To some critics, he’s an out-of-step Takoma Park liberal ill-suited to the day-to-day job of working Maryland’s largest political subdivision.

However with mail-in ballots hitting mailboxes this week and early voting simply across the nook, Montgomery County Govt Marc Elrich (D) is considered favorably by many Democrats and is well-positioned to win a second time period, in line with an impartial ballot carried out final month.

The survey discovered that Elrich has extra help than his three challengers mixed, and Democrats give him excessive marks for his dealing with of most — although not all — of the largest points going through the county.

Absolutely one third — 33% — of Montgomery Democrats stated they again Elrich. Challengers David Blair and Hans Riemer every had the help of 14% of probably major voters surveyed, whereas political newcomer Peter James was the selection of 1%. The remaining 38% stated they had been undecided.

There was extra excellent news for Elrich: After 4 years on the helm of county authorities, which adopted 12 years on the county council, he’s a lot better recognized than his predominant rivals. Blair, the previous CEO of a well being care firm, is making his second run for government, whereas Riemer is a three-term member of the County Council.

The incumbent’s general favorability rankings counsel that these seeking to unseat him have their work minimize out for them. Greater than half — 54% — of Democrats have a really or considerably favorable opinion of Elrich. Riemer’s favorable/unfavorable rating stood at 29/8; Blair’s was at 28/16.

Steve Silverman (D), a former Montgomery County councilmember who’s energetic politically, stated the info had been according to what different polls have proven for the final yr.

“The 2 principal challengers haven’t contrasted themselves with Elrich,” he stated. “To beat an incumbent you must let folks know what the elemental variations between you and the incumbent are. As of June thirteenth, I haven’t seen proof of that.”

“I’m not speaking about going unfavourable,” he added. “I’m speaking about your primary distinction message.”

Silverman contributed $250 to Riemer, a longtime pal, however he stated he’s “not working for or towards anyone” within the July 19 county government major.

The ballot was carried out by Information for Progress, a left-leaning polling agency that claims its survey work in New York Metropolis’s mayoral major final yr was extra correct than different snapshots of that race.

The agency polled 529 Montgomery Democrats from Could 19-23. Respondents had been chosen utilizing voter registration knowledge and contacted by cellphone. The survey had a 4-point margin of error.

As a result of there has not been any impartial polling within the race for county government, Rockville resident Jonathan Robinson requested the agency if it will think about doing a survey. Robinson is an inexpensive housing advocate who “is personally not a fan of Marc Elrich however I’m not supporting any candidate.” He has donated to Riemer.

Robinson defined his want to collaborate with Information for Progress to get data on the race earlier than the first: “They’re a 501(c)(3) non-profit,” he stated, “In order that they have funds put aside from donations and foundations. They do polling on all types of points on a regular basis.”

Montgomery Democrats gave Elrich significantly excessive marks for his dealing with of the pandemic, public security and schooling, alongside along with his general stewardship of county authorities. He was considered unfavorably on inexpensive housing and the price of dwelling.

Former Washington Put up reporter and editor Robert McCartney stated the ballot’s findings counsel that “Blair and Riemer are splitting the anti-Elrich vote, in all probability guaranteeing his reelection.”

“If Elrich wins, I hope he’ll do extra to construct extra inexpensive housing within the county and promote financial development,” added McCartney. “Northern Virginia is clobbering Montgomery economically.”

A rich self-funder, Blair completed second within the 2018 major, simply 77 votes behind Elrich. He has been endorsed by a number of high-profile native officers and the Sierra Membership. 4 years in the past he gained the Washington Put up’s endorsement. He has vastly outspent his rivals on paid promoting, Bethesda Journal reported final week, and analysts anticipate him to promote closely in the course of the closing stretch of the marketing campaign.

Riemer hoped to choose up supporters when his council colleague Tom Hucker deserted his bid for county government. On Monday he reported that his fundraising effort had topped $1 million.

Elrich is the the one one of many “Massive 8” native leaders who faces a critical major problem this yr. Whoever wins the Democratic major in Montgomery is the overwhelming favourite to win in November, given Democrats’ huge voter registration benefit within the county.

The Information for Progress survey was first reported by Bethesda Beat.

The ballot sought Democratic attitudes on different points as nicely:

Housing flexibility

By higher than two to at least one, voters permitted of a push to change the county’s development plan to permit for various kinds of housing. “Thrive Montgomery 2050,” described as “replace to the county’s grasp plan” that “would additionally open up some single-family neighborhoods to a mixture of housing sorts, corresponding to duplexes and triplexes, however wouldn’t change zoning or different detailed land use,” had the help of 55% of these surveyed; 21% had been opposed.

Help was strongest amongst single voters, renters, Blacks and people underneath 45.

Toll lanes

Democrats had been nearly evenly break up on Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr.’s plan so as to add toll lanes to I-270 and the Capital Beltway — with 45% expressing help and 46% opposed.

Hogan

Hogan himself is far more well-liked than his toll lanes plan. Practically two-third of Montgomery Democrats — 65% — view him favorably, whereas simply 33% don’t. Amongst voters 45 and over, his favorability skyrocketed to 75%, with simply 23% opposed.