Oklahoma
Texas vs. Oklahoma football prediction: What the analytics say
For the first time, the Red River Shootout is an SEC conference matchup, as No. 1 Texas and No. 18 Oklahoma renew one of college football’s most intense rivalries. Let’s check in with the updated prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.
Texas is one of 12 undefeated teams and sits at 1-0 in SEC play with Arch Manning starting the last two games, but Quinn Ewers should return to action this week after dealing with an abdominal injury.
Oklahoma is 1-1 in SEC games, taking a 10-point loss at home to Tennessee that resulted in a quarterback change, and it relied on some timely defense to get past Auburn two weeks ago.
Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.
So far, the models are siding pretty strongly with the Longhorns over the Sooners.
Texas is projected to win the game in an overwhelming 85.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations, or in 17,040 of its latest 20,000 predictions.
That leaves Oklahoma as the expected winner in 14.8 percent of sims, or 2,960 projections.
Texas is projected to be 15.8 points better than Oklahoma on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
If so, that would be enough for the Longhorns to cover the spread.
That’s because Texas is a 14.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the game.
And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -700 and for Oklahoma at +500 to win outright.
Most bettors predict the Sooners will make this a game against the Longhorns, according to the latest spread consensus picks.
A majority of bets — 58 percent — project that Oklahoma will either beat Texas in an upset, or keep the game within the point spread.
The other 42 percent of wagers expect Texas will win the game and cover the spread.
The game’s implied score suggests a win for the Longhorns.
When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Texas will defeat Oklahoma by a projected score of 32 to 18 in the game.
Texas is first among SEC teams with a 91.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.4 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model gives Oklahoma a win total projection of 7.2 games and a 13.9 percent shot at the playoff.
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
First-place votes in parentheses
1. Texas (52)
2. Ohio State (9)
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Clemson
T-11. Iowa State/Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Utah
17. Boise State
T-18. Kansas State/Indiana/Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Pittsburgh
23. Illinois
24. Michigan
25. SMU
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Oklahoma
Live Updates: No. 7 Alabama Football at Oklahoma
NORMAN, Okla.–– Alabama has one final road test to pass in the regular season if it wants to compete for an SEC title and make it back to the College Football Playoff.
The No. 7 Crimson Tide plays at Oklahoma on Saturday night in the first matchup as conference foes in the SEC. BamaCentral will have coverage all night from Norman. Follow along for updates.
BE SURE TO REFRESH YOUR BROWSER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
(latest updates at the top)
Who: Alabama (8-2, 4-2 SEC) vs. Oklahoma (5-5, 1-4)
When: Saturday, Nov. 23, 6:30 p.m.
Where: Gaylord Family Memorial Stadium
TV: ABC/ESPN+
Radio: Crimson Tide Sports Network (Play-By-Play: Chris Stewart, Color: Tyler Watts).
Series: Oklahoma leads 3-2-1
Last meeting: Alabama defeated the Sooners in the Capital One Orange Bowl as part of the College Football Playoff 45-34. Tua Tagovailoa passed for 318 yards and four touchdowns while the Crimson Tide rushed for 200 yards across 42 carries between Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris and Najee Harris.
Last time out, Alabama: The Crimson Tide dominated Mercer 52-7 at home behind three touchdowns from Jalen Milroe and two touchdowns from Ryan Williams. The Alabama defense forced three more turnovers as they’ve now forced 16 in the last five games, making life challenging on opposing offenses.
Last time out, Oklahoma: The Sooners were off this past week, but went to Missouri two weeks ago and lost 30-23 after losing a fumble for a touchdown in the game’s final minutes. Oklahoma’s played five conference games and only won at Auburn this season.
Oklahoma
Staff predictions: Our picks for No. 7 Alabama at Oklahoma
After falling twice away from home already this season, No. 7 Alabama will look to avoid a potential trap game in its final road trip of the regular season. The Crimson Tide (8-2, 5-2 in the SEC) will visit Oklahoma (5-5, 1-5) for a 6:30 p.m. CT kickoff Saturday inside Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.
This will be the seventh matchup between Alabama and Oklahoma. The Sooners hold a 3-2-1 advantage in the series, but the Tide won the most recent meeting, recording a 45-34 victory in the 2018 Orange Bowl. Alabama is currently a 14-point favorite for Saturday’s game, according to the Caesars Sportsbook.
Here’s how Tide Illustrated’s staff thinks the game will play out.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State Offers 2026 Bixby DB Braeden Presley
The stark reality of the Cowboys future on the gridiron is up in the air. Can Oklahoma State bounce back in 2025 following one of the worst football seasons in years? Will the Pokes return next season and play with a chip on their shoulder? Only time will tell and the best way to improve the football team is for the coaching staff to hit the recruiting trail hard.
Oklahoma State will say goodbye to one of the greatest statistical wide receivers to ever wear the Cowboy orange. Senior Brennan Presley has been the cornerstone of the receiving core for the past four seasons. He is the all-time receptions leader in Oklahoma State history and has caught more than two passes in nearly every game since his sophomore season.
The offense won’t be the same in 2025 with Presley snagging catches across the middle, but the fans of Cowboy football won’t have to wait long as a familiar name will be entering the mix straight out of the class of 2026.
On Thursday, Oklahoma State looked to make it the Presley trifecta when they offered the youngest of the bunch, 2026 Bixby star Braeden Presley. Older brothers Brennan and Braylin both committed to Oklahoma State out of high school. Brennan hung around to become the all-time receptions leader in school history while Braylin transferred to Tulsa.
Braeden is the biggest brother of the bunch and measures in at 6-foot-2 and 180 pounds, according to 247Sports. He is unranked at the moment but still has a full season of football yet to play. The interest continues to grow for Braeden who has drawn offers from Tulsa, Boston College and Kansas.
Oklahoma State joined the mix on Thursday and is hoping to use its family ties to lock up their third straight Presley. Little is known about Presley on the field, and he has proven this season that he is a jack of all trades. He has logged a rushing touchdown, receiving touchdown and passing touchdown this season for the Spartans of Bixby.
A majority of his highlights have come on the defensive side of the football. He has 27 tackles, three interceptions and a forced fumble in 2024 for a Bixby team who is searching for yet another Class 5A State Championship.
The fans of Oklahoma State football may not have to wait very long to have a Presley once again under the lights of Boone Pickens Stadium.
Want to join the discussion? Like Oklahoma State Cowboys on SI on Facebook and follow us on Twitter to stay up to date on all the latest Cowboys news. You can also meet the team behind the coverage.
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