of Election said in an email. In this instance, the ease of which Kennedy’s name was removed is owed to the fact that ballots have not yet been printed in the commonwealth.



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Va. lieutenant governor wants to be governor, setting up possible historic contest for job

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Va. lieutenant governor wants to be governor, setting up possible historic contest for job


Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears said Thursday she will seek the Republican nomination for governor next year, setting the stage for one of the most historic contests in Virginia history. 

Earle-Sears, who rode the GOP wave in 2021 into the second of the three highest political offices in the state, announced her candidacy at a rally in Virginia Beach. If no one else steps forward for the nomination, she would face presumed Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger, with the winner becoming the first woman to be a Virginia governor. 

Should she win, the 60-year-old Earle-Sears would become the second Black person – and the first Black woman – to be the state’s chief executive. 

In her announcement, accompanied by the release of a YouTube campaign video, Earle-Sears acknowledged the historical significance of her run. However, she said, more than history was at stake in the campaign. 

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“Yes, this is an opportunity to make history, but our campaign is about making life better for every Virginian right here, right now,” she said.  

Earle-Sears has already put her name in Virginia’s history books by becoming the first Black woman to serve as lieutenant governor. She is the third Black person to hold that post, following L. Douglas Wilder in 1986 and Justin Fairfax in 2018, her immediate predecessor.

Wilder went on to become the nation’s first Black governor. Fairfax lost a crowded Democratic gubernatorial primary in 2021.

Running on Youngkin platform

The Jamaican native and former Marine said she wants to build on the run of her predecessor, Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who under Virginia law cannot seek a second term. Youngkin, a Republican who flirted with the possibility of being former President Donald Trump’s running mate this year, has pushed traditional conservative agendas on business growth, support for law enforcement and giving parents choices for their children’s education – and Earle-Sears vowed to follow that same course. 

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“We cannot go backwards now,” Earle-Sears said in a statement announcing her campaign. “Little girls and boys, from Fairfax to Fincastle, from Haysi to Henry, from Phoebus to Port Republic, and from Wachapreague to Wise … they are all counting on us to win and succeed in Virginia. I will not be outworked. And I will not let them down.”  

Thursday night’s announcement was not a surprise. Earlier in the day, Earle-Sears filed paperwork with the state Department of Elections to run. 

Earle-Sears’ announcement essentially ends speculation about whether state Attorney General Jason Miyares would also seek the top spot on the ticket. Miyares, who made history in 2021 by becoming the first person of Hispanic descent to win the AG office, issued his own statement shortly before Earle-Sears’ announcement saying that his political attention was squarely on the 2024 presidential election. 

“My focus right now is on November 2024 and electing as many Repubicans in Virginia as we can,” Miyares posted on X (formerly Twitter). Miyares said the U.S. “cannot afford four more years of the failed policies” of the Biden administration. 

“It is clear we cannot allow Democrats to seize complete control of power in Washington or Richmond,” he wrote. 

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Currently, Democrats hold six of Virginia’s 11 House of Representatives seats, as well as both U.S. Senate seats. The GOP is facing its toughest battles in the Second and Seventh districts. 

In the Second, freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans – who won the seat two years ago with just a 51% majority – is being challenged by Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal. The Second District covers much of coastal Virginia with its political center being Virginia Beach. 

In the Seventh, which stretches from central to northern Virginia, millions of dollars are being spent in the contest between Republican Derrick Anderson and Democrat Eugene Vindman. Republicans are hoping to flip the district which has been represented by Spanberger the past four years.  

Spanberger opted out of re-election to focus on her Democratic bid for governor. 

Democrats call her ‘extremist’

Virginia Democrats wasted no time in going after Earle-Sears. A statement from state party chair Susan Swecker called the lieutenant governor an “extremist” on such issues as reproductive rights and serving the LGBTQ+ community. 

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“Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears has dedicated more time to boosting her far-right profile as an extremist on Newsmax and Fox News than actually addressing the needs of hard-working Virginians,” Swecker said in the statement. “If elected governor, she’d unleash her radical agenda: outlawing abortions, rolling back gun safety measures, dismantling LGBTQ+ rights, gutting healthcare for millions, and slashing funding for public schools.” 

Swecker called Earle-Sears’ vision “divisive, toxic leadership that hurts the middle-class and tears us apart instead of bringing us together.” 

Earlier this year, Earle-Sears caused a stir in the Senate when she referred to Democratic Sen. Danica Roem of Prince William County – the first transgender legislator in Virginia – as “sir” during a Senate floor debate. While she eventually apologized for the mistake, Earle-Sears appeared agitated in doing so, accusing Senate Democrats of “showing disrespect towards me.” 

Who is Winsome Earle-Sears? 

Earle-Sears came to the U.S. with her parents from Jamaica at the age of six. Her first foray into political office was 2001 when she ran for and won as a Republican a Black-majority House district seat in Norfolk. But she was out of politics two years later, losing a bid for the Third Congressional District seat to Democratic incumbent Bobby Scott. 

A former member of the state Board of Education, Earle-Sears ran a write-in campaign in the 2018 U.S. Senate election, protesting the candidacy of Republican Corey Stewart and his reported ties to white nationalists. 

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She supported Trump’s re-election bid in 2020. The next year, she became the first Black woman to win Virginia’s lieutenant governorship. 

In 2022, following the GOP’s dismal midterm election performance, Earle-Sears appeared to distance herself from Trump, calling him a “liability” to the Republican party and vowing to not support another White House bid by him. 

However, like many other Republicans across the nation, she seemed to soften her stand on Trump as it became clear he would be the GOP nominee in 2024.  

Bill Atkinson (he/him/his) is an award-winning journalist who covers breaking news, government and politics. Reach him at batkinson@progress-index.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @BAtkinson_PI. 



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Virginia soldier who died as a Korean War POW accounted for

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Virginia soldier who died as a Korean War POW accounted for


BLAND CO., Va. (WDBJ) – The Mountain Field Cemetery in Hollybrook has sweeping views of the Bland County countryside where Bobby Wright grew up. And there among the graves of his parents, grandparents and other family members is a marker honoring his life.

“We got it placed, had a little service here for him,” said Wright’s first cousin Elaine Havens. “The VFW was here. The American Legion was here. And he was well-honored that day.”

U.S. Army Private 1st Class Robert J. Wright Jr. was just 20 years old when he died during the Korean War. He was reported missing in action on November 30, 1950 and fellow prisoners of war later said he died in March 1951.

Havens didn’t know Wright. She was born after his death, but her brother talked about him frequently. And she said Wright’s mother never gave up hope that he would come home alive, despite reports that he had died in a prisoner of war camp.

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“She didn’t think that that was right, that he would come home, that he was prisoner somewhere and he would eventually come home,” Havens told WDBJ7. “And she went to her grave still thinking that Bobby’s going to come home.”

A news release from the Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency said Wright’s remains were part of a group of Korean War Unknowns buried at the National Memorial Cemetery of the Pacific in Honolulu. Wright’s remains were disinterred in August 2019 and sent for analysis.

The release said scientists from DPAA used dental and anthropological analysis, as well as chest radiograph comparison. In addition, scientists from the Armed Forces Medical Examiner System used mitochondrial DNA analysis.

Havens said the news that Wright’s remains have finally been identified will bring closure for family members who have never forgotten his life, service and sacrifice.

“It’s emotional. And I don’t want to cry on camera, but it is emotional to know that they didn’t give up. The military didn’t give up,” Havens said. “And even though to us, I had kind of given up hope that he would ever come back, but now it looks like he will.”

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First Republican steps up for 2025 Virginia governor race – Washington Examiner

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First Republican steps up for 2025 Virginia governor race – Washington Examiner


With Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R-VA) term limits preventing him from running for reelection, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA) has stepped up to run for governor of Virginia in the 2025 off-year election.

Earle-Sears filed her statement of organization with the Virginia Department of Elections on Sept. 4, which made her the first Republican to submit paperwork for the contest.

Earle-Sears became the second woman and the first woman of color to hold a statewide office. If she is successful in her 2025 campaign, Earle-Sears will become the first black woman to serve as governor in the United States. 

Earle-Sears, Youngkin, and Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares were part of a mini-Republican revolution in Virginia two years ago.

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Following a steady stream of Democratic wins in the once safe-red state, Youngkin and Earle-Sears won their 2022 contests with campaigns heavily focused on parental rights in education and fighting against critical race theory in public schools.

Prior to her role as lieutenant governor, Earle-Sears was a state delegate and served in the Marine Corps. She immigrated from Jamaica as a child. 

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

So far, only one Democratic candidate is running for Virginia governor. Last year, Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) declared she would be running. If Spanberger and Earle-Sears are the nominees next November, it will be a historic matchup, as Virginia has never had a female governor.

The Washington Examiner reached out to Earle-Sears’s communication officer for a comment.

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