About 20 years ago, in the early 2000s, Paul Shumaker’s party began experiencing a troubling trend.

Shumaker, a Republican operative with a classic Carolinian drawl, laid it out for Al Jazeera in stark terms: Republican registration started declining, while the number of “unaffiliated” voters gradually rose.

“Now there are no liberal Republicans left, and there are fewer moderate Republicans, too,” Shumaker said.

He shared data showing how both major parties, Republicans and Democrats, have, in total, invested more than $147m in the state over the last 10 years — but even that couldn’t stop an “explosion” of unaffiliated voters, who are now the clear majority.

Of the 8.5 million voters in North Carolina this year, approximately 38 percent are registered as “unaffiliated”. That dwarfs the 32 percent who identify as Democrat and the 30 percent who say they’re Republican.

This explosion of “unaffiliated” voters dovetails with larger demographic trends showing Americans bucking traditional party labels, adding to the unpredictability of elections.

However, that doesn’t mean “unaffiliated” voters will opt for a third-party candidate. Surveys have shown that the majority of independent voters do, in fact, “lean” consistently towards either the Republican side or the Democrats.

Which is to say, they’re very much up for grabs — and in demand — by the two major parties.

“Neither party can win without building a coalition for unaffiliated voters,” Shumaker said.

Republicans, he explained, need to appeal to unaffiliated voters in the suburbs and cities — two areas Democrats are expected to win.

Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping to use “unaffiliated” voters to compensate for losses in their base. More than 2.4 million people in North Carolina registered as Democrat as of October 26 — down from more than 2.6 million at around the same point in the 2020 election cycle.

Party strategists like Jackson hope to make up the loss by appealing to voters in left-wing strongholds — typically urban centres — while holding ground in rural areas.

After all, North Carolina has the largest rural population in the US after Texas.

“People often say you have to lose by less in the rural areas, but that’s not true: You just have to stop the bleeding,” Jackson said. “If Kamala Harris holds [outgoing President] Joe Biden’s margins, she could have a shot.”

Mac McCorkle, a Democratic political consultant with a cheery, amiable aura, refers to unaffiliated voters as “precious” to his party. He believes only a small number of voters will decide whether North Carolina backs Harris or Trump.

“It’s not like 20 percent of the electorate can go either way,” he said. “We’re talking about a race that’ll be decided by one, two, three percent.”

If you’re one of the millions of North Carolinians who’ve yet to vote in this year’s election, there’s still ample time as early voting runs through this Saturday. Even if you still need to register, you can do so and vote
at the same time at any early voting site in your home county.

Those who wait till Election Day, must vote at their local precinct and already be registered.

Whenever you go, remember to bring a photo ID. The state Board of Elections website has information on how to get one for free if you don’t have one.

And here’s another thing to remember: the ballot this year is long. My Wake County ballot had 28 contests at the federal, state, and local levels.

And while you don’t have to vote in every race, you’re doing yourself and our community a disservice if you don’t. There’s a fine nonpartisan guide at ncvoterguide.org that can get you up to speed.

The bottom line: Voting is a civic duty for all good citizens. Take a few minutes ncvoterguide.org to prepare and to do your part.

For NC Newsline, I’m Rob Schofield.

Powerful winds from Helene knocked down large swaths of trees in western North Carolina, creating an environment susceptible to wildfires.

Helene wreaked havoc on the Tar Heel State in late September, producing historic floods and winds exceeding 100 mph.

Tens of thousands of trees fell and set the stage for a potentially dangerous situation for residents still dealing with destruction caused last month.

North Carolina State University Professor of Forest Ecology Robert Scheller said this tree mortality resulted in tree debris, such as leaves and branches, that can dry up and become fuel for a wildfire.

“Any fire is limited by the amount of fuels to feed it,” Scheller said to FOX Weather. “Specifically, a wildfire needs that small material to really spread.”

NORTH CAROLINA CHRISTMAS TREE INDUSTRY RECOVERS FROM HELENE AS HOPE FOR HOLIDAY SUPPLY REMAINS STRONG

He noted that different types of trees have variable flammability. Pine trees are perhaps the most flammable type of tree, as pine needles have high levels of flammable resins.

Oak trees, he said, are likely the second-most flammable, adding that oak trees are the trees that dominate western North Carolina.

Downed trees after Helene in Old Fort, North Carolina.

(Allison Joyce / AFP / Getty Images)

With so much fuel for kindling from the downed trees, western North Carolina is poised to have an increased wildfire risk.

To mitigate this risk, officials may attempt to put in fuel breaks, or areas that serve as barriers in the landscape to prevent a fire from easily spreading.

However, taking that approach in western North Carolina would be challenging, given the rugged terrain of the area and the devastated infrastructure.

One alternative solution involves implementing burn bans, according to Scheller.

An aerial view of a car and trees destroyed by flooding wrought by Hurricane Helene on October 3, 2024 in Black Mountain, North Carolina. 

(Mario Tama / Getty Images)

“We have to be careful,” he said. “Things are really dry right now, only getting drier. Where we need to be really careful is, on windy days, is to have a complete burn ban throughout that area.”

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

Scheller noted that the next few months may help lessen the risk of wildfires, as fuel from blown-down trees becomes wet with snow and then begins to decay.

However, taking action sooner rather than later, especially during these dry conditions, is critical.