How unpredictable has the 2024 college football season been?

Kansas has one of those records that tells bold-faced lies to your face. We knew the Jayhawks were good. That’s why they were ranked among the 25 best teams in the country heading into this season by both myself and the Associated Press. So, while KU became the first team ever with a losing record in the FBS to win three games in a row against top 25 programs, it shocked few that Lance Leipold’s team accomplished this feat. It’s been more shocking that this team only began to find its form after the halfway mark of the season. Kansas could just as easily have been a CFP-projected selection like Arizona State is now, even after a 3-9 2023 season.

But that’s how unpredictable this year has been and how expectations for what a team can achieve remain volatile — even with the postseason just one week away. Colorado, a team that went 4-8 last year and lost to unranked Kansas last week, can still make the CFP. Indiana, a team that had won just nine games over the previous three years combined, is one win from securing its first 11-win season in program history. And, yes, the Hoosiers can make the CFP.

And now its rivalry week — the last week of a regular season that has seen all but one team suffer a loss. Unlikely upsets have been a common theme and 2024’s most exciting trait. I wouldn’t be surprised to find out my projections suffer from that volatility at least one more time.

With that said, here are my updated CFP projections:

1. Oregon
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 11-0

2. Texas
Conference: SEC
Record: 10-1

3. SMU
Conference: ACC
Record: 10-1

4. Arizona State
Conference: Big 12
Record: 9-2

5. Ohio State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 9-1

6. Notre Dame
Conference: Independent
Record: 10-1

7. Penn State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 10-1

8. Indiana
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 10-1

9. Georgia
Conference: SEC
Record: 9-2

10. Miami (Fla.)
Conference: ACC
Record: 10-1

11. Tennessee
Conference: SEC
Record: 9-2

12. Boise State
Conference: Mountain West
Record: 10-1

QUARTERFINAL MATCHUPS

1. Oregon: Bye (would then play the winner of 8. Indiana vs. 9. Georgia)

2. Texas: Bye (would then play the winner of 7. Penn State vs. 10. Miami)

3. SMU: Bye (would then play the winner of 6. Notre Dame vs. 11. Tennessee)

4. Arizona State: Bye (would then play the winner of 5. Ohio State vs. 12. Boise State)

FIRST-ROUND MATCHUPS

5. Ohio State vs. 12. Boise State

As Ashton Jeanty continues to move toward breaking Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record — needing just 566 rushing yards — a date with an Ohio State team could make for an explosive affair.

The Buckeye defense has proven stingy, holding teams to just 241.7 yards per game this season, but no team has proven capable of stopping Jeanty.

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty has helped lead the Broncos to a 10-1 record this season. (Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)

6. Notre Dame vs. 11. Tennessee

Each program boasts an outstanding tailback. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love has rushed for 850 yards at 7.0 yards per carry this season, while Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson has rushed for 1,307 yards with 22 touchdowns through 11 games. The last time the Vols played at Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish won 41-21 in 2005.

Notre Dame sits at 10-1 heading into the final week of the regular season. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)

7. Penn State vs. 10. Miami

Cam Ward and the Hurricanes would take their high-powered offense to Happy Valley against Penn State’s capable defense. The Hurricanes have the No. 1 scoring offense in the country (44.7 points per game), while the Nittany Lions rank No. 11 in scoring defense (14.6 points per game). 

Cam Ward and the Miami Hurricanes feature the top-ranked scoring offense in the country. (Photo by Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

8. Indiana vs. 9. Georgia

In what might be the surest test of the Big Ten’s mettle against SEC power Georgia, this game could help set a new standard for not just how the Big Ten must be considered in the future, but Indiana as well. Hoosier fans would not have expected to play in the CFP in August.

Georgia QB Carson Beck has thrown for 3,132 yards and 23 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him at @RJ_Young.

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Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been on a tear since he returned from injured reserve, and his performance in the Miami Dolphins’ 34-15 victory against the New England Patriots on Sunday might have been his best so far this season.

Not surprisingly, that performance has been recognized by the NFL, which has made him one of the three nominees for the FedEx Air Player of the Week.

Tagovailoa completed 29 of 40 passes for 317 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions against New England, good for a passer rating of 128.9.

The other nominees are Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Minnesota’s Sam Darnold.

Fans can vote for the award on Twitter, with the winner announced later in the week.

Based on the performances of Week 12, Tagovailoa would seem to be a front-runner for the AFC Offensive Player of the Week award — though the Monday night game features an AFC matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers.

On Monday, Tagovailoa also was announced as the Dolphins nominee for the 2024 Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award.

Eight finalists will be selected and put on the Pro Bowl ballot for when players make their votes in December.

The award, which began in 2014, went to Dolphins defensive lineman Calais Campbell in 2022 when he was a member of the Baltimore Ravens.

Tagovailoa is one of five QBs among the nominees, along with Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Jordan Love.

Former Dolphins linebacker Kyle Van Noy is the nominee for the Ravens this year.

Fan voting for the 2025 Pro Bowl Games opened Monday.

Fans can make their selections at ProBowl.com/Vote, on team websites (such as www.miamidolphins.com/pro-bowl-games/vote) or on social media.

During the final two weeks of voting (Dec. 9-23), fans can vote directly on
“X” (formerly Twitter) by tweeting the first and last name of the player, tagging the player’s official
Twitter handle or creating a hashtag including the player’s first and last name. All three of these
methods must include the hashtag: #ProBowlVote. During the final two days (Dec. 22-23),
social votes will count as double.

The selections will be determined by balloting from fans, players and coaches, with each counting one-third of the process.

Players and coaches will cast their votes Friday, Dec. 27.

The Pro Bowl Games will take place in Orlando on Feb. 2.

The Dolphins had six Pro Bowl selections last season: QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB Raheem Mostert, FB Alec Ingold, WR Tyreek Hill, T Terron Armstead and CB Jalen Ramsey.

Last Saturday was a day of relative chaos in college football.

Seven of the top 25 teams in the US LBM Coaches Poll lost, with much of the carnage occurring in the SEC, where three top-15 teams fell, all to unranked opponents.

If there’s a conference that stands to benefit the most from that mayhem, it just might be the ACC, which now has a conceivable path to getting two teams into the 12-team College Football Playoff. Its three most likely entrants — SMU, Miami and Clemson — held up their end of the bargain with comfortable victories Saturday against Virginia, Wake Forest and The Citadel, respectively.

REQUIRED READING: CFP impact for Indiana, Tennessee leads college football winners and losers from Week 13

But what does the rest of the league look like?

Here’s how the ACC’s 17 teams stack up after Week 13 of the 2024 college football season:

ACC football power rankings

1. SMU (10-1, 7-0 ACC)

• Last week: 1
• This week: vs. Cal

The Mustangs’ 33-7 win at Virginia was the eighth victory in a row for coach Rhett Lashlee’s team and clinched it a spot in the ACC championship game. A win against Cal at home on Saturday would give SMU its second-consecutive season with at least 11 wins — a mark it hadn’t previously reached since 1982.

2. Miami (10-1, 6-1)

• Last week: 2
• This week: at Syracuse

In their first game since a gutting loss at Georgia Tech, the Hurricanes pulled away late from Wake Forest, scoring 22 unanswered points in the final eight minutes for a 42-14 victory. With a win at Syracuse, Miami will earn just its second-ever trip to the ACC championship game, a surprisingly rare appearance for a program of its historical caliber.

3. Clemson (9-2, 7-1)

• Last week: 3
• This week: vs. No 14 South Carolina

The Tigers are done with ACC play and can make the conference championship game if Miami loses at Syracuse. Even if they don’t make it to Charlotte, a win against rival South Carolina would give them not only in-state bragging rights, but it would keep their playoff hopes alive, with a 10-2 overall record.

4. Syracuse (8-3, 4-3)

• Last week: 4
• This week: vs. No. 7 Miami

The Orange’s 31-24 victory against UConn gave it at least eight wins for the fourth time since 2010. With 470 yards against the Huskies, Kyle McCord broke the program’s single-season passing yardage record. Syracuse can cap off what has been a strong first season for coach Fran Brown with a win against Miami that would shake up the national playoff picture.

5. Louisville (7-4, 5-3)

• Last week: 7
• This week: at Kentucky

The Cardinals’ loss to Stanford in Week 12 was as ugly a setback as a ranked team has endured this season, but they bounced back by throttling Pitt 37-9. Louisville nearly doubled the Panthers in total yardage, 507-265. Now, it will try to snap a five-game losing streak to rival Kentucky.

6. Georgia Tech (7-4, 5-3)

• Last week: 5
• This week: vs. No. 6 Georgia

The Yellow Jackets held on for a 30-29 victory against NC State, assuring them of back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in 10 years. They racked up nearly 400 yards of total offense despite playing much of the game with backup Aaron Philo at quarterback. Next up? Their annual rivalry game against Georgia.

REQUIRED READING: Losses by Alabama and others reshape college football’s US LBM Coaches Poll after Week 13

7. Duke (8-3, 4-3)

• Last week: 6
• This week: at Wake Forest

The Blue Devils have thrived in close games this season, with five of their eight wins coming by a single score following a 31-28 victory against Virginia Tech. They can pick up a ninth win on Saturday against a struggling Wake Forest team. It would be the fourth time since 2013 that Duke had won at least nine games, something it hadn’t previously done since its 1941 Rose Bowl season.

8. Pitt (7-4, 3-4)

• Last week: 9
• This week: at Boston College

The Panthers have lost four in a row since a 7-0 start that shot them up to No. 17 in the Coaches Poll. The latest setback was a 28-point dismantling at the hands of Louisville, a game in which Pitt lost starting quarterback Eli Holstein to a nasty-looking leg injury in the first quarter.

9. Boston College (6-5, 3-4)

• Last week: 12
• This week: vs. Pitt

The Eagles rolled past North Carolina 41-21 after holding the Tar Heels to 212 total yards and forcing three turnovers. The win got Boston College to bowl eligibility in its first season under coach Bill O’Brien.

10. North Carolina (6-5, 3-4)

• Last week: 8
• This week: vs. NC State

The Tar Heels’ three-game win streak got snapped in unsightly fashion, with a 20-point loss to Boston College in a game in which quarterback Jacolby Criswell threw three interceptions. The setback came days after 247Sports reported that 73-year-old coach Mack Brown plans to remain at North Carolina beyond this season.

11. Cal (6-5, 2-3)

• Last week: 15
• This week: at No. 9 SMU

The Golden Bears have had some tough luck in their first season in the ACC, with five one-score losses in conference play, but they’re ending the season on a strong note. Cal has won three of its past four games and became bowl eligible with a win over rival Stanford.

REQUIRED READING: Where college football conference tiebreakers stand in SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC

12. Virginia Tech (5-6, 3-4)

Last week: 11

This week: vs. Virginia

Since getting to 5-3 and seemingly putting its early season disappointments behind it, the Hokies have come undone, with three consecutive losses after a 31-28 defeat against Duke. It was Virginia Tech’s fifth one-score loss this season. Coach Brent Pry’s team will need a win against rival Virginia to earn bowl eligibility.

13. Virginia (5-5, 2-4)

• Last week: 10
• This week: at Virginia Tech

A difficult final stretch of their schedule has worn on the Cavaliers, who have lost five of their past six games after a 4-1 start. Four of those six matchups came against teams that were ranked at the time. Virginia was held to just 173 total yards in a 26-point home loss to SMU.

14. NC State (5-6, 2-5)

• Last week: 13
• This week: at North Carolina

The Wolfpack suffered an excruciating 30-29 loss to Georgia Tech, a game in which it took a six-point lead with a touchdown with 1:30 remaining, but allowed a go-ahead, 75-yard drive in just 1:08. It will need a win against North Carolina to avoid missing a bowl for just the third time in the past 11 years.

15. Stanford (3-8, 2-6)

• Last week: 14
• This week: at San Jose State

The Cardinal very nearly followed up its stunning win against Louisville with another victory, but allowed 17 unanswered points to squander a two-touchdown lead in the third quarter in a 24-21 loss to rival Cal.

16. Wake Forest (4-7, 2-5)

• Last week: 16
• This week: vs. Duke

Whatever faint hopes the Demon Deacons had of reaching a bowl were dashed by Miami in a game in which they were out-gained by a 508-193 margin.

17. Florida State (2-9, 1-7)

• Last week: 17
• This week: vs. Florida

The Seminoles snapped a six-game losing streak with a 41-7 victory against what’s now a 1-11 FCS Charleston Southern team. Already assured of a last-place finish in the ACC, coach Mike Norvell’s team can try to end a miserable season with a win against rival Florida.