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Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks, predictions: Week 8 college football odds, spread, lines

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Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks, predictions: Week 8 college football odds, spread, lines


Two SEC West rivals are available off expensive losses trying to get again within the win column as Alabama hosts Mississippi State in school soccer’s Week 8 motion on Saturday.

Alabama racked up 49 factors on Rocky High, but it surely wasn’t sufficient to take down Tennessee and its nation-leading offense. Now at 6-1 on the 12 months, the Crimson Tide are neck and neck with Ole Miss within the SEC West title chase.

In the meantime, the Bulldogs put an abrupt finish to their former three-game win streak, wherein they scored over 40 factors every day trip, by dropping a 27-17 resolution to Kentucky, working for all of twenty-two yards within the course of.

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What do the specialists consider this matchup? Let’s examine how the School Soccer Energy Index pc prediction mannequin initiatives the sport.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks, predictions

The computer systems are siding closely with the house staff, as Alabama has the comfy 90.8 p.c probability to defeat Mississippi State on Saturday.

That leaves the Bulldogs and their vaunted Air Raid only a 9.2 p.c shot to take down the Tide on the street and keep above .500 in SEC video games.

The oddsmakers additionally predict a straightforward victory for Alabama, which comes into the sport as 21 level favorites, based on the traces at SI Sportsbook, which set the over/underneath mark at 62 factors for the matchup.

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Regardless of final weekend’s loss, the index nonetheless charges Alabama because the No. 2 staff in its nationwide 131 school soccer rankings coming into this Saturday’s recreation.

FPI charges groups by a projected per-game scoring margin, and estimates that Alabama is 28.5 factors higher than a median staff on a impartial subject, the second-highest mark within the nation, therefore its rating there.

AP prime 25 voters had been much less sort, dropping the Tide three extra spots to No. 6 total after dropping to Tennessee, trying up at ACC favourite Clemson (No. 5) and Massive Ten contender Michigan (No. 4). 

Mississippi State owns the No. 16 place on the pc’s rankings, projecting it’ll win 7.4 video games on the season. It suffered the largest drop on this week’s AP ballot, 8 spots, to No. 24 total.

Soccer Energy Index (FPI) school soccer rankings and pc prediction mannequin are a measure of staff power that predicts a staff’s future efficiency.

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Rankings and scores predictions are based mostly on 20,000 simulations of a staff’s season, utilizing a mix of analytics, together with scores so far, high quality of opponents, and a staff’s schedule.

In accordance with AP prime 25 ballot

  1. Georgia
  2. Ohio State
  3. Tennessee
  4. Michigan
  5. Clemson
  6. Alabama
  7. Ole Miss
  8. TCU
  9. UCLA
  10. Oregon
  11. Oklahoma State
  12. USC
  13. Wake Forest
  14. Syracuse
  15. Utah
  16. Penn State
  17. Kansas State
  18. Illinois
  19. Kentucky
  20. Texas
  21. Cincinnati
  22. North Carolina
  23. NC State
  24. Mississippi State
  25. Tulane

Comply with School Soccer HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Fb



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Moments that mattered in Mississippi State’s loss to No. 23 Missouri

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Moments that mattered in Mississippi State’s loss to No. 23 Missouri


STARKVILLE — Mississippi State’s defense came to play early in Saturday’s game against Missouri, but as has frequently been the case when Coleman Hutzler’s unit has a rare bright moment, the offense could not take advantage.

The No. 23 Tigers were backed up inside their own 10-yard line following a 48-yard Nick Barr-Mira punt, and then the Bulldogs’ defense delivered three straight big plays. Safety Hunter Washington violently broke up a screen pass on first down, linebacker Stone Blanton tripped up running back Nate Noel for a loss on second down, and after Isaac Smith brought the first wave of pressure on third down, Zakari Tillman sacked Brady Cook just outside the end zone.

With limited space for the snap, the ensuing Missouri punt traveled just 39 yards, and Kevin Coleman’s return gave MSU the ball at the Tigers’ 32. But on second-and-8, freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren faked a handoff to Davon Booth and faced pressure from Eddie Kelly Jr. as he surveyed his options downfield. He stumbled as he tried to step up in the pocket, leaving the ball dangling in his right hand as he tried to stay on his feet.

Defensive tackle Kristian Williams knocked the ball out, and before anyone in maroon realized what was happening, safety Daylan Carnell scooped it up in stride and took it back 68 yards for a touchdown without any Bulldog laying a hand on him.

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MSU never recovered from the shock to its system, and Missouri went on to win 39-20.

“That was rough,” center Ethan Miner said. “Those situations happen, and it’s human instinct when something goes wrong, you want to get down. You can’t allow yourself to do it. You have to keep pushing. That’s what happens in life. That’s what happens in this game. Adversity is going to strike. How are you going to respond?”

Burden’s impressive catch underscores Tigers’ third-down success

The Bulldogs (2-9, 0-7 Southeastern Conference) trailed by just four points after a quarter, but the Tigers (8-3, 4-3) extended their first drive of the second quarter when Cook evaded a would-be sack from Branden Jennings and scrambled to move the chains on third down. Missouri kept moving on the ground until Sulaiman Kpaka burst into the backfield to bring down running back Nate Noel for a four-yard loss, bringing up a third-and-9 at the MSU 28.

Cook rolled to his right and flung the ball on the run toward the end zone, where star receiver Luther Burden III was tightly covered by safety Corey Ellington. But Ellington never turned back to the ball, and Burden made a last-second adjustment to separate himself from the defensive back and bring the ball in as he went to the ground. The Bulldogs never again trimmed the deficit to one score.

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The Tigers finished 11-for-18 on third down and 2-for-2 on fourth down, and their average yards to go on third down was just 4.6. Missouri was a perfect 6-for-6 on medium-distance third downs (between five and eight yards).

“That’s just a play. (Burden) made a play,” said Blanton, who had a game-high 18 tackles. “Can’t hang our heads too hard on that. Other stuff, we have to be able to get off the field on.”

Fourth-down stop effectively ices game

Despite possessing the ball for less than four minutes in the second half, MSU pulled back within striking distance on Booth’s 43-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. After a missed field goal from Missouri, the Bulldogs were poised to get even closer, starting their next drive with a 49-yard deep ball from Van Buren to Kelly Akharaiyi.

On the second play of the fourth quarter, MSU faced a fourth-and-3 at the Tigers’ 17. Instead of kicking a field goal to get within one score, head coach Jeff Lebby kept his offense on the field, and Van Buren made a simple two-step drop and had Mosley open across the middle. But his throw was too low, and Mosley couldn’t quite reach down far enough to gather the ball in.

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The Tigers proceeded to take almost nine minutes off the clock before Marcus Carroll put the final nail in the coffin with his third touchdown run of the game.

“We’re down 11, we have a chance on fourth-and-3,” Lebby said. “We’re being aggressive. The book (says) go all the way, I’m going for it, and we have to make that layup. That’s truly a layup where we have the ability to pitch and catch.”

Mississippi State Football MSU

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Snap Counts from Mizzou at Mississippi State, Season Tracker

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Snap Counts from Mizzou at Mississippi State, Season Tracker


The Missouri offense was on the field for over two thirds of the No. 23-ranked Tigers’ victory over Mississippi State in Week 13, possessing the ball for 41 minutes and 51 seconds.

The Missouri offense played 79 snaps in the win, tying its previous high in snaps in SEC play from when the Tigers won over Vanderbilt in double overtime.

The full snap counts for both sides of the ball for Missouri revealed some interesting lineup moves. Here’s the full counts found on Pro Football Focus.

Offense

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LG Cayden Green, 79, 100%
RT Armand Membou, 79, 100%
C Drake Heismeyer, 79, 100%
QB Brady Cook, 79, 100%
LT Marcus Bryant, 79, 100%
RG Cam’Ron Johnson, 79, 100%
TE Jordon Harris, 57, 72%
TE Brett Norfleet, 53, 67%
WR Joshua Manning, 49, 62%
WR Theo Wease Jr., 45, 57%
WR Luther Burden III, 38, 48%
HB Nate Noel, 37, 47%
WR Marquis Johnson, 33, 42%
WR Mekhi Miller, 26, 33%
HB Marcus Carroll, 21, 27%
HB Jamal Roberts, 20, 25%
LG Mitchell Walters, 9, 11%
WR Daniel Blood, 5, 6%
HB Kewan Lacy, 1, 1%
TE Tyler Stephens, 1, 1%

• Interesting to see Joshua Mannig get more snaps than any other wide receiver. The coaching staff have praised his run blocking ability before though, which was what he did on 35 of his snaps.

• Pretty impressive for Marcus Carroll to score three touchdowns while only playing 27% of snaps

Defense

CB Dreyden Norwood, 50, 100%
S Daylan Carnell, 47, 94%
LB Triston Newson, 45, 90%
S Joseph Charleston, 43, 86%
CB Toriano Pride Jr., 41, 82%
ED Johnny Walker Jr., 40, 80%
ED Zion Young, 35, 70%
LB Corey Flagg, 33, 66%
DL Kristian Williams, 33, 66%
S Caleb Flagg, 27, 54%
DL Chris McClellan, 27, 54%
DL Sterling Webb, 27, 54%
S Marvin Burks Jr., 23, 46%
LB Chuck Hicks, 22, 44%
DL Eddie Kelly Jr., 17, 34%
CB Nicholas Deloach Jr., 15, 30%
ED Jahkai Lang, 12, 24%
S Tre’Vez Johnson, 11, 22%
DL Marquis Gracial, 8, 16%
DL Jalen Marshall, 7, 14%
S Sidney Williams, 7, 14%
LB Nicholas Rodriguez, 2, 4%

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• Nicholas Deloach Jr. was the more relied upon corner opposite of Dreydon Norwood for each of the past two games, but Toriano Pride Jr. stepped back into that role in this one.

• With Tre’Vez Johnson dealing with some sort of injury, Caleb Flagg saw some more playing time at safety.

Offense

LT Marcus Bryant, 764, 100%
RT Armand Membou, 756, 99%
RG Cam’Ron Johnson, 679, 89%
LG Cayden Green, 673, 88%
QB Brady Cook, 602, 79%
C Connor Tollison, 582, 76%
WR Theo Wease Jr., 566, 74%
WR Luther Burden III, 492, 64%
TE Brett Norfleet, 359, 47%
TE Jordon Harris, 331, 43%
WR Joshua Manning, 329, 43%
WR Mookie Cooper, 328, 43%
HB Nate Noel, 323, 42%
WR Mekhi Miller, 313, 41%
G Mitchell Walters, 265, 34%
HB Marcus Carroll, 239, 31%
C Drake Heismeyer, 232, 30%
WR Marquis Johnson, 223, 29%
QB Drew Pyne, 217, 28%
HB Jamal Roberts, 193, 25%
TE Tyler Stephens, 126, 17%
WR Daniel Blood, 119, 16%
T Jayven Richardson, 57, 7%
G Logan Reichert, 56, 7%
G Tristan Wilson, 49, 6%
HB Kewan Lacy, 43, 5%
G Curtis Peagler, 26, 3%
HB Tavorus Jones, 24, 3%
TE Jude James, 21, 3%
WR James Madison II, 13, 2%
WR Courtney Crutchfield, 10, 1%
WR Logan Muckey, 8, 1%
C Talan Chandler, 7, 1%
TE Whit Hafer, 3, 0%
QB JR Blood, 2, 0%

Defense

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CB Dreyden Norwood, 517, 79%
S Marvin Burks Jr., 475, 73%
S Daylan Carnell, 465, 71%
ED Johnny Walker Jr., 445, 68%
CB Toriano Pride Jr., 438, 67%
DL Kristian Williams, 401, 61%
ED Zion Young, 397, 61%
S Joseph Charleston, 384, 59%
LB Triston Newson, 380, 58%
DL Chris McClellan, 370, 57%
LB Corey Flagg, 345, 53%
CB Nicholas Deloach Jr., 313, 48%
S Tre’Vez Johnson, 269, 41%
LB Chuck Hicks, 258, 39%
DL Sterling Webb, 236, 36%
S Sidney Williams, 236, 36%
DL Eddie Kelly Jr., 223, 34%
LB Khalil Jacobs, 223, 34%
ED Jahkai Lang, 185, 28%
DL Marquis Gracial, 139, 21%
S Caleb Flagg, 124, 19%
DL Jalen Marshall, 114, 17%
ED Joe Moore, 105, 16%
LB Nicholas Rodriguez, 103, 16%
DL Sam Williams, 49, 8%
CB Marcus Clarke, 44, 7%
ED Williams Nwaneri, 38, 6%
S Jaylen Brown, 37, 6%
S Trajen Greco, 36, 6%
DB Shamar McNeil, 32, 5%
LB Jeremiah Beasley, 28, 4%
DB Phillip Roche, 24, 4%
DB Ja’Marion Wayne, 22, 3%
DL Elias Williams, 11, 2%
LB Brayshawn Littlejohn, 11, 2%
LB Brian Huff, 8, 1%
CB Jaren Sensabaugh, 6, 1%
CB Justin Bodford, 6, 1%
CB Cameron Keys, 6, 1%
CB Nasir Pogue, 6, 1%
LB Brady Hultman, 2, 0%
LB Will Norris, 1, 0%



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Mississippi blows opportunity at making the College Football Playoff with Florida loss

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Mississippi blows opportunity at making the College Football Playoff with Florida loss


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Anyone pushing for Mississippi to be in the College Football Playoff at this point is either on the payroll of the Southeastern Conference or wants to be at some point in the future. 

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That’s the truth, as plain and simple as it can be after the Rebels choked away the best opportunity in the history of their program Saturday, losing 24-17 at Florida.

No SEC championship game. 

No playoff. 

No nothin’, other than a New Year’s trip to Orlando or some such place that will force everyone in the program to pretend they’re honored and happy to be there. 

And given the vaunted name, image and likeness payroll Lane Kiffin had to work with this year, it’s nothing less than a massive program-wide choke job. You want to play with the big boys after all these years? Fine, go ahead.

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But you better take care of business. Instead, Ole Miss messed around and put together one of the most disappointing and confounding seasons they’ve ever had. 

With all the hype, all the talent, all the momentum behind Kiffin after they dominated Georgia two weeks ago, are you really going to tell me the Rebels couldn’t do better than 5-for-18 on third and fourth down against a Florida team left for dead weeks ago?

We can break down all the mistakes Ole Miss made in this game from Kiffin’s hard-headedness in handing the ball to defensive tackle JJ Pegues in short yardage to a missed 34-yard field goal to a muffed punt return that handed Florida three points to quarterback Jaxson Dart refusing to tighten his chin strap. There are a lot of things Kiffin will regret. 

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But the bottom line is pretty straightforward. No team with losses to Florida, LSU and Kentucky should be within a mile of the playoff. And the worst part for Kiffin is that it was so avoidable. 

Yeah, the SEC is tough. So what? We’re in a new era here with the 12-team playoff. In a league like the SEC, you can survive losses, especially if you also have good wins. 

There has to be a limit, though. Three is just too many. 

Florida’s playing well toward the end of the season, but a real playoff team goes into Gainesville and handles a Florida team that just got its sixth win. 

LSU is a big brand name with lots of talent, but the Tigers are 6-4 and just not very good.

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Kentucky almost certainly isn’t going to a bowl game. 

Had any of those three games gone the other way, it would have almost certainly put Ole Miss in the 12-team field. The Georgia win was that valuable, and beating South Carolina 27-3 is one of the more underrated great performances of the season given how good the Gamecocks have been otherwise. 

And at some point, there will be a three-loss team in the expanded playoff. Maybe even this year. 

But it shouldn’t be Ole Miss. It can’t be Ole Miss, not when those losses all occurred to average or worse opponents. 

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You have to point the finger at Kiffin. Yes, he’s elevated the Rebels’ program significantly. But for years, his record in the really important games that define seasons has been questionable. After the Georgia win, that narrative was starting to turn. If Ole Miss had simply beaten Florida and Mississippi State, it would have all but locked up its spot. And Kiffin would have been arguably the most important figure in the modern history of Ole Miss football. 

Maybe he will be one day. But it’s not going to be this year. 

For Ole Miss to implode and miss the playoff with such a stacked roster, and when most of the hard work had been done, is a crushing disappointment. 

It’s also a gift to the likes of Indiana and Tennessee. The manner in which the Hoosiers were beaten 38-15 by Ohio State certainly frames their resurgence a bit differently. They didn’t look the part at all and will end the season without any standout wins. But assuming they beat 1-10 Purdue next week, there’s little chance the committee can drop them below Ole Miss. 

The Vols also stand to benefit from the developments in Gainesville. The first team out this week, according to the committee, they are in much better position heading into next Saturday’s game against Vanderbilt. 

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SEC homers will undoubtedly argue that both the Vols and Rebels should be in. Already this week, commissioner Greg Sankey was on social media sharing some strength of schedule data as he begins his public lobbying effort to stack the bracket with SEC teams. 

And while the SEC is probably the best and deepest conference, you’d have to do a lot of mental gymnastics to conclude that the parity we’ve seen is evidence that it’s stacked with great teams. What’s closer to the truth is that the SEC has several pretty good, but deeply flawed teams, whose inconsistencies tend to show up on the road. 

The SEC will spend the next couple weeks claiming that the league’s depth means all of them should be in the playoff. The committee shouldn’t — and won’t — fall for it. Sorry, Ole Miss. But you’re out. 



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