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Georgia vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model

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Georgia vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model


The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party gets underway this weekend as No. 2 Georgia faces off against SEC rival Florida on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Georgia improved to 4-1 in SEC play two weeks ago in a signature victory at Texas that salvaged the team’s playoff hopes but there are tougher tests ahead before the selection committee sorts it all out.

Florida moved to 4-3 on the year with a 2-2 mark in conference games after knocking off rival Kentucky and is a respectable 34th nationally in passing output with 264 yards per game, averaging almost 31 points per game heading into the most brutal portion of any schedule in college football this season, playing 4 ranked opponents over the final 5 weeks of the year.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Bulldogs and Gators renew their rivalry this weekend?

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For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Florida compare in this Week 10 college football rivalry game.

As expected, the models are favoring the Bulldogs over the Gators, but in a closely-fought game.

SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Florida by a projected score of 34 to 22 and will win the matchup by an expected margin of 12.5 points.

The model gives the Bulldogs a strong 78 percent chance of outright victory over the Gators.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

Georgia is a 14.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Georgia at -630 and for Florida at +460 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

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If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors, who expect the Bulldogs will dominate the Gators, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Georgia is getting 64 percent of bets to win the game and cover the big spread.

The other 36 percent of wagers project Florida will either win outright in an upset, or more likely, will keep the score to 2 touchdowns or fewer in a prospective loss.

Georgia has played some closer games this season, coming out 11.3 points ahead of its opponents this season when averaging out the scoring margins in wins and losses.

Florida has fared 2.2 points better than its opponents on average in 2024.

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Those figures have grown closer over the last three games, however.

Georgia has been 14.3 points better than the competition over that span, and Florida has improved to being 11 points better than opponents over that time.

Georgia is averaging 30.5 points per game this season, compared to Florida at 28.5 points per game on average.

Defensively, the Bulldogs are surrendering 19.2 points per game and the Gators are allowing 26.3 points per game on average.

Most other analytical models also suggest the Bulldogs will take down the Gators this week.

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That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Georgia came out ahead in the majority 79.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 20.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into a margin of victory? The index forecasts that the Gators will take the points this week.

Georgia is projected to be 12.4 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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Georgia is first among SEC teams with an 84.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Bulldogs will win 10 games this season.

Florida could struggle getting to bowl eligibility, according to the index’s calculations entering this weekend.

The Gators are projected to win 5.7 games and have a 54.7 percent chance to become eligible for a bowl game.

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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Alabama linebacker to transfer to Georgia Tech

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Alabama linebacker to transfer to Georgia Tech


Georgia Tech

Pro Football Focus graded Noah Carter Alabama’s third-best tackler this season.

Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton runs against Alabama linebacker Noah Carter during the first half of a Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game, Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025, in Atlanta. (Mike Stewart/AP)

A third Alabama player is transferring to Georgia Tech for the 2026 season.

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Noah Carter, a 6-foot-4, 243-pound linebacker, intends to transfer to Tech, On3 reported Saturday. Carter spent two seasons with the Crimson Tide.

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Chad Bishop

Chad Bishop is a Georgia Tech sports reporter for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.



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Arsenal lead hunt for Georgia Stanway with England midfielder to leave Bayern in summer

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Arsenal lead hunt for Georgia Stanway with England midfielder to leave Bayern in summer


Arsenal are among the leading candidates to sign Georgia Stanway this summer after Bayern Munich confirmed the England midfielder would leave the German club when her contract expires.

According to sources, the north London club are understood to be one of a number of teams interested in acquiring the 27-year-old on a free transfer, but Renée Slegers’ team are leading the running having tracked Stanway’s progress and are eager to add a world-class midfielder to their squad.

Stanway helped England win back-to-back European titles as well as being part of a Bayern Munich team that have won three consecutive Frauen Bundesliga titles since she arrived in the summer of 2022.

Bayern’s director of women’s football, Bianca Rech, praised her “commitment and character”, adding in a statement on Saturday: “As the first English player at FC Bayern Women, Georgia Stanway not only made history but also stole our hearts. We talked a lot and openly about her future, and when she told us that she now wanted to try something new, her reasons were completely understandable.”

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Stanway posted on social media that she had made lifelong friends at the German club and told the club: “I will give everything for the club and its sporting success until my very last day, just as I have for the past three and a half years. And I want to say goodbye to the club and the fans at the end of the season with as many titles as possible.”

Aston Villa are set to sign the France midfielder Oriane Jean-François from Chelsea for £450,000 in a club-record fee for a sale by the London side. It is understood that the deal is agreed and the 24-year-old’s move should be finalised in the coming days. The former Paris Saint-Germain player has been with Chelsea since 2024.



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Georgia ‘super flu’ activity hits ‘extremely high’ levels: When to call 911

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Georgia ‘super flu’ activity hits ‘extremely high’ levels: When to call 911


Georgia remains in the “extremely high” flu activity category, according to new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, even as some indicators show signs of leveling off nationwide.

Emergency crews in the Atlanta area say they’re feeling the impact firsthand, with a sharp spike in flu-related 911 calls.

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Flu cases in Georgia

What we know:

EMTs and paramedics at American Medical Response in DeKalb County report handling more flu-related calls than usual this season.

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“This is one of the most difficult flu seasons that I’ve seen in a long time,” said Israel Contreras, AMR EMS transformation and innovation manager in the South Region.

Contreras said crews in DeKalb are busier than last flu season. 

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“We had an increase of about 60% of flu-like symptoms, cause, that’s including, you know, whatever range of flu-like symptoms, fevers, headaches,” he said.

The surge in calls in DeKalb reflects broader trends reported by the CDC. In its latest report, the agency estimates at least 15 million people have gotten sick this season, resulting in 180,000 hospitalizations and 7,400 deaths.

While some indicators have decreased or remained stable this week, the CDC cautioned that it is too early to say whether the flu surge has peaked, noting that the holidays may have affected the numbers.

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Super flu symptoms

What they’re saying:

In DeKalb County, Contreras said the increase in calls is straining resources. 

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“We have to be ready for any kind of emergency that’s happening and so when we have an increase of this nature, we get delayed because we tax the hospital. So now we’re delayed at the hospitals,” he said.

Contreras added that many flu-related calls are for non-emergencies that could be treated at home. 

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He urged residents to call 911 only for life-threatening situations, such as trouble breathing or chest pain, or if symptoms return with a high fever after initially improving.

“I’m not trying to discourage people from calling 911 when they feel like they have an actual life-threatening emergency. I just want people to evaluate whether they actually are having a life-threatening emergency,” he said.

The CDC also attributed the difficult season to a new variant, sometimes called the “super flu.” Doctors are urging everyone to get a flu shot to protect against severe complications and to stay home if they are sick.

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Fighting influenza at home

What you can do:

Based on guidance from AMR and public health officials, DeKalb County encourages residents to:

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  • Get vaccinated. Annual flu vaccines remain the most effective way to prevent severe illness. Residents at higher risk should also ask their healthcare provider about the pneumococcal vaccine.
  • Practice good hygiene. Wash hands frequently with soap and water for at least 20 seconds or use hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol.
  • Cover coughs and sneezes. Use a tissue or your elbow to reduce the spread of airborne viruses.
  • Stay home when sick. Avoid exposing others by remaining home until symptoms improve.

When to call 911 for the flu

AMR advises residents to call 911 or seek emergency medical attention if they experience:

  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Chest pain or persistent pressure
  • Sudden dizziness, confusion, or severe weakness
  • Severe or prolonged vomiting
  • Flu symptoms that improve but then return with a high fever or worsening cough

The Source: The article cites data from the CDC and Georgia Department of Public Health, alongside an interview between Israel Contreras of AMR and FOX 5’s Tyler Fingert.

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