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Bracketology Bubble Watch: Virginia, Providence face must-win situations in conference semifinal games

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Bracketology Bubble Watch: Virginia, Providence face must-win situations in conference semifinal games


CBS Sports Graphic

The losers of Thursday’s four double bubble games are all on the outside looking in on Friday morning. Seton Hall is the first team out, though, so the Pirates have the best chance of floating back into the field after their loss to St. John’s in the Big East quarterfinals.

With the loss by Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Tournament, we have our first bid-stealer of the season. Maybe it’s the second if Indiana State is an at-large team. All of the top four seeds in the A-10 Tournament lost on Thursday, including projected 10-seed Dayton.

Thursday’s bubble winners all get a chance on Friday at the kind of win that could seal the deal for them. Virginia is the only exception, needing to win the conference title in order to make the field. The Cavaliers face NC State on Friday after the Wolfpack stunned 2-seed Duke on Thursday.

Some of these teams may not have to win to stay in the bracket. The committee has to fill the bracket, and every team near the cut line on either side of it will lose its last game.

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All times Eastern.

Check out Palm’s latest bracket, full field of 68 and Bubble Watch at the Bracketology hub

Bubble teams in action Friday

NCAA Tournament locks

Locks based on résumé: 31 | AQ bids secured: 14 | At-large spots remaining: 5

ACC

3

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Duke, North Carolina, Clemson

Big East

3

UConn, Marquette, Creighton

Big Ten

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3

Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin

Big 12

7

Houston, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, BYU, Texas Tech, Texas

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Pac-12

2

Arizona, Washington State

MWC

5

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San Diego State, Utah State, Nevada, Colorado State, Boise State

SEC

6

Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida

WCC

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2

Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga

Near the cut line

Note – all references to NCAA Tournament selection records and trends based on NET rankings excludes the 2021 tournament. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of non-conference games, those rankings are not reliable enough to be considered.

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Don Scott re-elected as Speaker of Virginia House of Delegates

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Don Scott re-elected as Speaker of Virginia House of Delegates


RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — The Virginia House of Delegates unanimously re-elected Don Scott into another term as Speaker on Wednesday.

Scott was elected the first Black Speaker in Virginia’s 406-year history back in 2024, and his re-election on Wednesday, Jan. 14 marks the first time a Virginia Speaker has served back to back terms since Speaker Howell in 2018, per a release.

“When I first picked up this gavel, I said I wasn’t holding it for myself,” Scott said after the vote. “That remains true today. I hold it for the next generation – for the next Virginian who will live in a better Commonwealth than the one we know today because of the work we do in this chamber. For the people who may never know our names, but whose lives will be shaped by the choices we make here. That is the responsibility of this House.”

This re-election comes before the General Assembly is about to start a new legislative session.

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Five takeaways from Virginia basketball’s 79-70 win vs. No. 20 Louisville

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Five takeaways from Virginia basketball’s 79-70 win vs. No. 20 Louisville


The Virginia Cavaliers earned a 79-70 win over the No. 20 Louisville Cardinals on Tuesday night, claiming their first ranked-win of the Ryan Odom era in emphatic fashion against a tough ACC opponent on the road.

Virginia went on a 14-0 run to start the game, but Louisville responded with an 8-0 run to shrink the deficit. Although Louisville never managed to take the lead, some hot stretches frazzled Virginia, resulting in scrambled defense and a rushed offense for the back end of the first half.

While Virginia’s second half was cleaner, both teams struggled with foul trouble, with Virginia tallying 22 fouls to Louisville’s 21. The whistles were consistent on either end of the court – but frustrating and stunted momentum.

Familiar face Isaac McKneely had his best game in a Louisville uniform to date, leading the Cardinals in scoring with 23 points. His five made threes were all too familiar for Wahoo fans.

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While Virginia showcased some strong stretches, there’s a lot to learn from the ranked, ACC matchup. Here are our five takeaways for the win over Louisville.

Malik Thomas steps up while Thijs De Ridder goes quiet

The graduate student guard had a statement game, leading the team in scoring with 19 points and hitting 6-of-8 from beyond the arc. He tallied five rebounds and three assists, but paid for it in four turnovers in his 25 minutes of play.

It’s a welcome sign for Thomas, who is rounding into shooting form after starting the season below his career average (37.4%). After going 0-for-5 from deep against Stanford on Saturday, he was in takeover mode against the Cardinals.

Thijs De Ridder coughed the ball up five times. But, unlike Thomas, didn’t make up for it, offensively. He contributed a quiet nine points, shooting 0-for-3 from the arc while picking up eight rebounds. The team’s leading scorer displayed some clean post defense early on, but was slow on the help as the game progressed.

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Even in imperfect games, Virginia’s talent carries them through

The team’s talent is remarkable. For starters, Virginia has nearly a full roster of three-point shooters. Even against Louisville when shooters like De Ridder goes 0-for-3, Chance Mallory finishes 0-for-4, and Tillis shoots 0-for-1, the team still hit 41% from behind the arc – led by Thomas’s statement 6-for-8.

To have enough depth to make up for three dry shooters is an X-factor Virginia isn’t used to having.

Not to mention the team’s 79% success from the line (23-for-29) compared to Louisville’s 67% (12-for-18). With consistent (and some questionable) whistles, the team’s foul shooting was reliable and, in many games that end foul-for-foul, will prove decisive if they continue to improve at the charity stripe.

Whether it’s three-point shooting or the shot-blockers in the post, the team is fueled by talent – so much so that even technically imperfect games against Louisville stand out on the stat sheet and end with a clear victory. The challenge for the ‘Hoos isn’t whether they have championship talent, but whether they can consistently – and cleanly – execute come March. UVA just beat a respected, ranked conference team. But what matters more is if Virginia can still learn from and improve after victory, since the lessons tend to be more obvious in defeat.

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The Wahoo defense lacked some fundamentals

While Johann Grunloh and De Ridder started the game with strong defense, guarding the rim with minimal fouls and textbook big-man play. But, defense got sloppy, with guards trailing on the drive and lacking solid help defense – allowing too many buckets from the paint.

In a statistical sense, the ‘Hoos look strong – especially when considering nine blocks and 30 defensive rebounds. In a more technical sense, Virginia lacked some defensive fundamentals. While they tightened it up in the second half, most of the players struggled with on-ball defense, with guys like Dallin Hall and Sam Lewis repeatedly failing to stay in front of their man and guarding along the hip. Plus, the help defense was slow–with Louisville succeeding on uncontested or poorly contested drives to the basket. In the end, Virginia gave up 26 points in the paint, compared to Louisville giving up only 12.

While a number of players were getting beaten off the dribble, Jacari White showcased impressive footwork and made a noticeable difference on the floor. His contributions go beyond the stat sheet and are in the sound defensive play that often isn’t talked about.

Virginia’s rushed offense counted on the three – maybe too much

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There’s no argument that Virginia is now a three-point threat. They make a lot of them. The team shot 41% from beyond the arc – an encouraging team statistic. The bigs started the game with a couple of statement threes. But once the lead crept in during the first half, the team rushed their offense, forcing the fast break or taking the first shot – not the best one.

While it worked out in the end, Virginia does better when they set up their offense. In fact, for much of this season, they’ve displayed some beautiful, textbook ball movement that sets them up for the perimeter shot or the dump down low. After Louisville started to close on their deficit in the first half, Virginia took too many fast breaks and early-shot-clock threes. While they made enough, with their talent, they could have secured a run-away game. Their rushed offense led to 13 team turnovers for Virginia—which Louisville converted into 19 points.

Against Louisville, Virginia showed that their offense can get frazzled. And when it does, they put a lot of trust in the three. On Tuesday, guys like Thomas made it count. But, the shots won’t always fall.

Virginia has a deep bench–and Odom is using it well

Consistent substitutions are becoming a part of head coach Ryan Odom’s philosophy. As we’ve seen all season, ten players hit the court for double digit minutes against Louisville – which compares starkly to Bennett-area basketball that relied on the first six or seven players.

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Virginia’s roster has depth, and he’s regularly subbing in players – sometimes two or three at a time. And, it’s a strategic move. First, the opponent doesn’t get the chance to base their defensive game plan around a single star player. Instead, opponents like Louisville are forced to defend the entire roster, keeping them on their toes.

Plus, it keeps Virginia’s players fresh and allows for correction on the court, instead of expecting guys to play through whatever funk they may fall in.

In the long term, it may even be a retention strategy. If players feel like they’re getting a fair slice of the game–and contributing to it–they may feel more allegiance to the program or see more room for opportunity for their own development.

Regardless, it contributes to a team mentality. With a stacked roster, it likely fuels some unselfish basketball.



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Virginia Election Results 2026

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Virginia Election Results 2026




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