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Analysis | Arizona and Florida could send a big message on abortion rights

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Analysis | Arizona and Florida could send a big message on abortion rights


The abortion rights position has won on the ballot in 7 out of 7 states since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in mid-2022 — even in red-leaning ones such as Kansas, Kentucky, Montana and Ohio.

And new polling suggests that in 2024, abortion rights measures could do even better than they did in those first seven states, as voters in states with severe GOP led-abortion bans weigh in.

The polling, from CBS News and YouGov, shows striking margins in Arizona and Florida for enshrining abortion rights into those states’ constitutions. That position leads 65 percent to 21 percent in Arizona and 60 percent to 20 percent in Florida. Previous polling in Florida also showed voters favoring the abortion rights amendment by wide margins — by 21 points in one poll and by 30 points in another.

Florida’s measure will be on the ballot; Arizona’s is still a work in progress, but organizers say they have more than enough signatures to get it there. Other states will feature such measures, but Arizona and Florida are the big ones.

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The newest polling shows not only that voters overwhelmingly favor the amendments, but even Republicans lean in favor of them — 43-38 in Arizona and 43-34 in Florida.

That 60 percent overall number in Florida is notable because that’s the threshold for passage in the state — a higher bar than the one for most states.

It’s also notable because it suggests the potential for an even more resounding affirmation of abortion rights.

While abortion rights positions have won plenty of votes from Republican-leaning voters, they have done so to varying degrees. A good way to look at this is how they have performed relative to the 2020 presidential vote.

The best relative performance for an abortion rights amendment thus far? The most recent one. In Ohio last year, it over-performed Biden’s 2020 vote share by 11.6 points. Biden got 45 percent in 2020, but the abortion rights amendment got 57 percent.

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The average overperformance across the four states: eight points.

The new Arizona and Florida polls already show support for the amendments outpacing Biden’s 2020 share in those states by 16 points and 12 points, respectively — even with a fair number of undecided voters.

There have been states where the abortion rights position over-performed Biden by more than it did in the four states above: Kansas, Kentucky and Montana. But importantly, those states weren’t voting directly on enshrining abortion rights.

Montana’s measure was narrowly about infants born after failed abortions. Kansas’s and Kentucky’s measures asked voters to affirmatively state that the state constitution didn’t protect abortion rights. In those last two states, the measures over-performed Biden by 17 and 16 points, respectively — the biggest overperformances to date.

And that could be instructive.

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These were situations in which voters were effectively being asked not to add a right, but to foreclose one.

Indeed, what could set Arizona and Florida apart from the four states that have previously voted to enshrine abortion rights is how much those rights have been curtailed in those states.

The Florida Supreme Court last month greenlit the state’s six-week abortion ban, which even former president Donald Trump has sought to distance himself from. Then the Arizona Supreme Court last month revived a harsh 1864 law that banned nearly all abortions — even in the cases of rape and incest — and made providing one punishable by two to five years in prison. (This set off a panic in GOP circles which eventually led to the law’s repeal. A 15-week ban remains in place.)

This has set up a situation in which voters could effectively view the abortion rights amendments as referendums on the harsh GOP-backed laws and an opportunity to register their discontent. The same YouGov poll, for instance, shows 72 percent of Arizona voters approve of overturning the 1864 law.

Or, at the very least, the stakes of allowing their representatives to restrict abortion rights could be more real to them than to voters in California, Michigan, Vermont and Ohio, where similar laws weren’t in play.

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It’s that dynamic that makes these potentially resounding votes in Florida and Arizona particularly important for the future of abortion rights in America.



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Florida just wasted a silver-platter path to Super Regionals and beyond

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Florida just wasted a silver-platter path to Super Regionals and beyond


Heading into Sunday afternoon, everything was set up for Florida on a silver platter to not only advance out of Regionals, but to also waltz straight to Omaha. The Gators had their pitching staff in good shape, the bats were hot, and it looked like all the early-season woes would become a footnote in history.

Fast forward a little over 24 hours, and Florida’s season is done after a collapse by its pitching staff, combined with a couple of questionable decisions by Kevin O’Sullivan, along with Florida hitters who just couldn’t solve Troy on Monday night.

Florida loses to Troy and has its season end

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O’Sullivan opted to start Cooper Walls, who began the year as the Sunday starter but quickly lost that job and was relegated to jumping back and forth between starting in the midweek and coming out of the bullpen.

It didn’t go well for Walls as he was immediately tagged for two runs in the first inning and pulled for Caden McDonald in the second.

But McDonald settled things down and gave Florida more than a fair shot to take control of the game. And while the Gators had some decent swings here and there, it was clear that they couldn’t catch up to the fastball with any consistency.

Mind you, it was a fastball from Troy that was hovering around 90 MPH, not some 97 MPH flamethrower or frankly someone throwing random junk Florida couldn’t figure out. And the problem for Florida is that even when it did something right, it combined it with something wrong. Kyle Jones hit a RBI single to pull things to 2-1, but got thrown out at second base in the process.

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Then came the decision from O’Sullivan in the sixth inning that ultimately sent the game south. McDonald was cruising and was nearing 50 pitches for his outing. Given he had also thrown 26 pitches against Rider on Friday, one could argue O’Sullivan was trying to protect his arm.

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So out came Russell Sandefer, who was the starter against Rider. He promptly walked three straight batters.

And in the decision that ultimately swung the game, O’Sullivan went with Ernesto Lugo-Canchola out of the bullpen with bases loaded and no outs. This was after Lugo-Canchola gave up two runs last night against Troy. Five runs later, three of which were charged to Sandefer, it was 7-1, and that was that.

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Wasted opportunity for Florida

It’s the first time in program history that Florida started a Regional 2-0 and didn’t make it out to Super Regionals. And what ultimately ended Florida’s season was the inability of anyone on Florida’s staff not named McDonald or Jackson Barberi to get through their outing clean this weekend.

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Liam Peterson was shelled on Sunday.

Walls and Lugo-Canchola were hand-picked from the transfer portal ahead of this season and were shelled on Monday night.

The reality is that O’Sullivan pushed all the wrong buttons on Monday. He went to Sandefer hoping to catch lightning in a bottle, and it didn’t work. He went to Lugo-Canchola even after he got tagged last night, while Joshua Whritenour was “saved” for later. In addition, guys like Ricky Reeth and Luke McNeillie were sitting right there after not pitching on Sunday.

And again, whatever approach Florida’s hitters had on Monday was also an issue, as they couldn’t catch up to a 90 MPH fastball. For good measure, all the defensive woes that plagued Florida to start the season also came flooding back.

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Florida ends its season 41-21.

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Man in Florida jailed after reported attempted kidnapping at church

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Man in Florida jailed after reported attempted kidnapping at church


A 64-year-old man accused of trying to kidnap a 74-year-old woman with whom he’d had a romantic relationship was arrested May 31, according to Port St. Lucie Police on June 1.

Jose Tsu Zamora was jailed on charges of attempted kidnapping while armed with a firearm; battery on a person 65 years of age or older; possession of a firearm by a convicted felon; aggravated stalking (violation of injunction); and aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, police stated.

Zamora, a resident of North Miami, was apprehended May 31 by police and U.S. Marshals in Hialeah.

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The case began about 10:49 a.m. May 31 as police investigated an incident at First United Methodist Church on Southwest Prima Vista Boulevard.

“The investigation revealed that Zamora, who previously had a romantic relationship with the victim, approached her in the church parking lot despite an active injunction prohibiting contact,” police stated. “According to the investigation, Zamora … attempted to force the victim into a vehicle against her will while armed with a handgun.”

Two good Samaritans confronted Zamora, telling him to let go of the woman, police stated.

During the confrontation, police stated, Zamora is accused of “displaying a firearm before retreating to his vehicle and fleeing the scene.”

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Video surveillance depicted Zamora pursuing the 74-year-old woman in the parking lot, restraining her and trying to “force her toward a vehicle.”

Zamora ultimately was taken into custody in Hialeah.

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He is being held in the St. Lucie County Jail on $745,000 bond, according to police.

Zamora was arrested in March in St. Lucie County on charges of possession of a firearm or ammunition by convicted felon and tampering with evidence, though the latter charge ultimately was dropped, according to St. Lucie County Clerk’s records. The case is continuing through the court system, records show.

Will Greenlee is a breaking news reporter for TCPalm. Follow Will on X @OffTheBeatTweet or reach him by phone at 772-267-7926. E-mail him at will.greenlee@tcpalm.com.





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Florida tax proposal seeks to eliminate homestead property taxes by 2028

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Florida tax proposal seeks to eliminate homestead property taxes by 2028


Tampa homeowners could soon see lower property tax bills under a new proposal that aims to significantly increase the state’s homestead exemption.

Proposed homestead exemption expansion

What we know:

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A new state proposal aims to significantly lower property tax bills for homeowners by expanding the current homestead exemption. Tampa homeowner Jeff James noted that current property tax rates have become unaffordable for seniors living on fixed incomes. James explained that a 50% reduction in property taxes would allow local families to redirect their money toward essential costs like groceries or childcare. “It will help the people that have, you know, three or $400,000 houses, property tax-wise, the older people, retired people that sometimes can’t even afford just a property tax payment,” James said.

The Historic Capitol building stands in Tallahassee, where state lawmakers and local leaders are deeply divided over the long-term impact of expanding the homestead exemption.

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Timeline for tax changes

By the numbers:

According to the proposal, the state homestead exemption would increase from the current $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027. The exemption would then jump to $250,000 in 2028. Gov. Ron DeSantis said the primary purpose of the change is to make homestead property tax-free, calling the potential shift historic. 

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Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks at a press conference advocating for constitutional tax relief, stating that the new homestead proposal aims to make primary residences completely property tax-free.

The other side:

Some residents spoke to FOX 13 off camera, expressing fear that the massive tax cuts could eliminate necessary community services. Property taxes are a primary funding source for local schools, public safety, infrastructure and emergency operations. Tampa Mayor Jane Castor urged voters to carefully consider the services they might lose before casting their ballots. “They see ‘tax cut,’ of course; everybody wants that,” Mayor Castor said. “But think about the services that you’re going to lose if you do vote.”

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Tampa Mayor Jane Castor addresses reporters at a local infrastructure site, warning voters that a massive reduction in property tax revenues could trigger steep cuts to vital city services.

Budget adjustments and spending

What they’re saying:

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“There are a lot of people here and maybe not in this little area, but right outside of this area that need that help,” James said. He suggested that local governments could protect emergency services by cutting superfluous spending instead of cutting public safety. “Move money around the right way and not make sure it doesn’t reduce police, fire department, everything else,” James said.

Future ballot measures

What we don’t know:

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Officials have not yet detailed how local municipalities will balance their budgets if the tax revenues disappear. Because the changes require a special amendment to the state constitution, it remains unknown whether voters will approve the measure when it hits the ballot this November. 

The Source: Information in this story comes from interviews done by FOX 13’s Danielle Zulkosky, a press conference with Gov. Ron DeSantis and a Fox 13 interview with Tampa Mayor Jane Castor.

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