Georgians began voting on Saturday in watershed elections widely seen as decisive for the fate of the country’s fledgling democracy and European aspirations.

The parliamentary elections pit an unprecedented union of pro-Western opposition forces against a ruling party accused of democratic backsliding and shifting towards Russia. 

Brussels has warned that the vote will determine European Union candidate Tbilisi’s chances of joining the bloc.

Opinion polls indicate opposition parties could get enough votes to form a coalition government to supplant the ruling Georgian Dream party, controlled by powerful billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili.

“Georgia’s traditionally fractured opposition forces have managed to forge an unprecedented united front against Georgian Dream,” said analyst Gela Vasadze at Georgia’s Strategic Analysis Centre.

“But if the ruling party attempts to stay in power regardless of the election outcome, then there is the risk of post-electoral turmoil.”

Georgian Dream says it wants to win a supermajority that will allow it to pass a constitutional ban on all major opposition parties.

In power since 2012, the party initially pursued a liberal pro-Western policy agenda. But over the last two years the party has reversed course.

Its campaign has centered on a conspiracy theory about a “global war party” that controls Western institutions and is seeking to drag Georgia into the Russia-Ukraine war.

In a country still scarred by Russia’s 2008 invasion, the party has offered voters bogeyman stories about an imminent threat of war, which only Georgian Dream could prevent.

In a recent TV interview, Ivanishvili painted a grotesque image of the West where “orgies are taking place right in the streets.”

‘Crucial test’

On Wednesday, Georgian Dream bussed tens of thousands of people from across the country to a campaign rally in Tbilisi where Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze vowed to lead Georgia toward EU membership.

At the same time, he accused EU leaders of “injustice, the rejection of Christian dogmas, LGBT propaganda, and disrespect for others’ sovereignty.”

Last Sunday, tens of thousands of Georgians staged a pro-Europe rally in the capital.

Georgian Dream’s passage of a controversial “foreign influence” law this spring, targeting civil society, sparked weeks of mass street protests and was criticized as a Kremlin-style measure to silence dissent.

The move prompted Brussels to freeze Georgia’s EU accession process, while Washington imposed sanctions on dozens of Georgian officials.

Earlier this month, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell cautioned that Georgian Dream’s actions “signal a shift towards authoritarianism.”

He branded the upcoming polls “a crucial test for democracy in Georgia and its European Union path.”

The Kremlin on Friday blasted “unprecedented attempts at Western interference” in the vote, accusing it of “trying to twist Tbilisi’s hand” and “dictate terms.”

Kobakhidze has said that ties with the West will normalize once the Ukraine war ends.

Undecided voters

The latest polls show that the opposition is poised to garner enough ballots to take power.

The potential coalition grouping includes Georgia’s main opposition force, jailed ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) and Akhali, a recently formed party headed by former UNM leaders.

Along with several smaller parties, they have signed up to a pro-European policy platform outlining far-reaching electoral, judicial and law enforcement reforms.

They have agreed to form an interim multi-party government to advance the reforms – if they command enough seats in parliament – before calling fresh elections.

Nestled between the Caucasus Mountains and the Black Sea, Georgia was once considered a rare example of a democracy among ex-Soviet nations.

But elections in the country of some four million regularly spark mass protests.

A poll conducted by US pollster Edison Research shortly before the elections showed 34% of decided voters would cast their ballots for Georgian Dream, while the four opposition alliances combined are set to garner 53% of the vote.

No other party is expected to clear the five-percent electoral threshold needed to secure seats in the 150-member legislature.

But the outcome of the vote is far from a foregone conclusion, as more than a quarter of respondents told the pollster they were either undecided or refused to name their preferred political force.

Voting, which started at 0400 GMT, ends at 1600 GMT, with exit polls set to be released on closing.

The elections, held under a proportional party list system, will be monitored by international observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.