Florida
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Florida's special congressional primaries
WASHINGTON (AP) — Control of the U.S. House isn’t on the line in Tuesday’s special congressional primaries in Florida, but Republicans are still eager to find replacements for former GOP Reps. Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz to add some breathing room to their slender majority in the chamber.
President Donald Trump looms large in the race, in both Tuesday’s primary and the special general election on April 1. He’s endorsed candidates in both GOP primaries and easily carried both districts in the November election.
Trump has backed state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis among a crowded 10-person field in Gaetz’s former 1st Congressional District. In Waltz’s 6th Congressional District, he endorsed state Rep. Randy Fine over two other candidates. Fine represents a Brevard County-based state Senate district located outside the Palm Coast-area seat he hopes to fill.
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Gun control activist Gay Valimont is unopposed for the Democratic nomination in the 1st District. She challenged Gaetz for the seat in November, receiving 34% of the vote. Democrats George Selmont and Josh Weil compete for the nomination in the 6th District. Selmont is an attorney and filmmaker who ran for a neighboring congressional seat in 2018. He received 32% of the vote against GOP Rep. John Rutherford. Weil is a public school educator in Osceola County.
The 1st Congressional District borders Alabama on the Gulf Coast in the westernmost part of the Florida panhandle. It is home to both Naval Air Station Pensacola and Eglin Air Force Base. The district is among the most reliably Republican areas of the state. The four counties that make up the 1st District have voted for Republican presidential candidates almost continually for the past 60 years.
On the other side of the state, the 6th Congressional District sits on the Atlantic Coast and includes Daytona Beach. Republican presidential candidates have carried all six counties in the district for the last four presidential elections. The Republican winning streak in some of the counties stretches back for decades before that. Lake County, for instance, hasn’t supported a Democrat for president since Franklin Roosevelt in 1944.
Trump’s support should carry considerable weight in both districts. His weakest performance in either district in last year’s general election was in Escambia County in the 1st District, where he received 59% of the vote.
In the November general election, Gaetz and Waltz won reelection with 66% and 67% of the vote, respectively. Gaetz resigned after Trump nominated him to be attorney general, but he later withdrew from consideration following ongoing scrutiny over a federal sex trafficking investigation and a House Ethics Committee investigation. Waltz resigned Monday to become White House national security adviser.
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Machine recounts in Florida are automatic if the vote margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less. If the machine recount results in a vote margin of 0.25% of the total vote or less, a manual recount of overvotes and undervotes is required. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:
Special primary day
The special primaries in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 7 p.m. ET in the 6th District and 8 p.m. ET in the 1st District.
What’s on the ballot?
The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in the Republican primary in the 1st Congressional District and the Democratic and Republican primaries in the 6th Congressional District. A Democratic primary will not be held in the 1st District as there is only one candidate.
Who gets to vote?
Florida does not allow voters registered with one political party to vote in another party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either primary.
What do turnout and advance vote look like?
As of October 2024, Florida’s 1st Congressional District had about 301,000 active registered Republicans and about 117,000 active registered Democrats. The 6th District had about 262,000 active registered Republicans and about 138,000 active registered Democrats.
Turnout in the August Republican congressional primaries was about 34% of registered Republicans in the 1st District and about 31% in the 6th District. Democrats did not have competitive primaries in those districts.
As of Thursday morning, more than 11,000 ballots had been cast in the 1st District Republican primary, nearly 15,000 in the 6th District Republican primary and nearly 9,000 in the 6th District Democratic primary.
How long does vote-counting usually take?
In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results in the 1st Congressional District at 8:01 p.m. ET, or one minute after polls closed. The election night tabulation in the 1st District ended at 1:33 a.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted. In the 6th Congressional District, the first batch of votes was reported at 7 p.m. ET, just as polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 11:48 p.m. ET, with about 99% of the vote counted.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there will be 63 days until the special general elections in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts.
Florida
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Analysts and politicians point to the combination of strong candidates, low turnout special elections, rising gas prices compounding existing affordability issues and the ongoing conflict in Iran, which helped offset the registration and financial advantages of Republicans.
Also, historically, an unpopular president heading towards the midterm elections is always tricky for the party in power.
These factors may justify some optimism for the minority party in the state heading into the November election cycle, which could see rematches from Tuesday’s contests.
University of Central Florida political science professor Aubrey Jewett said at the campaign level Florida Democrats did a good job getting solid candidates who didn’t make mistakes and stuck to the message of affordability.
Also, there is the timing, as historically the sitting president’s party more often loses seats in midterm elections at the congressional and state legislative levels. Jewett added that unpopular presidents lose even more seats, noting that since the 2024 presidential election, Democrats have flipped more than two dozen seats in Republican or battleground states.
“President Trump’s unpopularity cast a long, dark shadow over these Republican candidates in these races,” Jewett said. “And so, even if you had decent candidates, it was just too much of an uphill battle because of President Trump’s unpopularity.”
One of those Democrats who won did so in a district that includes Trump’s Mar-a-lago estate
Democrat Emily Gregory of Jupiter led by 2.38 percentage points with 33,429 ballots cast in the House District 87 contest along the east coast of Palm Beach County. The district includes the home of President Donald Trump.
Gregory is a Treasure Coast native, a military spouse and mother of three with a master’s degree in public health from Columbia University who operates a small fitness business.
Tampa Democrat Brian Nathan, a U.S. Navy veteran and organizer with the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, was up 0.51 percentage points in the state Senate District 14 contest in Hillsborough County, where 80,016 votes were cast.
The results remain unofficial.
Republican Hilary Holley easily won the third legislative special election, House District 51 in Polk County, by more than 8 percentage points.
In the Tampa State Senate race, Jewett said there was evidence that Republicans seemed to be doing well in early voting, noting GOP candidate Josie Tomkow, a former House member, had good name recognition and funding.
“But it appears that the Democrats that turn out were strongly unified and (no party affiliation voters) must have gone strongly Democratic as well — and it seems likely that at least some Republicans voted Democratic,” Jewett said.
House Speaker-designate Sam Garrison, R-Fleming Island, who led GOP efforts for the House special elections, issued a statement Tuesday night that Republican Jon Maples ran an “extremely strong campaign” for the Palm Beach County seat, but faced “low Republican turnout due to awkward special election timing,” and also questioned “despicable, dark-money” attacks against the candidate.
Garrison added, “We will learn from today’s results and see you in November.”
Florida Republican and Democratic party chairs react to the election’s results
Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power said the party is “proud” of its special election candidates and will continue to “engage, mobilize and lead.”
“Republicans are leading on the issues that matter the most to Floridians — public safety, economic growth, meaningful property tax reform, expanded school choice, and strong environmental stewardship,” Power said in a statement. “Our record isn’t just strong, it is unmatched. With a Republican voter registration advantage of nearly 1.5 million, we are well-positioned and fully energized as we head toward November.”
Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried hopes the result makes Republican lawmakers pause as they approach Gov. Ron DeSantis’ call for a special session to redraw congressional district lines the week of April 20.
“Voters are tired of one-party rule and attempts to steal their votes,” Fried said in a conference call Wednesday with reporters. “They are tired of the skyrocketing costs and the chaos in the news this year.”
Fried also said the state party, which still faces a need to cut into the Republican supermajorities in the Legislature in the fall election, has been on the phones with national Democratic groups that have disengaged from Florida politics the past couple of cycles.
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