Georgia is currently facing its largest political upheaval since gaining independence, as widespread protests have erupted in response to the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party’s decision to suspend European Union (EU) accession talks until at least 2028. Irakli Kobakhidze, prime minister and leader of GD, announced the decision after the European Parliament passed a resolution on November 28 rejecting the outcome of Georgia’s October 2024 parliamentary elections, calling for a new election to be held within one year under international observance. It further called for the EU and its member states to impose sanctions on several Georgian high-ranking officials, including Kobakhidze, and oligarch and founder of the GD, Bidzina Ivanishvili.

The EU resolution follows a series of setbacks in Georgia’s EU integration process. In June, Brussels froze Georgia’s accession talks and rescinded €121 million in financial assistance, citing democratic backsliding incompatible with European values. GD leaders have rejected Brussels’ demands to repeal several Kremlin-style laws that have been implemented in recent years, such as the controversial “foreign agents” bill, which mirrors Russian legislation utilized to suppress dissent through the curtailing of media freedoms. Another is the “Family Values” bill, adopted to restrict LGBTQ+ rights. The ruling party has framed the European Parliament’s recent decision as “blackmail,” accusing Brussels of interfering in Georgia’s sovereignty. These events have underscored the EU’s inability to steer Georgia away from its deepening ties with Moscow.

In response to GD’s suspension of accession talks, approximately 100,000 protesters gathered outside parliament in Tbilisi, with demonstrations having already spread to at least eight cities since November 29, in response to the EU’s resolution regarding the Georgian elections. These protests have been met with a violent crackdown by authorities, deploying the use of water cannons, tear gas, and rubber bullets. Footage has circulated online showing police violently attacking unarmed demonstrators, leading to over 220 arrests, including prominent opposition leader Zurab Japaridze. Approximately 44 individuals have been hospitalized, with many more injured. Georgian authorities have also reported at least 21 police officers wounded. Protesters responded with Molotov cocktails and firework launchers.

As a result of the unrest, the EU recently announced that it is now reassessing its visa facilitation agreement with Georgia, potentially suspending it if democratic standards continue to erode. Moreover, the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have imposed travel bans on high-ranking GD officials and law enforcement officers allegedly implicated in human rights violations during the ongoing protests. The United States has also responded, suspending its strategic partnership with Georgia, which was established in 2009 to promote democratic values and economic cooperation.

Kobakhidze’s announcement to halt EU talks has confirmed popular fears of the country’s overt pivot away from the West to more closely align with Russia. Many Georgians strongly support EU integration, with a 2023 poll by the International Republican Institute suggesting that this number is as high as 89% of the population. During its time as parliament’s ruling party, GD has maintained a facade of pro-European rhetoric, simultaneously resisting the reforms required by Brussels to achieve accession. This shift is a stark reversal for a country that has been viewed as a forerunner of democratic aspirations in the post-Soviet sphere.

Georgian Dream’s rise to power in 2012 initially promised pro-Western reforms and closer ties to NATO and the EU. However, in recent years, the party has progressively embraced a Eurosceptic stance, as evidenced by its increasing reliance on anti-Western legislation and its emphasis on preserving Georgia’s cultural values, while simultaneously asserting that it is not anti-EU. This deliberate ambiguity on future European integration was viewed by many as a strategy to maintain popular support while also consolidating power through increasingly authoritarian measures.

During the recent 2024 elections, GD utilized fear mongering to gain votes, framing the opposition’s pro-European stance as antagonistic to Russia. Campaign materials juxtaposed images of war-torn Ukrainian cities with peaceful Georgian towns, leveraging public fears of Russian retaliation to achieve electoral dividends. These concerns are rooted in Georgia’s recent history, such as the 2008 war with Russia over the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as well as Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. GD’s narrative of strategic caution resonated with voters, in the context of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. This has heightened Georgia’s sense of vulnerability, especially as Russian military forces continue to occupy these breakaway regions, which are internationally recognized as part of Georgian territory. These security concerns, coupled with many opposition figures’ association with unpopular figures from the pre-2012 government, which was riddled with corruption, have allowed GD to maintain its grip on power.

It is increasingly clear that Russia has also assisted GD in remaining in power, prioritizing its influence efforts in Georgia, with Moscow leveraging a range of hybrid warfare tactics to manipulate political outcomes and propagate anti-Western narratives. For example, during 2019 protests in Tbilisi, a Russian-backed television network was implicated in the spread of disinformation to exacerbate unrest. The Kremlin also has strong ties with figures within GD, including Ivanishvili, who has been accused of having pro-Russian sympathies and links to Moscow’s influence operations, as well as strong financial ties to Russian state-owned Gazprom. Most recently, Russia used various hybrid tactics to allegedly assist GD in rigging the October parliamentary elections. The Kremlin has many reasons for taking such a heavy hand in Georgian affairs. For one, it likely seeks to reassert its dominance over the South Caucasus, utilizing Georgia as a gateway. Georgia is in a strategic location, vital for global trade routes and regional security. Russia’s successes in influencing Georgia’s political landscape have raised concerns that these strategies could be emulated in nearby Moldova, facilitating the Kremlin’s encroachment pursuits.

GD’s pivot toward Moscow is reflected in its foreign policies. Georgian imports of Russian natural gas through Gazprom have increased, reinforcing energy reliance on Moscow at a time when other regional actors have diverted away from Russian energy sources following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China has also become a key player in Georgia’s development, financing major infrastructure projects such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and the controversial Anaklia Deep Sea Port. These projects, which aim to position Georgia as a crucial logistical link between Europe and Asia, highlight the gaps left by insufficient Western investment. Georgia’s multi-vector foreign policy echoes the balancing acts of countries like Türkiye and Hungary, which maintain ties with both the East and the West. Georgia’s limited resources make this strategy precarious, rendering it vulnerable to external pressures from more assertive states.

Georgia’s shift away from the West could transform regional alliances. Armenia now represents the sole South Caucasus state that is actively in pursuit of EU membership. This isolation has the potential to thrust Armenia closer to Iran. Both nations share opposition to the Zangezur corridor – a contentious project backed by Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Russia. The corridor represents a pressing danger for Armenia’s territorial and strategic interests. The proposed corridor would cut through Armenia’s southern Syunik province and result in a permanent Azerbaijani military presence within its borders. Moreover, Georgia’s alignment with Russia, combined with Russia’s growing ties to Azerbaijan could undermine the established Türkiye-Azerbaijan alliance. In conjunction, these shifts could establish a new regional bloc which would exert significant pressure on Armenia, highlighting a need to seek stronger ties with Iran to counter this threat. However, its strained ties with Russia and limited alternatives inhibit its options.