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Score Predictions For Florida State At No. 10 Notre Dame

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Score Predictions For Florida State At No. 10 Notre Dame


Florida State has three games remaining in its 2024 season and the focus has turned to a tough road matchup against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday night. This is arguably the hardest game this year for the Seminoles with the team away from home, on a five-game losing streak, and facing a top-10 opponent that has College Football Playoff aspirations to protect.

The Fighting Irish enter the game at 7-1 under third-year head coach Marcus Freeman. Notre Dame was upset by Northern Illinois early in the season but has scored more points than Florida State has in any game this season in each of its seven wins. Defensively, the Irish sport one of the top units in the country as they rank eighth in total defense, sixth in turnovers forced, fourth in passing defense, and fourth in scoring defense.

Notre Dame also has a strong rushing offense, led by quarterback Riley Leonard and running back Jeremiyah Love. The Fighting Irish average 215.6 rushing yards per game, which doesn’t bode well for a Florida State defense that has surrendered more than that mark in losses to Miami (230) and North Carolina (289).

READ MORE: FSU Fan Support Plummets as Mike Norvell Faces Historic Losing Season

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Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Fighting Irish.

In a season of bad losses, last Saturday’s defeat against North Carolina felt like true rock bottom for Florida State. The 24-point drubbing tied for Mike Norvell’s worst home loss in Tallahassee in four years and the Seminoles flat-out quit in the second half. Norvell basically said as much in his post-game press conference without saying it. This team is lost and there’s no fixing it in these final three games.

I continue to have zero faith in Florida State’s offense’s ability to operate. It’s a unit of moving parts with every position group except the tight ends having at least one player out for the season. The offensive line could very well end up starting its ninth different combination in ten games which is impressive in a laughably bad way.

I’m also questioning the effort on defense as we saw the secondary make a few business decisions against the Tar Heels. To add to that, redshirt junior defensive end Patrick Payton has one assisted tackle in his last 108 snaps in a pair of losses where the opponents ran the ball a combined 95 times. Whatever the reason, Payton hasn’t risen to the lofty expectations that surrounded him during the preseason. The Seminoles will also be without sophomore linebacker Justin Cryer, one of the lone players who has shown any semblance of leadership.

Considering that Notre Dame is statistically a better rushing team than the Hurricanes and Tar Heels, along with having a dual-threat quarterback in Riley Leonard, I expect Florida State to get run all over once again. The Seminoles seem to have let the results of the season bring them down and that could be a killer against the most talented team they’ll play all year. With this one falling on the road, don’t be surprised if it’s a sizable loss.

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2024 Season Prediction Record: 6-3

Fighting Irish 44, Seminoles 6

You think UNC did a good job of rushing against FSU last weekend? Get ready for this Saturday night against the Irish. Not only do the Irish have two capable backs to do damage, the third is their quarterback Riley Leonard, who leads the team in touchdowns and is a menace with his legs who will certainly want some revenge after his loss during his game against the Seminoles last season.

In the past, FSU has done a poor job dealing with quarterbacks like this and I’m expecting another game with the same result if not worse. Yes, we know the Seminoles can’t score on offense but the low energy from that side of the ball is infecting over to the defense, certainly on third downs.

The only time this game will be close is when the captains meet midfield and do the coin toss. After that, it’s going to be a long chilly night in South Bend for Mike Norvell and Florida State.

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2024 Season Prediction Record: 6-3

Fighting Irish 43, Seminoles 9

This game will not be close. Notre Dame and Marcus Freeman have won their games by an average of 31 PPG since that embarrassing Northern Illinois loss. So they’re winning their games by twice as many points as FSU scores. So… yeah. Bold prediction: the Seminoles will never enter the red zone. I’ll be watching the FSU Basketball game against Rice instead, and I’d encourage others to join.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 5-4

Fighting Irish 45, Seminoles 6

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There’s no sense in dragging this one out. Florida State is 1-8, and every statistic out there reflects as much. The ‘Noles are averaging 14.4 points per game, the nation’s second-worst scoring average behind only Air Force. Not to mention, the Seminoles have failed to surpass the 16-point threshold since Week 0 against the Yellow Jackets. Despite improvements on the defensive side of the ball (albeit minute improvements), the ‘Noles have been unable to spark the offense regardless of who has been at quarterback. The rushing attack averages 76.1 yard per game, which ranks 132nd in the country, and the passing game has fallen to the 108th rank in recent weeks. Put simply, this is a Florida State team with a stagnant offense and an inability to go toe-to-toe for all four quarters. It has not mattered who the opponent on the other side has been. Mike Norvell’s team is playing some bad football at the moment. 

Now, the Seminoles must step into a hostile environment in South Bend, Indiana, to face a Notre Dame Fighting Irish squad that has more than regained their footing since their upset loss at the hands of Northern Illinois. The Irish have come back strong, with an offense that ranks within the top 20 scoring offenses in the country and a stalwart defense that ranks 4th in points against (12.1 points per game). HC Marcus Freeman’s group hasn’t scored less than 28 points since their loss to the Huskies. Despite some inconsistencies from QB Riley Leonard through the passing game, Notre Dame’s rushing game is their strong suit on offense. RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame’s leading rusher, has tallied 9 TDs on the ground — someone to keep an eye on come Saturday. Long story short, Freeman’s group has played with a vengeance, undeterred by the countless people that have written them off. On paper, Florida State should be a cupcake for them. 

ESPN’s FPI Matchup Predictor favors the Irish heavily, showing a staggering 96.5% in their favor. Vegas oddsmakers are also heavily favoring Notre Dame with a spread currently set at (-24.5). Notre Dame in November — in the shadow of “Touchdown Jesus” — is a tall order even when your football team is good. The Florida State Seminoles, in their current form, are most certainly not. FSU ranks nearly dead last in every meaningful statistic, they have shown little to no improvement week over week, thus giving me little reason to believe that they’re even capable of pulling off a miracle. Every fiber in my being hurts to write these words (just ask anyone), but reality sets in for everyone at one moment or another. Irish win big. 

2024 Season Prediction Record: 5-4

Fighting Irish 49, Seminoles 17

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There isn’t much I can say about Florida State winning this game. I hate to push doubt onto the team, but the offense just isn’t there. It’ll be interesting to see the game plan, but with so many injuries across the board, the experienced talent just doesn’t match up enough to push FSU over the hump to get a win.

A prime-time matchup on the road to knock off a top-10 team could get the Seminoles going, but I think that if they fall behind by more than two scores, then it will just be a head-hunting competition by Notre Dame on FSU’s two young quarterbacks. The blame doesn’t solely fall on them. However, there has been a widespread disconnect between players thought to have been capable of remaining atop of the ACC and guys who are just too young to compete with the speed of the game at this point.

Notre Dame is favored by 26 with an over/under of 42.5, which doesn’t add up. FSU has not scored over 21 points in one game this season, and the Irish will likely drop at least 35. The defense on the ‘Nole side of the ball has given them chances to win games, but there has just been nothing working on the offensive side of the ball.

It is no secret that Notre Dame will win this one, but the question is: by how much?

2024 Season Prediction Record: 5-4

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Fighting Irish 41, Seminoles 14

The Florida State Seminoles are 1-8 and heading into a road contest against No. 10-ranked Notre Dame. What could go wrong? Everything — like it has all season. The Seminoles will get blown out and their disastrous season will only get worse as they inch one game closer to double-digit losses.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 6-3

Fighting Irish 42, Seminoles 7

This game could go one of two ways, the first being the Seminoles change things up this week, playing aggressively on offense and taking deep shots downfield. At this point in the season, Florida State has absolutely nothing to lose. This team is already going down in the history books as one of the worst teams in program history. Factor in the countless injuries this team has faced, and one can only imagine what morale is like in the locker room. I’ve been hoping a spark would ignite in this team, and it hasn’t yet, but if it’s going to, this would be the week to do it. I can’t imagine Notre Dame is expecting greatness to come in on Saturday, and that’s exactly why it’s the perfect opportunity to come in and show what the future of the program is going to look like. After all, Notre Dame’s only loss of the season came at the hands of Northern Illinois in week 2. Since then, they’ve done some serious damage to fairly decent teams.

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This leads me to the second scenario, the more realistic of the two. Notre Dame blows the Seminoles out of the water. This is a team that has shown no mercy to some solid teams this season, and as much as it pains me to say it, FSU just isn’t even a solid team this year. This is a bad football team playing one of the ten best in the country, and I would expect the result to look like a top 10 team playing one of the nation’s worst.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 5-4

Fighting Irish 48, Seminoles 10

Moreover, Florida State has not been able to run the ball effectively against good or even mediocre run defenses (ND is top 50), and the Irish also have a top-4 pass defense to go alongside it. There aren’t many avenues where the ‘Noles have an advantage. Therefore, some unforced errors from Notre Dame coupled with some flukey special teams plays and perhaps even some favorable calls from the men in stripes might get FSU over the finish line.

This game will not be close. As I’ve stated in previous articles, there’s too much on the line for ND to slip up. They were upset by Northern Illinois earlier this year at home, and since then have put together some convincing performances. The Fighting Irish’s top two rushers average 6.3 yards a pop, and FSU simply cannot stop the run. And when they can’t stop the run, they lose by at least two scores. Every time the Seminoles have held their opponent under 200 yards rushing, they have kept the game within one score or won the contest outright.

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2024 Season Prediction Record: 5-4

Fighting Irish 42, Seminoles 16

CONSENSUS: Notre Dame (8-0)

READ MORE: Former FSU Standout Reacts To Being On Wrong End Of Saquon Barkey’s Jaw-Dropping Highlight

Stick with NoleGameday for more FREE coverage of Florida State Football throughout the 2024 Season

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•  Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles at No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

• How To Watch Florida State at Notre Dame: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, and Odds

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• Former FSU Football QB Will be in Attendance for Florida Game

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Bold Predictions for Notre Dame vs. Florida State Showdown

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Bold Predictions for Notre Dame vs. Florida State Showdown


Notre Dame looks to take another step towards the College Football Playoff on Saturday and welcomes a powerhouse program that has won three national championships since 1993 to town.

That team is Florida State and despite going 13-0 last regular season, this Florida State team isn’t competing for anything.

The Seminoles come in just 1-7 and only scored more than 16 points in a game once all season – that coming in Week 0 in Ireland.

So does Notre Dame keep it rolling against Florida State?

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Just how much will the Irish win by as they move to 8-1?

Here is what the Notre Dame on SI staff sees happening under the lights Saturday in South Bend.

Notre Dame vs. Florida State Predictions: Jeff Feyerer

The Notre Dame defense swallows up the Georgia Tech runner in 202

Oct 19, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets running back Jamal Haynes (11) is tackled by Notre Dame Fighting Irish linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa (27) and defensive lineman Donovan Hinish (41) and linebacker Drayk Bowen (34) in the third quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

31 years after the most important Notre Dame game of my lifetime when No. 2 Notre Dame defeated the top ranked Seminoles this game is decidedly not that. Mike Norvell’s team has gone from just missing out on the playoff last season to going 1-8 with seemingly no hope. They’re catching an Irish team a) coming off a bye b) playing their best football of the season and c) motivated by the latest playoff rankings and their clear path to a spot in the postseason.

Score prediction: Notre Dame 38, Florida State 10

Bold Prediction: I’m being conservative by my score estimate despite having the Irish covering.

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Notre Dame vs. Florida State Predictions: Nathan Erbach

Leonard Moore intercepts a pass against Navy for Notre Dam

Oct 26, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish cornerback Leonard Moore (15) intercepts a pass intended for Navy Midshipmen running back Eli Heidenreich (22) in front of linebacker Jack Kiser (24) during the second half at MetLife Stadium. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

I like Notre Dame to run up the score on Saturday night and win convincingly against a talented, yet bad Florida State football team. 20 points might be too much, but I think the Seminoles score a garbage touchdown once the Irish have the backups in. Overall, Florida State should have a difficult time scoring on Notre Dame’s defense and the Irish offense picks up where it has left off the last several weeks and the passing and running game continue to work well in unison. 

Game Prediction: Notre Dame 48, Florida State 20

Bold prediction: Leonard Moore picks off two passes Saturday night inside Notre Dame Stadium. 

Notre Dame vs. Florida State Predictions: Mason Plummer

Mitchell Evans hauls in a pass against Purdue in 2024

Purdue Boilermakers defensive back Antonio Stevens (11) defends the pass to Notre Dame Fighting Irish tight end Mitchell Evans (88) Saturday, Sept. 14, 2024, during the NCAA football game at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Notre Dame Fighting Irish won 66-7. / Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Florida State has given up on the season and Notre Dame handles business, the way Freeman has in night games in Notre Dame Stadium.

Score Prediction: Notre Dame 45, Florida State 10

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Bold Prediction: Mitchell Evans goes for 50+ and a touchdown and he continues to establish himself as one of the best TE in recent Notre Dame history.

Notre Dame vs. Florida State Predictions: John Kennedy

Riley Leonard throws a pass for Notre Dame against Georgia Tec

Oct 19, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) passes against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

With Notre Dame firmly positioned in playoff position entering November, 1-8 Florida State heads to South Bend for a game that isn’t going to look or feel anything like what most folks had figured it would prior to the season. Notre Dame’s top-five defense will eat alive the Seminoles’ 133/134-ranked scoring offense. The Irish offense will establish a strong ground game but will be eager to throw it around a bit as well, shaking off the rust from two weeks off and preparing for a playoff push. 

Game Prediction: Notre Dame 41, Florida State 6

Bold Prediction: The Notre Dame offense shows some new wrinkles as Mike Denbrock’s trust in Riley Leonard and the offensive line has grown.

Notre Dame vs. Florida State Predictions: Nick Shepkowski

Notre Dame celebrates a touchdown against Stanford in 202

Notre Dame running back Aneyas Williams (20) gets hoisted in the air after scoring a touchdown during a NCAA college football game between Notre Dame and Stanford at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In talking to some of those that know much more of the details of the Florida State program than myself this week it somehow sounds worse than the 1-7 record would indicate in Tallahassee. This is as bad of offense as there is in college football coming to South Bend on Saturday. Expect Notre Dame to have to work get things going offensively but for Florida State to not be able to sustain a drive all night.

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Game Prediction: Notre Dame 52, Florida State 0

Bold Prediction: Florida State has never lost a regular season game by 50 or more points.

Until Saturday.

Notre Dame updates depth chart for Florida State clash

College Football Playoff Projections Overhauled After Wild Week 10

Former Heisman Trophy Winner Gives Notre Dame Massive Praise

Notre Dame’s Next Opponent is Fresh Off Brutal Home Loss



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Notre Dame Football: Betting Lines Make Huge Move Ahead of Florida State Matchup

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Notre Dame Football: Betting Lines Make Huge Move Ahead of Florida State Matchup


It is no secret that Notre Dame is, and should be, a heavy favorite heading into Saturday night’s matchup against Florida State. The Seminoles are down tremendously bad this season, currently sporting a 1-8 record.

Just about everything that could go wrong for Florida State has so far, as it has seemingly been unable to recover from missing the College Football Playoff last season. Mike Norvell’s squad missed the four-team playoff last year by one spot, finishing fifth, then got trounced by Georgia in its bowl game, 63-3, and has not been the same since.

Florida State did lose a good amount of talent to the NFL this past offseason, but a program of its caliber should be able to reload and consistently compete at the highest level of college football.

Many expected the Seminoles to be great again this season as they ranked No.10 coming into the season, before inexplicably dropping its first game of the season to Georgia Tech. Maybe inexplicably isn’t the right word here, however, as the ‘Noles have proceeded to lose another seven games, and five straight.

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So, in short, while this team is lacking in belief and likely wanting the season to be over, there is a ton of talent left on it and it could be woken up in a night game that could eliminate Notre Dame from playoff contention if FSU were to somehow rise-up and take down the Irish on Saturday night.

However, Vegas does not see that happening in the slightest.

Notre Dame opened as a 24.5-point favorite on Sunday and a -4500 money line selection. Since, the odds have jumped to Notre Dame -25.5 and the Irish are now a -7000 money line favorite.

It goes without saying, Notre Dame is expected to beat down the Seminoles on Saturday night under the lights. I’m sure Irish fans will have preferred a more competitive game for Notre Dame’s one and only night game this season, but the vibe in Notre Dame Stadium should be electric.

Notre Dame updates depth chart for Florida State clash

College Football Playoff Projections Overhauled After Wild Week 10

Former Heisman Trophy Winner Gives Notre Dame Massive Praise

Notre Dame’s Next Opponent is Fresh Off Brutal Home Loss



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Florida beach town faces explosive fight over ethanol plant • Florida Phoenix

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Florida beach town faces explosive fight over ethanol plant • Florida Phoenix


Because I grew up in Florida’s white-sand Panhandle, I consider myself a connoisseur of our most beautiful beaches. Trust me when I tell you the ones in Fernandina Beach are quite lovely — 13 miles of pristine quartz sand at the tip of Amelia Island, fronting the Atlantic Ocean close to the Georgia border.

A couple of years ago, “Southern Living” named Fernandina one of the South’s Prettiest Towns, in part because of its 52-block historic district that includes Florida’s oldest bar, the Palace Saloon. Adding to the enjoyment of my visit there, Fernandina is the birthplace of Florida’s modern shrimping industry, and I love shrimp as much as Forrest Gump’s Army buddy Bubba.

So, imagine my surprise when I heard that the multinational corporation Rayonier wants to build a factory there. Not just any factory, either. It’s a bioethanol plant that would produce about 7.5 million gallons of the alternative fuel each year.

Not everyone in Fernandina Beach is thrilled about this.

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Julie Ferreira of Nassau Sierra Club via screengrab

“We’re not against ethanol,” Julie Ferreira of the Sierra Club’s Nassau County chapter told me this week. “We’re just against where they want to put it.”

Among other things, opponents are worried about the tendency of such plants to blow up. In just the past two years there have been ethanol plant explosions in Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Kentucky, Wisconsin, and South Dakota.

Six explosions in two years — that’s not exactly a reassuring safety record.

The city’s comprehensive plan for future growth specifically says no chemical or petroleum plants are allowed to be built in Fernandina Beach. The city’s own attorneys said that means Rayonier can’t legally build this plant in the city.

But Rayonier disagrees, contending that its plant would not use chemical processes and thus isn’t covered by the comp plan. Its efforts have been aided by its connections with some powerful folks. That includes the mayor, who coincidentally works for Rayonier.

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So far, the company has the upper hand in this fight — thanks in large part to our fine Florida Legislature, which recently changed the rules on challenging pollution permits.

Picture David versus Goliath, except David has to tie one hand behind his back, because of course the Legislature felt sorry for poor Goliath.

Just like beer

Rayonier built its first plant in Fernandina in 1937, so it kiiiiind of fits with the historic district.

That plant is a pulp mill, turning wood into paper products. It employs more than 300 people.

A year ago, the company proposed using a sugar byproduct of the pulp process to create ethanol, which is used not only as a fuel additive (more than 98% of gasoline in the U.S. contains some) but also as food coloring and a solvent. Rayonier proposed this because “there is growing demand for renewable alternatives to petroleum-based products,” company spokesman Mark Homans told me. “We’ve operated in Fernandina Beach for nearly 85 years. To stay competitive, we have to keep innovating.”

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“Fundamentally, the process … is the same fermentation process used to make beer,” the company’s attorneys contended in a legal motion. Somehow, though, breweries don’t blow up nearly as often.

Ethanol “is a cleaner, greener alternative to fossil-fuel based gasoline and will help sustain 300 good-paying local manufacturing jobs, be good for local property values, and support the economy in Fernandina Beach,” the company boasted on its website. It even promised that the ethanol plant would lower the amount of harmful air pollution now spewing from the pulp mill.

I’d contacted Rayonier officials to ask for their safety plans for this $50 million grenade — er, excuse me, plant. Homans told me the plant “will include a dedicated fire suppression system and continuous monitoring technology and will also have its own concrete containment area. … It will fully comply with all local, state, and federal regulations.” That last part sounds, as one notorious Florida grifter put it, like “a concept of a plan.”

In March, the Florida Department of Pitiful Shrugs — er, excuse me, “Environmental Protection” — issued a notice that it intended to approve the plant’s air pollution permit. That spurred 150 residents to crowd into what the local paper described as a “country-western themed auditorium” to figure out how to fight back. Yee-haw!

Mayor Bradley Bean from his campaign website

Not joining the fight: Fernandina Beach Mayor Bradley Bean. He’s the son of U.S. Rep. Aaron Bean, who is such a great friend of nature that the League of Conservation Voters gave him a lifetime score of 0%. Clearly, the apple didn’t fall far from the poisonwood tree.

LinkedIn shows the mayor is employed as a storeroom supervisor at the Rayonier pulp plant. He’s also a huge fan of his employer’s ethanol plans.

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“This is a huge, huge environmental win locally and globally,” Bean told the Nassau County Chamber of Commerce in August. “The environmental win locally is the significant reduction in emissions. … I think with that being said, it’s a no-brainer when it comes to what we currently have versus the final state.”

He added that the opponents were spreading ” a lot of misinformation out there about safety.” That comment particularly ticked off Tom Budd, president of No Ethanol Fernandina, who said any misinformation was coming from proponents of the plant.

“This product should not be produced on a barrier island, so close to residences, schools, churches, and our historic downtown,” Budd told the Fernandina Observer.

But soon Budd had to back down, thanks to Florida lawmakers.

A Looney Tunes plan

When I talked to Budd this week, he told me he was directly affected by Rayonier’s ethanol proposal.

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“I live in the shadow of the plant,” the onetime New Jersey tavern owner told me. “When I learned they wanted to add this to the plant, I was curious, so I started to learn about it.”

Tom Budd of No Ethanol Fernandina via screengrab

He not only attended a happy-talk town hall that Rayonier put on, he invited Rayonier officials to visit his home and explain it to him. The main question he asked was a variation on the one Sir Lawrence Olivier asks Dustin Hoffman in “Marathon Man”: “Is it safe?”

The more he heard, the less he liked what was in the works. That’s how he wound up as the head of the No Ethanol Fernandina coalition.

“It became obvious to me that this was a Looney Tunes plan,” he told me.

No Ethanol Fernandina’s first step: challenge the ethanol plant’s DEP pollution permit. Their attorney filed for a trial in front of a judge from the state Division of Administrative Hearings.

“This project did not meet … applicable statutes and regulations required for preconstruction review.,” the attorney, Ralf Brookes, wrote in the petition for the hearing.

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Budd had a professional chemist lined up to testify to the problems with the permit, and at no charge to the organization, either. The case was as good as they could make it — not to stop the plant, but to ensure it would be required to be as safe as possible, Budd explained.

The frequently finicky division agreed that Budd’s petition raised legitimate questions that deserved a fuller investigation. The hearing was set for Nov. 18-20, and in Fernandina Beach to boot.

The two sides took depositions from the witnesses and filed what attorneys call “interrogatories,” which is a $200 word meaning “questions.”

Rayonier refused to provide answers, claiming everything about its manufacturing process was proprietary and confidential. Budd and Brookes had to ask the judge to straighten that out.

But then Rayonier played its ace in the hole, one provided by the Legislature.

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The company’s stable of high-priced attorneys from Lewis, Longman and Walker notified Budd and Brookes that they would file a motion for sanctions to punish them for what they called a “frivolous” lawsuit.

That would mean Budd and Brookes would be on the hook for Rayonier’s legal fees, estimated at $300,000.

Brookes, a sole practitioner, said he couldn’t risk that. He withdrew from the case.

Budd’s own family members who are in the legal profession in other states told him the motion had no merit. But Budd said he couldn’t find anyone else in Florida who would take over the case.

“I don’t know how I could go forward without an attorney,” Budd told me. “So, I had to withdraw.”

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Now there will be no hearing on the permit and nothing to stop DEP from issuing a flawed version to let the project continue.

Balanced like the Leaning Tower

The law that allowed Rayonier’s corporate attorneys to make such an outrageous claim was the brainchild of state Sen. Danny Burgess, R-idiculous, who happens to be a corporate attorney himself in Pasco County.

Sen. Danny Burgess via X

You may recall that Burgess sponsored one of the worst environmental bills last year, one that would have gotten rid of local regulations for cleaner water and protection of wetlands. Thank heaven that one failed to pass.

This bill, however, did pass and Gov. Ron “I Saved Everyone from Stinky Weed Even Though It’s More Popular Than I Am” DeSantis signed it into law without a qualm.

It called for environmental groups and residents to be forced to pay the legal fees for companies and state agencies if they challenge state environmental permits and lose. Before this bill, losing a challenge only involved such a risk if the case was clearly frivolous.

“Whoever is sponsoring that bill — why don’t they just come out and admit they don’t want there to be environmental regulation in Florida?” one environmental attorney commented to Politico when it was first filed.

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Burgess called that hyperbole. He claimed it was “a balanced bill,” which is true only if you think the Leaning Tower of Pisa is balanced.

Burgess’ bill marked one more way our legislators have tilted the law in favor of their donors — major corporations like Rayonier, rapacious developers, phosphate miners, Big Sugar — and against anyone who dares to stand in their way. Their goal: Discourage dissent, which can slow down construction plans and cost money.

But Budd told me the Fernandina fight isn’t furnished.

Elections have consequences

The first step happened Tuesday, when Mayor Bean lost his bid for reelection to the city commission.

The no-brainer mayor was beaten by Joyce Tuten, a retired science teacher who volunteers for sea turtle patrol, shorebird nest protection, and horseshoe crab tagging. She’s made it clear that she’s not a Rayonier fan, as Bean has been.

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When she first heard about Rayonier’s ethanol plans, she told a Jacksonville TV station, her reaction was, “Whoa, wrong location.”

Bean wasn’t the only loser in the commission races, either.

“Every race was won by candidates who favor No Ethanol Fernandina,” Budd told me.

With no one challenging the DEP permit, the crucial decision now is the city building permit. But that permit doesn’t require a vote of the city commission, Budd said. Instead, the decision to issue it or not would fall to the city manager, who works for the city commission.

Sarah Campbell via Fernandina Beach social media

The just-hired city manager is a woman named Sarah Campbell. She’s married to Congressman Bean’s district director, which may have helped with her hiring.

Campbell replaced a guy named Dale Martin, who was fired last year on a 3-2 vote led by Bean. I’m told Martin was opposed to the ethanol plant because he’d worked in Savannah in 2008 when the Imperial Sugar plant there exploded.

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While the decision now seems to be up to Campbell (who starts the job later this month), there’s a catch. Any official who wants to approve the ethanol plant permit will first have to find a way around the comprehensive plan’s ban on chemical plants. It’s either that or amend the plan, Budd said. The latter would require a vote by the commission.

In short, he said, despite withdrawing his permit challenge, “I’m still in the fight.”

I wish Budd and his allies the best of luck. But I’m sure someone in Tallahassee is monitoring the situation and plotting how to tip the scales of justice juuuuust a little further in favor of those unpopular, occasionally exploding polluters. I’m as sure that’s happening as I am that there’s lots of sand at the beach.



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