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Georgia vs. Tennessee score prediction by expert football model

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Georgia vs. Tennessee score prediction by expert football model


A critical SEC rivalry kicks off packed with College Football Playoff implications as two-loss, No. 11 Georgia welcomes No. 6 Tennessee with everything on the line. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Georgia faces a November must-win situation with two losses and coming off an ugly performance at Ole Miss, as the selection committee keeps a close eye on what happens between the hedges after dropping the Bulldogs out of the top dozen in this week’s bracket seeding.

Tennessee has more room to maneuver with one loss sitting atop the SEC standings, but still needs to impress the selectors with a good performance on the road against a ranked rival.

What do the analytical models suggest will happen when the Volunteers visit the Bulldogs in this SEC rivalry clash?

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For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Tennessee compare in this Week 12 college football game.

The models are siding with the Bulldogs over the Vols in this matchup, but in a very close game.

SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Tennessee by a projected score of 27 to 23 and will win the game by an expected margin of 4.4 points to avoid a third loss.

The model gives the Bulldogs a 61 percent chance of outright victory against the Vols.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 292-263-8 against the spread with a 52.6 win percentage after going 30-19-1 (61%) last weekend.

Georgia is a 10.5 point favorite against Tennessee, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel set the total at 47.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Georgia at -385 and for Tennessee at +300 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

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If you do, you’ll be in the majority of bettors who expect the Vols will give the Bulldogs a scare, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Tennessee is getting 66 percent of bets to win outright in the upset or to keep the final margin to 10 or fewer points in a loss.

The other 34 percent of wagers project Georgia will win the game and cover the big spread.

Tennessee ranks No. 10 nationally by averaging out 19.9 points better than its opponents this season when counting all the points in the wins and its one loss.

Georgia has been 8 points better than the competition on average in 2024.

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Those averages have drawn closer over the last three games.

Tennessee has been 12 points better than other teams in that span, while Georgia has played things close, coming out 3.7 points better than the competition over that time.

Things look about even when considering the venue, although the Vols have a slight edge.

Tennessee has averaged 15.3 points better than opponents when playing on the road this season, compared to Georgia coming out 14 points better than the competition when at home.

Most other analytical models also favor the Bulldogs over the Volunteers in this SEC clash.

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That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Georgia has emerged as the favorite at home, coming out ahead in 61.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Tennessee as the presumptive winner in the remaining 38.3 percent of sims.

But those figures represent a mere win-loss calculation. What do they suggest about a possible margin of victory in the game?

Expect a very close one.

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Georgia is projected to be 4.3 points better than Tennessee on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More … Georgia vs. Tennessee prediction: What the analytics say

Georgia is second among SEC teams with a 75.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects Georgia will win 9.6 games this season.

Tennessee has a 74.3 percent chance to make the playoff, sitting third in the conference, and will win 10.3 games in ‘24, according to the index.

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When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Former Titans Coach Named Top Candidate for Jets

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Former Titans Coach Named Top Candidate for Jets


Former Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel remains a hot name, and he may have another head-coaching job as soon as next season.

Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated recently named a bunch of potential candidates for the New York Jets job in 2025, and Vrabel was at the top of his list.

“Mike Vrabel makes the most sense to me, mostly because he won’t stand down to an owner, and that’s exactly what the New York Jets need,” Breer wrote.

The problem with that is Jets owner Woody Johnson is known to be a meddler, so he a Vrabel-Johnson partnership may never actually come to fruition.

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Still, Vrabel could end up being a perfect fit for the Jets from a stylistic perspective given that New York is built upon a strong defense.

It’s not the first time that Vrabel has been linked to Gang Green, either.

Vrabel actually did a very solid job during his time with the Titans, going 54-45 while making three playoff appearances—including a pair of AFC South titles—across five seasons.

Things went south over Vrabel’s final two years in Tennessee, with the Titans going just 13-21 during that span. However, it is becoming increasingly obvious that the problem was not with Vrabel.

Vrabel is currently serving as an assistant for the Cleveland Browns, but it seems like only a matter of time before he lands a better job elsewhere.

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The 49-year-old also had a 14-year NFL playing career from 1997 through 2010, spending time with the Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs. He won three Super Bowls with the Patriots and also made a Pro Bowl with the squad in 2007.

The Jets have been one of the league’s most disappointing teams this season, as they are just 3-8 in spite of having one of the most star-studded rosters in the sport.

Make sure you bookmark Tennessee Titans on SI for the latest news, exclusive interviews, film breakdowns and so much more!



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Tennessee man convicted for Jan. 6 riot found guilty of plotting to kill FBI agents who investigated him

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Tennessee man convicted for Jan. 6 riot found guilty of plotting to kill FBI agents who investigated him


A Jan. 6 rioter who breached the U.S. Capitol was convicted of trying to have law enforcement personnel, including the FBI agents and employees who were investigating him, murdered, the Justice Department said Wednesday. 

Edward Kelley, 35, of Maryville, Tennessee, who was convicted of assaulting law enforcement officers and other crimes during the Capitol attack on Jan. 6, 2021, was found guilty on Wednesday of conspiracy to murder employees of the United States, solicitation to commit a crime of violence, and influencing or retaliating against federal officials by threat.

The jury agreed on a verdict after an hour of deliberation following the three-day trial, WBIR-TV reported.

NIKKI HALEY PENS SUPPORTIVE OP-ED IN FAVOR OF TRUMP AHEAD OF ELECTION DAY: ‘EASY CALL’ 

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Jan. 6 rioter Edward Kelley seen at the U.S. Capitol. Kelley was convicted this week of plotting to kill the FBI agents who investigated him.  (Justice Department)

Federal prosecutors at his trial in Knoxville, Tennessee, said Kelly developed a “kill list” of FBI agents and others who participated in the investigation into his conduct on Jan. 6 while awaiting trial for his involvement in the Capitol riot. 

He distributed the list, as well as videos containing images of FBI employees identified on the list, to a co-conspirator as part of his “mission,” authorities said.

SUPREME COURT RULES IN FAVOR OF JAN. 6 CAPITOL RIOT PARTICIPANT WHO CHALLENGED OBSTRUCTION CONVICTION

Capitol riot

A scene from the January 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol in 2021. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File)

Kelley’s co-defendant Austin Carter, who pleaded guilty in November 2023 to conspiracy to kill FBI agents and is awaiting sentencing, testified that Kelly said he needed to “take out” the FBI. He said that he and Kelley planned attacks on the Knoxville FBI Field Office using car bombs and incendiary devices appended to drones. 

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He also testified that the conspirators strategized about assassinating FBI employees in their homes and in public places such as movie theaters.

Edward Kelley inside the Capitol

Edward Kelley inside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.  (Justice Department)

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Recording introduced by prosecutors showed Kelley directing the plan, and giving instructions to “start it,” “attack,” and “take out their office” in the event of his arrest. He was also recorded stating: “Every hit has to hurt. Every hit has to hurt,” authorities said. 

Kelley is scheduled to be sentenced on May 7, 2025. He faces up to life in prison. 



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How Tennessee Makes The College Football Playoff

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How Tennessee Makes The College Football Playoff


The Tennessee Volunteers are currently ranked 11th on the latest College Football Playoff rankings. However, because of automatic bids, if the College Football Playoff rankings were finalized today, Tennessee is the first team out, overlooked by the Big 12 champ and Boise State. Now, good news for the (10-2) Tennessee Volunteers, there’s still a way for them to make the CFP. Though, there are going to need some help.

Note: ESPN’s CFP Prediction Machine gives Tennessee an 88% chance to make the CFP if they simply win out.

Any regular season loss by a (2) loss SEC Team
Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia all share a two-loss record at this point in the season, and though Tennessee has a head-to-head win over Alabama, their pair of losses (Arkansas and Georgia) is deemed worse by the committee at this point in the rankings. Any loss by any of those three team would likely free Tennessee up for a entrance to the playoff.

Indiana Is Destroyed by Ohio State
Indiana is a threat to Tennessee at this point, and would be even at an (11-1) record with a presumed loss this weekend to Ohio State. However, if Indiana is blown out in the contest, they will more than likely drop behind Tennessee who has just UTEP and Vanderbilt left on the schedule. Indiana has one top-25 opponent all season, this weekend at Ohio State, if they are walked off the field, it will open Tennessee’s door.

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Notre Dame Loses to Army or USC
It’s a long shot, Notre Dame is a heavy favorite in both football games… as they were against Northern Illinois — the 8th ranked team in the MAC. If Notre Dame were to drop another football game over the next two weeks, there’s a likelihood that Tennessee gets in the playoff.

Texas A&M Loses to Texas
If Texas A&M wins out, and has a top-3 win over the Texas Longhorns to end the regular season and goes onto the SEC Championship game, the committee has shown they have tremendous amounts of recency bias. A win-out situation for Texas A&M is something that the Vols should hope to avoid.

Make sure to follow our website Tennessee on SI.



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