Tennessee
Tennessee population could hit 8 million in two decades. What it could mean for the state’s biggest cities
US centenarian population to surge by 2054, census shows
Projections from the US Census Bureau indicate the centenarian population will quadruple from 101,000 in 2024 to around 422,000 in 2054.
unbranded – Lifestyle
Tennessee’s population is expected to reach nearly 8 million in less than two decades. According to the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee is expected to be home to 7.94 million residents by 2040 — that’s a 13% increase from the 2022 population of 7.05 million, for which data is most recently available.
Between 2020 and 2030, Tennessee is projected to experience an annual population growth rate of 0.82%, an increase of approximately 600,000 people. According to the data, that’s 35,000 more people than were added between 2010 and 2020. A period of steady but smaller population gains will follow and is expected to continue through 2070, when the population is expected to reach 9,250,000.
“At the state level, the amount of population growth during the 2020s will feel similar to the gains we saw last decade,” said Matt Harris, Boyd Distinguished Professor of Health Economics and co-author of the findings. “But as the baby boom generation reaches the later stages of life, a rising number of deaths will begin to slow Tennessee’s population increases.”
Per university research, older adults are expected to experience the highest population increase of all the age groups. The Volunteer State is also expected to grow more racially and ethnically diverse.
Here’s how else Tennessee is expected to grow at both the local and state level.
Which Tennessee cities grew the most? See how population shifted according to the U.S. Census
A growing population of older adults
By 2040, almost 20% of the state’s population is expected to be aged 65 and older. According to research, that’s a 17% increase and a growth of 306,000 people from 2022. By 2040, people between 65-74 (815,120) will be the dominant age group among older adults, following behind will be people between 75-84 (506,795) and finally people 85 and over (204,895).
According to Harris, a growing population of older adults will not only affect the health care system, but will also increase the need for more housing, transportation and other types of personal care throughout the decades.
Age groups younger than 65 are also expected to grow, however, those populations will grow at a much smaller rate. For example, populations between 25-52 are expected to grow by 11%, while populations under 20 are expected to grow just by 2%.
A more racially and ethnically diverse Tennessee
More than half of the state’s projected population growth can be attributed to Hispanics, Black or African Americans or people who are of other races or more than one race.
The largest increase will be among Hispanics, who will see an increase from approximately 450,000 in 2022to 754,000 over the next 20 years — a 6.4% increase. By 2040, the Hispanic population is expected to make up 10% of Tennessee residents. Asian American, Pacific Islander, and Native American populations will see a similar increase, growing from 307,00 to 470,000 by 2040.
While populations of Black and white Tennesseans are expected to grow as well, the share of the state’s population that is white or Black will decrease. The Black population will decrease from 16.4% to 15.4% and the white population will decrease from 73% to 69% by 2040.
How will the Nashville area population change compared to other Tennessee cities?
The Nashville Metro Statistical Area, which includes Davidson, Murfreesboro and Franklin, is projected to see a 28% growth rate in 2040, bringing the total population to 2,642,779.
The Knoxville area will experience an 11% increase in 2040 bringing its total population to 1,038,122. The Chattanooga area is projected to experience a 13% increase in 2040, bringing the total population 474,768. On the other hand, the Memphis area is projected to experience a 3.4% decrease in population, lowering its 2040 population to 986, 741.
Methodology
The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research developed its population estimates using a cohort component model. Projections were conducted at the county level for each combination of race, sex and age, using internal data well as from the United States Census Bureau and the Tennessee Department of Health.
In order to determine individual areas’ population by race, sex and age for each year, information about birth rates, deathr rates and net migration was factored.
To learn more about the methodology, visit tnsdc.utk.edu.
Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Contact her at Dleyva@gannett.com or follow her on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @_leyvadiana
Coach Josh Heupel understands why Tennessee football fans will watch the first College Football Playoff rankings show on Tuesday night, but it won’t be must-see TV for him.
“Do you remember what the first rankings were last year? I don’t either,” Heupel said. “So it doesn’t matter. What they remember is where you finish as November wraps up.”
For what it’s worth, Tennessee was No. 17 in the first CFP poll last season. And it never factored into the playoff race.
In 2022, the Vols were ranked No. 1 in the first CFP poll. They dropped out of the four-team bracket after losing to Georgia and never got back in.
So Heupel makes a fair point. A team’s finish matters instead of its start when it comes to the playoff rankings.
But in this new 12-team playoff format, there’s more room to maneuver from week to week and still stay in the mix.
The first College Football Playoff rankings will be released on Tuesday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN). A new top 25 will then be released by the CFP selection committee every Tuesday through Dec. 3.
The 12-team playoff field will be announced on Dec. 8.
Focus on Mississippi State before worrying about Georgia
Tennessee is ranked No. 6 in the US LBM Coaches Poll and No. 7 in the AP Top 25. Where the Vols are placed in the CFP rankings will indicate what the selection committee thinks of their resume thus far.
But Heupel is right that Tennessee (7-1, 4-1 SEC) will make or break its playoff chances by what it does in the next four games, beginning with Saturday’s contest (7 p.m., ESPN) against Mississippi State (2-7, 0-5).
“Playoff rankings at this point don’t matter. You don’t have control over it,” Heupel said. “All you have control over is your preparation and how you play. Ultimately, that determines where you’re at or where you’re not at.
“For this football team, we’ve got to continue to grow and get better and control those things that we’re in control of.”
If Tennessee beats Mississippi State, its trip to Georgia on Nov. 16 (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) would have a massive impact on the SEC and playoff races.
Are Vols talking about College Football Playoff chances?
No. 2 Georgia (7-1, 5-1) plays at No. 12 Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2) on Saturday (3:30 p.m., ABC).
Ole Miss likely would drop out of the playoff race with a loss, and Georgia would be in the driver’s seat for a playoff bid and SEC championship game berth.
A Georgia loss to Ole Miss would put the Bulldogs in a potential playoff elimination game against Tennessee.
Tennessee would be a playoff shoo-in by winning its final four games for an 11-1 record. Losing to Georgia only and finishing 10-2 would set up a toss-up situation for the Vols, who would need help from other playoff contenders.
Alabama (6-2, 3-2) plays at LSU (6-2, 3-1) on Saturday (7:30 p.m., ABC) in a likely playoff elimination game. And there are games in other conferences that will impact next week’s CFP rankings. But none of that matters to the Vols unless they beat Mississippi State to stay in the race.
“It’s just a one-week season at this point. And we’ve talked about us being in control of our destiny,” tight end Holden Staes said. “But in terms of the big picture with the College Football Playoff, we know down the road that will come. But if we just take it one week at a time and do our job each week, then we’ll have the results in terms of that at the end.”
Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.
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It’s no secret that Tennessee landed two recruits on Halloween day. The Vols had a great holiday as they had a day full of treats and no tricks. Tennessee added a commitment in the class of 2026 and a flip from one school to the Vols in the 2025 class to close out the night.
2026 WR Tyreek King committed to the Vols early on Thursday becoming the first wide receiver to commit to the Vols in the 2026 class. King attends Knoxville Catholic which is closer than most schools to Neyland Stadium. Kings high school is only around 15-20 minutes away from Neyland Stadium so one could argue that the Vols always had an advantage for the hometown prospect.
Tennessee would continue the trend of adding other recruiting classes with in-state prospects as Page High School linebacker Brenden Anes would flip his commitment from Wisconsin to the Tennessee Vols. Tennessee has been looking to add another linebacker in the 2025 class as Austin Howard and Brenden Anes have been the frequently mentioned names when talking about the position of need. The Vols finally convinced the Wisconsin linebacker commit to flip to the in-state program with just over a month before early signing day.
You can learn more about this recruiting success below by watching Talkin’ Tennessee with Caleb Sisk. This video not only talks about the two newest commits but also some prospects and targets to keep an eye on moving forward.
Make sure to follow our website Tennessee on SI.
Tennessee
No. 12 Tennessee Basketball vs. Gardner-Webb: How To Watch, Betting Odds, Prediction | Rocky Top Insider
Tennessee basketball opens up its 2024-25 campaign on Monday night as the Vols host Gardner-Webb at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center.
The reigning SEC Champions are breaking in a number of new players on this year’s squad but expectations remain high for a program that’s been as consistent as any in the SEC in recent seasons.
Here’s everything to know about the Vols’ season-opener against Gardner Webb on Monday night.
“They’re gonna play really fast. They’re well coached, extremely well coached. They got a new coach there, but they’re gonna work hard. They’re gonna really try to score quick. I think (they were) one of the top teams in the country last year. They can almost play with a 17-second shot clock. They get down the floor, they’re gonna shoot it quick, they know what they’re doing. They know how they wanna play. They’ll spread you out. Really good cutting team. If you turn your head, you get caught looking, they’re gonna take advantage of it.”
Gardner-Webb:
Points: Jamaine Mann (Georgia State) — 6.1 PPG, 46 FG%, 20 3PT%
Rebounds: Isaiah Richards and Ademide Badmus — 4.5 RPG
Assists: Darryl Simmons II — 0.8 APG, 0.4 TOPG, 10.2 MPG
Prediction
For as much new as Tennessee basketball is breaking in this season, Gardner-Webb is breaking in even more new including a first-year head coach and very few of its top contributors from a season ago.
I have a very hard time seeing Gardner-Webb scoring a lot of points in this game so this feels much more about what Tennessee can do on the offensive end of the court, especially after its poor offensive performance in its exhibition against Indiana.
The Vols will shoot better from the perimeter in this game. They need to be able to establish an inside scoring game too. It would be a bad sign if they can’t.
Tennessee 84, Gardner-Webb 51
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