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Morning Bid: ‘Tis the season for macro forecasts

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Morning Bid: ‘Tis the season for macro forecasts

LONDON, December 5 (Reuters) – Everything Mike Dolan and the ROI team are excited to read, watch and listen to over the weekend.

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Hello Morning Bid readers!

We’ve entered the final month of the year, and that means one thing: 2026 market outlooks. While it’s tough to find many U.S. equity bears, forecasts are arriving with quite a few qualifiers – which is understandable given that so much is riding on an artificial intelligence boom that’s shrouded in uncertainty.
AI adoption might truly take off next year, but as ROI editor-at-large Mike Dolan argues, U.S. GDP growth is likely still going to be constrained by a 150-year 2% trendline, especially if technological innovation runs up against supply chain or labor market bottlenecks.
Speaking of the U.S. labor market, the picture there is once again clear as mud. On Wednesday, U.S. private payrolls for November came in at negative 32,000 – well below consensus and the biggest drop in more than two and a half years. Yet Thursday brought news that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits had slid to the lowest level in a more than three years.
And despite all the talk of a K-shaped economy, a slice of consumer delinquency figures suggests the U.S. economic picture might not be so grim.
On top of that, fears about foreign investors souring on U.S. stocks may also be misplaced. Overseas private sector inflows into U.S. stocks are running at record-high levels, having re-accelerated in recent months. The big question now is whether this can be sustained next year.
Over in Asia, Japan’s 10-year yield jumped to its highest point since 2007 on Friday, shooting up over 25 bps in four weeks, even as the government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has sought to soothe investor concerns about her $137 billion spending plan.
The battered yen continues to hover around 155 to the dollar, near the higher end of its multi-decade range. The currency’s seemingly excessive weakness may be a ticking time bomb, argues Eurizon SLJ CEO Stephen Jen.
In energy markets, the week started off with OPEC+ announcing that it would keep production levels unchanged through the first quarter. But uncertainty surrounding sanctioned volumes complicates the market outlook.
Staying with OPEC+, changes its making to its oil production quota system could spark a wave of upstream investments.
Meanwhile, in the gas market, Europe is preparing to phase out Russian imports by 2027. ROI energy transition columnist Gavin Maguire explains which countries will be most affected.
Over in metals, copper continues its bull run, but this boom does not mean global manufacturing is firing up commensurately heading into 2026.
Looking to next week, the main event is the Federal Reserve meeting. A 25 bps cut is all but guaranteed, but Fed-watchers will pay close attention to the number of dissents, as this may speak to the growing divisions in a body long known for consensus.
The real Fed story, however, remains Present Donald Trump’s selection of the next Chair. Mike Dolan argues that if White House adviser Kevin Hassett is selected – as Trump has hinted – he will effectively serve as a “shadow Fed Chair” for five months – with markets hanging on his every word.

As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team’s recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch to stay informed and ready for the week ahead.

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I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at anna.szymanski@thomsonreuters.com, opens new tab ., opens new tab
This weekend, we’re reading…CLYDE RUSSELL, ROI Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist: You don’t need to be a chess player to appreciate the story of Sarwagya Singh Kushwaha, the youngest player in chess history to earn an official FIDE rating before the age of four.RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: A picture is worth a thousand words. That’s why I recommend looking at this exquisite collection of the Reuters’ top photographs of 2025, selected from the 1.6 million photos released to clients this year. And what a year it’s been…GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: This updated high-def map of U.S. Data Center infrastructure created by the chief cartographer at the recently renamed National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is a thing of beauty. It really highlights the enormous scale of the activity taking place across the country as transmission lines and server farms get up at running to power the AI revolution: https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/gen/fy26/98020.jpg, opens new tabJAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: The U.S. – and the world – is experiencing an intense speculative AI boom. To get a sense of where it might lead, economics professors Simon Johnson and Piero Novelli look back and Charles Kindleberger’s “Manias, Panics and Crashes”. The book, published in 1978, raises three fundamental questions relevant to today., opens new tabWe’re listening to…MIKE DOLAN, ROI Editor-at-Large: It’s not often you get a podcast on ‘r*’! With the Fed meeting up next week, this Brookings podcast on the theoretical ‘neutral’ rate of interest shows how the shocks of recent years may see this rate creeping higher after years of decline., opens new tabJAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ fame doesn’t really do media beyond his often cryptic posts on X – and interviews are even rarer. But fast forward through about 6-7 minutes of ads and intro, and you get one here on the ‘Against the Rules’ podcast with author Michael Lewis., opens new tab

And we’re watching…

ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: We’ve just launched the Morning Bid daily podcast, opens new tab, which will be available in audio and video. Subscribe to hear and see ROI editor-at-large Mike Dolan and other Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.
Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X., opens new tab
Opinions expressed are those of authors. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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Critics say Turkey’s verbal attacks on Israel have crossed into antisemitism

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Critics say Turkey’s verbal attacks on Israel have crossed into antisemitism

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As Iran, Russia’s war with Ukraine and NATO’s defense spending dominate the organization’s summit in Ankara, one issue that has escaped the media glare is the increasingly antisemitic rhetoric coming from Turkish leaders.

As relations between Turkey and Israel continue to hit new lows, a war of words between the two nations has erupted.

In a July 2 interview with CNN Türk, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Israel has “become a burden that humanity can no longer bear,” The Jerusalem Post reported. 

Fidan also said Israel is representative of “humanity’s common problems,” and asked other countries to apply pressure to the Jewish State, according to Israel National News.

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ISRAELI OFFICIAL SAYS EU SANCTIONS REVEAL ANTISEMITISM HIDING BEHIND ‘SOCIALLY ACCEPTABLE MASK’

Anti-Israel protesters rally in Istanbul, Turkey, Feb. 17, 2024, over the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)

In a press statement, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar called Fidan’s words “a clear call for genocide. The Jewish people know very well what happens when such words are allowed to go unchallenged. The first step on the road to genocide is dehumanization.

“This is a sentence that sounds very familiar to sentences from about 100 years ago,” Sa’ar added. “To speak about a people as a ‘problem for humanity.’ What do you do with a ‘burden that you can no longer bear?’” he asked.

Sinan Ciddi, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and director of FDD’s Turkey program, told Fox News Digital Fidan’s statement was “some of the vilest rhetoric to come out of any statesman since the Holocaust.”

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Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan speaks during a rally in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas in Istanbul, Turkey, Oct. 28, 2023.  (Dilara Senkaya/Reuters)

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Ciddi said escalated anti-Israel rhetoric in Turkey “goes all the way back to 2008,” when President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan “began the process of ripping apart the bilateral relationship between Israel and Turkey. But, after Oct. 7, it just went into overdrive,” he said. “I have never heard any Arab leader utter the words that Foreign Minister Fidan has said.”

Yet Erdoğan has condemned antisemitism; the Turkish Minute reported that he told Turkish religious minority representatives at an Ankara dinner in March that “just as Islamophobia is a crime against humanity, antisemitism is also a crime, an evil that cannot be considered reasonable or legitimate.”

Despite his recent condemnation, he and other ministers have continued with their rhetoric against the Jewish state.

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In June, Turkish Interior Minister Mustafa Ҁiftҁi said the world would “witness the liberation of Jerusalem,” according to the Times of Israel.

WHO IS TURKEY’S RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN? HOW NATO’S MOST UNPREDICTABLE LEADER KEEPS REINVENTING HIMSELF

In May 2021, the Times of Israel reported that Erdoğan called Israelis “murderers,” claiming they were “only satisfied by sucking their [victims’] blood.” At the time, the State Department spokesperson issued a strong condemnation of Erdoğan’s “antisemitic comments regarding the Jewish people,” calling them “reprehensible.”

In May 2025, Erdoğan invoked similar language, accusing Israel of being “a terror state that feeds on the blood, lives and tears of the innocent,” Israel National News reported.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, right, and Israeli Ambassador to the U.N. Danny Danon speak to journalists ahead of a United Nations Security Council meeting at U.N. headquarters on August 5, 2025 in New York (Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images)

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Anti-Israel sentiment in Turkey has infiltrated far beyond leadership. A Pew Research poll from June found that Turkey had the highest level of anti-Israel sentiment of any polled country, with 91% of the population holding “very unfavorable” views on Israel, 6% holding an “unfavorable” view, and just 1% expressing any favor of Israel.

In response to questions about whether the State Department plans to respond to antisemitic statements from Turkish leadership, a spokesperson told Fox News Digital that “Turkey is a longstanding and valued NATO ally, and we continue to engage on all aspects of our important and multi-faceted relationship.”

Ciddi said there are “numerous channels” for the State Department and Trump administration to reprimand Turkey for its unchecked hatred. 

“The president could obviously pull aside a Turkish counterpart and demand an apology,” he explained, while the State Department could address the comments or place Turkey on a watchlist.

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NATO leaders participate in a summit in The Hague, Netherlands, June 25, 2025.  (Handout/Latin America News Agency via Reuters Connect)

As the two-day NATO summit winds down in Ankara, Ciddi said Turkey “is going to try and overshadow anything else” and “promote itself as the sort of premiere NATO ally, so we need to watch out for Turkey’s whitewashing of its human rights record.

“We cannot safeguard our allies’ democratic norms, rights and practices if we don’t hold member states like Turkey accountable for the threats that it presents.”

The Turkish Embassy in Washington, D.C., did not respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

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