Kentucky
Kentucky is not ready for a deep postseason run
The Kentucky Wildcats were no-shows in Columbia last night as the South Carolina Gamecocks knocked off the Cats for the second straight season.
How did they do it? Well, the tape speaks for itself.
Lamont Paris had his squad prepared and executed their game plan to perfection, playing physically with the Cats at the point of attack and making sure that Kentucky could not put up any volume from 3. That ultimately led to the season low in points scored at 62 for this UK team.
Now, the question that will linger throughout the fanbase is this: Can this Kentucky team make a deep postseason run?
Obviously, the answer to that question has fluctuated throughout the last few weeks, but it all comes down to this: Offensively, they can beat anyone, but defensively, they struggle to stop any team. The stats back it up.
Let’s first start with a statistic from just conference play. According to Corey Price of the UK Sports Network, this is the first time that the Kentucky program has allowed more than 77 points in each of their first six conference games since they joined the league 91 seasons ago.
This is the 91st season that Kentucky has played in the SEC. This is the first time ever that Kentucky has allowed at least 77 points in each of their first 6 SEC games of a season.
— Corey Price (@coreyp08) January 24, 2024
To add more fuel to the fire, KenPom has also shown Kentucky’s regression on the defensive end of the court as well. In the KenPom defensive efficiency stat, here is where the Cats have ranked in the last five seasons, including this season:
- 52nd in 2019-20
- 35th in 2020-21
- 36th in 2021-22
- 68th in 2022-23
- 94th to this point in 2023-24
The regression speaks for itself when looking at the numbers. Here is the thing, though: It won’t shock anyone if the Cats come out the rest of the season and get back to their 90+ scoring games.
Ultimately, at Colonial Life Arena, the BBN saw the worst of both worlds. The defense wasn’t great, and the offense couldn’t get going, which is the recipe for disaster against anyone.
This team could beat anyone in the country, but there are also quite a few teams that can beat this team on any given night.
Are they set up for a deep postseason run? While the offense is up to par, the defense is too much of a liability right now to see Kentucky winning 4+ games in the NCAA Tournament. Until it gets better and this team shows it can play more physically, it’s hard to see this team making it past the second weekend of March Madness.
Kentucky
Trends all lean Kentucky's way in Governor's Cup
Mark Stoops owns a five-game winning streak in the Governor’s Cup series. The Wildcats have won three games in a row at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium and have not lost to Louisville at Kroger Field since 2017 when Bobby Petrino was holding the call sheet and and Lamar Jackson was playing quarterback. The Wildcats have also covered a lot of spreads in this series.
Stoops is 7-2-1 against-the-spread (ATS) in this series with with covers as a double-digit dog in 2014 and 2016. Kentucky has beaten Louisville outright as a dog three times since 2016 and has covered five straight in this series. Those are not the only trends going in Kentucky’s direction heading into this Week 14 contest.
Louisville is 0-4-1 ATS as a road favorite under Jeff Brohm with outright losses to Pittsburgh and Stanford. Kentucky is 5-0-1 ATS as a dog in its last six outing including four games this season. Kentucky covered numbers as a double-digit dog against Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Texas this season.
The visitor is 11-3-1 ATS (5-10 outright) in the last 14 meetings of this series with 10 outright wins but Kentucky has won the last two meetings at Kroger Field covering each times as a three-point favorite. In 2019, Kentucky ran away for a 45-13 victory and cruised to a 26-13 victory in 2022.
Kentucky has consistently overachieved pregame expectations in this series. The Wildcats are currently a 3.5-point dog with a total of 48.5. That’s a projected final score of 26-22.5. Will UK exceed expectations again against Louisville? A win would equal four outright upsets for the Big Blue in the last eight meetings of the series.
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Kentucky
ESPN predicts the winner between Kentucky and Western Kentucky
Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats are getting ready to host the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers for an in-state battle in Rupp Arena. This is a game that is always fun as it brings different parts of Kentucky together to share in the state’s favorite pastime, which is basketball.
WKU is 3-2 on the season with wins over Lipscomb, Jackson State, and Campbellsville. The Hilltoppers lost to Wichita State and Grand Canyon.
While Kentucky steamrolled Lipscomb, they are a solid team, and Western Kentucky was able to take them down 66-61, so the Wildcats can’t look past this matchup. This shouldn’t be an issue as Coach Pope respects the game and doesn’t let his team look past an opponent.
While WKU is a solid mid-major team, ESPN doesn’t seem to think the Wildcats will have any issue taking down the Hilltoppers, as they give Kentucky a 97.5% chance to win this game.
The best player for the Hilltoppers is guard Don McHenry, who is averaging 17.2 points per game five games into the season. The 6’2 guard is shooting 32.4% from three on the season, but he lets a lot of them fly, so the Wildcats can let him get hot from deep.
The goal for this Kentucky team when they take on WKU should be to keep working on defense and rebounding while the offense keeps doing what it has been doing all season long. If the Wildcats can keep improving in these two areas, they will be hard to beat come SEC play and March.
Kentucky
Liberty 38-21 Western Kentucky (Nov 23, 2024) Game Recap – ESPN
LYNCHBURG, Va. — — Quinton Cooley rushed for 166 yards and two touchdowns, Billy Lucas added 131 yards and a score, and Liberty gained 419 on the ground with four touchdowns in a 38-21 victory over Western Kentucky on Saturday.
Liberty (8-2, 5-2 Conference USA) has won eight-plus games for the sixth consecutive season to keep alive hopes of a second straight trip to the conference championship game. The Flames play Sam Houston (8-3, 5-2) on Friday.
Liberty scored 21 straight points to close the first quarter, the last covering 90 yards in just 45 seconds to take a 21-7 lead.
Amarian Williams made two interceptions, including one with 2:03 remaining to seal it. Caden Veltkamp was intercepted three times before finishing 20 of 34 for 262 yards and two touchdowns for Western Kentucky (7-4, 5-2).
Cooley reached 1,000 yards rushing for the second straight season. The Flames entered ranked No. 5 nationally in rushing yards/game (249.8). Quarterback Kaidon Salter also carried 11 times for 66 yards and a touchdown. Three other players had at least two rushes for Liberty, which ended with 63 carries.
The Flames, in their season finale at Williams Stadium, avoided dropping multiple conference games at home for the first time since 2005.
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