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Potential Tropical Cyclone One expected to strengthen before landfall. See spaghetti models

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Potential Tropical Cyclone One expected to strengthen before landfall. See spaghetti models



The system is expected to become tropical storm before landfall Wednesday

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  • Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to become Tropical Storm Alberto.
  • Landfall is expected late Wednesday.
  • The system is very large, with tropical-storm-force winds extending 290 miles northeast of the center.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of the Texas coast ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone One, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

The system is expected to strengthen and is likely to become a tropical storm by Wednesday before approaching the western Gulf Coast late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Wednesday.

If it does become a tropical storm, it’ll become the first named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, Alberto.

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➤ Excessive rainfall forecast

The National Hurricane Center warned the system is very large: with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles to the northeast of the center.

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Heavy rain is forecast to extend well north of the center of the storm, spreading into portions of central Texas, according to AccuWeather.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain across South Texas and into northeastern Mexico, with up to 15 inches possible, NHC forecasters said.

AccuWeather is predicting over half a foot of rain across parts of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with up to 30 inches possible in the hardest-hit areas.

“Very warm waters in this area of the Gulf, as well as low wind shear will make this a conducive environment for the tropical rainstorm to strengthen,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone One: What you need to know

  • Location: 420 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas
  • Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph
  • Movement: north at 6 mph
  • Pressure: 999 mb
  • Next advisory: 8 a.m.

Watches, warnings issued across Florida, Texas, Gulf Coast

For an explanation of what the watches and warnings mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.

  • Tropical storm warning: The Texas coast from Port O’Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande.
  • Tropical storm watch: The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

How strong is Potential Tropical Cyclone One and where is it going?

At 5 a.m. EDT, Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located about 420 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas, or 350 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico. Latitude 21.3 North, longitude 93.0 West.

The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday, and the system is likely to approach the western Gulf Coast late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph, with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 80 percent.
  • Formation chance through 7 days: high, 80 percent.

The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles to the northeast of the center, the National Hurricane Center said.

Spaghetti models for Potential Tropical Cyclone One

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

➤ Track Potential Tropical Cyclone One

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Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Potential Tropical Cyclone One

  1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.
  2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico and South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across Central America into northeast Mexico.
  3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast beginning Tuesday morning and continuing through midweek.
  4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Wednesday over portions of the Texas coast south of Port O’Connor, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect, and over portions of northeastern Mexico.

Current forecast: Where is Potential Tropical Cyclone One going and how strong could it get?

  • 12 hours: 40 mph
  • 24 hours: 45 mph. Would be a tropical storm.
  • 36 hours: 50 mph
  • 48 hours: 50 mph as it moves inland.
  • 60 hours: 35 mph

What impact could Potential Tropical Cyclone One have and what areas could be affected?

  • Storm surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
    • Sargent, Texas, to Sabine Pass, Texas: 2-4 feet
    • Galveston Bay: 2-4 feet
    • Mouth of the Rio Grande, Texas, to Sargent, Texas: 1-3 feet
    • Sabine Pass, Texas, to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana: 1-3 feet
  • The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
  • Rainfall: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.
  • Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Wednesday.

Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?

What do tropical storm watches, warnings from NHC mean?

What is storm surge? Graphics explain the deadly weather event

Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.



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Texas reports 48 cyclospora cases and the source is still unknown

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Texas reports 48 cyclospora cases and the source is still unknown


Texas has reported 48 cases of Cyclospora, a foodborne illness caused by a parasite that health experts say can lead to severe gastrointestinal symptoms.

Dr. David Winter, an internal medicine physician with Baylor Scott & White, said cyclospora infections typically increase during the summer. However, he said the current increase affecting several states could become the worst in years.

At least 20 people nationwide have been hospitalized with symptoms that can last for weeks.

“It’s really bad disease right now and sometimes you get in your intestines and that gives you these horrible cramps and gurgling and then diarrhea. In fact, the diarrhea is so bad, they call it explosive diarrhea,” Winter said.

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Cyclospora is caused by a parasite rather than a virus or bacteria. Winter said the parasite multiplies inside the intestines, contributing to recurring symptoms.

“It’s a parasite. It’s not a virus, it is not bacteria. So the parasite, once it gets in your intestine, it starts to multiply. And then when it builds up a certain amount, then it comes out with this explosion, and then it starts multiply again,” Winter said.

The illness spreads through food or water contaminated with infected feces and is rarely transmitted from person to person.

The source of the current outbreak is unknown. Previous outbreaks have been linked to fresh fruits and vegetables, including basil, cilantro, raspberries and snow peas.

Doctors recommend thoroughly washing fresh produce before eating it to help reduce the risk of infection.

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For many people, symptoms can be managed at home, and antibiotics are also effective, according to Winter.

He said patients with severe diarrhea should let their doctor know about their symptoms because many routine stool tests do not automatically screen for cyclospora.

“Most stool tests in laboratories don’t look for this. So you want to be sure and tell your doctor, I’ve got this, quote, explosive diarrhea. I’m cramping, I feel like hell, I have all this fatigue,” Winter said.

While the infection is uncommon, Winter said it can be especially difficult for those who become sick.

“It’s rare, but boy when you get it, it is tough,” Winter said.

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This story was originally reported for broadcast by NBC DFW. AI tools helped convert the story into a digital article, and an NBC DFW journalist edited it again before publication.



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Family demands investigation after US man killed by ICE agent in Texas

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Family demands investigation after US man killed by ICE agent in Texas


The family of a man killed by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent in Texas has called for an investigation into the incident.

The appeal on Wednesday came a day after the ICE agent fatally shot Lorenzo Salgado Araujo in Houston during a traffic stop, the most recent high-profile killing by immigration enforcement agents amid the administration of US President Donald Trump’s mass deportation drive.

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Salgado Araujo’s family said he was working at the time he was killed, driving a crew to a home build in the area. They said he may have been scared that the individuals in the unmarked vehicles that stopped him were trying to steal his tools.

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They further said the Mexican national had lived in the US for 35 years and was working towards getting legal status. He had no criminal record and worked tirelessly to support his three US sons, all US citizens.

“He did not deserve to die. He did not deserve to be reduced to a headline of ‘Mexican man shot and killed by ICE’,” son Ronaldo Salgado said during a news conference.

“He deserved to live a quiet life as Lorenzo Salgado Araujo, a husband, a father and a job creator for dozens of men who also wanted the American dream,” he said.

The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has said Salgado Araujo attempted to ram an ICE agent, who opened fire in response. Prior to that, they said Salgado Araujo’s car had struck an ICE vehicle.

No video or images of the incident have been released, although a bystander recorded its aftermath.

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DHS said Salgado Araujo had been targeted by the agents because he was living in the US without documentation.

While the Trump administration had initially said it would only target criminals in its mass deportation push, it quickly said that it considered anyone in the US without documentation a criminal. Irregularly entering the US is a civil, not a criminal, violation.

Rights groups have accused immigration agents of using “dragnet” techniques under pressure to meet detainment quotas. The Trump administration has denied such quotas exist.

Speaking at the news conference on Wednesday, League of United Latin American Citizens President Roman Palomares said the immigration crackdown has created a country where it is “open season on Latinos” by officers who think they can “shoot and explain later”.

The initial details of the Texas killing resemble the killing of Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis, Minnesota in January. DHS officials initially said that Good, a US citizen, was attempting to ram an ICE agent when she was fatally shot, although video appeared to show her steering around the agent, who opened fire after stepping to the side of her vehicle.

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Just days later, 37-year-old Alex Pretti was fatally shot by a Border Patrol agent and a Customs and Border Protection officer as he sought to document immigration enforcement actions in Minneapolis.

Little has emerged from federal probes into the killings, which came amid an enforcement surge in the city. In a rare move, the Department of Justice declined a separate civil-rights probe into Nicole Good’s killing.

‘Working to give us the American dream’

Speaking at the news conference on Wednesday, Ronaldo Salgado recounted frantically looking for his father at his job site after his mother had been told something bad had happened.

At some point during the search, he was shown the video of his fatally wounded father.

“I recognised him, not from his appearance but from his voice crying for help as he lay on the street,” Salgado said.

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“After nearly 35 years of working to give us the American dream, he made the choice to begin the process of obtaining his American dream through a work permit,” Salgado said.

“We dotted every I, crossed every T, filled every document, and attended every appointment. He was close to obtaining his legal status.”

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum also condemned the killing, saying she was considering legal measures or an appeal to the United Nations.

“There has been another tragic death of one of our compatriots in the United States due to detention issues, even though their only ‘offence’ is not yet having proper documentation,” Sheinbaum said.

The shooting was at least the eighth known death during an encounter with federal immigration officers since the start of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown.

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Triple-digit heat returns to North Texas before weekend storms bring relief

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Triple-digit heat returns to North Texas before weekend storms bring relief


A building system of high pressure is bringing triple-digit temperatures back to North Texas, though the intense heat will be short-lived before a weekend weather shift brings relief and renewed chances of rain.

Wednesday forecast

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We expect partly to mostly sunny skies Wednesday, with high temperatures reaching near 100 degrees across much of the region. While hot and dry conditions will dominate, a low chance of scattered rain showers remains possible, primarily in areas east of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.

The heat is expected to solidify Thursday as the upper-level ridge settles firmly over the area. We have removed all chances of precipitation from Thursday’s forecast, locking in dry conditions and an afternoon high temperature of 100 degrees.

However, relief is on the horizon for the upcoming weekend. The high-pressure ridge will lose its grip on North Texas as it begins to shift westward toward the desert southwest.

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Weekend forecast

By late Saturday and continuing into Sunday, the atmospheric shift will establish a northerly flow aloft. This pattern change is expected to funnel a series of weather disturbances into the region, triggering a return of widespread rain and thunderstorm opportunities.

The unsettled weather pattern is forecast to linger well into next week. The persistent cloud cover and moisture associated with the continuing rain chances will successfully suppress the heat, keeping afternoon highs closer to historical norms for this time of year.

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7-Day forecast

The Source: Information in this article is from the FOX 4 weather team.

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