Tennessee

Tennessee population could hit 8 million in two decades. What it could mean for the state’s biggest cities

Published

1 year ago

August 29, 2024

Tennessee population could hit 8 million in two decades. What it could mean for the state’s biggest cities

Tennessee’s population is expected to reach nearly 8 million in less than two decades. According to the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee is expected to be home to 7.94 million residents by 2040 — that’s a 13% increase from the 2022 population of 7.05 million, for which data is most recently available.

Between 2020 and 2030, Tennessee is projected to experience an annual population growth rate of 0.82%, an increase of approximately 600,000 people. According to the data, that’s 35,000 more people than were added between 2010 and 2020. A period of steady but smaller population gains will follow and is expected to continue through 2070, when the population is expected to reach 9,250,000.

“At the state level, the amount of population growth during the 2020s will feel similar to the gains we saw last decade,” said Matt Harris, Boyd Distinguished Professor of Health Economics and co-author of the findings. “But as the baby boom generation reaches the later stages of life, a rising number of deaths will begin to slow Tennessee’s population increases.”

Per university research, older adults are expected to experience the highest population increase of all the age groups. The Volunteer State is also expected to grow more racially and ethnically diverse.

Here’s how else Tennessee is expected to grow at both the local and state level.

Which Tennessee cities grew the most? See how population shifted according to the U.S. Census

A growing population of older adults

By 2040, almost 20% of the state’s population is expected to be aged 65 and older. According to research, that’s a 17% increase and a growth of 306,000 people from 2022. By 2040, people between 65-74 (815,120) will be the dominant age group among older adults, following behind will be people between 75-84 (506,795) and finally people 85 and over (204,895).

According to Harris, a growing population of older adults will not only affect the health care system, but will also increase the need for more housing, transportation and other types of personal care throughout the decades.

Age groups younger than 65 are also expected to grow, however, those populations will grow at a much smaller rate. For example, populations between 25-52 are expected to grow by 11%, while populations under 20 are expected to grow just by 2%.

A more racially and ethnically diverse Tennessee

More than half of the state’s projected population growth can be attributed to Hispanics, Black or African Americans or people who are of other races or more than one race.

The largest increase will be among Hispanics, who will see an increase from approximately 450,000 in 2022to 754,000 over the next 20 years — a 6.4% increase. By 2040, the Hispanic population is expected to make up 10% of Tennessee residents. Asian American, Pacific Islander, and Native American populations will see a similar increase, growing from 307,00 to 470,000 by 2040.

While populations of Black and white Tennesseans are expected to grow as well, the share of the state’s population that is white or Black will decrease. The Black population will decrease from 16.4% to 15.4% and the white population will decrease from 73% to 69% by 2040.

How will the Nashville area population change compared to other Tennessee cities?

The Nashville Metro Statistical Area, which includes Davidson, Murfreesboro and Franklin, is projected to see a 28% growth rate in 2040, bringing the total population to 2,642,779.

The Knoxville area will experience an 11% increase in 2040 bringing its total population to 1,038,122. The Chattanooga area is projected to experience a 13% increase in 2040, bringing the total population 474,768. On the other hand, the Memphis area is projected to experience a 3.4% decrease in population, lowering its 2040 population to 986, 741.

Methodology

The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research developed its population estimates using a cohort component model. Projections were conducted at the county level for each combination of race, sex and age, using internal data well as from the United States Census Bureau and the Tennessee Department of Health.

In order to determine individual areas’ population by race, sex and age for each year, information about birth rates, deathr rates and net migration was factored.

To learn more about the methodology, visit tnsdc.utk.edu.

Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Contact her at Dleyva@gannett.com or follow her on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @_leyvadiana

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Tennessee

Former Tennessee Football Legend Accepts SEC Coaching Gig

Published

7 hours ago

January 8, 2026

Press Room

Former Tennessee Football Legend Accepts SEC Coaching Gig

The Tennessee Volunteers have been one of the main teams when it comes to producing talent and sending talent to the NFL, which is something that has often been discovered as a standard for the football program. This is something that has been going on for quite some time and isn’t anything new to the news cycle, as the Vols have been able to produce plenty of talented prospects.

Tennessee is the home of many stars, including some of the best defensive players in SEC history. Guys like Eric Berry have found their way through the Tennessee program and onto the NFL, where they would have legendary careers. However, the defensive side of the football is the only side that has produced plenty of talent, as Tennessee has produced a lot of offensive talent as well. With the likes of Peyton Manning and company, the Vols have shown a great track record in getting talent drafted.

The Vols have produced someone who could be considered as one of the best players to play the Tide end position, as the Knoxville, Tennessee program is the home to Dallas Cowboys legend, Jason Witten. Witten is someone who made the most of his career and has been viewed as a top player at the Tide in position, and someone who is often referred to as a legend for the Cowboys, along with being a legend in the game of football as a whole.

Jason Witten Accepts TE Coach Position For Oklahoma

Oct 10, 2010; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten (82) on the phone in the bench area in the fourth quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Cowboys Stadium. The Titans beat the Cowboys 34-27. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-Imagn Images | Matthew Emmons-Imagn Images

Witten is now taking a new gig, which has him in a huge role inside the Southeastern Conference. The Vols legend is now the tight end coach for the Oklahoma Sooners. The Sooners have had some success out of their tight ends in the past, but the sky is the limit with a guy like Witten coaching up the players. Witten has the opportunity to do really well, as coaching tight ends won’t be an issue, and you have to imagine that he will be able to recruit very well, considering he has a huge name around him, as this is something that we have seen from positional coaches as well as head coaches who have done great work in the league. You have to imagine that the Vols will now have stiff competition for his son, Cooper, who is a five-star recruit for the upcoming 2027 class at the linebacker position.

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Tennessee Football DB Transfer Boo Carter Visits the Vols Rival

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19 hours ago

January 8, 2026

Press Room

Tennessee Football DB Transfer Boo Carter Visits the Vols Rival

The Tennessee Volunteers are looking to land many of the nation’s best players in the transfer portal to replace the players who have already announced they are transferring away from Tennessee. One of the players they lost very early on to the portal, and his plans of entering the portal is Boo Carter.

Carter is someone who has quickly made a name for himself, as he played for the Vols as a freshman. He also played for the Tennessee Vols this past season before suffering an injury that sidelined him for the rest of the season. Carter entered the portal and left an announcement on his X page for those interested. Here is what was said.

“I’d like to take this opportunity to thank The University of Tennessee Coaches, administrators and fans for a wonderful 2 years. Unfortunately my season has been cut short due to injury. I have decided to enter the transfer portal and I am excited about the opportunities going forward!-Boo Carter”

Boo Carter Visits Vanderbilt

Tennessee defensive back Boo Carter (23) pulls on his jersey during Tennessee football preseason practice, in Knoxville, Tennessee, Aug. 6, 2025. | Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Now that the portal is here, he has started to hear from many teams, including a team many anticipated to be in the picture. The Vols DB heard from the Vanderbilt staff and is now reportedly visiting them. This is a school where many of his friends go currently, and a school that has been doing well, but it is no secret that this is one of the Vols’ biggest rivalries.

He is undecided on a possible commitment somewhere, but the reports have started to indicate that the Commodores are a team to watch moving forward. This will be one to watch for the Vols, as there is a good chance they may see Carter next season.

“Dynamic athlete who quickly made an impact on defense and special teams as a true freshman … Earned the starting STAR position and shined while becoming a dangerous weapon as a punt returner as a true freshman in 2024 … Saw action as a slot receiver as well during 2025 spring practices … Early enrollee in January 2024 who participated in Citrus Bowl practices and spring practice before his true freshman season … Has compiled 63 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, two sacks, three forced fumbles, three pass breakups and one interception on defense in his career … Dynamic punt returner who averages 16.0 yards per return in his career … Played in 21 career games and made five starts,” the Tennessee Vols athletics website stated.

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Tennessee Football Misses on Major Transfer Portal Target

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1 day ago

January 7, 2026

Press Room

Tennessee Football Misses on Major Transfer Portal Target

The Tennessee Volunteers have been looking to land the best of the best when it comes to the transfer portal, and they have been targeting the best, but as of recently, all it has been is a bunch of swings and misses.

The Vols have missed yet again, as they have failed to land one of their top targets on their board when it comes to the college football transfer portal at a position that they currently need more than any. That position is the cornerback position, which is one that they need very badly.

The player that they failed to land in this go-around is Troy cornerback Jaquez White. White is one of the better players that the portal has seen at the position, as he was easily named as a top portal target for many. He was seriously looking at Tennessee, and the Vols were ready to bring him in, but instead, he has opted to commit to the Virginia Tech Hokies. The Hokies have done a decent job in the portal thus far, but their portal class has definitely improved following the addition of White.

Whether this is a money thing or the Vols just couldn’t do enough convincing, the point is that they have missed on guys left and right recently. The vision isn’t clear, but fans are hopeful that it will be soon.

Here is what White did in his 2025 season according to the Troy website.

Jaquez White’s 2025 Season

Troy Trojans cornerback Jaquez White (8) tackles Clemson Tigers running back Adam Randall (8) Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025 during the NCAA football game at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

“Earned All-Sun Belt Second Team honors … Ranked third in the league (seventh nationally) with 14 total passes defended and fourth (15th nationally) with 11 pass break ups … Started 12 games and played in all 14 contests … Returned an interception 30 yards for a touchdown in Troy’s victory over Louisiana; added interceptions against Nicholls and in Sun Belt Championship Game at James Madison … Finished season with 67 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss and a sack … Sack came in Troy’s win over South Alabama; added five tackles, a quarterback hurry and a pass break up in the game … Season-best seven tackles against Memphis … Broke up four passes in win at ULM and had a pair at Southern Miss … Troy’s top-rated defender per PFF with an 87.6 rating … Played 879 defensive snaps, second most on the team … Third-rated cornerback in the country (min. 700 snaps) per PFF and fourth-rated cover corner … Held opponents to a 54.5 reception percentage (36-of-66).”