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Texas vs. Oklahoma football prediction: What the analytics say

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Texas vs. Oklahoma football prediction: What the analytics say


For the first time, the Red River Shootout is an SEC conference matchup, as No. 1 Texas and No. 18 Oklahoma renew one of college football’s most intense rivalries. Let’s check in with the updated prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.

Texas is one of 12 undefeated teams and sits at 1-0 in SEC play with Arch Manning starting the last two games, but Quinn Ewers should return to action this week after dealing with an abdominal injury.

Oklahoma is 1-1 in SEC games, taking a 10-point loss at home to Tennessee that resulted in a quarterback change, and it relied on some timely defense to get past Auburn two weeks ago.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

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The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

So far, the models are siding pretty strongly with the Longhorns over the Sooners.

Texas is projected to win the game in an overwhelming 85.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations, or in 17,040 of its latest 20,000 predictions.

That leaves Oklahoma as the expected winner in 14.8 percent of sims, or 2,960 projections.

Texas is projected to be 15.8 points better than Oklahoma on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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If so, that would be enough for the Longhorns to cover the spread.

That’s because Texas is a 14.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -700 and for Oklahoma at +500 to win outright.

Most bettors predict the Sooners will make this a game against the Longhorns, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

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A majority of bets — 58 percent — project that Oklahoma will either beat Texas in an upset, or keep the game within the point spread.

The other 42 percent of wagers expect Texas will win the game and cover the spread.

The game’s implied score suggests a win for the Longhorns.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Texas will defeat Oklahoma by a projected score of 32 to 18 in the game.

Texas is first among SEC teams with a 91.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.4 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

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That model gives Oklahoma a win total projection of 7.2 games and a 13.9 percent shot at the playoff.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses

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1. Texas (52)
2. Ohio State (9)
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Clemson
T-11. Iowa State/Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Utah
17. Boise State
T-18. Kansas State/Indiana/Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Pittsburgh
23. Illinois
24. Michigan
25. SMU

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Oklahoma

Supreme Court takes up death row case with a rare alliance. Oklahoma inmate has state’s support. – The Boston Globe

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Supreme Court takes up death row case with a rare alliance. Oklahoma inmate has state’s support. – The Boston Globe


Glossip has always maintained his innocence in the 1997 killing in Oklahoma City of his former boss, motel owner Barry Van Treese, in what prosecutors have alleged was a murder-for-hire scheme.

Another man, Justin Sneed, admitted robbing Van Treese and beating him to death with a baseball bat but testified he only did so after Glossip promised to pay him $10,000. Sneed received a life sentence in exchange for his testimony and was the key witness against Glossip.

But evidence that emerged only last year persuaded Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond, a Republican, that Glossip did not get a fair trial.

Among Drummond’s concerns are that prosecutors suppressed evidence about Sneed’s psychiatric condition that might have undermined his testimony. Drummond also has cited a box of evidence in the case that was destroyed that might have helped Glossip’s defense.

The court will be wrestling with two legal issues. The justices will consider whether Glossip’s rights were violated because the evidence wasn’t turned over. They also will weigh whether the Oklahoma court decision upholding the conviction and sentence, reached after the state’s position changed, should be allowed to stand.

Prosecutors in at least three other death penalty cases in Alabama and Texas have pushed for death row inmates to be given new trials or at least spared the prospect of being executed. The inmates are: Toforest Johnson in Alabama, and Melissa Lucio and Areli Escobar in Texas. In another similar case, the justices refused a last-minute reprieve for Marcellus Williams, whom Missouri executed last month.

The justices issued their most recent order blocking Glossip’s execution last year. They previously stopped his execution in 2015, then ruled against him by a 5-4 vote in upholding Oklahoma’s lethal injection process. He avoided execution then only because of a mix-up in the drugs that were to be used.

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Glossip was initially convicted in 1998, but won a new trial ordered by a state appeals court. He was convicted again in 2004.

Two former solicitors general, Seth Waxman and Paul Clement, represent Glossip and Oklahoma, respectively, at the Supreme Court. Christopher Michel, an attorney appointed by the court, is defending the Oklahoma court ruling that Glossip should be put to death.

More than a half-dozen states also have weighed in on the case, asking the Supreme Court to uphold Glossip’s conviction, arguing that they have a “substantial interest” in federal-court respect for state-court decisions.

Justice Neil Gorsuch is sitting out the case, presumably because he took part in it at an earlier stage when he was an appeals court judge.

A decision is expected by early summer.

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Oklahoma’s Bible bidding requirements change after reports detail strict original qualifications

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Oklahoma’s Bible bidding requirements change after reports detail strict original qualifications


OKLAHOMA CITY (KSWO) – The bidding requirements to supply 55,000 Bibles to Oklahoma public schools has been amended following reports of the original requirements severely limiting Bibles that would qualify.

The original requirements stated the Bibles chosen would have to include American founding documents such as the U.S. Constitution, Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Bill of Rights. The Bibles would have had to also contain the Pledge of Allegiance.

However, now those qualifications have been amended to state those additional documents can now be provided separately from the Bible.

In addition, cost will now be a factor in awarding the bid, according to the new RFP.

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The two Bibles many pointed to which met the original strict requirements were either endorsed or promoted by former-President Donald Trump.

The first was Lee Greenwood’s Bible titled, “God Bless the USA Bible” and it sells for $60 online. The second bible was the “We The People Bible” and it sells for almost $90 online.

Associated Press reported the changes were made to save taxpayer money.

Read our extensive coverage of Ryan Walters’ drive to bring Bibles to Oklahoma public schools below:

| READ: Bidding now open to supply Bibles to Oklahoma schools, Trump-endorsed Bible meets strict requirements |

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| READ: Newly formed Oklahoma Freedom Caucus supports initiative placing bibles in classrooms |

| READ: Lawton House Representative weighs in on OSDE $3 million request for bibles |

| READ: Ryan Walters requests additional $3 million to supply bibles in Oklahoma classrooms |

| READ: Local legislators react to ‘Bibles in every classroom’ memo from state superintendent |

| READ: ‘Theocratic Leader’: State Superintendent says Bible will be in every Oklahoma classroom |

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You can view the new RFP with the amendments below:



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Oklahoma accepting tribal youth program grant applications

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Oklahoma accepting tribal youth program grant applications


OKLAHOMA (KXII) – Tribal youth programs can now apply for grant money from the Oklahoma Office of Juvenile Affairs.

More than $500,000 in grant money is available, in hopes of preventing delinquency among tribal youth.

The grants are intended for programs that honor indigenous traditions and work to help children in need.

A press release from the Oklahoma Office of Juvenile Affairs stated that the money is made possible through the federal Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, and the money will go to agencies that work to strengthen youth development and combat truancy, substance use and other delinquent behaviors.

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Organizations can apply here.

November 8 is the final day for programs to apply for grant money.



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