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Potential Tropical Cyclone One expected to strengthen before landfall. See spaghetti models

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Potential Tropical Cyclone One expected to strengthen before landfall. See spaghetti models



The system is expected to become tropical storm before landfall Wednesday

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  • Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to become Tropical Storm Alberto.
  • Landfall is expected late Wednesday.
  • The system is very large, with tropical-storm-force winds extending 290 miles northeast of the center.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of the Texas coast ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone One, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

The system is expected to strengthen and is likely to become a tropical storm by Wednesday before approaching the western Gulf Coast late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Wednesday.

If it does become a tropical storm, it’ll become the first named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, Alberto.

➤ Track all active storms

➤ Excessive rainfall forecast

The National Hurricane Center warned the system is very large: with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles to the northeast of the center.

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Heavy rain is forecast to extend well north of the center of the storm, spreading into portions of central Texas, according to AccuWeather.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain across South Texas and into northeastern Mexico, with up to 15 inches possible, NHC forecasters said.

AccuWeather is predicting over half a foot of rain across parts of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with up to 30 inches possible in the hardest-hit areas.

“Very warm waters in this area of the Gulf, as well as low wind shear will make this a conducive environment for the tropical rainstorm to strengthen,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone One: What you need to know

  • Location: 420 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas
  • Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph
  • Movement: north at 6 mph
  • Pressure: 999 mb
  • Next advisory: 8 a.m.

Watches, warnings issued across Florida, Texas, Gulf Coast

For an explanation of what the watches and warnings mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.

  • Tropical storm warning: The Texas coast from Port O’Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande.
  • Tropical storm watch: The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

How strong is Potential Tropical Cyclone One and where is it going?

At 5 a.m. EDT, Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located about 420 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas, or 350 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico. Latitude 21.3 North, longitude 93.0 West.

The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday, and the system is likely to approach the western Gulf Coast late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph, with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 80 percent.
  • Formation chance through 7 days: high, 80 percent.

The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles to the northeast of the center, the National Hurricane Center said.

Spaghetti models for Potential Tropical Cyclone One

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

➤ Track Potential Tropical Cyclone One

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Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Potential Tropical Cyclone One

  1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.
  2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico and South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across Central America into northeast Mexico.
  3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast beginning Tuesday morning and continuing through midweek.
  4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Wednesday over portions of the Texas coast south of Port O’Connor, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect, and over portions of northeastern Mexico.

Current forecast: Where is Potential Tropical Cyclone One going and how strong could it get?

  • 12 hours: 40 mph
  • 24 hours: 45 mph. Would be a tropical storm.
  • 36 hours: 50 mph
  • 48 hours: 50 mph as it moves inland.
  • 60 hours: 35 mph

What impact could Potential Tropical Cyclone One have and what areas could be affected?

  • Storm surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
    • Sargent, Texas, to Sabine Pass, Texas: 2-4 feet
    • Galveston Bay: 2-4 feet
    • Mouth of the Rio Grande, Texas, to Sargent, Texas: 1-3 feet
    • Sabine Pass, Texas, to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana: 1-3 feet
  • The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
  • Rainfall: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.
  • Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Wednesday.

Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?

What do tropical storm watches, warnings from NHC mean?

What is storm surge? Graphics explain the deadly weather event

Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.



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John Cornyn makes campaign stop at Texas-Mexico border

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John Cornyn makes campaign stop at Texas-Mexico border

HIDALGO — During a visit to the border Friday, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn said changes in immigration laws should wait until the border is completely secure, a contrast from Republican lawmakers who are willing to explore legal status for immigrant workers to address labor shortages prompted by enforcement efforts at work sites.

Cornyn was part of a group of Republican U.S. senators and Senate hopefuls who flocked to the Rio Grande Valley to praise President Donald Trump’s border policies as they attempt to promote their achievements and shape political narratives ahead of November’s midterm elections.

Aggressive enforcement by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has prompted some unauthorized workers to stay clear of job sites, leading to labor shortages in construction and restaurants. The Valley has been among the areas hardest hit by the worker shortage, prompting a group of local builders to call for solutions to economic struggles in their industry.

U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, an Edinburg Republican, met with the group and expressed support for a visa program for construction workers, akin to the H-2A visa program that allows foreign nationals to work in the agriculture sector.

Cornyn, though, said it was too early to consider such an option.

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“The first thing we need to do is secure the border,” Coryn said during a news conference along the border in the city of Hidalgo. “There is no way that the American people, and certainly my constituents in Texas, would allow us to take another stab at reforming our immigration laws until we’ve got the border secure.”

After securing the border, he said, the next step would be to remove people who “never should have been here in the first place.” Only after that had been accomplished, Cornyn said, should lawmakers delve into changing immigration laws.

Much of Trump’s border policy has been set by executive action. The Republican Congress passed $170 billion in funding for immigration and border enforcement through 2029, making ICE the best-funded law enforcement agency in the country and giving the agency unprecedented recruitment, enforcement, deportation and detention powers. But the effort did not codify many of Trump’s changes to border practices.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who stood beside Cornyn during Friday’s news conference, said he was open to legislation that would address the need for qualified workers but also said the first priority was to secure the border.

“I think we can work in a constructive way on how we come up with a mechanism whereby people who come to this country legally can contribute and be members of our work force,” said Thune, R-South Dakota.

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ICE activity at construction sites has intimidated workers — those unauthorized to live in the U.S. and those with legal authorization — from accepting work, builders say. This labor shortage has prompted construction delays that economists suggest will drive up housing costs.

Absent a change in immigration laws, Cornyn suggested job sectors would benefit from cuts to assistance like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and Medicaid, saying it would encourage people to work.

“If you are an able-bodied young adult, you can’t qualify for food stamps, you can’t qualify for welfare benefits like Medicaid and the like, in order to encourage more people to get off the couch,” Cornyn said. “That’s good for them, good for their families, good for their communities.”

For Cornyn, who is locked in an expensive primary race with Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston, the news conference was also an opportunity to tout a major provision from Republicans’ 2025 mega-bill — reimbursement for Operation Lone Star.

Cornyn publicly stated during spring negotiations that his vote in support of the package was contingent on reimbursing Texas for Gov. Greg Abbott’s border security initiative. Ultimately, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed in July with support from nearly all Republicans and no Democrats, included $13.5 billion in two funds to reimburse states for border security spending.

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Abbott had requested $11.1 billion, and the vast majority of the bill’s money is expected to go to Texas. But six months after the bill’s passage, the Trump administration has yet to allocate funding. State Republicans, led by Cornyn, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and U.S. Rep. August Pfluger, sent a December letter asking the departments of Homeland Security and Justice to prioritize Texas in the disbursement.

“That money will now soon be flowing into the coffers of the state of Texas, to the tune of roughly $11 billion, to do justice — which is to reimburse Texas taxpayers for stepping up and filling the gap when the federal government simply refused to do so,” Cornyn said Friday. “That would not have happened without the leadership of the majority leader and the whip and the direction of the president of the United States, to whom I am very grateful.”

The Cornyn campaign and allied groups have spent more than $40 million in advertising, helping to close Paxton’s initial polling lead. Polls have shown no candidate close to the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff in the March 3 primary.

Cornyn has the backing of Thune and OneNation, a group aligned with the Senate Republican leader that organized Friday’s border trip after spending millions in pro-Cornyn advertising.

Thune on Friday praised Cornyn, whom he beat out to become majority leader in 2024.

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“He has been such an advocate through the years on the issue of border security — foremost expert on it,” Thune said. “Most of us, what we know about the border, we know from him.”

Part of Cornyn’s campaign strategy has been to emphasize his support for Trump in ads and on social media. Thune, Cornyn, other Republican senators and Senate hopeful Michael Whatley, former chair of the Republican National Committee from North Carolina, praised Trump’s border actions, with Cornyn expressing his gratitude for Trump’s leadership in getting the One Big Beautiful Bill passed and for his Border Patrol leadership appointments.

The president’s endorsement — or lack of, thus far — has factored heavily into the state’s Senate primary. It is one of a handful of Republican contests for Senate where Trump has yet to put his thumb on the scale, and the president has said that he likes both Cornyn and Paxton.

Cornyn and Thune have appealed to Trump for his endorsement.

The border trip was also an opportunity for Cornyn’s opponents to press their cases.

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Paxton preemptively criticized Cornyn’s visit in a Thursday statement that noted the senator said a border wall “makes no sense” in a February 2017 speech in Weslaco, among other instances of wall skepticism in early 2017. At the time, Cornyn said technology and personnel are more effective than physical barriers in some areas. On Friday, Cornyn praised the border wall and its outfitting with cameras, sensors and other technology.

“His 40-plus year career has been spent fighting for amnesty for illegals, cutting deals with Democrats, trying to stop President Trump, and standing in the way of building the wall,” Paxton said in the statement. “Texans aren’t going to forget how Cornyn’s betrayed our country, and no last minute trip to the border to try and act tough is going to change that.”

Hunt posted an ad on X criticizing Cornyn’s previous apprehension for a border wall.

“Now that Trump’s secured our border, John Cornyn wants to take the credit for the wall he tried to block,” the ad said.

Reporting in the Rio Grande Valley is supported in part by the Methodist Healthcare Ministries of South Texas, Inc.

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Disclosure: Methodist Healthcare Ministries of South Texas, Inc. has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here.



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SMU secures commitment from Texas A&M transfer TE Theo Melin Öhrström

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SMU secures commitment from Texas A&M transfer TE Theo Melin Öhrström


One of the biggest questions facing Rhett Lashlee and his SMU football program this offseason is how the Mustangs will replenish the tight end position.

Not only did SMU’s tight ends coach leave, but the Mustangs are losing their top four tight ends from the 2025 roster. RJ Maryland, Matthew Hibner and Stone Eby all graduated and redshirt sophomore Adam Moore entered the transfer portal.

SMU began its rebuild of the tight ends room with a commitment from Texas A&M transfer Theo Melin Öhrström.

Melin Öhrström entered the portal on Dec. 26 after four years with the Aggies. The Stockholm, Sweden native appeared in 40 games for Texas A&M, catching 29 balls for 352 yards and three touchdowns. In 2025, the 6-foot-6, 257-pound tight end made four starts and caught 19 passes for 168 yards and a touchdown.

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Melin Öhrström redshirted in 2022, so he has one year of eligibility remaining and will have a chance to secure a bigger role during his final collegiate season. He chose the Mustangs over Houston, Kansas State and Auburn

Find more college sports coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.

Find more SMU coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.



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Arizona State transfer RB Raleek Brown commits to Texas

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Arizona State transfer RB Raleek Brown commits to Texas


Recruiting a running back out of the NCAA transfer portal wasn’t clean and simple after the winter window opened last week, but the Texas Longhorns were able to land a huge commitment from Arizona State transfer Raleek Brown on Thursday.

The 5’9, 196-pounder has one season of eligibility remaining.

Texas offered Brown out of Mater Dei High School in Santa Ana (Calif.) when he was a top-100 prospect in the 2022 recruiting class. A consensus four-star prospect ranked as the No. 3 running back nationally in the 247Sports Composite rankings, Brown committed to home-state USC without taking any other official visits.

Brown’s career with the Trojans didn’t go as planned, however — after flashing as a freshman with 227 yards on 42 carries (5.4 avg) with three touchdowns and 16 receptions for 175 yards (10.97 avg) and three touchdowns, Brown moved to wide receiver as a sophomore and only appeared in two games, recording three catches for 16 yards and a touchdown.

Wanting to play running back again, Brown transferred to Arizona State in 2024, but was limited by a hamstring injury to 48 yards of total offense.

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In 2025, though, Brown finally had his breakout season with 186 carries for 1,141 yards and four touchdowns, adding 34 receptions for 239 yards and two touchdowns. Brown forced 53 missed tackles last season, 67 percent of the total missed tackles forced by Texas running backs, and more than half of his rushing yardage came after contact.

Brown ran a sub 4.5 40-yard dash and sub-11 100-meter dash in high school and flashed that explosiveness with runs of 75 yards and 88 yards in 2025, so Brown brings the speed that the Longhorns need with 31 yards over 10 yards, as well as proven route-running and pass-catching ability.

At Arizona State, the scheme leaned towards gap runs, but Brown has the skill set to be an excellent outsize zone back if Texas head coach Steve Sarksian decides that he wants to major in that scheme once again.

With one running back secured from the portal, the question becomes whether Sarkisian and new running backs coach Jabbar Juluke want to add a big-bodied back to the roster or are comfortable with rising redshirt sophomore Christian Clark and incoming freshman Derrek Cooper handling that role.



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