Two head coaches both under .500 in two seasons are in need of a statement win early on in this SEC vs. ACC matchup as Miami and Florida meet in college football’s Week 1 action on Saturday.

Mario Cristobal and Billy Napier were heralded as the men tagged to resurrect their respective football programs, but now the Hurricanes and Gators coaches are both facing serious pressure to right the ship and record a needed early W this season.

Florida faces arguably college football’s toughest overall schedule, especially in the second half of the year, so this game means a little more for them, while Miami is hoping to score a win against an SEC team as it makes a case as the next team to beat in the ACC.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should watch out for as Miami and Florida square off from The Swamp, with our updated prediction for the game.

How to watch

When: Sat., Aug. 31
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Miami vs. Florida game odds

Miami: -2.5 (-110)
Florida: +2.5 (-110)

Miami to win: -137
Florida to win: +114

Over 54.5 points (-105)
Under 54.5 points (-115)

FPI picks: UF 57.7% | MIA 42.3%

What to watch for

1. The U’s new guys. Working behind a decent line are two top-flight transfer pickups: quarterback Cameron Ward, a dual threat who had 33 all-purpose touchdowns and 3,736 passing yards last season, and tailback Damien Martinez, who posted almost 1,200 yards a year ago and averages 6.1 yards per rush with 16 scores in his career. They could generate momentum against a Gator defense that allowed 6.4 yards per play last season.

2. Testing Miami’s secondary. A relative weakness on the team remains this pass defense after losing some important contributors from a year ago. Florida has the perimeter speed on a receiving corps led by Eugene Wilson to test that alignment, and while quarterback Graham Mertz is efficient, he’s not exactly known for his long ball, either.

3. Battle on the ground. Florida’s backs may struggle finding running lanes against a Hurricanes front seven unit that placed 2nd in the ACC by allowing just under 106 yards on the ground per game last season and only improved after scoring some decent transfer acquisitions. Montrell Johnson leads the Gators’ ground attack, though he’s coming off a knee surgery.

Miami vs. Florida prediction

On paper, Miami has the superior offensive rotation, but it’s not clear exactly how well acclimated the unit will be in the first game of the season. Early stumbles could throw a monkey wrench into the Hurricanes’ momentum early on, something Florida could take advantage of on its home field.

Graham Mertz posted good numbers a year ago, but the Gators quarterback does struggle when it comes to consistently testing the deeper portion of the field. Still, Miami’s relative weakness on the back end could play into his hands and help Florida exploit the deeper passing lanes.

But over time, the Hurricanes have more variety in their offensive skill threats and the superior alignment up front to prevent the Gators from gaining too much rhythm on the ground.

College Football HQ picks…

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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8am: Breakfast at Jimmy’s

On a strip that includes the 1950s Vagabond Hotel, this diner on Biscayne Boulevard doesn’t look like much on first glance. But this local favourite is the original neighbourhood greasy spoon, filled with leatherette booths that stick to bare legs. Here, oversized portions of American classics — including grits, homefried potatoes, eggs and corned beef hash — are served on multiple plates. There’s unlimited coffee, too.

10am: Explore Morningside

Walk off any overindulgence on the shady streets of the Morningside neighbourhood, a mile south. Look out for the architectural tributes to Bauhaus, art deco and Mediterranean Modern, in buildings with tell-tale turrets and Spanish roofs, or explore Morningside Park, which runs beside the bay with a few tiny coconut-littered beaches. A ramshackle boathouse rents kayaks and paddleboards here from 10am.

12.30pm: Tour the Design District

Stroll south into the one-time warehouse district, which developers have slowly transformed into the equivalent of Times Square for the artistic. Public sculptures installed here range from the larger-than-life — like the 10ft-tall crushed solo cup — to the interactive, with an adult-sized swing set painted mint green.

1.30pm: Lunch at Elastika

The Moore is one of multiple members’ clubs that now call the disused furniture showrooms of the Design District home. Its restaurant, Elastika is open to the public — try the kingfish crudo with fermented farro, local kohlrabi and cucumber agua chile. The 1920s atrium, with its moss-green banquettes and potted palms, sits under a giant sculpture by Zaha Hadid that takes the form of an alien-looking white web.

3.30pm: Get arty in South Beach

Hop in a taxi to cross the bay en route to historic Collins Avenue, which acts as the gateway to South Beach. It begins at The Bass, with its thorough collection of contemporary art installed in a former art deco library, flanked by swaying coconut palms. These days, it provides a platform for bold new acquisitions from young Latino artists alongside donations from Miami’s rich and famous.

5pm: Stroll Ocean Drive

Track the passage of time in the city with a wander along Ocean Drive, which has been preserved from its mid-century heyday. Join one of the dedicated tours of its white-stucco facades with Miami’s Design Preservation League, and keep an eye out for Casa Casuarina, the baroque manor that was once occupied by designer Gianni Versace before his murder here on the front steps. For sunset, you’ll find the best spot in South Pointe Park with its painted lighthouse.

8pm: Dinner at Doce Provisions

Back across the bay, in Little Havana, this popular taco joint is your best spot for dinner. If you haven’t managed to score a table, fear not: the chefs have perfected a portable asado bun, a bit like a plump taco filled with pork and pineapple confit, served with croquettes stuffed with cheese and sticky guava marmalade.

9pm: Party at Ball & Chain

This 1930s location on 8th Street made its name by attracting theatre-goers who still had energy to burn. Over the decades, people started to come from further afield for its burlesque shows and musical line-up — with a late 5am finish. Practically all that’s changed today is the sound system and the curfew — it’s a more reasonable 3am now. Patrons still dress for dancing, including on-leave sailors.

Week 1 of the 2024 college football begins on Saturday with a notable non-conference SEC vs. ACC matchup featuring two in-state marquee brands, both looking to help their head coaches get over an important hump as Miami and Florida square off in The Swamp.

Mario Cristobal and Billy Napier are both under .500 in their tenures at Miami and Florida, respectively, and each need to make a statement to their fan bases in this Week 1 clash, especially as both look forward to playing very tough schedules going forward, Florida’s arguably the hardest nationally.

What do the analytics say about the game? For that, let’s turn to he SP+ prediction model to get an early look at how Miami and Florida match up in this critical Week 1 game.

In a notable turn, the simulations currently favor the home team, but by the slimmest of margins.

In fact, SP+ predicts that Miami and Florida will effectively play to a 30-30 tie, but that result finally tilts in the Gators’ favor when accounting for their 0.3 point win margin.

The model also gives Florida the close 51 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Miami is a 2.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 54.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Miami at -140 and for Florida at +116.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take…

Other analytic tools also notably favor the Gators to hold the fort in The Swamp against the Canes.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

The index suggests that Florida will win the game in 57.3 percent of its simulations, while the Hurricanes come out the winner in the remaining 42.7 percent of sims.

The model is also expecting a very close result, currently speculating that Florida will be 0.5 points better than Miami on any field.

When: Sat., Aug. 31
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks