The Milwaukee Brewers (57-46) and Atlanta Braves (64-36) play the opener of a 3-game set at Truist Park Friday. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 2-1
The Brewers are coming off a series win against the Cincinnati Reds and are 6-4 over the last 10. They have opened up a 1 1/2-game lead in the NL Central. These teams met last weekend with Atlanta taking 2 of 3. The Brew Crew are 9-3 against the NL East.
The Braves are slumping at just 3-7 over the last 10 games with 2 of those wins against Milwaukee. They’re still 20-10 over the last 30 games and have pummeled the NL Central at 10-2. The bats have cooled a bit as we enter the dog days of summer. Atlanta has averaged 2.75 runs per game over the last 4 games.
Brewers at Braves projected starters
RHP Adrian Houser vs. RHP Yonny Chirinos
Houser (3-2, 3.86 ERA) makes his 12th start and 14th appearance. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 63 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 10 K in 4-3 win over Braves
- 4 career starts vs. Braves: 0-3, 3.86 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 22 K in 21 IP
Chirinos (4-4, 4.02 ERA) makes his 5th start and 16th appearance. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 4.5 K/9 in 62 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 3 K vs. Kansas City Royals June 24
- Has never faced Brewers
- Mixes in sinker, slider and split-finger; the slider has been hammered to a .345 OBA this season, but the opposition hits just .120 against the splitter
Brewers at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Braves -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Brewers at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 5, Braves 4
Moneyline
Chirinos is making his team debut as he last pitched July 16 for the Tampa Bay Rays before the Braves picked him up off waivers. He had a 6.86 ERA in his last 5 appearances for the Rays and may see 4 innings in this game if he’s able to stay away from trouble. That seems unlikely on a humid Atlanta summer night. I’ll take a chance on BREWERS +135 because this matchup is not that uneven.
Run line/Against the spread
The Braves are just 23-28 on the RL at home, and the Brewers are 27-23 on the road. Both teams have solid pens, and Milwaukee is at a good price in case they aren’t able to cash the ML.
I’ll take BREWERS +1.5 (-135).
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Over/Under
Only 1 of the 3 games between the teams last weekend touched this number. The Brewers are just 1-9 O/U over the last 10 games. Atlanta is 4-6. The Over is 5-5 in the last 10 matchups between the teams. There are a couple of iffy starters going, but based on how the Braves have struggled offensively, and the Brewers’ futility O/U, I’ll take UNDER 10 (-105).
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