AUSTIN, Texas – How prepared is the Texas power grid for a winter weather event like the deadly ice storm we saw back in 2021?

Those questions are resurfacing after a prediction from ERCOT’s meteorologist that we could see similar weather conditions this upcoming winter. 

FOX 7 Austin’s John Krinjak spoke one-on-one with local energy expert Doug Lewin, author of the Texas Energy and Power newsletter, to get some answers. 

JOHN KRINJAK: So we heard from ERCOT’s chief meteorologist this week who kind of warned of weather trends similar to the weather trends we saw back in 2021. Kind of the ingredients that support something like that devastating winter storm. What are your thoughts? What’s your reaction to that prediction?

DOUG LEWIN: Yeah. So obviously, it’s, you know, little, little scary, right? Yeah. Start with the obvious. You know, that that kind of sustained deep freeze obviously wreaks havoc. And as we saw in 2021, I do think that if we had the exact same weather system, we would be better off than we were in 2021. Two main reasons for that is the PUC and ERCOT have been enforcing a winterization standard for power plants. That seems to be working pretty well. We have data on this. Also, we have a whole lot more solar in storage.

JOHN KRINJAK: Where do you think we are still vulnerable? When you look at that big picture of ‘we’re more reliable now than we were, but maybe not all the way there’.

DOUG LEWIN: Yeah. The vulnerabilities are really on the gas supply system. Right. I do think the state has made progress on power plants. But if you can’t get gas to those power plants, they could be winterized to the nines. You know, winterized is as good as anybody’s ever winterized a power plant. It’s only as good as the fuel you can get to it. Right. So the gas and gas is still up for all the wind and solar development we’ve had. For all the talk, nuclear and geothermal and all that. Gas is the dominant source of power on our grid and we rely on it throughout the year and in the wintertime particularly. So having a winterized gas supply system is really important. We don’t have it right now. The other big vulnerability is on demand and energy efficiency. We still would have, you know, two problems during year, not enough supply to much demand. We really have not in the state address energy efficiency. So that excessively high demand we saw during winter storm Uri would would be there again, unfortunately.

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JOHN KRINJAK: So, you know, given the gains that we’ve made and the vulnerabilities that we still have, what do you think the picture looks like if we have something similar to Uri again? Do we see outages? Do we see widespread outages? What what is that? What could that look like?

DOUG LEWIN: Yeah, I think there would be outages. I just don’t think that they would be so so during, you know, winter storm Uri, obviously a defining feature of it was people that were outraged were out for days. Right. So these outages are often described as rolling outages. They weren’t rolling during winter storm Uri. Right. A rolling outage would be you lose power for 15 minutes, 30 minutes maybe on the upper end, 1 or 2 hours, and then the power comes back on. And I think that if we had one again, what we would see is the actual ability to rotate outages again, partially because we have so much solar. So yeah, I don’t think we would see a situation where 10 million Texans are without power for days at a time. It might be a few hundred thousand or a few million Texans and it might be a few hours at a time instead of a few days.

JOHN KRINJAK: What do you think Texans should be thinking about, you know, given this kind of weather scenario, what should people be doing to prepare?

DOUG LEWIN: You know, I would say the main things are just to make sure that you have, you know, the supplies that you need, you know, things like firewood and water and, you know, food that can be prepared without electricity, making sure if you have an elderly neighbor, you know that they have a plan.

JOHN KRINJAK: Doug Lewin, we always appreciate your perspective. Thanks so much for making time for us.

DOUG LEWIN: Hey, thank you, John.