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Kentucky Derby prep guide for Florida Derby & Arkansas Derby

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Kentucky Derby prep guide for Florida Derby & Arkansas Derby


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Illustration by Candice Curtis / Eclipse Sportswire / Coady Media

The road to Kentucky Derby 2025 draws even closer to Churchill Downs Saturday with two of the most productive preps for finding Derby winners: the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby. These million-dollar races have combined to produce 31 Kentucky Derby winners since 1953.

After these races, the Kentucky Derby starting gate will be more than half full according to math and history. 

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The first of these premiere preps is the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park. Ten 3-year-old colts have been entered for the chance at 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points and the $1 million purse. Post time for the Florida Derby is scheduled for 6:42 p.m. EDT.

The 8-5 morning line favorite is Sovereignty, the Fountain of Youth (G2) winner trained by Bill Mott. The Into Mischief colt unveiled a powerful closing move in his juvenile season that he proved still has a dangerous kick in his first start as a 3-year-old. Jockey Manny Franco replaces his regular rider, Junior Alvarado, after he suffered a shoulder injury last week. 

Bob Baffert ships Madaket Road to Gulfstream for a rare Florida appearance on the Derby trail. Madaket Road was last seen finishing behind Coal Battle in the Rebel (G2) and opts for this spot instead of the Arkansas Derby for the son of Quality Road. Original rider Tyler Gaffalione also suffered an injury this week, so Mike Smith will also ship in to take the last-minute ride. 

Brad Cox sends Holy Bull (G2) runner-up Tappan Street back into the fray after skipping the Fountain of Youth. He got a wide trip in the Holy Bull, which was only his second lifetime start, but closed well enough to show his talent. 

Disruptor steps up into stakes company and stretches out in distance in his third career start for Todd Pletcher. The $1.5 million Gun Runner colt ran away from the field in his last start at Gulfstream, a seven-furlong maiden special weight.

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Get to know all of the Florida Derby contenders with Matt Shifman, who also provides odds and tips. 

TV coverage of both the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby will be on CNBC and streaming on Peacock beginning at 6 p.m. EDT. FS2 will broadcast the Arkansas Derby and Oaklawn undercard stakes as part of America’s Day at the Races beginning at 4 p.m. EDT. Finally, FanDuel TV will have all of the stakes action from Gulfstream and Oaklawn as part of its daily racing coverage.


Free Stakes PPs • Gulfstream entries • Track trends  

Here are the top lifetime speed figures for the Florida Derby entrants.

No. Horse Beyer* TFUS* Brisnet HRN
  1 Neoequos 91 116 101 117
  2 Cool Intentions 77   98   96 110
  3 Smoken Boy 68   92   75   90
  4 Disruptor 92 115   94 117
  5 Indecisiveness 79 102   84 105
  6 Jimmy’s Dailys 85 106   89 110
  7 Enterdadragon 76 104   91 111
  8 Madaket Road 90 115   96 116
  9 Tappan Street 87 116   99 118
10 Sovereignty 95 113   99 117

*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are presented courtesy of Daily Racing Form.

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Pace makes the race

Florida Derby pace projector
TimeformUS projects a swift, pressured pace in the Florida Derby, contested by Neoequos from the rail, Disruptor and Madaket Road. Madaket Road will be blinkers-off for this race, but he will still be forwardly-placed from his outside-ish post. Jimmy’s Dailys has run best when quick out of the gate so he, too will make for the lead.

Tucking in behind the pacesetters will be Cool Intentions and Tappan Street, whose rider Luis Saez will most likely follow Madaket Road into an outside pressing spot. Smoken Boy and Indecisivness will take up mid-pack spots early. Sovereignty and Enterdadragon will settle in at the back of the pack, ready to unfurl closing moves. Madaket Road can best take advantage of the speed-friendly Gulfstream Park surface as he has experience on the notoriously fast Santa Anita strip. Tappan Street can improve on his Holy Bull performance and is fresh off a 56-day layoff. Sovereignty will be closing best and just has to pick off the tiring leaders.

HRN tips & best bets

HRN‘s Ed DeRosa thinks the favorite Sovereignty is tough, but he is taking a risk and keying a long shot in the Florida Derby.

“Enterdadragon might look short on class, but his numbers are comparable with others behind Sovereignty,” Ed said. “His lone dirt start was a one-turn mile at Gulfstream, where he rushed up after an awkward start. I’ll gamble on this one.”

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Disruptor is one of three horses Todd Pletcher hopes will make it to the Kentucky Derby, though time is running out for one of his 3-year-olds to make the case for a rose run. 

Mike Shutty, the creator of Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener, has identified a top win and top value play with a morning line of 5-1.

“Luis Saez will secure the best position in this race with Tappan Street sitting just 2 lengths off the pace in the early going and then just a length back turning for home, getting the first jump on Sovereignty as he gets by all the pace leaders,” he said.

Get his take on Sovereignty, Madaket Road, and the Florida Derby undercard stakes in the Super Screener. It’s just $97 for weekly analysis and it includes the entire Triple Crown.

In this week’s Ron Flatter Racing Pod, David Levitch, the Paddock Prince, focuses on the Kentucky Derby preps as well as some tips for the Kentucky Oaks qualifiers this week. Also on the podcast is a heartfelt tribute to the late San Diego Union-Tribune columnist Bryce Miller. 

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Head-to-Head handicapping panelists Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis agree on three horses, but that’s where their opinions split for their final picks

Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman recap Sierra Leone’s upset defeat in the New Orleans Classic as well as give their plays for the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby.

No. Silks Horse / Sire Rating Trainer / Jockey Last start Morn. line
  1 Horse Silk Neoequos Neoequos

Neolithic
7.04

Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.

Edgard J. Zayas

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3rd, 2025 Fountain of Youth G2

10-1

Last race

3rd, 2025 Fountain of Youth G2

  2 Horse Silk Cool Intentions Cool Intentions

Authentic
5.87

Jorge Delgado

Javier J. Castellano

5th, 2025 Mucho Macho Man LS

20-1

Last race

5th, 2025 Mucho Macho Man LS

  3 Horse Silk Smoken Boy Smoken Boy

Catholic Boy
0.00

Cheryl Winebaugh

6th, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)

30-1

Last race

6th, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)

  4 Horse Silk Disruptor Disruptor

Gun Runner
5.92

Todd A. Pletcher

Irad Ortiz, Jr.

1st, GP MSW (3/1/25-R6)

  4-1

Last race

1st, GP MSW (3/1/25-R6)

  5 Horse Silk Indecisiveness Indecisiveness

Decisive Moment
5.45

Ruben Sierra

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Jorge Ruiz

3rd, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)

30-1

Last race

3rd, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)

  6 Horse Silk Jimmy's Dailys Jimmy’s Dailys

Vekoma
5.34

Brian A. Lynch

Joel Rosario

2nd, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)

12-1

Last race

2nd, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)

  7 Horse Silk Enterdadragon Enterdadragon

Outwork
5.12

Jose Francisco D’Angelo

Dylan Davis

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2nd, 2025 Colonel Liam LS

30-1

Last race

2nd, 2025 Colonel Liam LS

  8 Horse Silk Madaket Road Madaket Road

Quality Road
6.42

Bob Baffert

Mike E. Smith

2nd, 2025 Rebel G2

  7-2

Last race

2nd, 2025 Rebel G2

  9 Horse Silk Tappan Street Tappan Street

Into Mischief
6.39

Brad H. Cox

Luis Saez

2nd, 2025 Holy Bull G3

  5-1

Last race

2nd, 2025 Holy Bull G3

10 Horse Silk Sovereignty Sovereignty

Into Mischief
7.36

William I. Mott

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Manuel Franco

1st, 2025 Fountain of Youth G2

  8-5

Last race

1st, 2025 Fountain of Youth G2

The Grade 1, 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby (G1) is the richest race run at Oaklawn, with a $1.5 million purse. It offers 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points to the top five finishers. This year’s race has drawn nine 3-year-old colts, including Rebel (G2) winner Coal Battle. Post time for the Arkansas Derby is scheduled for 7:48 p.m. EDT.

The buzz horse and morning-line favorite at 7-2 in the Arkansas Derby is Bob Baffert’s Cornucopian, a son of Into Mischief who steps up big time in his second career start. Cornucopian sizzled in his maiden victory at Oaklawn on Rebel day going six furlongs. This Prospect Watch standout is a half-sibling to Grade 1 winner Guarana and was a $1.1 million Keeneland yearling purchase.

7-5 second choice Coal Battle comes into this off a four-race, all-stakes win streak. He ran down Madaket Road in the Rebel to clinch his spot in the Kentucky Derby, so a win is not required here but will be highly anticipated for the Lonnie Briley trainee. 

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Four other horses from the Rebel Stakes return here, including Southwest winner Speed King and Sandman, who looks for a win after hitting the board in each of his last two stakes starts.

Matt Shifman has full-field stats and analysis for the Arkansas Derby

Here are the top speed figures for the Arkansas Derby entrants.

No. Horse Beyer* TFUS* Brisnet HRN
1 Brereton’s Baytown 72   96   88 101
2 First Division 82   97   85 106
3 Publisher 92 110   93 112
4 Bestfriend Rocket 82   94   85 106
5 Speed King 93 120   92 113
6 Sandman 92 114   95 119
7 Monet’s Magic 84 109   90 106
8 Coal Battle 91 114   98 118
9 Cornucopian 101 120 100 128

*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are presented courtesy of Daily Racing Form.


Pace makes the race

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Arkansas Derby pace projector

The Arkansas Derby projects to have an average pace according to TimeformUS, with Cornucopian comfortably in front. Speed King also should be fast early, but just not quite enough to catch the Baffert horse. Coal Battle and Bestfriend Rocket look to press just behind the speed. Publisher, who has yet to win a race in six starts, gets blinkers for this race. Look for him to be more forwardly-placed early, possibly even pressing with Coal Battle. Brereton’s Baytown and Monet’s Magic will settle in mid-pack. First Division and Sandman will trail the field.

Several colts will be ready to unleash a late run here, but Cornucopian will have the advantage as speed of the speed. With John Velazquez in the saddle, any pressure from Speed King will be neutralized before a pace meltdown can develop.

HRN handicappers’ best bets

Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis decide whether Coal Battle can pass Cornucopian in the Arkansas Derby.

Chip Gerhke doesn’t buy the hype on Cornucopian for in his 3-year-old division rankings.

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Ed DeRosa thinks Bob Baffert holds all the cards in the Arkansas Derby, but will they be a straight flush?

No. Silks Horse / Sire Rating Trainer / Jockey Last start Morn. line
1 Horse Silk Brereton's Baytown Brereton’s Baytown

Upstart
0.00

Paul McEntee

Marshall Mendez

8th, 2025 Rebel G2

30-1

Last race

8th, 2025 Rebel G2

2 Horse Silk First Division First Division

Omaha Beach
0.00

Kenneth G. McPeek

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Brian J. Hernandez, Jr.

2nd, OP Alw OC (3/2/25-R9)

20-1

Last race

2nd, OP Alw OC (3/2/25-R9)

3 Horse Silk Publisher Publisher

American Pharoah
5.34

Steven M. Asmussen

Flavien Prat

4th, 2025 Rebel G2

  6-1

Last race

4th, 2025 Rebel G2

4 Horse Silk Bestfriend Rocket Bestfriend Rocket

Curlin
0.00

D. Wayne Lukas

Nik Juarez

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1st, OP Alw OC (3/2/25-R9)

20-1

Last race

1st, OP AlwOC (3/2/25-R9)

5 Horse Silk Speed King Speed King

Volatile
6.48

Ron Moquett

Rafael Bejarano

10th, 2025 Rebel G2

15-1

Last race

10th, 2025 Rebel G2

6 Horse Silk Sandman Sandman

Tapit
6.63

Mark E. Casse

Jose L. Ortiz

3rd, 2025 Rebel G2

  3-1

Last race

3rd, 2025 Rebel G2

7 Horse Silk Monet's Magic Monet’s Magic

Good Magic
5.84

Ben Colebrook

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Luan Machado

5th, 2025 Southwest G3

20-1

Last race

5th, 2025 Southwest G3

8 Horse Silk Coal Battle Coal Battle

Coal Front
7.21

Lonnie Briley

Juan P. Vargas

1st, 2025 Rebel G2

  7-2

Last race

1st, 2025 Rebel G2

9 Horse Silk Cornucopian Cornucopian

Into Mischief
4.80

Bob Baffert

John R. Velazquez

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1st, OP MSW (2/23/25-R5)

  7-5

Last race

1st, OP MSW (2/23/25-R5)



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No-no no problem | Arkansas Democrat Gazette

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No-no no problem | Arkansas Democrat Gazette


FAYETTEVILLE — The stage was not too bright for University of Arkansas softball pitcher Payton Burnham in her first NCAA Tournament start.

The freshman right-hander got the start in the Razorbacks’ first game of the Fayetteville Regional on Friday, and she made the most of it in a 10-0, five-inning victory over Saint Louis at Bogle Park.

Burnham pitched the 17th no-hitter in program history, and the first by a Razorback in the NCAA Tournament.

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She became the third Arkansas pitcher to accomplish the feat this season, joining Robyn Herron (Feb. 16 vs. Louisiana-Monroe) and Reis Beuerlein (April 18 vs. Colorado State).

“I’m really proud of P for a no-hitter,” Arkansas coach Courtney Deifel said. “It’s really exciting as a freshman to come (into) your first postseason game in Bogle and just really trust your stuff and trust your defense.”

Arkansas advanced to play Oklahoma State (34-18) in winners bracket matchup scheduled for noon Saturday. The Cowgirls erased a four-run deficit to defeat Indiana 11-6 in Friday’s first game.

“When you get out here, no matter if it’s your first one or your 10th one, you have a little bit of nerves,” Deifel said. “There’s excitement, and for them to just stay really present and do what they do — it was great to see them so comfortable in that moment.”

Burnham (14-2) accomplished her no-hitter in 66 pitches, throwing 41 for strikes. She struck out 6 with 1 walk and 1 hit batter while inducing 6 groundouts and 3 fly outs.

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It was Burnham’s second consecutive standout performance in front of a home crowd at Bogle Park, also getting a shutout May 3 in the regular-season finale against LSU.

Her performance Friday came in front of an announced crowd of 3,038.

“My defense behind me, they played perfect,” Burnham said. “It wouldn’t have happened without them, but I was just trusting my stuff through the zone, trusting in my defense and then our offense, just putting the pressure on and keeping the pressure on.”

The Razorbacks gave their pitcher immediate run support when they batted through the lineup in a five-run bottom of the first.

Reagan Johnson led off with a single down the third-base line, then stole second base on the second pitch of Bri Ellis’ at-bat. Ellis and Courtney Day both walked in four pitches to load the bases with one out for Kailey Wyckoff, who delivered with an RBI single to right field

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It was the onset of a big game for the Texas Tech transfer.

In her first NCAA Tournament game, the junior was 3 for 3 with a career-high 5 RBI. The lefty hitter had a pair of singles and a double.

“Being in postseason for the first time, I kind of got a little bit in my feels,” Wyckoff said. “I kind of had to set that aside, because it’s not about me. But going into it, I just knew that I had to stick to my plan and it just kind of worked out for me.”

It was the second consecutive game for Wyckoff to record three hits, tying her season-high.

“She’s just been on fire lately,” Deifel said. “She is an elite hitter.”

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Ella McDowell walked with the bases loaded to tack on another run before Kennedy Miller kept the big inning going with a two-run single up the middle. Atalyia Rijo drew a walk to load the bases for nine-hole hitter Karlie Davison, who singled to left field to stretch the lead to 5-0.

It began a rough outing for Saint Louis starting pitcher Taylor Hochman, who gave up 10 runs in her 3 1/3-inning start. Hochman (16-8) allowed 7 hits and 7 walks against the 25 batters she faced.

“Kudos to Arkansas,” Saint Louis Coach Christy Connoyer said. “They can swing the bat … very disciplined team. Courtney, she runs a really nice program. S, hats off to Arkansas for their discipline and their plate approach.”

Wyckoff extended the lead to 6-0 in the bottom of the second with a sharply hit RBI single up the middle to score Raigan Kramer, who led off the inning with a single.

After a scoreless third, the Razorbacks poured it on again in the fourth.

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Wyckoff delivered the game’s only multi-base hit with a bases-clearing double to left-center field. It scored Kramer, Ellis and Day, who reached due to walks and an error. Rijo set the game’s final score with an RBI single up the middle.

“I think we were all just seeing the ball really well today,” Wyckoff said.

Burnham enacted a run rule in the fifth inning, ending the game with a strikeout of Allie Marietta. She was the third Billiken who struck out looking, as Burnham mixed her speeds and kept them guessing.

“She moved the ball well,” Saint Louis catcher Abby Mallo said. “She changed speeds, changed planes. We saw a lot of rise balls and a lot of changeups. It kept batters off balance.”

Burnham, whose family is moving to Arkansas, said her mother Kendall was in the stands to watch her big performance. The former Kendall Richards was a star at Texas A&M, where she set the program’s single-season batting average record of .454 in 1996.

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“You could tell right away (Burnham) has some intangibles that you just can’t coach,” said Deifel, recalling recruiting the pitcher. “She wants the ball. She’s fearless. She’s competitive.”

Left-hander Isabel Royle pitched the final two outs for the Billikens and gave up one hit.

Arkansas won a home regional opener in run-rule fashion for the fourth time in five years. Each of those have been shutouts.

“I’m just really proud of the team with the way they came out in our first game here,” Deifel said “I thought that P and our defense set a really good tone in the first inning. Our offense carried that momentum, and I thought they just did an incredible job of taking what they gave us and then also being ready when the ball showed up. I just thought it was a complete effort.”

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Tennessee vs Arkansas Baseball Score – Vols Rally to Take Game One

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Tennessee vs Arkansas Baseball Score – Vols Rally to Take Game One


The Tennessee Volunteers rallied to defeat the Arkansas Razorbacks in game one.

The Tennessee Volunteers have a tough final conference series this weekend as they traveled out to Arkansas to take on the Razorbacks, and they got the weekend started on the right foot. The Volunteers used a late inning rally to secure the win over Arkansas in game one.

Heading into the fourth inning, Tennessee was trailing 2-1. Singles from Manny Marin and Gavin Kilen helped plate three runs in the fourth inning to send the Volunteers out in front. Dalton Bargo and Dean Curley then launched home runs in the seventh inning to extend their lead, making the score 7-3. Then the Razorbacks started rallying back.

A single from Aloy plated two runs across and then a fielder’s choice allowed another to score, making it 7-6 heading into the ninth inning. Cannon Peebles then launched a two-run shot in the top of the ninth and Gavin Kilen knocked in another run off of a single and a throwing error to extend their lead and eventually secure the win.

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Game two is set for 7:30 PM on Friday and will be streamed on SEC Network+ for those who want to watch it.

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Four-star in-state guard commits to Arkansas

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Four-star in-state guard commits to Arkansas


Arkansas and head coach John Calipari earned its first commitment for the 2026 class on Thursday. In-state four-star guard JJ Andrews announced his commitment to the Razorbacks in the Little Rock Christian Academy gymnasium, choosing Arkansas over LSU and Missouri.

The son of former Arkansas football great Shawn Andrews, the 6-foot-6 guard has earned major praise in recent weeks for his performance in the Phoenix EYBL Session.

In addition to his performance on the Circuit, Andrews was also named the Gatorade Player of the Year in the state of Arkansas for the 2024-2025 season at Little Rock Christian Academy. He posted 28.5 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.0 blocks per game in his junior campaign.

Andrews is the second in-state prospect Calipari has landed at Arkansas, following Springdale product Isaiah Sealy in the 2025 class. It also gives the Razorbacks consecutive classes with an in-state player after having zero in the 2024 class. Over the past 15 years, Arkansas has only had four classes where it didn’t land a player from an in-state high school or who was originally from the state: 2024, 2021, 2015, and 2012.

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The Arkansas coaching staff is just getting started with filling the 2026 class, with many more names eyeing visits or potentially reclassifying to the 2025 class.



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