The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party gets underway this weekend as No. 2 Georgia faces off against SEC rival Florida on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Georgia improved to 4-1 in SEC play two weeks ago in a signature victory at Texas that salvaged the team’s playoff hopes but there are tougher tests ahead before the selection committee sorts it all out.

Florida moved to 4-3 on the year with a 2-2 mark in conference games after knocking off rival Kentucky and is a respectable 34th nationally in passing output with 264 yards per game, averaging almost 31 points per game heading into the most brutal portion of any schedule in college football this season, playing 4 ranked opponents over the final 5 weeks of the year.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Bulldogs and Gators renew their rivalry this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Florida compare in this Week 10 college football rivalry game.

As expected, the models are favoring the Bulldogs over the Gators, but in a closely-fought game.

SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Florida by a projected score of 34 to 22 and will win the matchup by an expected margin of 12.5 points.

The model gives the Bulldogs a strong 78 percent chance of outright victory over the Gators.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

Georgia is a 14.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Georgia at -630 and for Florida at +460 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors, who expect the Bulldogs will dominate the Gators, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Georgia is getting 64 percent of bets to win the game and cover the big spread.

The other 36 percent of wagers project Florida will either win outright in an upset, or more likely, will keep the score to 2 touchdowns or fewer in a prospective loss.

Georgia has played some closer games this season, coming out 11.3 points ahead of its opponents this season when averaging out the scoring margins in wins and losses.

Florida has fared 2.2 points better than its opponents on average in 2024.

Those figures have grown closer over the last three games, however.

Georgia has been 14.3 points better than the competition over that span, and Florida has improved to being 11 points better than opponents over that time.

Georgia is averaging 30.5 points per game this season, compared to Florida at 28.5 points per game on average.

Defensively, the Bulldogs are surrendering 19.2 points per game and the Gators are allowing 26.3 points per game on average.

Most other analytical models also suggest the Bulldogs will take down the Gators this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Georgia came out ahead in the majority 79.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 20.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into a margin of victory? The index forecasts that the Gators will take the points this week.

Georgia is projected to be 12.4 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Georgia is first among SEC teams with an 84.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Bulldogs will win 10 games this season.

Florida could struggle getting to bowl eligibility, according to the index’s calculations entering this weekend.

The Gators are projected to win 5.7 games and have a 54.7 percent chance to become eligible for a bowl game.

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Officials in Georgia said a partial recount confirmed the ruling party had won its disputed election, with Washington and Brussels demanding an investigation.

However, the pro-western opposition said Saturday’s parliamentary vote had been “stolen” by the ruling Georgian Dream party and it refused to recognise the results, plunging the Caucasus country into uncertainty.

The pro-European president, Salome Zourabichvili, who is at loggerheads with the governing party, has declared the election results “illegitimate”, alleging there was a “Russian special operation” to undermine the vote –which the Kremlin has denied.

The central election commission told AFP on Thursday that a recount at about 12% of polling stations, involving 14% of the vote, “didn’t lead to a significant change to previously announced official results”.

“Final tallies only slightly changed at some 9% of recounted polling stations,” a spokesperson said.

Tens of thousands of people thronged the streets on Monday to protest against the alleged fraud.

International observers, the EU and the US have criticised electoral irregularities and demanded a full investigation. Georgia is an EU candidate.

Georgia’s interior ministry said two people had been arrested after alleged ballot stuffing at a provincial polling station, while prosecutors said they had opened 47 criminal cases over alleged electoral violations.

On Wednesday, Georgian prosecutors said they had summoned Zourabichvili for questioning, because she “is believed to possess evidence regarding possible falsification”. The figurehead president refused to comply, saying plenty of evidence of electoral fraud was available and prosecutors should focus on their investigation and “stop political score-settling with the president”.

Opposition parties said they would not enter the new “illegitimate” parliament, and demanded fresh elections.

The International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy, a Georgian NGO, said in a report released on Thursday that the results “regardless of the outcome, could not be seen as truly reflecting the preferences of Georgian voters”. The group said it had documented “serious (electoral) violations”, including “intimidation, ballot stuffing, multiple voting, unprecedented levels of voter bribery and expulsion of observers from polling stations”.

A group of Georgia’s leading election monitors said earlier that they had uncovered evidence of a complex scheme of large-scale electoral fraud that had swayed results in favour of the ruling party.

Before the elections, Brussels cautioned that they would be a crucial test for Tbilisi’s fledgling democracy and would determine its chances of joining the bloc.

The European Commission said in a report published on Wednesday it could not recommend opening membership talks “unless Georgia reverts the current course of action which jeopardises its EU path”.

Critics of the increasingly conservative Georgian Dream party accuse it of derailing efforts to join the EU and of bringing the former Soviet country back into the Kremlin’s orbit.

The EU halted Tbilisi’s accession process after Georgian Dream passed a law this year on “foreign influence” that opponents said mirrored repressive Russian legislation, and which has prompted weeks of large-scale street protests.

The prime minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, insisted the elections were “entirely fair, free, competitive and clean” and that EU integration was his government’s “top priority”.

Near-final election results showed Georgian Dream won 53.9% of the vote, compared with 37.7% for an opposition coalition.

ATLANTA, Ga. (WALB) – Governor Brian Kemp has extended the state of emergency for counties hit hard by Hurricane Helene.

The latest order will last until Nov. 6th.

Kemp took to social media and wrote, “After one of the most destructive storms our state has ever experienced, we know Georgians impacted by Hurricane Helene need every resource available as they continue to recover.”

South Georgia counties included in the order include:

• Atkinson
• Ben Hill
• Berrien Brooks
• Colquitt
• Cook
• Echols
• Lanier
• Lowndes
• Tift
• Turner
• Worth

Read the full executive order

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