The state’s flounder fishery has been struggling for decades, with data showing stocks severely depleted. But rebuilding the fishery could require more tough and unpopular decisions

What if the most popular fish was taken off the menu? Would a restaurant be expected to take a hit?

That’s what some North Carolina coastal communities could be dealing with in the near future after state regulators decided to cancel the 2024 recreational flounder fishing season due to concerns over the status of the stressed fishery.

The move has ignited a firestorm of criticism along the coast and rekindled the ever-present dispute between recreational and commercial fishermen over who is to blame for the overfishing that biologists say plagues many of North Carolina’s most popular fisheries − including flounder, arguably the most popular and traditional coastal Tar Heel State fish.

But the impact of last month’s decision by the Marine Fisheries Commission could extend beyond the frustration of local anglers.

In 2022, the last year for which figures are available, North Carolina sold more than 485,000 fishing licenses. The majority of the permits sold were annual licenses to state residents, many of them to allow fishing in both coastal and non-coastal public waters. But nearly 146,000 of them were short, 10-day licenses sold to non-residents − in other words tourists who fill the hotels, restaurants and tackle shops of many small towns along the coast.

If these visiting anglers from Tennessee or Ohio can no longer cast for flounder, especially in the state’s near-shore waters, will they instead head to neighboring states like South Carolina where flounder rules are much less stringent for their fishing vacations?

David Sneed, executive director of the Coastal Conservation Association of North Carolina, which has filed a lawsuit alleging the state has mismanaged its coastal fisheries, including flounder, said if it’s not already happening, it will.

The fishing license numbers might already be showing that as North Carolina regulators have moved to limit flounder and other fisheries due to overfishing concerns, with nearly 15,000 fewer 10-day licenses sold in 2022 than 2021 − albeit the surge in outdoor activities two years ago during the pandemic shutdown could have helped swell those numbers.

Casting into Banks Channel at the southern end of Wrightsville Beach near Masonboro Inlet last week, Billy Mitchell said with a grin that he was just hoping to catch “anything.”

“But flounder is the best, and certainly what the wife likes,” said the visiting angler from Nashville. Fishermen often cite flounder as their favorite fish because of its mild taste and that you don’t need expensive gear or boat to get offshore to catch it.

Knowing it’s out of season, Mitchell said he had already caught one of the flat fish and tossed it back. He added that he had intended to come back to the N.C. coast when the short recreational season was expected to open later this year.

But now?

“I’m not sure,” Mitchell said, wiping his brow and adjusting his burnt orange University of Tennessee Volunteers hat. “I’ll have to check with the wife, but that might change things.”

SINKING FEELING: As flounder numbers flounder, NC fishermen stew over short recreational season

How did we get here?

For years, regulators have been walking a tightrope in trying to balance economic, recreational, cultural and even political needs with the hard facts of a struggling fishery in trouble.

The big rollback in the flounder fishery began in 2019, when regulators moved to limit the recreational flounder season in response to data that showed the fishery was seriously overfished.

A series of more and more stringent restrictions led to the 2023 recreational season shortened to two weeks, but even that proved to be too much.

“Estimates from 2023 indicate the recreational catch exceeded the quota allowed under a stock rebuilding plan that was included in Amendment 3 to the Southern Flounder Fishery Management Plan and adopted by the N.C. Marine Fisheries Commission,” stated a release from the Division of Marine Fisheries (DMF) announcing the total cancellation of the 2024 recreational season.

The amendment, adopted in May 2022, called for a 72% reduction in the southern flounder harvest, with both commercial and recreational fisheries seeing dramatic cuts.

Climate change is another concern among scientists, with warming sea temperatures potentially impacting the sex ratio of the fishery. Since juvenile flounders hang out in shallow, inland estuary waters, warmer water temperatures likely trigger more of the fish to be male. That could be a growing problem because female flounders grow bigger than males, and thus are more highly sought than the smaller males.

KEEPING TABS: Catch a flounder or red drum? NC recreational fishermen will soon have to report it

Didn’t just happen

Dr. Louis Daniel was the former state marine fisheries director for nearly a decade before leaving in 2016 and is now senior marine scientist at the N.C. Wildlife Federation and an adjunct professor at N.C. State University.

He said the plight the state and flounder fishermen find themselves in today didn’t just happen, but has been an issue for several decades as stock assessments showed pressures growing on the fishery even as rules were put into place to supposedly help it recover.

“This has been like watching a train wreck in slow motion,” CCA’s Sneed said.

Daniel said overfishing and discounting the impacts of discards, especially in the state’s commercial fisheries, is hampering stock recovery efforts − even as many fishermen claim they are seeing more flounder in the water than they’ve ever seen before.

“What they did with the recreational fishery was absolutely right,” he said of the decision by the state’s fishing regulators. “They did what the science told them they had to do.”

If the state can hold the line on the recreational catch and get more realistic about the impacts of flounder discards getting caught up in other fisheries, Daniel said the flounder fishery is likely to show some improvements in coming years.

But commercial fishermen, although small in number compared to recreational fishermen, have strong political allies in Raleigh, a long and rich sentimental attachment to the coast, and a significant economic impact in many areas where there are few other opportunities or industries.

In North Carolina, the number of participants in the commercial fishing industry has dropped from more than 5,000 in 2000 to fewer than 2,200 last year − a decrease of 57%. Other state statistics show the number of commercial permits and licenses issued by the state has decreased from more than 27,000 to around 19,300 in 2023. The number of fish dealer licenses also are falling as the industry shrinks, down 23% from 850 in 2000 to 655 in 2023.

Fisheries spokesperson Patricia Smith said the 2024 quota for the commercial flounder fishery has yet to be determined.

STATE OFFICIALS: No NC recreational flounder season in 2024

HOOK, LINE AND SINKING? What’s the future of NC’s commercial fishing industry?

What happens next year?

Under current management rules, exceeding a quota in one year means the following year’s allowable catch number must be reduced by the amount that exceeded the limit. When recreational fishermen caught too many flounder in 2023, that prompted the state to act.

“After subtracting the recreational overage from 2023, the recreational quota remaining for 2024 is not large enough to allow for a season opening,” stated the marine fisheries’ release announcing the closure of this year’s recreational season. “The leftover quota will be used to account for the anticipated dead discards that will occur due to incidental catch and release.”

With the 2024 recreational season canceled, the state shouldn’t have a problem having a 2025 recreational season, although it will probably have similar rules to the 2023 season − one fish per person, per day, and a minimum size of 15 inches.

The massive haul last year by recreational fishermen wasn’t the first time it has happened.

In 2022, the state’s recreational quota, or total allowable catch (TAC), was 170,655 pounds. But regulators estimated fishermen exceeded this amount by 56,340 pounds. During the two-week 2021 flounder season, recreational fishermen caught an estimated 627,000 pounds of flounder − well over the quota of 152,808 pounds.

Things, however, are looking up for recreational flounder fishermen − at least in the near term. Their overall share of the flounder fishery will increase from a 70-30 ratio this year to 60-40 next year, and that increased quota coupled with not having a recreational season this year should allow enough wiggle room for a limited recreational season in 2025.

But unless something changes, Daniel said we’re likely to see whatever recreational quota number is eventually set by regulators exceeded again.

“If we can’t effectively manage the fishery, we’ll be right back here in a couple years,” he said. “What this really highlights is the overcapacity in the fisheries, both commercial and recreational.

“That’s what we have to focus on fixing.”

Reporter Gareth McGrath can be reached at GMcGrath@Gannett.com or @GarethMcGrathSN on X/Twitter. This story was produced with financial support from the Green South Foundation and the Prentice Foundation. The USA TODAY Network maintains full editorial control of the work.