In the face of challengers, Donalds’ campaign has highlighted his polling advantage.
Paul Renner, a candidate for Florida Governor speaks at Seed to Table in Naples
Florida gubernatorial candidate, Paul Renner speaks at Seed to Table in Naples. Gets endorsement from Stand for Health Freedom group
- U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds leads in polls for the Florida GOP gubernatorial nomination with 45% support.
- The election is a year away, but rivals like former House Speaker Paul Renner and perhaps Lt. Gov. Jay Collins are beginning to challenge Donalds.
- But a large portion of Republican voters, nearly 50%, remain undecided in the race.
Less than 12 months until the election, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, who has the backing of President Donald Trump, is comfortably ahead in polls for the GOP nomination to succeed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
But there are signs the sleepy race is sparking to life: Donalds’ rivals are lining up to attack the Naples Republican and chip away at his lead in the polls.
Former House Speaker Paul Renner released an extensive economic platform on Nov. 14 focused on affordability – a topic top of mind for voters in the recent off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia.
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins is a former Green Beret in the U.S. Army who was elected to the Florida Senate in 2022. DeSantis selected him to fill the vacant lieutenant governor position in August, fueling speculation he’d later run to replace the term-limited DeSantis next year.
Collins hasn’t officially declared his candidacy but continues to tease his own run, and has recently started unsubtly slamming Donalds online.
“Let’s face it. Most members of Congress won’t pass a single meaningful bill for their district,” Collins posted on X on Nov. 13. “So they turn to Fox News or CNN to build name ID … and then run for Governor.”
A nonprofit organization, Florida Fighters, also started running ads featuring Collins.
There’s also the prospect of a wildcard in the race. James Fishback, the 30-year-old CEO of the investment firm Azoria, has said he’ll officially announce his campaign soon. He has repeatedly attacked Donalds, particularly on immigration policies related to the federal H1B visa program, calling him “DEI Donalds” and “H1Byron.”
Byron Donalds can boast he’s tops in the polls
In the face of these challengers, Donalds’ campaign has highlighted his polling advantage.
A Victory Insights poll conducted Nov. 11–13 of 600 likely Republican voters found he has 45% support, while Renner has 2.7%, Collins 1.2% and Fishback 1.1%. Nearly half of respondents (49.9%), however, said they were undecided, leaving a pathway for the trailing pack to win over the electorate.
Donalds has continued to campaign, attending Turning Point USA events at University of Florida in the last week. And he’s started to talk more about the cost of living, telling Newsmax on Nov. 13 that Florida will have to develop its own health care plan if Congress can’t fix or replace the Affordable Care Act. Subsidies for coverage plans on ACA exchanges are set to expire at the end of the year, boosting monthly costs.
“Health care costs are out of control. If the feds aren’t going to be responsive then Florida is going to have to lead the way,” Donalds said.
Affordability has become a catchphrase for campaigns as costs have continued to rise, including for housing and beef and grocery staples.
Renner’s plan would tackle housing costs by slashing property taxes and passing more litigation reforms to drive down property insurance rates. He also wants to keep tuition rates level for higher education and expand vocational programs to generate more high-paying jobs.
The plan would also eliminate H1B visas for workers at state agencies. DeSantis recently said he’s eliminating H1B visas for employees at state universities.
The H1B visa program, started in 1990 by Congress, has been criticized by hardline anti-immigration hawks as being abused by large corporations to bring in foreign workers at the expense of Americans.
“We can provide residents with lower costs and a business climate that creates jobs with better incomes,” Renner said in a statement.
“This plan begins with an immediate and overdue property tax rollback, through legislative action,” he added. “This will ease the financial burden of hardworking taxpayers across the state while we await long-term reforms that require constitutional amendment a year from now.”
On the Democratic side, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings got in the race earlier this month, challenging former U.S. Rep. David Jolly who announced his campaign in the summer.
Gray Rohrer is a reporter with the USA TODAY Network-Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at grohrer@gannett.com. Follow him on X: @GrayRohrer.