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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Kentucky's primaries

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Kentucky's primaries


WASHINGTON – All of Donald Trump’s top opponents for the Republican nomination for president dropped out of the race weeks ago, but the whole gang will be back together on Kentucky’s primary ballot on Tuesday.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie all suspended their campaigns after Kentucky finalized its ballot in January, as did pastor Ryan Binkley.

Trump has easily won nearly every Republican contest so far, but Haley has won a significant number of votes in several recent primaries, including Maryland (20%) and Nebraska (18%) this week.

President Joe Biden’s opponents in Kentucky are author Marianne Williamson and U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips. Democrats can also vote for “Uncommitted,” which has attracted protest votes in other states.

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Kentucky Voters will also decide six primaries for the U.S. House. One race to watch is the 4th Congressional District Republican primary. Rep. Thomas Massie, who backed DeSantis’ presidential bid and co-sponsored a motion to remove House Speaker Mike Johnson, is facing a challenge from Eric Deters, a staunch Trump supporter. However, Deters hadn’t reported raising any money as of the latest filing deadline and placed fourth in the 2023 gubernatorial primary.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday.

PRIMARY DAY

Kentucky holds its presidential and state primaries on Tuesday. Most of Kentucky falls in the Eastern time zone, where the polls close at 6 p.m. ET, while 41 counties are in the Central time zone, where the last polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

WHAT’S ON THE BALLOT

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Besides the presidential primaries, voters will choose nominees for the U.S. House, the state legislature and the state Senate. Kentucky held elections for governor and other statewide offices in 2023.

WHO GETS TO VOTE

Kentucky has a closed primary system, which means that only voters registered with a political party may participate in that party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either primary.

DELEGATE ALLOCATION RULES

Kentucky Republicans allocate their 46 delegates proportionally to any candidate who receives more than 15% of the vote, meaning any of Trump’s opponents could qualify for delegates. They could also splinter the anti-Trump vote, increasing Trump’s chances of being the only candidate to receive 15% of the vote and therefore the only candidate to receive any delegates.

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Kentucky’s 53 pledged Democratic delegates are allocated according to the national party’s standard rules. Twelve at-large delegates are allocated in proportion to the statewide vote, as are six PLEO delegates, or “party leaders and elected officials.” The state’s six congressional districts have a combined 35 delegates at stake, which are allocated in proportion to the vote results in each district. Candidates must receive at least 15% of the statewide vote to qualify for any statewide delegates, and 15% of the vote in a congressional district to qualify for delegates in that district.

DECISION NOTES

While Republican state parties that hold primaries this late in the cycle tend to embrace a winner-takes-all system for delegate allocation, Kentucky Republicans are dividing their delegates proportionally among candidates who receive at least 15% of the vote. For signs that a candidate not named Trump could reach that 15% threshold, look to suburban areas like Louisville and Lexington. Those areas — Jefferson and Fayette counties — are also the biggest source of GOP votes in the state.

In the 2020 presidential primary, “uncommitted” and Trump were the only two options on the Republican ballot. Statewide, “uncommitted” received 13% of the vote in the GOP primary. In Jefferson County, however, “uncommitted” received 23%.

The 4th Congressional District runs along the Ohio River, sharing its northern boundary with Indiana and Ohio. It stretches from Louisville suburbs in the western part of the district, toward the Cincinnati suburbs in Boone, Kenton and Campbell counties. Outside of those two major suburban areas, however, much of the district is rural.

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In the 4th Congressional District, the United Democracy Project, a group that has criticized Massie for his record on Israel, has spent $328,672 on the race as of Tuesday. However, those ads do not support an alternative candidate.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Kentucky mandates a recount if the top candidate wins by less than 0.5 percentage points. However, that recount rule does not apply to the presidential race. Candidates can ask for a recanvass of the vote, which entails retabulating the vote totals, if the margin is less than 1 percentage point. However, to request a recount, in which each ballot is individually hand-counted, a court must approve and prescribe the procedure.

WHAT DO TURNOUT AND ADVANCE VOTE LOOK LIKE?

As of March 31, there were 3,487,292 registered voters in Kentucky. Of those voters, 43% were Democrats and 46% were Republicans.

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In the 2023 race for governor, turnout was 6% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 9% in the Republican primary. In the 2022 Senate race, turnout was 8% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 11% in the Republican primary. In the 4th District, turnout among registered voters for the Republican primary was also 11%.

In 2022, 17% of voters cast their ballot before election day.

HOW LONG DOES VOTE-COUNTING USUALLY TAKE?

In the 2023 primary election, the AP first reported results at 6:03 p.m. ET, or three minutes after the first polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 9:56 p.m. ET with about 98% of total votes counted.

ARE WE THERE YET?

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As of Tuesday, there will be 168 days until the November general election.

___

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.

Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.



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Kentucky

Mark Pope says Kentucky will fight to get better after loss to Ohio State

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Mark Pope says Kentucky will fight to get better after loss to Ohio State


Kentucky suffered an upset loss to Ohio State on Saturday in the CBS Sports Classic in Madison Square Garden, losing 85-65. Nothing went their way in the game, as shooting struggles and physicality were major factors. The Buckeyes attacked the basket at will, and Kentucky couldn’t find any answers. Kentucky shot 30% overall and 18% from three-point range.

Mark Pope knows his team is going to work hard to try and respond well to the loss, and after the holiday break, the Wildcats will get back in the gym and strive to get better. The Wildcats seemed to lose focus on making plays for each other, and Pope talked about that after the loss.

“I know exactly how these guys will respond. They’re gonna really, really try as hard as they can to not let this destroy their couple of days off. Their job is to get really fresh right now, and then we get back together on the 26th. I know these guys. They’ll come in and it’s not gonna be just empty emotion, it’s gonna be we’re gonna get better, and these guys will get better. We just gotta keep trusting what we do. We had some defensive struggles tonight, and we just fell to pieces offensively. We just went to our default, and our default is not right yet. Our default is still bad habits. It’s not habits coming from a bad place in the guys’ hearts, it’s coming from a great place. It’s coming from a desperation to help their team, but we don’t do that by ourselves. We do it disciplined, and we do it the way we do it, and we do it by making plays for each other.”

– Pope on Kentucky responding.

With a 10-day break between games, Kentucky has some time to regroup and work to improve in those areas, especially before they begin SEC play on January 4 against Florida. Physicality should be a focal point of improvement with how physical the SEC always is.

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Sunday Headlines: Cats suffer brutal defeat vs. Ohio State

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Sunday Headlines: Cats suffer brutal defeat vs. Ohio State


Good morning BBN!

This is the first time we have had to write a headline post following a very disappointing loss, but here we are.

The Kentucky Wildcats tossed their first dud of the Mark Pope Era in Madison Square Garden, as the Cats got blitzed by the Ohio State Buckeyes.

It was not the prettiest performance from the Cats this season on either end of the floor. The Buckeyes cruised on offense shooting close to 60% from the field.

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On the flip side, Kentucky really struggled to get rolling on offense as they shot 29.8% from the field.

Despite an impressive resume, there is no way around this loss stinging some, especially after Auburn crushed this same Buckeyes team by 40+ points.

One non-conference game remains as the Cats return to Rupp Arena on New Year’s Eve when they host Brown.

This team clearly has a lot of work to do until then to

Tweet of the Day

Some more good news on the way for the Cats?

Headlines

No. 4 Kentucky Falls to Ohio State – UK Athletics

Otega Oweh scored 21 points, but No. 4. Kentucky lost to Ohio State 85-65 on Saturday in the CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden in New York.

Kentucky’s slow starts must be addressed as SEC play approaches – Cats Pause

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Kentucky survived poor first halves vs. Duke and Gonzaga but not Saturday vs. Ohio State.

Minnesota Gophers land Kahlee Tafai and Dylan Ray – Minnesota Tribune

Dylan Ray finds his new home.

Kentucky is winless against Ohio State and carries a losing record in the CBS Sports Classic- KSR

That’s not good.

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Kevis Thomas commits to Kentucky- KSR

The Cats another player to the defense.

Strong second half powers Kentucky past Belmont- Cats Pause

Kenny Brooks squad adds another win.

Rickey Henderson dies at 65- ESPN

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The Oakland A’s legend passes away.

Kentucky football transfer tracker- Cats Pause

Catch up on the latest for the football Cats.

Tiger and Charlie Woods lead at PNC Championship- ESPN

COME ON TIGER!

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Kiffin rips College Football Playoff Committee- CBS

Who could have saw this coming?





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Aaron Bradshaw got the last laugh against his former team

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Aaron Bradshaw got the last laugh against his former team


For the first time since November 19, Aaron Bradshaw jogged over to the scorers table for Ohio State, checking in at the 17:46 mark of the first half. As his name was announced over the loudspeakers, though, a roar of boos echoed inside Madison Square Garden. Splitting up with Kentucky seemingly on good terms this offseason during the coaching change, the reaction was a bit of a surprise, but you never know the true emotions of a fanbase until they experience it in real time.

The former Wildcat’s response? Two quick buckets in two minutes, followed by the sixth 3-pointer of his career in the final segment of the first half. Bradshaw would close out with 11 points good for third on the team, shooting 5-6 overall and 1-2 from three with two rebounds, one assist and two steals in 18 minutes.

Given the circumstances and opponent, it was one of the best performances of his career — and undoubtedly a special one for him personally.

What was it like getting Bradshaw back in the lineup for the Buckeyes?

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“Missing a 7-footer is always going to hurt,” Bruce Thornton, who finished with a game-high 30 points, said of Bradshaw. “Not a lot of people who are 7-foot are able to make tough shots in the mid-range. His energy and his passion, it’s very contagious. It rubs off on us. We’re just very thankful that he’s back.”

Bradshaw is now averaging 8.4 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in 22.3 minutes per contest for the Buckeyes. He returned alongside Ques Glover, who had been previously dealing with an ankle injury and had been out since Nov. 15.

Those two were different-makers in Ohio State’s win with the Buckeyes’ bench outscoring the Wildcats 26-11 on Saturday.

“I thought it was a significant boost,” Jake Diebler said. “We felt like going into this year depth was going to be a real strength for us, and we haven’t had an opportunity to play with that depth much of this year. It’s also impacted practice and building because there’s still a lot of newness in this program, new staff, new players, new system, and it’s impacted our growth a little.”

You can see just how much that one meant to Bradshaw by watching OSU’s postgame celebration from the floor at MSG.

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He wanted this one bad, and to his credit, he was a big reason for the win.



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