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Georgia vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model

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Georgia vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model


The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party gets underway this weekend as No. 2 Georgia faces off against SEC rival Florida on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Georgia improved to 4-1 in SEC play two weeks ago in a signature victory at Texas that salvaged the team’s playoff hopes but there are tougher tests ahead before the selection committee sorts it all out.

Florida moved to 4-3 on the year with a 2-2 mark in conference games after knocking off rival Kentucky and is a respectable 34th nationally in passing output with 264 yards per game, averaging almost 31 points per game heading into the most brutal portion of any schedule in college football this season, playing 4 ranked opponents over the final 5 weeks of the year.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Bulldogs and Gators renew their rivalry this weekend?

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For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Florida compare in this Week 10 college football rivalry game.

As expected, the models are favoring the Bulldogs over the Gators, but in a closely-fought game.

SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Florida by a projected score of 34 to 22 and will win the matchup by an expected margin of 12.5 points.

The model gives the Bulldogs a strong 78 percent chance of outright victory over the Gators.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

Georgia is a 14.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Georgia at -630 and for Florida at +460 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

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If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors, who expect the Bulldogs will dominate the Gators, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Georgia is getting 64 percent of bets to win the game and cover the big spread.

The other 36 percent of wagers project Florida will either win outright in an upset, or more likely, will keep the score to 2 touchdowns or fewer in a prospective loss.

Georgia has played some closer games this season, coming out 11.3 points ahead of its opponents this season when averaging out the scoring margins in wins and losses.

Florida has fared 2.2 points better than its opponents on average in 2024.

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Those figures have grown closer over the last three games, however.

Georgia has been 14.3 points better than the competition over that span, and Florida has improved to being 11 points better than opponents over that time.

Georgia is averaging 30.5 points per game this season, compared to Florida at 28.5 points per game on average.

Defensively, the Bulldogs are surrendering 19.2 points per game and the Gators are allowing 26.3 points per game on average.

Most other analytical models also suggest the Bulldogs will take down the Gators this week.

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That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Georgia came out ahead in the majority 79.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 20.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into a margin of victory? The index forecasts that the Gators will take the points this week.

Georgia is projected to be 12.4 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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Georgia is first among SEC teams with an 84.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Bulldogs will win 10 games this season.

Florida could struggle getting to bowl eligibility, according to the index’s calculations entering this weekend.

The Gators are projected to win 5.7 games and have a 54.7 percent chance to become eligible for a bowl game.

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Georgia

Final recount confirms Georgia ruling party victory says electoral commission

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Final recount confirms Georgia ruling party victory says electoral commission


Officials in Georgia said a partial recount confirmed the ruling party had won its disputed election, with Washington and Brussels demanding an investigation.

However, the pro-western opposition said Saturday’s parliamentary vote had been “stolen” by the ruling Georgian Dream party and it refused to recognise the results, plunging the Caucasus country into uncertainty.

The pro-European president, Salome Zourabichvili, who is at loggerheads with the governing party, has declared the election results “illegitimate”, alleging there was a “Russian special operation” to undermine the vote –which the Kremlin has denied.

The central election commission told AFP on Thursday that a recount at about 12% of polling stations, involving 14% of the vote, “didn’t lead to a significant change to previously announced official results”.

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“Final tallies only slightly changed at some 9% of recounted polling stations,” a spokesperson said.

Tens of thousands of people thronged the streets on Monday to protest against the alleged fraud.

International observers, the EU and the US have criticised electoral irregularities and demanded a full investigation. Georgia is an EU candidate.

Georgia’s interior ministry said two people had been arrested after alleged ballot stuffing at a provincial polling station, while prosecutors said they had opened 47 criminal cases over alleged electoral violations.

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On Wednesday, Georgian prosecutors said they had summoned Zourabichvili for questioning, because she “is believed to possess evidence regarding possible falsification”. The figurehead president refused to comply, saying plenty of evidence of electoral fraud was available and prosecutors should focus on their investigation and “stop political score-settling with the president”.

Opposition parties said they would not enter the new “illegitimate” parliament, and demanded fresh elections.

The International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy, a Georgian NGO, said in a report released on Thursday that the results “regardless of the outcome, could not be seen as truly reflecting the preferences of Georgian voters”. The group said it had documented “serious (electoral) violations”, including “intimidation, ballot stuffing, multiple voting, unprecedented levels of voter bribery and expulsion of observers from polling stations”.

A group of Georgia’s leading election monitors said earlier that they had uncovered evidence of a complex scheme of large-scale electoral fraud that had swayed results in favour of the ruling party.

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Before the elections, Brussels cautioned that they would be a crucial test for Tbilisi’s fledgling democracy and would determine its chances of joining the bloc.

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The European Commission said in a report published on Wednesday it could not recommend opening membership talks “unless Georgia reverts the current course of action which jeopardises its EU path”.

Critics of the increasingly conservative Georgian Dream party accuse it of derailing efforts to join the EU and of bringing the former Soviet country back into the Kremlin’s orbit.

The EU halted Tbilisi’s accession process after Georgian Dream passed a law this year on “foreign influence” that opponents said mirrored repressive Russian legislation, and which has prompted weeks of large-scale street protests.

The prime minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, insisted the elections were “entirely fair, free, competitive and clean” and that EU integration was his government’s “top priority”.

Near-final election results showed Georgian Dream won 53.9% of the vote, compared with 37.7% for an opposition coalition.

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Gov. Brian Kemp extends Helene state of emergency order for parts of Georgia

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Gov. Brian Kemp extends Helene state of emergency order for parts of Georgia


ATLANTA, Ga. (WALB) – Governor Brian Kemp has extended the state of emergency for counties hit hard by Hurricane Helene.

The latest order will last until Nov. 6th.

Kemp took to social media and wrote, “After one of the most destructive storms our state has ever experienced, we know Georgians impacted by Hurricane Helene need every resource available as they continue to recover.”

South Georgia counties included in the order include:

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  • Atkinson
  • Ben Hill
  • Berrien Brooks
  • Colquitt
  • Cook
  • Echols
  • Lanier
  • Lowndes
  • Tift
  • Turner
  • Worth

Read the full executive order

Have a news tip or see an error that needs correction? Let us know. Please include the article’s headline in your message.

To stay up to date on all the latest news as it develops, follow WALB on Facebook and X (Twitter). For more South Georgia news, download the WALB News app from the Apple Store or Google Play.





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Three of the most important down-ballot races facing Georgians in the 2024 election

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Three of the most important down-ballot races facing Georgians in the 2024 election


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The presidential race is easily the biggest to watch this election. But, it’s certainly not the only important one in Georgia.

USA TODAY recently provided an analysis of each state’s less high-profile but very consequential races. Here are the three listed for Georgia:

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Georgia House District 42

Who is running: Gabriel Sanchez, a 27-year-old Democratic Socialist, and Republican Diane Jackson are both vying for their first term in the Georgia legislature.

Where is District 42: Covers much of the Smyrna area, according to Ballotpedia.

What’s at stake: Sanchez is the first Democratic Socialist to win a state primary in Georgia, according to the Atlanta chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America. In the May primary, he defeated incumbent Rep. Teri Anulewicz, who has served in the House since 2017. District 42 has not been represented by a Republican since 2012 and overwhelmingly voted for Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, meaning Sanchez will likely be the first Democratic Socialist state lawmaker in Georgia’s history.

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Georgia House District 53

Who is running: Incumbent Rep. Deborah Silcox, a Republican, is vying for her second term representing District 53 against Democrat Susie Greenberg.

Where is District 53: Covers parts of the Roswell and Sandy Springs area, according to Ballotpedia.

What’s at stake: This race is one of the most competitive in the state, and one of the most expensive legislative battles. Silcox flipped the district Republican in the last election, winning by fewer than 1,500 votes. Greenberg has raised nearly $432,000, according to her most recent campaign filing, more than four times Silcox’s $103,000 from this year’s campaign. Silcox previously represented House District 52 but lost to Rep. Shea Roberts, a Democrat, in 2020. Silcox notably refused to concede for over six months following the election, after a lawsuit was filed by a Sandy Springs resident alleging that voter fraud had occurred in the district. The case was eventually dismissed by the Georgia Supreme Court.

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Georgia Senate District 48

Who is running: Incumbent Sen. Shawn Still, a Republican, is defending his seat from Democratic challenger Ashwin Ramaswami.

Where is District 48: Approximate of north Johns Creek and east Alpharetta, according to Ballotpedia.

What’s at stake: Still was one of 19 people indicted in Georgia as part of former President Trump’s fake elector scheme, having served as a secretary who signed and filed false documents in an attempt to overturn the 2020 election results. His opponent, Ramaswami, has been campaigning on his experience in election cybersecurity and other progressive issues, and has raised more than five times as much as Still, according to recent campaign filings. If elected, Ramaswami would be the first Indian American and first Gen Z lawmaker in the Georgia Senate.



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