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How Tropical Storm Arlene changed the weekend forecast for Florida

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How Tropical Storm Arlene changed the weekend forecast for Florida


JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Tropical Depression Arlene formed Friday afternoon in the Gulf of Mexico.

This development has changed the weekend forecast not just for Northeast Florida, but for the vast majority of the state.

But why the change?

Disorganized vs. Organized Systems

Meteorologists knew something was brewing in the Gulf of Mexico over the past several days.

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Many computer models indicated a complex of showers and storms was likely to develop.

But the development of a tropical storm was not forecasted.

This disorganized complex was expected to float across the Florida Peninsula this weekend, bringing clouds and bands of rain to much of the region.

But with Tropical Storm Arlene now on the board, the system is expected to slide south.

This key change has everything to do with organization and steering currents.

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The change in the forecast is based on the organization of Arlene.

Weaker, disorganized systems have a tendency to drift. This drifting was forecast by the computer models, which is why rain was expected across much of the state.

A tropical storm is more organized and consolidated. This organization allows the system to be steered more by mid and upper-level winds.

These winds will continue to push the tropical depression southward toward the western tip of Cuba.

With the system so far away, scattered showers are expected in South and Southwest Florida Friday and into the weekend.

The system will not have an impact on the weather in Northeast Florida, as rain chances will be based on a cold front approaching the region.

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Could it reorganize?

Some early forecast models indicated the complex could organize in the Atlantic early next week.

That is now very unlikely due to the intense shear that exists in the Florida Straits and the Atlantic.

Wind shear helps keep a lid on tropical activity, and with so much shear in place, the system will not reorganize.

One small change can have a big impact on any forecast. With a more organized complex now in the Gulf, the system will feel more of the effects of the steering currents, keeping the heavy rains well away from Florida.

Copyright 2023 by WJXT News4JAX – All rights reserved.

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Florida

Western Carolina visits Florida State following Stansberry’s 20-point game

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Western Carolina visits Florida State following Stansberry’s 20-point game


Associated Press

Western Carolina Catamounts (2-2) at Florida State Seminoles (6-1)

Tallahassee, Florida; Tuesday, 7 p.m. EST

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BOTTOM LINE: Western Carolina plays Florida State after Cord Stansberry scored 20 points in Western Carolina’s 82-69 loss to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

The Seminoles are 3-1 on their home court. Florida State is 5-1 when it wins the turnover battle and averages 12.4 turnovers per game.

Western Carolina finished 11-8 in SoCon action and 10-6 on the road a season ago. The Catamounts averaged 11.3 assists per game on 28.2 made field goals last season.

___

The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Florida Gators Put Nation on Notice with Ole Miss Win

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Florida Gators Put Nation on Notice with Ole Miss Win


It’s been a good couple weeks for the Florida Gators.

First, they take down No. 22 LSU, 27-16, with a bend but don’t break approach. Then, they follow that up by upsetting No. 9 Ole Miss, 24-17. With that latter win, heads really began to turn. It was one thing to put up fights against Tennessee and Georgia, but now, they’re beginning to take down these formidable opponents. 

The analysts are starting to talk them up. ESPN’s College Gameday analyst Kirk Herbstreit is ready to hand head coach Billy Napier the award for coach of the year. He made sure to include that he thinks quarterback DJ Lagway is going to be something special. 

“Can a guy with a team that will finish 7-5 win the coach of the year award? He should!!” Herbstreit said in a tweet. “Billy Napier and  [the Florida Gators, after being 4-5 and losing two straight,  have beaten LSU and Ole Miss. So impressive to see this fight from the Gators and their fans after having a tough year. And, oh yeah, DJ Lagway is the REAL DEAL!”

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Big Cat from Barstool Sports jumped on X (formerly Twitter) and said, “The Florida Gators may need a playoff berth.”

Now, that can be written off as two guys getting excited, but key writers are noticing too. Florida received votes in the latest AP Poll. 

Brian Brian Fonesca of the NJ.com/Star-Ledger and Ian Kress of WLNS-TV (a CBS affiliate in Lansing, Michigan) ranked them No. 25. David Paschall of the Chattanooga Times Free Press ranked them No. 24. It’s only four points, but they’re the only five-loss team to receive votes. 

Unofficially, they’re ranked No. 33 in the country. If they had beaten Tennessee or Georgia to have that slightly better 7-4 record, could very well be in the top 25 right now. It’s hard to vote for a 6-5 team, that’s totally fair, but the willingness to do so by a handful of writers is a good starting point. If they win out, including a quality bowl win, to finish 8-5, finishing ranked is realistic.

Those who are signing on now are seeing what could be on the horizon in 2025. This is how they are playing now. This team might have won eight or nine games had this been yearlong. Wait until they play the portal some more this summer to bring in more talent, Napier gets that offensive coordinator and Lagway comes in with nearly a year of play under his belt. 

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The Florida Gators have put the country on notice. They gave Napier the time to rebuild after Dan Mullen’s collapse, and that time is beginning to pay off. 



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Florida shows it can finish with another second-half closeout and a makeshift dunk contest

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Florida shows it can finish with another second-half closeout and a makeshift dunk contest


GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Florida players eager to celebrate their latest victory, the one that made them bowl eligible for the first time in two years, found a suitable prop on the sideline.

Ole Miss left behind its basketball hoop, which the Rebels use to salute big plays during games.

The Gators set it up, grabbed some footballs and held their own dunk contest near the end zone. It provided an apt stage — perfect for showcasing finishing moves — after they closed out another ranked opponent.

Florida (6-5, 4-4 Southeastern Conference) dominated the second half for the second consecutive week and got to party in the Swamp following a 24-17 victory over then-ninth-ranked Mississippi on Saturday.

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Not only did the Gators knock the Rebels (8-3, 4-3) out of the College Football Playoff picture, they won their fourth consecutive home game and raised expectations for coach Billy Napier’s fourth season in Gainesville.

And the manner in which they accomplished it mattered. Napier has been preaching about “finishing,” something that had mostly eluded the Gators in the past two years.

Florida lost four games in 2023 after leading in the second half, including three — against Arkansas, Missouri and Florida State — in the fourth quarter.

Florida quarterback DJ Lagway (2) and teammates Trikweze Bridges (7), Aidan Mizell (11) and Jadan Baugh (13) celebrate their 24-17 win against Mississippi in an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024, in Gainesville, Fla. Credit: AP/Phelan M. Ebenhack

And no one following the program has forgotten how close the Gators were to upsetting Tennessee and Georgia earlier this season, losing 23-17 to the Volunteers in overtime and fading against the Bulldogs after being tied at 20 with five minutes to play.

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Napier hoped all those gut punches would ultimately lead to something better, and they finally did — with late-game knockouts against LSU and Mississippi.

“Eventually you get sick of that,” receiver Chimere Dike said. “To be able to get these last two wins is huge for our team and our program. I’m proud of the resilience the guys showed, the way that we performed.”

Florida held Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin’s high-scoring offense to three points in the second half. The Rebels turned the ball over twice — interceptions by Bryce Thornton on the final two drives — punted twice and got stuffed on another fourth-down run.

Florida defensive back Bryce Thornton (18) intercepts a pass on...

Florida defensive back Bryce Thornton (18) intercepts a pass on Mississippi’s final drive during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024, in Gainesville, Fla. Credit: AP/Phelan M. Ebenhack

“I thought we were better on both sides up front, and short-yardage defense is a big component,” Napier said. “Those are identity plays. I think we had guys step up and make plays.”

Added defensive tackle Cam Jackson said: “Everybody just pinned their ears back. That was great.”

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It was reminiscent of the previous week against then-No. 21 LSU. Florida held the Tigers to six points in the second half and forced a fumble, a punt and a turnover on downs in a 27-16 victory.

“We just all came together and wanted to change how Florida was looked at,” Thornton said. “That’s the biggest thing with us, just trying to show everybody that we can do it.”

The Gators ended the afternoon showing off their basketball moves.

Cornerback Trikweze Bridges, receiver Marcus Burke, defensive end Justus Boone, tight end Tony Livingston and linebacker Shemar James delivered monster dunks. Aidan Mizell passed a football between his leg in midair before his slam, and fellow receiver Elijhah Badger bounced it off the backboard before rousing teammates and fans with his finish.

“Belief is the most powerful thing in the world,” Napier said. “At some point there, midseason, we figured (that) out and we started to believe. Look, we can play with any team in the country.”

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