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Tennessee population could hit 8 million in two decades. What it could mean for the state’s biggest cities

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Tennessee population could hit 8 million in two decades. What it could mean for the state’s biggest cities


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Tennessee’s population is expected to reach nearly 8 million in less than two decades. According to the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee is expected to be home to 7.94 million residents by 2040 — that’s a 13% increase from the 2022 population of 7.05 million, for which data is most recently available.

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Between 2020 and 2030, Tennessee is projected to experience an annual population growth rate of 0.82%, an increase of approximately 600,000 people. According to the data, that’s 35,000 more people than were added between 2010 and 2020. A period of steady but smaller population gains will follow and is expected to continue through 2070, when the population is expected to reach 9,250,000.

“At the state level, the amount of population growth during the 2020s will feel similar to the gains we saw last decade,” said Matt Harris, Boyd Distinguished Professor of Health Economics and co-author of the findings. “But as the baby boom generation reaches the later stages of life, a rising number of deaths will begin to slow Tennessee’s population increases.”

Per university research, older adults are expected to experience the highest population increase of all the age groups. The Volunteer State is also expected to grow more racially and ethnically diverse.

Here’s how else Tennessee is expected to grow at both the local and state level.

Which Tennessee cities grew the most? See how population shifted according to the U.S. Census

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A growing population of older adults

By 2040, almost 20% of the state’s population is expected to be aged 65 and older. According to research, that’s a 17% increase and a growth of 306,000 people from 2022. By 2040, people between 65-74 (815,120) will be the dominant age group among older adults, following behind will be people between 75-84 (506,795) and finally people 85 and over (204,895).

According to Harris, a growing population of older adults will not only affect the health care system, but will also increase the need for more housing, transportation and other types of personal care throughout the decades.

Age groups younger than 65 are also expected to grow, however, those populations will grow at a much smaller rate. For example, populations between 25-52 are expected to grow by 11%, while populations under 20 are expected to grow just by 2%.

A more racially and ethnically diverse Tennessee

More than half of the state’s projected population growth can be attributed to Hispanics, Black or African Americans or people who are of other races or more than one race.

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The largest increase will be among Hispanics, who will see an increase from approximately 450,000 in 2022to 754,000 over the next 20 years — a 6.4% increase. By 2040, the Hispanic population is expected to make up 10% of Tennessee residents. Asian American, Pacific Islander, and Native American populations will see a similar increase, growing from 307,00 to 470,000 by 2040.

While populations of Black and white Tennesseans are expected to grow as well, the share of the state’s population that is white or Black will decrease. The Black population will decrease from 16.4% to 15.4% and the white population will decrease from 73% to 69% by 2040.

How will the Nashville area population change compared to other Tennessee cities?

The Nashville Metro Statistical Area, which includes Davidson, Murfreesboro and Franklin, is projected to see a 28% growth rate in 2040, bringing the total population to 2,642,779.

The Knoxville area will experience an 11% increase in 2040 bringing its total population to 1,038,122. The Chattanooga area is projected to experience a 13% increase in 2040, bringing the total population 474,768. On the other hand, the Memphis area is projected to experience a 3.4% decrease in population, lowering its 2040 population to 986, 741.

Methodology

The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research developed its population estimates using a cohort component model. Projections were conducted at the county level for each combination of race, sex and age, using internal data well as from the United States Census Bureau and the Tennessee Department of Health.

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In order to determine individual areas’ population by race, sex and age for each year, information about birth rates, deathr rates and net migration was factored.

To learn more about the methodology, visit tnsdc.utk.edu.

Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Contact her at Dleyva@gannett.com or follow her on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @_leyvadiana



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Acuff’s big night pushes Arkansas past Tennessee in SEC opener

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Acuff’s big night pushes Arkansas past Tennessee in SEC opener


FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Conference play has a way of revealing what teams really are, and Arkansas fans it’s a positive omen for the rest of the season.

Behind a career-high 29 points from freshman guard Darius Acuff Jr., the Razorbacks opened league play Saturday with an 86-75 victory over Tennessee at Bud Walton Arena.

After starting 0-5 last season, but having to battle their way to a Sweet 16 spot, they showed it’s not the end of the world. Now everybody will see what happens when they start strong.

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Arkansas improved to 11-3 overall and 1-0 in the SEC, snapping a short run of slow conference starts while giving the home crowd a reason to settle in for winter.

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The Volunteers arrived with a reputation for toughness and efficiency, and they lived up to that billing early, trading baskets and refusing to let the Hogs separate.

Tennessee shot well most of the afternoon and stayed within reach even when Arkansas briefly surged in the first half.

The difference was not dominance but steadiness, especially when the game tightened late.

Arkansas leaned on balance, patience, and the calm of a freshman who played like he had been here before.

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Acuff shot 9 of 16 from the field and knocked down the biggest shot of the day, a three-pointer with 2:09 left that pushed the Razorbacks’ lead to 79-68.

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The basket came just as Tennessee threatened to turn a close game into a coin flip.

“I was just trying to make the right play,” Acuff said. “Coach tells us to be confident and take our shots with conviction.”

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Arkansas Razorbacks coach John Calipari during the first half against the Tennessee Volunteers at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Arkansas finds rhythm late

That confidence spread.

Meleek Thomas added 18 points, Malique Ewin finished with 12, and Karter Knox chipped in 11 as Arkansas placed four players in double figures.

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No single run blew the game open, but one stretch midway through the second half tilted the floor.

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Arkansas used an 18-5 run over 6 minutes and 37 seconds to flip a five-point deficit into an eight-point lead.

During that stretch, Tennessee missed eight straight shots and managed only two field goals on its next ten attempts.

The Razorbacks did not rush offense or chase highlights.

They waited for good looks, attacked the rim, and trusted the whistle.

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Arkansas shot 29 of 33 from the free-throw line, quietly building a cushion that Tennessee never fully erased.

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The Volunteers made life difficult with efficient shooting, finishing at 49 percent from the floor.

Amari Evans led Tennessee with 17 points and did not miss a shot, going 7 for 7.

But free throws told a different story. Tennessee went 12 of 23 at the line, leaving points behind that mattered when possessions shrank.

“We stuck to the process,” Arkansas’ coach said. “We just kept competing and playing our game.”

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Tennessee Volunteers guard Amari Evans (1) drives against Arkansas Razorbacks forward Trevon Brazile (7) during the first half at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

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Useful start to conference play

This was not a loud win, but it was a useful one. Arkansas didn’t overwhelm Tennessee with pace or pressure.

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Instead, the Hogs won with composure, spacing, and an understanding of when to slow the game down.

That matters in a league where possessions tighten and whistles get louder in February.

The Razorbacks finished at 42 percent shooting overall, with Acuff the only Arkansas player above 50 percent from the floor.

They didn’tneed perfection. They needed reliability and got it.

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The crowd of more than 19,000 saw a team comfortable being uncomfortable, a team that didn’t panic when Tennessee crept close.

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That calm showed most clearly in Acuff, whose late three settled both the scoreboard and the building.

Arkansas has reached the Sweet 16 in four of the past five seasons, and this game looked like one that fits that blueprint:

  • Balanced scoring.
  • Free throws made.
  • Mistakes absorbed without unraveling.
  • The SEC does not reward flash in January.
  • It rewards teams that handle moments.
  • The Razorbacks handled this one.

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Arkansas will travel to Ole Miss next, carrying a conference win that counts the same as any other but feels heavier because of how it was earned.

Tennessee returns home to face Texas, searching for answers that were more subtle than glaring.

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Key takeaways

  • Darius Acuff Jr.’s career-high 29 points included the decisive three late.
  • Four Razorbacks scored in double figures, easing pressure throughout the game.
  • Arkansas’ edge at the line separated two evenly matched teams.

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Tennessee’s ‘Ink of Hope Act’ aims to help tattoo artists spot signs of human trafficking

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Tennessee’s ‘Ink of Hope Act’ aims to help tattoo artists spot signs of human trafficking


CHEATHAM COUNTY, Tenn. (WKRN) – Plenty of new laws will go into effect for Tennessee on Jan. 1, 2026, ranging from protecting victims of domestic violence to giving tattoo artists a new tool to help people in danger.

The “Ink of Hope Act” aims to teach tattoo artists how to recognize certain symbols or “brands” and intervene on behalf of human trafficking victims without putting themselves at risk.

“I’ve wanted to tattoo since I was 8,” Blake Ohrt, the owner of Scout’s Honor Tattoo in Ashland City, told News 2. “I watched somebody when I was really young get a tattoo, and I’ve been super fascinated by it… I just worked really hard my whole life and ended up here.”

Ohrt’s dream for as long as he could remember was to open his own tattoo shop, and now that business is about to celebrate its first anniversary.

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“I really hope that people are taking the time and really figuring out who they want to get tattooed by, and maybe doing a little research, making sure that the style is compatible with what you’re wanting to do,” Ohrt said.

However, not everyone who sits in his chair seems willing. He has seen this firsthand a few times.

“People will attempt to set something up for someone else or come in as a pair, and one does the talking and one does not,” Ohrt explained. “Maybe even getting a name of that person and not, you know, I’m not much hearing from the person who’s going to be tattooed.”

When he learned about the “Ink of Hope Act,” he felt it could make a difference.

“Maybe some things that we can catch, like certain specific symbols or maybe placements or things like that, but really, it’s been super big for us,” Ohrt said.

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This legislation will require tattoo artists looking to renew their licenses after Jan. 1, 2026, as well as those receiving their first licenses after that date, to watch a one-hour course offered by an approved nonprofit that focuses on human trafficking. Artists who fail to complete that training by Dec. 31, 2028, will have their licenses invalidated until they comply with the law.

“We have to take extra accountability for that and make sure that we’re also consenting for them, so hopefully everybody takes it seriously,” Ohrt told News 2.

For the employees of this Ashland City tattoo shop, it’s their “scout’s honor” to keep the promise to look out for anyone who sits in their chairs. 



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Saints vs. Titans: Score, live updates from NFL battle in Tennessee

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Saints vs. Titans: Score, live updates from NFL battle in Tennessee


The New Orleans Saints take on the Tennessee Titans in Nashville with both teams looking to build momentum headed into the offseason. This is the place to keep up with the score and live updates.

Saints rookie quarterback Tyler Shough will look to lead his team to its fourth consecutive victory. The Titans will have their own rookie behind center in No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward.

Kellen Moore’s Saints squad has played well on defense late in the season, holding opponents to a total of 43 points total over the last three weeks.

You can follow below for the latest from the game in Tennessee.

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Pregame updates

UPDATED, 10:39 a.m.: Good morning and welcome to the penultimate Times-Picayune live blog for the 2025 New Orleans Saints season (and the last one that actually will be in 2025).

The Saints are indeed eliminated from postseason contention, but it doesn’t really feel like that given how they’ve played in this month of December, which has seen three consecutive wins. Today, the Saints try to make that four in a row in a road meeting with the Tennessee Titans.

The inactives report has just dropped, and the Saints will be even further shorthanded on offense than recent weeks: Wide receiver Mason Tipton is inactive with a groin injury. That means behind Chris Olave, the Saints’ receiver corps will look something like Kevin Austin, Ronnie Bell and maybe a tight end moonlighting as a receiver like Treyton Welch. Alvin Kamara is also out, as expected, meaning Audric Estime and Evan Hull will handle the running back duties.

In short, there’s an awful lot expected of Tyler Shough and the New Orleans defense today if the Saints are going to win their fourth straight.

The bit of good news is that Olave, who missed some practice this week with a back issue, is indeed active and expected to go.

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The game kicks off from Nashville just after noon Central time, but we’ll get you set here and then give live updates throughout the afternoon.



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