Two teams preparing to move conferences square off as SMU and Oklahoma face. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with an SMU-Oklahoma prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
SMU has won both on and off the field as of late. They are heading to the ACC next year, a huge boost for a program once nearly dead from an NCAA Death Penalty. They also beat Louisiana Tech last week. SMU started strong. In the first quarter, Preston Stone through a 67-yard touchdown pass to Jordan Hudson to give them the lead. On the next drive, Kore Roberson took an interception back to the house to go up two scores. Meanwhile, Stone would add two more touchdowns in the second quarter to lead 31-0 at the half. Hank Bachmeier would finally get the Bulldogs on the board with a 53-yard touchdown pass in the third, but it was too little too late. SMU would win 38-14.
Oklahoma comes in after a demolition of Arkansas State. The Sooners scored four first-quarter touchdowns, with two from Dillion Gabriel, a run from MArcu Majors, and a punt return to give them the early lead. Gabriel would add another touchdown in the second, and Oklahoma led 45-0 at the half. In the third, Jackson Arnold took over and led the Sooners on four touchdown drives on the road to a 73-0 win.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: SMU-Oklahoma Odds
SMU: +16.5 (-115)
Oklahoma: -16.5 (-105)
Over: 68.5 (-110)
Under: 68.5 (-110)
How to Watch SMU vs. Oklahoma
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 6:00 PM ET/ 3:00 PM PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why SMU Will Cover The Spread
Preston Stone will need to have another great game is SMU is going to cover. Last time out he went 23-38 on the day for 249 yards and three scored. He drove the ball downfield well, with an average depth of target sitting at 12.00 yards, but still, with incompletions and that number being weighted by some long bombs, he averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt. He was protected fairly well though. Stone was pressured just ten times in the game on 41 dropbacks. He got the ball off seven times and scrambled for yards three times, coming away with no sacks in the game.
The running game was solid as well. LJ Johnson had a good game, going for 127 yards on just 14 carries. He caused six missed tackles and had 101 yards after first contact in the game, with two carries over 15 yards. Jayalan Knighton was also good. He went for 62 yards on 17 carries, but he averaged just 1.29 yards after first contact. The run blocking was not great for him overall. He was hit in the backfield often and hard to try to make it back to the line of scrimmage on more than one occasion.
SMU did have a solid day on defense though, led by Elijah Roberts and Kore Robertson. Robertson played just 16 snaps on the day but made the most of them. He had four total quarterback pressures, a sack, and a batted ball. He also had one stop for an offensive failure and an interception in the game. Roberts played almost every snap and was an issue for the quarterback. He came away with five quarterback pressures and two sacks. He also had four stops for offensive failures in the game. Overall, SMU has 38 quarterback pressures in the game, while coming away with nine sacks. They were constantly in the opponent’s backfield, and if they can do that again, they will be able to keep it close.
Why Oklahoma Will Cover The Spread
Dillion Gabriel has a solid start to his season. In the game with Arkansas Strate, he went 19-22 for 308 yards while throwing two touchdowns. He was impressive with his accuracy, completing 86.4 percent of his passes, with one pass being dropped and not having any turnover-worthy passes. Gabriel was also not pressured much. He faced pressure just three times in the game and was able to scramble away twice while getting the ball off once. Gabriel also got some help from his wide receivers. He had an average depth of target of just nine yards down the field but had an average of 14 yards per pass attempt.
Jaquaize Pettaway was solid in the game. He caught nine of the ten targets thrown his way for 56 yards. He was in the slot and mostly ran short routes or screens, so his average depth of target was the line of scrimmage and he had 56 yards after the catch. Meanwhile, Jayden Gibson was solid as well. He brought in both of his targets for 54 yards and a touchdown.
Oklahoma also had a great day on the ground. Dillion Gabriel scored a touchdown on a scramble, while Tawaee walked and scored twice. He ran just eight times in the game, but it was for 44 yards and two scores. Meanwhile, backup quarterback Jackson Arnold had five designed runs and scored once with 39 yards. Overall, Oklahoma had six runs longer than ten yards and scored six times on the ground.
One defense, there were some good things and some areas needing improvement. They struggled some against the rush and were getting pushed back on multiple plays at the line. They also struggled to get to the quarterback. While the Sooners did have 16 quarterback pressures, they had just one sack in the game. Still, they forced two turnovers and shut out their opponent.
Final SMU-Oklahoma Prediction & Pick
SMU and Oklahoma just put on great offensive showings, but it was not against great defensive teams. What was impressive was the depth of Oklahoma. They continued to dismantle Arkansas State with second and third-string players in the game. Still, they showed they have room for improvement. SMU put a ton of pressure on the quarterback last game. They will face a much better offensive line, but even if they get half the pressures they had in the first game, it will slow down Oklahoma enough. SMU is not going to win this game, but they will cover.
Final SMU-Oklahoma Prediction & Pick: SMU +16.5 (-115)
