North Texans showed up in greater numbers for early voting in the 2026 midterm primary compared to recent election cycles, with the number of early voters surging across the region’s four largest counties: Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton.

A look at voter turnout from 2018, 2022 and 2026 showed the same pattern each time: more people are taking part, and both parties are seeing increases in turnout.

Data showed that Democrats are making noticeable progress in counties that have traditionally leaned Republican. At the same time, voter registration has grown significantly, giving both sides a larger pool of potential voters.

Data from the Texas Secretary of State were used to compile Election Day totals for 2018 and 2022. For the remaining dates, Early Voting totals were derived from the county websites themselves, including Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, and Denton.

What do the numbers show?

The bigger picture

Across all four counties, the numbers point to a clear trend: voter participation is growing on both sides of the political divide. Early voting is especially strong in 2026, driven by population growth, competitive primaries and heightened political interest.

Although Republicans still dominate turnout in Collin and Denton, Democrats’ early‑voting surges, including taking the lead in Tarrant, suggest that the region’s electoral map continues to evolve.

The full impact will come into focus once Election Day results are final, but for now, 2026 is shaping up to be the most energized North Texas primary in at least a decade.

Primary turnout surges as 2.8 million vote early statewide

Ahead of Election Day on Tuesday, Texas is already seeing what voter data experts are calling a historic primary turnout.

During the 10 days of early voting, roughly 2.8 million people have voted so far in either the Republican or Democratic primary. More people have cast ballots than in any other recent midterm primary, and voter data experts say they expect about the same number of people to show up on Election Day.

The surge appears to be tied, in part, to a highly competitive Democratic primary that voter data analysts say is too close to call based on early vote numbers alone.

Garrett Herrin, CEO of Votehub, said the contest remains exceptionally tight.

“I’m not telling you anything you don’t know, right? But the race is razor thin,” Herrin said.

Herrin said early vote patterns do not show one side dominating geographically, making the outcome difficult to predict.

“There isn’t any sort of dramatic geographic imbalance that clearly signals that one side is running away with it. Instead, turnout looks broad and competitive, and that’s what makes it difficult to call based on early vote data alone,” Herrin said.

County-by-county data compiled by Ryan Data suggested the jump in turnout is not being driven mainly by first-time voters. Instead, analysts said it is coming from voters who typically only participate in November elections but now want a say in the primary.

The data shows 13% of GOP primary voters have only voted in November elections. On the Democratic side, that share is much higher — 28% of early voters in the Democratic primary have only voted in November elections.

Derek Ryan, who compiled the data, said that shift is the defining feature of the race so far.

“Now they’ve decided that, ‘Hey, there’s a contested Senate race in the Democratic primary. Maybe now is the time for me to make my voice heard in that race,’” said Ryan.

Ryan’s data also suggests the age breakdown of early voters has not changed much this year. Just 17% of Republican primary voters are under 50. The Democratic primary electorate is younger, with 41% of early voters so far under the age of 50.

This story was originally reported for broadcast by NBC DFW. AI tools helped convert the story into a digital article, and an NBC DFW journalist edited it again before publication.

One of the two victims in the Austin bar shooting early Sunday has been identified as a Texas Tech University student, according to social media posts from his siblings and from a local politician.

Ryder Harrington, 19, was killed in the shooting that unfolded just outside of a popular beer garden in downtown Austin that also left 14 others injured. The suspect, who was fatally shot by officers, had a history of mental illness, sources familiar with the investigation told NBC News.

“Ryder was the best mix of all the Harrington crew,” his brother, Reed Harrington, wrote on Facebook in a post confirming his death. He said the entire family appreciates the condolences they have received.

Authorities have not yet publicly identified the other victims and are still working to determine a motive in the shooting, including whether it was an act of terrorism. The Austin Police Department is set to have a press conference this afternoon.

“It is unfair, to say the least, that my little brother was only given 19 years on this earth,” Reed Harrington wrote. “Watching the man he had become, and seeing all the lives he touched, leaves me certain that this world was robbed of a great future.”

The brother added, “I don’t think life will ever feel normal again. I have no idea what I’m supposed to do, but I know you will always be there to guide me and be my mentor.”

Harrington’s sister, Reagan Harrington, called him her “best friend” in an Instagram post memorializing him, adding, “I can’t believe you aren’t with me right now.”

“Nothing would be enough to express how special you are to me,” Reagan Harrington wrote. “I’m not sure how we’re meant to work through this — all I can think about is seeing you again.”

Ryan Harrington, the fourth of the siblings, also posted about Harrington’s death on Instagram.

“I’m gonna miss my brother,” Ryan Harrington wrote.

Harrington’s death was also confirmed by his fraternity, Beta Theta Pi. According to the chapter’s Instagram post, Harrington was a part of the Fall 2024 pledge class.

“From the moment he joined our brotherhood, he brought a light that was impossible to ignore,” the Beta Theta Pi post read. “Ryder had a rare ability to truly enjoy life to make people laugh, to make moments feel bigger, and to make ordinary days unforgettable.”

Beta Theta Pi will be hosting a candlelight vigil to honor their brother on Monday at 8 p.m., the post said. The chapter also started a GoFundMe to support Harrington’s family.

Speaker of the Texas state House Dustin Burrows posted about Harrington’s passing on X and said that the teen is the brother-in-law of one of his team members.

“From all accounts, Ryder was exactly the kind of young man who made a difference without even trying — full of life, loyal to his friends, proud to be a Red Raider and a Texan, and someone who showed up for the people around him,” Burrows wrote.

He added that he is praying for the Harrington family and “everyone who loved Ryder — the number appears to be countless.”

Two killed in early Sunday shooting

Harrington was one of two victims killed in the shooting that broke out early Sunday morning outside of Buford’s, a popular beer garden in downtown Austin. The other victim has not yet been identified.

Of the 14 injured, three were taken to the hospital in critical condition, said Robert Luckritz, chief of the county’s emergency medical services. Their conditions were not immediately available as of Monday.

The shooter has been identified as 53-year-old Ndiaga Diagne. Officers shot and killed him shortly after the attack, police said.

Diagne was a Senegalese national and a naturalized U.S. citizen living in Pflugerville, Texas, four law enforcement officials told NBC News. At the time of the shooting, he wore a sweatshirt that said “Property of Allah,” and a shirt underneath bearing an Iranian-flag theme.

Diagne appeared to have acted alone and had no ties to the state, according to sources who emphasized that the investigation is in its preliminary stages.

A Homeland Security official told NBC News that Diagne first entered the U.S. on March 13, 2000, on a B-2 tourist visa. He became a lawful permanent resident in 2006 based on marriage to a U.S. citizen and a naturalized citizen in 2013, the official said. He was arrested in 2022 in Texas for a collision with vehicle damage, the official said.

On Sunday, Alex Doran, a special agent with the San Antonio FBI field office, said, “There were indicators that on the subject and in his vehicle that indicate potential nexus to terrorism,” but noted that it is “still too early to make a determination on that.”

Austin Police Chief Lisa Davis said at a news conference Sunday that Diagne may have circled Buford’s in his car before rolling his window down, striking patrons on the bar’s front patio using a pistol.

He then parked the car, got out holding a rifle, and shot people who were walking by, Davis said. Officers encountered the man along West Sixth Street, which is when they shot him.

Buford’s is 2 miles from the heart of the University of Texas at Austin campus and less than a mile from the Texas Capitol Building.

Other Texas officials offered their prayers and condolences for the victims, including Gov. Greg Abbott, who warned anyone who “thinks about using the current conflict in the Middle East to threaten Texans.”

He appeared to be talking about the joint military operations of the U.S. and Israeli governments against Iran, which killed the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Texas elected officials and candidates’ response to the deadly shooting in downtown Austin on Sunday quickly turned political, as Republicans sharply criticized the country’s naturalization process and Democrats called for stricter gun reform laws.

Republicans’ rebukes of the immigration system came after media outlets identified the gunman, whom police killed within a minute of arriving at the scene, as a naturalized citizen from Senegal. The Department of Homeland Security said the man entered the United States on a tourist visa in 2000, became a lawful permanent resident by marrying a U.S. citizen in 2006 and was naturalized in 2013.

Shortly before 2 a.m. Sunday, the gunman killed two people and injured 14 others at a bar that sits among several popular nightlife venues on West 6th Street.

Many Texas Republicans, including Gov. Greg Abbott, suggested the gunman wasn’t properly backgrounded before he was granted U.S. citizenship, but did not provide details of what should have prevented his naturalization. When asked about his criminal history, DHS only said the man was arrested in Texas in 2022, after he was a citizen, for “collision with vehicle damage,” a misdemeanor crime typically given when someone leaves the scene of a wreck.

The New York Post reported that gunman, 53-year-old Ndiaga Diagne, was arrested for “illegal vending” in New York City in 2001. Citing unnamed sources, The Post said he was arrested in New York three other times between 2008 and 2016, but those cases are sealed. The Post did not report on whether he was convicted of any crimes.

At least one GOP candidate for attorney general has called for an audit into immigrants who are in the country legally.

“Audit all ‘legal’ immigrants’ papers and deport as many as possible,” Aaron Reitz said on X.

Reitz and others also voiced their opposition to Islam, which has become a key campaign pillar for some Texas Republicans competing in Tuesday’s GOP primary. The gunman wore a sweatshirt emblazoned with the words “Property of Allah” and a shirt with a design of the Iranian flag, according to the Associated Press. The shooting happened after the United States and Israel bombed Iran.

Austin police did not disclose a motive for the shooting, but the FBI is investigating it as a potential act of terrorism, the Associated Press reported late Sunday.

The Texas chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations, an American Muslim civil rights group, condemned the attack in a statement Sunday and rejected any efforts to blame the whole community based on one individual’s action.

“We encourage elected officials, law enforcement, faith leaders, and community members to come together to support the families of the victims and reaffirm our shared commitment to public safety,” the organization’s statement said.

Abbott and state Rep. James Talarico, an Austin Democrat running for U.S. Senate, quarreled on X about the shooting. Abbott said that “allowing unvetted immigrants who are hostile to America, who are loyal to our adversaries like Iran, must end. This was an act of terror, James.”

“The way to end it is to end the current open immigration policies,” he continued. “You and your immigration policies would make America less safe.”

Talarico responded to Abbott by saying “dangerous people should not be allowed into the country. Dangerous people should not be allowed to get guns. Texans understand this — you apparently don’t.”

Austin Police Association President Michael Bullock criticized Talarico on X for politicizing the incident.

“With all due respect sir – now is not the time. All of the information has not come out. How can policy be made on incomplete information?” he said. “The action that needed to happen did – officers heroically ended the violence.”

“This applies to all candidates and elected officials regardless of party,” he continued. ”Now is the time to focus on the victims and first responders impacted, not campaigns.”

U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, who is also running for the GOP nomination to be state attorney general, posted alleged details about the gunman’s immigration to America and naturalization. He said the gunman was granted legal residency during George W. Bush’s administration, “amid GOP celebration of the joys of ‘melting pot’ legal immigration.”

“This is why we are losing our country, our immigration system is a joke, and should PAUSE ALL immigration,” Roy said.

Naturalization is the legal process of becoming a citizen after meeting certain requirements.

Denise Gilman, director of the Immigration Clinic at the University of Texas at Austin, said there has long been extensive vetting in the naturalization process, including criminal background checks. She also said immigrants can’t immediately become citizens without first going through prior steps, such as becoming a lawful permanent resident, that require scrutiny.

“Naturalization is just the last step of many steps that all require vetting,” she said.

Immigrants are eligible for naturalization if they are 18 years old or older and have been green card holders for at least five years (three years if they are married to a U.S. citizen). They also have to take tests proving they’re able to speak, read and write in English. As of last fall, the Trump administration added more requirements, such as a more rigorous civics test, and having to prove to an immigration officer that they are “a person of good moral character.”

When asked about Diagne’s reported arrests, Gilman said generally arrests can be considered when evaluating moral character or discretion but will not automatically bar green card status or naturalization. Certain convictions, however, may result in actual bars.

“It really depends on the nature of the crimes involved,” she said.

Around 818,500 people were naturalized in the fiscal year of 2024, according to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, which has not published 2025 data yet — nearly 10% lived in Texas. The total was a 7% decrease from 2023, the agency said. From 2022 to 2024, the country has added more than 2.6 million new citizens through naturalization.

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, who is up for reelection this year, said on Fox News that the shooting underscores “the importance of vetting people before they come across the border,” and is an example of “what happens when people become radicalized.”

Cornyn blamed the Biden administration for having “open border policies that let who knows what into the country,” Cornyn said.

Texas Democrats, meanwhile, responded to the shooting by pushing for stronger gun laws, but did not provide specifics on what policies would have prevented the man from obtaining weapons. Austin police also did not release details on how the man obtained the two firearms they say he used in the shooting.

Republicans control both chambers of the Texas Legislature and have routinely loosened gun restrictions while Democrats’ bills to curb access gain little traction.

Austin-based U.S. Reps. Greg Casar and Lloyd Doggett also denounced gun violence, but did not issue any specific policy proposals.

“We must end America’s gun violence epidemic,” Casar said in a post on X. “Americans should be able to have fun at a bar without it turning into an unspeakable nightmare like this one — and I will redouble my efforts in Congress to prevent the next tragedy like this.”

Doggett said: “Gun violence is preventable. This devastating loss of life was preventable. Until Republicans find the courage to say no to the [National Rifle Association] our country will be plagued with more tragedies.”

Disclosure: University of Texas at Austin has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here.