Tennessee
Tennessee population could hit 8 million in two decades. What it could mean for the state’s biggest cities
US centenarian population to surge by 2054, census shows
Projections from the US Census Bureau indicate the centenarian population will quadruple from 101,000 in 2024 to around 422,000 in 2054.
unbranded – Lifestyle
Tennessee’s population is expected to reach nearly 8 million in less than two decades. According to the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee is expected to be home to 7.94 million residents by 2040 — that’s a 13% increase from the 2022 population of 7.05 million, for which data is most recently available.
Between 2020 and 2030, Tennessee is projected to experience an annual population growth rate of 0.82%, an increase of approximately 600,000 people. According to the data, that’s 35,000 more people than were added between 2010 and 2020. A period of steady but smaller population gains will follow and is expected to continue through 2070, when the population is expected to reach 9,250,000.
“At the state level, the amount of population growth during the 2020s will feel similar to the gains we saw last decade,” said Matt Harris, Boyd Distinguished Professor of Health Economics and co-author of the findings. “But as the baby boom generation reaches the later stages of life, a rising number of deaths will begin to slow Tennessee’s population increases.”
Per university research, older adults are expected to experience the highest population increase of all the age groups. The Volunteer State is also expected to grow more racially and ethnically diverse.
Here’s how else Tennessee is expected to grow at both the local and state level.
Which Tennessee cities grew the most? See how population shifted according to the U.S. Census
A growing population of older adults
By 2040, almost 20% of the state’s population is expected to be aged 65 and older. According to research, that’s a 17% increase and a growth of 306,000 people from 2022. By 2040, people between 65-74 (815,120) will be the dominant age group among older adults, following behind will be people between 75-84 (506,795) and finally people 85 and over (204,895).
According to Harris, a growing population of older adults will not only affect the health care system, but will also increase the need for more housing, transportation and other types of personal care throughout the decades.
Age groups younger than 65 are also expected to grow, however, those populations will grow at a much smaller rate. For example, populations between 25-52 are expected to grow by 11%, while populations under 20 are expected to grow just by 2%.
A more racially and ethnically diverse Tennessee
More than half of the state’s projected population growth can be attributed to Hispanics, Black or African Americans or people who are of other races or more than one race.
The largest increase will be among Hispanics, who will see an increase from approximately 450,000 in 2022to 754,000 over the next 20 years — a 6.4% increase. By 2040, the Hispanic population is expected to make up 10% of Tennessee residents. Asian American, Pacific Islander, and Native American populations will see a similar increase, growing from 307,00 to 470,000 by 2040.
While populations of Black and white Tennesseans are expected to grow as well, the share of the state’s population that is white or Black will decrease. The Black population will decrease from 16.4% to 15.4% and the white population will decrease from 73% to 69% by 2040.
How will the Nashville area population change compared to other Tennessee cities?
The Nashville Metro Statistical Area, which includes Davidson, Murfreesboro and Franklin, is projected to see a 28% growth rate in 2040, bringing the total population to 2,642,779.
The Knoxville area will experience an 11% increase in 2040 bringing its total population to 1,038,122. The Chattanooga area is projected to experience a 13% increase in 2040, bringing the total population 474,768. On the other hand, the Memphis area is projected to experience a 3.4% decrease in population, lowering its 2040 population to 986, 741.
Methodology
The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research developed its population estimates using a cohort component model. Projections were conducted at the county level for each combination of race, sex and age, using internal data well as from the United States Census Bureau and the Tennessee Department of Health.
In order to determine individual areas’ population by race, sex and age for each year, information about birth rates, deathr rates and net migration was factored.
To learn more about the methodology, visit tnsdc.utk.edu.
Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Contact her at Dleyva@gannett.com or follow her on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @_leyvadiana
Published on Mar. 3, 2026
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According to ESPN’s latest NFL mock draft, three former Tennessee Volunteers players are projected to be selected in the top 60 picks of the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft. Cornerbacks Jermod McCoy and Colton Hood are both projected to be first-round picks, while wide receiver Chris Brazzell II is projected to be a second-round selection.
Why it matters
The strong NFL Draft projections for Tennessee players highlight the continued talent development and success of the Volunteers football program under head coach Josh Heupel. If these projections hold true, it would mark the first time Tennessee has had two first-round picks and three players selected in the top 60 overall during Heupel’s tenure.
The details
Cornerback Jermod McCoy is projected to be selected 29th overall by the Los Angeles Rams, despite not participating in on-field workouts at the NFL Combine due to a previous ACL injury. Teammate Colton Hood is projected to be the final pick of the first round, going 32nd overall to the Seattle Seahawks. Wide receiver Chris Brazzell II impressed at the Combine with a 4.37 40-yard dash and is projected to be a second-round pick, going 60th overall to the Buffalo Bills.
- The NFL Combine was held in late February 2026.
- Tennessee’s Pro Day workouts are scheduled for the end of March 2026.
- The 2026 NFL Draft will take place in April-May 2026.
The players
Jermod McCoy
A cornerback for the Tennessee Volunteers who is projected to be a first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, despite missing the 2025 season due to an ACL injury.
Colton Hood
A cornerback for the Tennessee Volunteers who is projected to be a first-round pick, going 32nd overall to the Seattle Seahawks in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Chris Brazzell II
A wide receiver for the Tennessee Volunteers who impressed at the NFL Combine with a 4.37 40-yard dash and is projected to be a second-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
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What they’re saying
“If we’re going strictly by talent, McCoy is a top-10 prospect in this class. But he hasn’t played a game since 2024, missing all of last season after suffering an ACL tear in January 2025. We’re still not sure where he’s at in his recovery, as he did not participate in testing or drills at the combine. This gives the Rams — who haven’t drafted a corner in the first round since 2006 or before Day 3 since 2019 — the potential to get a steal here. McCoy is an easy mover who has squeaky-clean technique.”
— Jordan Reid, ESPN Analyst (ESPN)
“The reigning champions have a clear need at corner, as Josh Jobe and Riq Woolen are both scheduled to be free agents. Hood is a scheme-versatile player who can thrive in press man while also having the fluidity to excel in zone. A former all-state center fielder in high school, Hood’s ball skills frequently show up on tape (10 pass breakups and an interception last season). With his poised technique and wrap-up-and-finish tackling, he would fit well on the outside of Mike Macdonald’s secondary.”
— Jordan Reid, ESPN Analyst (ESPN)
“The Bills need someone who can separate on the outside, and Brazzell is an ‘X’ receiver who can be a deep vertical threat. He can also sink his weight and run a true route tree, making him a good fit with quarterback Josh Allen.”
— Jordan Reid, ESPN Analyst (ESPN)
What’s next
Tennessee’s Pro Day workouts are scheduled for the end of March 2026, where McCoy plans to participate in on-field drills to further showcase his recovery from the ACL injury. Strong performances at the Pro Day could potentially push McCoy back up draft boards into the top half of the first round.
The takeaway
The strong NFL Draft projections for Tennessee players demonstrate the continued talent development and success of the Volunteers football program under head coach Josh Heupel. If these projections hold true, it would mark a significant milestone for the program, with Tennessee potentially having two first-round picks and three players selected in the top 60 overall for the first time during Heupel’s tenure.
KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (WCYB) — Tennessee Athletics’ “Big Orange Caravan” presented by Pilot will roll into the Tri-Cities on April 30, bringing some of the university’s most recognizable faces to Kingsport.
The statewide tour, a collaboration between Tennessee Athletics and the UT Knoxville Office of Alumni Affairs, features Vice Chancellor/Director of Athletics Danny White, men’s basketball coach Rick Barnes, women’s basketball coach Kim Caldwell, head football coach Josh Heupel and “Voice of the Vols” Mike Keith.
The Tri-Cities stop is scheduled for Thursday, April 30, at Meadowview Convention Center, 1901 Meadowview Parkway, Kingsport, Tennessee. Doors open at 5 p.m., followed by a meet-and-greet session with the headliners from 5:30-6:15 p.m. The program begins at 6:15 p.m.
Hosted by Keith, the evening will include stories, program insight and a question-and-answer session with Tennessee’s athletics leaders and coaches. The UT Spirit Squads also will be in attendance.
Tickets are $30, plus taxes and fees, and include light food options. A cash bar, along with additional light food and appetizers, will be available.
Of each ticket sold, $5 will benefit the local UT Alumni chapter’s scholarship endowment and $10 will go toward the My All Campaign.
The Tri-Cities event is the final stop of the three-city spring tour. The caravan opens in Chattanooga on April 28 before heading to Nashville on April 29. As announced last spring, Chattanooga and Memphis will alternate as tour stops each year.
The Big Orange Caravan is designed to connect Tennessee coaches and administrators with fans across the state, offering behind-the-scenes insight and celebrating the support of the Volunteer community.
Tickets for the Tri-Cities stop can be purchased at https://www.gofevo.com/event/BOCTriCities26
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Tennessee star Nate Ament will miss a game against South Carolina on Tuesday, the program announced on Monday night. Ament was injured during a weekend contest against Alabama.
Ament was injured when he was rolled up on while going for a loose ball. His leg twisted awkwardly underneath him, and Ament immediately went to the locker room.
He would return briefly in the second half. Nate Ament even made a basket, but then he appeared to tweak his injury shortly after and returned to the bench. He did not re-enter the contest.
Tennessee issued a short statement on his availability against South Carolina. The program released the statement on Twitter.
“Nate Ament will not play tomorrow night at South Carolina,” Tennessee wrote. “Ament is out due to a right leg injury sustained Saturday against Alabama. The timetable for his return is to be determined and he will continue to be evaluated.”
A 6-foot-10, 207-pound freshman, Ament has been one of Tennessee’s best players all season. He is the team’s second-leading scorer, averaging 17.4 points per game. He’s also the team’s leading rebounder, securing 6.4 rebounds per game.
Nate Ament signs NIL deal with Reebok
On3’s Nick Schultz recently published a list of some of the top brands to sign college basketball freshmen to NIL deals. Ament was one of the top signees.
In addition to Arkansas star Darius Acuff, Ament signed with Reebok this year. Ament was the crown jewel of Tennessee’s recruiting class. He signed with the brand in October 2024 while he was the No. 4 overall player from the 2025 cycle, according to the Rivals Industry Ranking.
Nate Ament sits second on the Tennessee roster with 17.4 points per game, and his 6.4 rebounds on average leads the Vols. Additionally, his $1.3 million On3 NIL Valuation ranks No. 14 in college basketball and No. 56 in the On3 NIL 100.
On3’s Nick Schultz also contributed to this report.
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