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Morning Bid: ‘Tis the season for macro forecasts

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Morning Bid: ‘Tis the season for macro forecasts

LONDON, December 5 (Reuters) – Everything Mike Dolan and the ROI team are excited to read, watch and listen to over the weekend.

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Hello Morning Bid readers!

We’ve entered the final month of the year, and that means one thing: 2026 market outlooks. While it’s tough to find many U.S. equity bears, forecasts are arriving with quite a few qualifiers – which is understandable given that so much is riding on an artificial intelligence boom that’s shrouded in uncertainty.
AI adoption might truly take off next year, but as ROI editor-at-large Mike Dolan argues, U.S. GDP growth is likely still going to be constrained by a 150-year 2% trendline, especially if technological innovation runs up against supply chain or labor market bottlenecks.
Speaking of the U.S. labor market, the picture there is once again clear as mud. On Wednesday, U.S. private payrolls for November came in at negative 32,000 – well below consensus and the biggest drop in more than two and a half years. Yet Thursday brought news that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits had slid to the lowest level in a more than three years.
And despite all the talk of a K-shaped economy, a slice of consumer delinquency figures suggests the U.S. economic picture might not be so grim.
On top of that, fears about foreign investors souring on U.S. stocks may also be misplaced. Overseas private sector inflows into U.S. stocks are running at record-high levels, having re-accelerated in recent months. The big question now is whether this can be sustained next year.
Over in Asia, Japan’s 10-year yield jumped to its highest point since 2007 on Friday, shooting up over 25 bps in four weeks, even as the government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has sought to soothe investor concerns about her $137 billion spending plan.
The battered yen continues to hover around 155 to the dollar, near the higher end of its multi-decade range. The currency’s seemingly excessive weakness may be a ticking time bomb, argues Eurizon SLJ CEO Stephen Jen.
In energy markets, the week started off with OPEC+ announcing that it would keep production levels unchanged through the first quarter. But uncertainty surrounding sanctioned volumes complicates the market outlook.
Staying with OPEC+, changes its making to its oil production quota system could spark a wave of upstream investments.
Meanwhile, in the gas market, Europe is preparing to phase out Russian imports by 2027. ROI energy transition columnist Gavin Maguire explains which countries will be most affected.
Over in metals, copper continues its bull run, but this boom does not mean global manufacturing is firing up commensurately heading into 2026.
Looking to next week, the main event is the Federal Reserve meeting. A 25 bps cut is all but guaranteed, but Fed-watchers will pay close attention to the number of dissents, as this may speak to the growing divisions in a body long known for consensus.
The real Fed story, however, remains Present Donald Trump’s selection of the next Chair. Mike Dolan argues that if White House adviser Kevin Hassett is selected – as Trump has hinted – he will effectively serve as a “shadow Fed Chair” for five months – with markets hanging on his every word.

As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team’s recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch to stay informed and ready for the week ahead.

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I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at anna.szymanski@thomsonreuters.com, opens new tab ., opens new tab
This weekend, we’re reading…CLYDE RUSSELL, ROI Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist: You don’t need to be a chess player to appreciate the story of Sarwagya Singh Kushwaha, the youngest player in chess history to earn an official FIDE rating before the age of four.RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: A picture is worth a thousand words. That’s why I recommend looking at this exquisite collection of the Reuters’ top photographs of 2025, selected from the 1.6 million photos released to clients this year. And what a year it’s been…GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: This updated high-def map of U.S. Data Center infrastructure created by the chief cartographer at the recently renamed National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is a thing of beauty. It really highlights the enormous scale of the activity taking place across the country as transmission lines and server farms get up at running to power the AI revolution: https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/gen/fy26/98020.jpg, opens new tabJAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: The U.S. – and the world – is experiencing an intense speculative AI boom. To get a sense of where it might lead, economics professors Simon Johnson and Piero Novelli look back and Charles Kindleberger’s “Manias, Panics and Crashes”. The book, published in 1978, raises three fundamental questions relevant to today., opens new tabWe’re listening to…MIKE DOLAN, ROI Editor-at-Large: It’s not often you get a podcast on ‘r*’! With the Fed meeting up next week, this Brookings podcast on the theoretical ‘neutral’ rate of interest shows how the shocks of recent years may see this rate creeping higher after years of decline., opens new tabJAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ fame doesn’t really do media beyond his often cryptic posts on X – and interviews are even rarer. But fast forward through about 6-7 minutes of ads and intro, and you get one here on the ‘Against the Rules’ podcast with author Michael Lewis., opens new tab

And we’re watching…

ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: We’ve just launched the Morning Bid daily podcast, opens new tab, which will be available in audio and video. Subscribe to hear and see ROI editor-at-large Mike Dolan and other Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.
Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X., opens new tab
Opinions expressed are those of authors. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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US destroyer interdicts two oil tankers trying to leave Iran during Trump’s blockade

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US destroyer interdicts two oil tankers trying to leave Iran during Trump’s blockade

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A U.S. destroyer interdicted two oil tankers that were trying to leave Iran on Tuesday, a U.S. official said, as part of the Trump administration’s blockade on Iranian ports. 

The official told Reuters that the ships left Chabahar port on the Gulf of Oman before being contacted by the U.S. warship through radio communication. The official added that the tankers were among the six vessels that U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said Tuesday obeyed orders from American forces to turn around and head back to an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman. 

“More than 10,000 U.S. Sailors, Marines, and Airmen along with over a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft are executing the mission to blockade ships entering and departing Iranian ports,” CENTCOM said. “During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the U.S. blockade and 6 merchant vessels complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman.” 

“The blockade is being enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,” it added. “U.S. forces are supporting freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.”

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TRUMP BLASTS CLOSE ALLY MELONI, SAYS SHE’S FAILING US ON IRAN

U.S. Central Command said Tuesday that “U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers are among the assets executing a blockade mission impacting Iranian ports.” (CENTCOM)

The Pentagon did not immediately respond Wednesday to a request for comment from Fox News Digital regarding the reported interdiction of the oil tankers. 

“U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers are among the assets executing a blockade mission impacting Iranian ports. The blockade is being enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or leaving coastal areas or ports in Iran,” CENTCOM said Tuesday. “A typical destroyer has a crew of more than 300 Sailors that are highly trained in conducting offensive and defensive maritime operations.” 

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S NEGOTIATING TEAM PRAISED BY NUCLEAR EXPERTS FOR WALKING AWAY FROM PAKISTAN TALKS

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FILE PHOTO: Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah, near the border with Oman’s Musandam governance, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. (REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo/File Photo)

CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper added in a statement that “a blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented as U.S. forces maintain maritime superiority in the Middle East.”

A satellite image shows the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, vital for global energy supply. (Amanda Macias/Fox News Digital)

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 Cooper said an estimated 90% of Iran’s economy is supported by international trade by sea. 

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“In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea,” he also said. 

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Magyar calls on Orbán to lift veto on Ukraine loan before his exit

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Magyar calls on Orbán to lift veto on Ukraine loan before his exit

Péter Magyar, the winner of the Hungarian elections and the country’s incoming prime minister, has called on Viktor Orbán to lift his controversial veto on the €90 billion loan for Ukraine before vacating his office in May.

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The financial scheme was agreed by the 27 leaders of the European Union in December, but Orbán used his veto in mid-February to block the legal procedure over an unrelated dispute with Kyiv involving the Druzhba pipeline, which carries low-cost Russian oil.

The spat featured prominently in Orbán’s failed re-election campaign.

“Viktor Orbán accepted the loan (in December), and he said during the election campaign that as long as there is no oil, there is no money,” Magyar said on Wednesday during his first interview with the Hungarian public broadcaster since 2024.

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Magyar referred to the words of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who this week said the pipeline could be repaired “not completely, but enough to function” by the end of the month. The infrastructure was badly damaged in January by Russian drones.

The restoration of flows will be “very important for our country”, Magyar said, signalling his desire to continue purchases of Russian oil in the near term.

“In the next 30 days, the Orbán government is still operating as an executive government,” Magyar added.

“So I think, if Druzhba restarts, Viktor Orbán will release his technical veto.”

Only one element of the €90 billion loan, a regulation amending the EU budget that requires unanimity, is still on hold. In principle, Orbán could order his ambassador in Brussels to lift the veto at any time and complete the legislative procedure.

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However, it is far from clear if Orbán, who made Zelenskyy the nemesis of his campaign, will allow this to happen before leaving office sometime in May.

The European Commission is quickly laying the groundwork to make the first transfer to Kyiv as soon as the deadlock is broken. The executive has a reserve of borrowed cash at hand, so it is just waiting for the legal blessing to go ahead.

On Tuesday, the Commission said the offer to send an external inspection to the Druzhba pipeline and pay for the repair with EU funds, which were made to placate Orbán, was still applicable after the election. (The inspection has not yet taken place.)

“We, of course, expect all EU leaders, all member states, to abide by their commitments,” a Commission spokesperson said.

After a bitter clash with Orbán over his “unacceptable” veto, capitals are keen to turn the page and leave the episode behind.

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Speaking alongside Zelenskyy on Tuesday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the military funds under the loan “must be disbursed promptly”.

“Ukraine urgently needs them. Ukraine will then be able to finance its defence in the long term. Russia should take this seriously,” Merz said.

Zelenskyy echoed the message and expressed confidence that, under Magyar’s leadership, Hungary would stop blocking “important” decisions for Ukraine.

“I am sure that we will cooperate with Hungary. We have good relations between the people. We are neighbours. We will continue these relations,” Zelenskyy said.

“I think we need to build our relations on pragmatism. We can also have friendly relations based on agreements and treaties. This will only strengthen both countries.”

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Besides the loan, Hungary, together with Slovakia, is currently vetoing the 20th package of sanctions against Russia. It is also blocking Ukraine’s accession process and the release of €6.6 billion in military aid under the European Peace Facility (EPF).

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Video: Lebanon and Israel Hold Rare In-Person Talks

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Video: Lebanon and Israel Hold Rare In-Person Talks

new video loaded: Lebanon and Israel Hold Rare In-Person Talks

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Lebanon and Israel Hold Rare In-Person Talks

While the talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington did not yield a cease-fire agreement, both sides agreed to “launch direct negotiations” after having “productive discussions,” according to a statement from the U.S. State Department.

“It’s a historic gathering that we hope to build on. And the hope today is that we can outline the framework upon which a permanent and lasting peace can be developed.” “We discovered today that we’re on the same side of the equation. That’s the most positive thing we could have come away with. We are both united in liberating Lebanon from an occupation power dominated by Iran called Hezbollah.”

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While the talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington did not yield a cease-fire agreement, both sides agreed to “launch direct negotiations” after having “productive discussions,” according to a statement from the U.S. State Department.

By Meg Felling

April 14, 2026

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