Florida’s Panhandle and Big Bend area could see a landfalling hurricane on Thursday, potential a Category 2 or stronger.

Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center issued its first forecast track for a disturbance hovering west of Jamaica, now classified as potential tropical cyclone 9. The track takes it between Mexico and Cuba, into the Gulf of Mexico and into Florida’s west coast in three days.

Mexico issued a tropical storm warning for the Yucatan Peninsula, and Cuba issued one for the Isle of Youth and Artemisia, as well as a hurricane watch for Pinar del Rio. Both spots could see up to four feet of storm surge and several inches of rain from the storm.

Because the system has not formed yet and lacks a defined center, forecasters warned that the forecast was more uncertain than usual. They expect Helene to develop in the next day or two and then rapidly strengthen as it heads toward Florida.

“Given the large size of the tropical-storm-force wind field and fast forward speed that is forecast, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system,” the 11 a.m. discussion read.

South Florida could see rain, potentially heavy, beginning as soon as Wednesday and lasting into the weekend.

Helene’s path forward is lined with some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic basin, which could fuel its growth into a strong hurricane. The first forecast called for Helen to top out with 110 mph sustained winds right before landfall, a strong Category 2 verging on Category 3.

The waters in the northeast Gulf are about 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average, posted Ben Noll, a meteorologist with New Zealand’s National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, on Twitter.

“It’s concerning from a potential intensity and moisture availability perspective!” he wrote.