Clemson (16-4, 8-1 ACC) vs Virginia Tech (8-11, 3-5 ACC)

Blacksburg Virginia, Cassell Coliseum

Saturday, January 25th, 5 PM

ACC Network

This isn’t a good Virginia Tech team. Mike Young’s squad has struggled all season against any team with a pulse. Their win over NC State on January 15 is their only victory over a team in the KenPom top 100, and NC State is ranked 97th. On top of not beating good teams, they have a few head-scratching losses on their resume, including a home loss to Jacksonville and an away loss to Georgia Tech last time out in a battle of bottom-tier ACC squads.

I will say this for the Hokies: they’ve managed to cobble together three ACC wins over Miami, Cal, and the aforementioned NC State. They are currently on a two-game losing streak, including a nine-point home loss to Wake Forest. If the Hokies are going to salvage anything from this season, knocking off Clemson at home could be the impetus to turn things around during the back half of the ACC schedule.

Turnovers have been one of the primary issues for Virginia Tech. Their turnover percentage of 20.7% ranks 332nd in the country (out of 364 teams). Meanwhile, Clemson’s defensive turnover percentage of 20.5% is good for 48th in the country. Virginia Tech is terrible at holding onto the ball, and Clemson is pretty good at taking it away. If that trend holds, it’s going to be tough for the Hokies to win this game.

Giving a team as efficient on offense as Clemson (currently 26th in the nation in terms of offensive efficiency) extra chances to score is a bad idea. The Hokies lost the turnover battle 17-10 to Georgia Tech in their loss in Atlanta and 14-7 in their home loss to Wake Forest. Forward Tobi Lawal and guard “Little Poppa Pump” Bradon Rechsteiner have both struggled with turnovers this season, coughing the ball up around 2.5 times a game. Look for Clemson’s sticky defense to force Tech to go the long way around on offense. The Tigers are the best team in the nation in terms of forcing opponents to use clock on offense. The longer Tech has the ball and the more passes they attempt, the better it is for Clemson.

Inside scoring is another spot where the Tigers should have a decisive advantage. Tech is allowing teams to shoot 54.8% from two (302nd in the nation) this season. Clemson isn’t great at scoring inside the arc, hitting 51.8% (153rd) from two, but the combination of Ian Schieffelin and Viktor Lakhin should find the going easier against Virginia Tech. Their frontcourt combination of Tobi Lawal (6’8”) at power forward and Mylyjael Poteat (6’9”) at center leaves a lot to be desired in terms of rim protection. Look for the Clemson guards, led by Chase Hunter, to attack the paint all game.

This could also be an opportunity for Ian to polish his post-game ahead of the back half of the ACC schedule.

Virginia Tech is going to need help from Clemson in this game. If the Tigers play anything close to their “B game” on Saturday, I don’t think the Hokies have much of a chance. The Tigers are too good on offense, and Virginia Tech isn’t particularly good on defense.

The only way forward I see for Tech is to play a game similar to the one they played in their win over NC State. They put enough points on the board in that one because they got hot from three, hitting 11-22 from behind the arc, including a 3-3 performance from leading scorer Tobi Lawal and a 3-4 performance from Jaden Schutt.

The three-point line is the one place where Tech could potentially hurt the Tigers. They’re currently hitting 36.2% (70th) of their three-point attempts. That’s not great, but that—along with offensive rebounding (72nd)—are the only two areas where they are ranked in the top 100 in KenPom.

The problem they run into is that Clemson is currently shooting 39.2% (8th) from behind the arc. Still, shooting on the road can be tricky in college basketball and can act as a great equalizer. Clemson shot 33% (8-24) from three in their road loss to Louisville and would need to replicate something similar—both in terms of volume and percentage—to lose on the road in Blacksburg.

As long as they don’t fall in love with a three-point shot that isn’t falling and remember to work inside-out on offense to get quality outside looks, the Tigers should win this game.

Prediction

KenPom

Clemson – 72

Virginia Tech – 63

Confidence – 80%

Drew

Clemson – 77

Virginia Tech – 63

Clemson is the better team and has handled its business on the road against opponents ranked outside of the KenPom top 100 this season. Virginia Tech is ranked 170th and hasn’t exactly been stellar at home this season. The Tigers are too talented and experienced to get drawn into the kind of rock fight Tech needs to win this game.

As long as Clemson breaks 70, they should be bringing a dub back home to Tiger Town. I think they put up 77 and force Tech’s offense into an unsustainable number of turnovers.

Of course, I could also be totally wrong.