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Kentucky Derby prep guide for Florida Derby & Arkansas Derby

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Kentucky Derby prep guide for Florida Derby & Arkansas Derby


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Illustration by Candice Curtis / Eclipse Sportswire / Coady Media

The road to Kentucky Derby 2025 draws even closer to Churchill Downs Saturday with two of the most productive preps for finding Derby winners: the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby. These million-dollar races have combined to produce 31 Kentucky Derby winners since 1953.

After these races, the Kentucky Derby starting gate will be more than half full according to math and history. 

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The first of these premiere preps is the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park. Ten 3-year-old colts have been entered for the chance at 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points and the $1 million purse. Post time for the Florida Derby is scheduled for 6:42 p.m. EDT.

The 8-5 morning line favorite is Sovereignty, the Fountain of Youth (G2) winner trained by Bill Mott. The Into Mischief colt unveiled a powerful closing move in his juvenile season that he proved still has a dangerous kick in his first start as a 3-year-old. Jockey Manny Franco replaces his regular rider, Junior Alvarado, after he suffered a shoulder injury last week. 

Bob Baffert ships Madaket Road to Gulfstream for a rare Florida appearance on the Derby trail. Madaket Road was last seen finishing behind Coal Battle in the Rebel (G2) and opts for this spot instead of the Arkansas Derby for the son of Quality Road. Original rider Tyler Gaffalione also suffered an injury this week, so Mike Smith will also ship in to take the last-minute ride. 

Brad Cox sends Holy Bull (G2) runner-up Tappan Street back into the fray after skipping the Fountain of Youth. He got a wide trip in the Holy Bull, which was only his second lifetime start, but closed well enough to show his talent. 

Disruptor steps up into stakes company and stretches out in distance in his third career start for Todd Pletcher. The $1.5 million Gun Runner colt ran away from the field in his last start at Gulfstream, a seven-furlong maiden special weight.

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Get to know all of the Florida Derby contenders with Matt Shifman, who also provides odds and tips. 

TV coverage of both the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby will be on CNBC and streaming on Peacock beginning at 6 p.m. EDT. FS2 will broadcast the Arkansas Derby and Oaklawn undercard stakes as part of America’s Day at the Races beginning at 4 p.m. EDT. Finally, FanDuel TV will have all of the stakes action from Gulfstream and Oaklawn as part of its daily racing coverage.


Free Stakes PPs • Gulfstream entries • Track trends  

Here are the top lifetime speed figures for the Florida Derby entrants.

No. Horse Beyer* TFUS* Brisnet HRN
  1 Neoequos 91 116 101 117
  2 Cool Intentions 77   98   96 110
  3 Smoken Boy 68   92   75   90
  4 Disruptor 92 115   94 117
  5 Indecisiveness 79 102   84 105
  6 Jimmy’s Dailys 85 106   89 110
  7 Enterdadragon 76 104   91 111
  8 Madaket Road 90 115   96 116
  9 Tappan Street 87 116   99 118
10 Sovereignty 95 113   99 117

*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are presented courtesy of Daily Racing Form.

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Pace makes the race

Florida Derby pace projector
TimeformUS projects a swift, pressured pace in the Florida Derby, contested by Neoequos from the rail, Disruptor and Madaket Road. Madaket Road will be blinkers-off for this race, but he will still be forwardly-placed from his outside-ish post. Jimmy’s Dailys has run best when quick out of the gate so he, too will make for the lead.

Tucking in behind the pacesetters will be Cool Intentions and Tappan Street, whose rider Luis Saez will most likely follow Madaket Road into an outside pressing spot. Smoken Boy and Indecisivness will take up mid-pack spots early. Sovereignty and Enterdadragon will settle in at the back of the pack, ready to unfurl closing moves. Madaket Road can best take advantage of the speed-friendly Gulfstream Park surface as he has experience on the notoriously fast Santa Anita strip. Tappan Street can improve on his Holy Bull performance and is fresh off a 56-day layoff. Sovereignty will be closing best and just has to pick off the tiring leaders.

HRN tips & best bets

HRN‘s Ed DeRosa thinks the favorite Sovereignty is tough, but he is taking a risk and keying a long shot in the Florida Derby.

“Enterdadragon might look short on class, but his numbers are comparable with others behind Sovereignty,” Ed said. “His lone dirt start was a one-turn mile at Gulfstream, where he rushed up after an awkward start. I’ll gamble on this one.”

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Disruptor is one of three horses Todd Pletcher hopes will make it to the Kentucky Derby, though time is running out for one of his 3-year-olds to make the case for a rose run. 

Mike Shutty, the creator of Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener, has identified a top win and top value play with a morning line of 5-1.

“Luis Saez will secure the best position in this race with Tappan Street sitting just 2 lengths off the pace in the early going and then just a length back turning for home, getting the first jump on Sovereignty as he gets by all the pace leaders,” he said.

Get his take on Sovereignty, Madaket Road, and the Florida Derby undercard stakes in the Super Screener. It’s just $97 for weekly analysis and it includes the entire Triple Crown.

In this week’s Ron Flatter Racing Pod, David Levitch, the Paddock Prince, focuses on the Kentucky Derby preps as well as some tips for the Kentucky Oaks qualifiers this week. Also on the podcast is a heartfelt tribute to the late San Diego Union-Tribune columnist Bryce Miller. 

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Head-to-Head handicapping panelists Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis agree on three horses, but that’s where their opinions split for their final picks

Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman recap Sierra Leone’s upset defeat in the New Orleans Classic as well as give their plays for the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby.

No. Silks Horse / Sire Rating Trainer / Jockey Last start Morn. line
  1 Horse Silk Neoequos Neoequos

Neolithic
7.04

Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.

Edgard J. Zayas

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3rd, 2025 Fountain of Youth G2

10-1

Last race

3rd, 2025 Fountain of Youth G2

  2 Horse Silk Cool Intentions Cool Intentions

Authentic
5.87

Jorge Delgado

Javier J. Castellano

5th, 2025 Mucho Macho Man LS

20-1

Last race

5th, 2025 Mucho Macho Man LS

  3 Horse Silk Smoken Boy Smoken Boy

Catholic Boy
0.00

Cheryl Winebaugh

6th, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)

30-1

Last race

6th, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)

  4 Horse Silk Disruptor Disruptor

Gun Runner
5.92

Todd A. Pletcher

Irad Ortiz, Jr.

1st, GP MSW (3/1/25-R6)

  4-1

Last race

1st, GP MSW (3/1/25-R6)

  5 Horse Silk Indecisiveness Indecisiveness

Decisive Moment
5.45

Ruben Sierra

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Jorge Ruiz

3rd, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)

30-1

Last race

3rd, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)

  6 Horse Silk Jimmy's Dailys Jimmy’s Dailys

Vekoma
5.34

Brian A. Lynch

Joel Rosario

2nd, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)

12-1

Last race

2nd, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)

  7 Horse Silk Enterdadragon Enterdadragon

Outwork
5.12

Jose Francisco D’Angelo

Dylan Davis

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2nd, 2025 Colonel Liam LS

30-1

Last race

2nd, 2025 Colonel Liam LS

  8 Horse Silk Madaket Road Madaket Road

Quality Road
6.42

Bob Baffert

Mike E. Smith

2nd, 2025 Rebel G2

  7-2

Last race

2nd, 2025 Rebel G2

  9 Horse Silk Tappan Street Tappan Street

Into Mischief
6.39

Brad H. Cox

Luis Saez

2nd, 2025 Holy Bull G3

  5-1

Last race

2nd, 2025 Holy Bull G3

10 Horse Silk Sovereignty Sovereignty

Into Mischief
7.36

William I. Mott

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Manuel Franco

1st, 2025 Fountain of Youth G2

  8-5

Last race

1st, 2025 Fountain of Youth G2

The Grade 1, 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby (G1) is the richest race run at Oaklawn, with a $1.5 million purse. It offers 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points to the top five finishers. This year’s race has drawn nine 3-year-old colts, including Rebel (G2) winner Coal Battle. Post time for the Arkansas Derby is scheduled for 7:48 p.m. EDT.

The buzz horse and morning-line favorite at 7-2 in the Arkansas Derby is Bob Baffert’s Cornucopian, a son of Into Mischief who steps up big time in his second career start. Cornucopian sizzled in his maiden victory at Oaklawn on Rebel day going six furlongs. This Prospect Watch standout is a half-sibling to Grade 1 winner Guarana and was a $1.1 million Keeneland yearling purchase.

7-5 second choice Coal Battle comes into this off a four-race, all-stakes win streak. He ran down Madaket Road in the Rebel to clinch his spot in the Kentucky Derby, so a win is not required here but will be highly anticipated for the Lonnie Briley trainee. 

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Four other horses from the Rebel Stakes return here, including Southwest winner Speed King and Sandman, who looks for a win after hitting the board in each of his last two stakes starts.

Matt Shifman has full-field stats and analysis for the Arkansas Derby

Here are the top speed figures for the Arkansas Derby entrants.

No. Horse Beyer* TFUS* Brisnet HRN
1 Brereton’s Baytown 72   96   88 101
2 First Division 82   97   85 106
3 Publisher 92 110   93 112
4 Bestfriend Rocket 82   94   85 106
5 Speed King 93 120   92 113
6 Sandman 92 114   95 119
7 Monet’s Magic 84 109   90 106
8 Coal Battle 91 114   98 118
9 Cornucopian 101 120 100 128

*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are presented courtesy of Daily Racing Form.


Pace makes the race

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Arkansas Derby pace projector

The Arkansas Derby projects to have an average pace according to TimeformUS, with Cornucopian comfortably in front. Speed King also should be fast early, but just not quite enough to catch the Baffert horse. Coal Battle and Bestfriend Rocket look to press just behind the speed. Publisher, who has yet to win a race in six starts, gets blinkers for this race. Look for him to be more forwardly-placed early, possibly even pressing with Coal Battle. Brereton’s Baytown and Monet’s Magic will settle in mid-pack. First Division and Sandman will trail the field.

Several colts will be ready to unleash a late run here, but Cornucopian will have the advantage as speed of the speed. With John Velazquez in the saddle, any pressure from Speed King will be neutralized before a pace meltdown can develop.

HRN handicappers’ best bets

Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis decide whether Coal Battle can pass Cornucopian in the Arkansas Derby.

Chip Gerhke doesn’t buy the hype on Cornucopian for in his 3-year-old division rankings.

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Ed DeRosa thinks Bob Baffert holds all the cards in the Arkansas Derby, but will they be a straight flush?

No. Silks Horse / Sire Rating Trainer / Jockey Last start Morn. line
1 Horse Silk Brereton's Baytown Brereton’s Baytown

Upstart
0.00

Paul McEntee

Marshall Mendez

8th, 2025 Rebel G2

30-1

Last race

8th, 2025 Rebel G2

2 Horse Silk First Division First Division

Omaha Beach
0.00

Kenneth G. McPeek

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Brian J. Hernandez, Jr.

2nd, OP Alw OC (3/2/25-R9)

20-1

Last race

2nd, OP Alw OC (3/2/25-R9)

3 Horse Silk Publisher Publisher

American Pharoah
5.34

Steven M. Asmussen

Flavien Prat

4th, 2025 Rebel G2

  6-1

Last race

4th, 2025 Rebel G2

4 Horse Silk Bestfriend Rocket Bestfriend Rocket

Curlin
0.00

D. Wayne Lukas

Nik Juarez

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1st, OP Alw OC (3/2/25-R9)

20-1

Last race

1st, OP AlwOC (3/2/25-R9)

5 Horse Silk Speed King Speed King

Volatile
6.48

Ron Moquett

Rafael Bejarano

10th, 2025 Rebel G2

15-1

Last race

10th, 2025 Rebel G2

6 Horse Silk Sandman Sandman

Tapit
6.63

Mark E. Casse

Jose L. Ortiz

3rd, 2025 Rebel G2

  3-1

Last race

3rd, 2025 Rebel G2

7 Horse Silk Monet's Magic Monet’s Magic

Good Magic
5.84

Ben Colebrook

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Luan Machado

5th, 2025 Southwest G3

20-1

Last race

5th, 2025 Southwest G3

8 Horse Silk Coal Battle Coal Battle

Coal Front
7.21

Lonnie Briley

Juan P. Vargas

1st, 2025 Rebel G2

  7-2

Last race

1st, 2025 Rebel G2

9 Horse Silk Cornucopian Cornucopian

Into Mischief
4.80

Bob Baffert

John R. Velazquez

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1st, OP MSW (2/23/25-R5)

  7-5

Last race

1st, OP MSW (2/23/25-R5)



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Q&A: St. Louis Post-Dispatch reporter Eli Hoff talks Arkansas-Missouri football | Whole Hog Sports

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Q&A: St. Louis Post-Dispatch reporter Eli Hoff talks Arkansas-Missouri football | Whole Hog Sports





Q&A: St. Louis Post-Dispatch reporter Eli Hoff talks Arkansas-Missouri football | Whole Hog Sports







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Persisting problems doom John Calipari, Arkansas basketball’s upset bid vs Duke

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Persisting problems doom John Calipari, Arkansas basketball’s upset bid vs Duke


CHICAGO — Persisting problems plagued Arkansas basketball in its second marquee matchup of the 2025-26 season.

The No. 21 Razorbacks (5-2) led by seven points with 10 minutes remaining, but No. 4 Duke (7-0) rallied for an 80-71 victory behind 35 points from Cameron Boozer. Arkansas had a chance at snagging a resume-building win, but in a similar fashion to their loss at Michigan State, the Hogs failed to execute down the stretch.

Against the Spartans, Arkansas scored three points in the final 3:57. A similar drought doomed the Razorbacks on Thanksgiving as the Hogs made two field goals across the last six minutes. Duke closed its win on a 19-7 run.

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“We just got to figure out how to finish games collectively. Be connected,” coach John Calipari said.

The final two baskets for Arkansas came from Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas. The two freshmen once again led the Hogs on offense. Acuff scored 21, and Thomas chipped in 13.

According to Duke coach Jon Scheyer, limiting Arkansas’ young backcourt unlocked Duke’s defense down the stretch.

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“Guarding the ball with Caleb (Foster) on Acuff,” Scheyer said. “I thought Nick Khamenia had some great moments with Thomas. I thought it started with guarding the ball. I thought our switches were tight with all these guys, and then just you try to make them score over the top, knowing they may hit a couple.”

But Arkansas’ problems extend beyond bouts of poor offense from its dynamic freshmen. Those two are consistent scorers. The same can’t be said for the rest of the roster.

Trevon Brazile had a strong night with 11 points and 11 rebounds, but Karter Knox and D.J. Wagner combined for just five points. It was the second dud against a ranked opponent for Knox, who was scoreless against Michigan State.

He and Wagner were supposed to be two of Arkansas’ best players this season. Neither is averaging more than eight points.

The duo combined to play just 14 minutes in the second half. Calipari rode Acuff at point guard and gave Billy Richmond III 13 minutes at the wing. The coach liked Richmond’s hustle on the glass, but the sophomore finished with five turnovers.

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After the game, Calipari didn’t dish out much concern with the pieces surrounding his five-star freshmen.

“The other guys had it going, and that’s why D.J. didn’t play as much, but I know who DJ is as a player. I respect him and love him as a player,” Calipari said.

“Love coaching them, but look, when you’re coaching sometimes, the way the game goes, somebody plays more and somebody plays less. Next game may be somebody else. Maybe Karter plays more and Billy plays less, but we had a chance to win.”

If the Razorbacks want to capitalize on these chances, they must get more consistent production from up and down the roster.

There won’t be a shortage of opportunities. The Hogs face No. 4 Louisville, No. 2 Houston and No. 20 Texas Tech in the next four weeks. The Cardinals come to Bud Walton Arena on Wednesday.

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Jackson Fuller covers Arkansas football, basketball and baseball for the Southwest Times Record, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at jfuller@usatodayco.com or follow him @jacksonfuller16 on X, formerly known as Twitter. 



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Petrino not ready to tip hand at QB | Arkansas Democrat Gazette

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Petrino not ready to tip hand at QB | Arkansas Democrat Gazette


FAYETTEVILLE — Generating yardage has seldom been a problem for the University of Arkansas football team this season.

Under second-year offensive coordinator and interim Coach Bobby Petrino, the Razorbacks (2-9, 0-7 SEC) check in at third in the SEC and 11th in the country in total offense with 473.8 yards per game heading into Saturday’s season-finale against Missouri (7-4, 3-4).

That’s one of the reasons why Petrino’s name remained on the edges in the hunt to take over the full-time coaching duties, even if the odds are slim, and why he’d be a coveted coordinator in 2026 for many a coach.

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The issues on offense have dealt more with hanging onto the football and ultimately cashing in points to match the big production, largely triggered by senior quarterback Taylen Green, who is sixth in the country with 311.6 yards per game.

The albatross is a turnover margin of minus-1.09 per game, with 20 turnovers versus 8 takeaways, a deficit that is 5-0 in the past two games and only two takeaways against SEC competition.

Asked if turnover margin was the biggest culprit that has defined the season, Petrino replied, “No question about it.

“As far as what we’ve been able to do with yards and points and third-down conversions, you look at a lot of the statistics and we’re doing a nice job. But turning the ball over is what has hurt us the most.”

Green has thrown 11 interceptions and lost 3 of 6 fumbles through 11 games for an average of 1 interception and 1.3 turnovers per game. Only five FBS starting quarterbacks ranked in the top 100 have thrown more interceptions than Green.

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Petrino elected to not have Green return to action during the second half of last week’s 52-37 loss at No. 17 Texas after he was out briefly with tightening hamstrings. Green’s final play was a head-scratcher of a pitch into the second level of the Texas defense, which was intercepted by Jelani McDonald and returned 11 yards to set up a touchdown for a 38-20 Longhorn lead.

Backup KJ Jackson, in the most significant action of his college career, also accounted for a turnover — a strip sack initiated by Collin Simmons and returned 52 yards for a touchdown by Liona Leafu. But he led scoring drives on his three other possessions.

So Petrino enters the final game with a quarterback question: Go with the fifth-year senior as the best option to beat Missouri or roll with the redshirt freshman, who is coming off a solid showing.

Petrino said he’d keep the starting job under wraps all week.

Missouri Coach Eli Drinkwitz, like a string of SEC coaches before him, touts Green’s abilities.

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“I think their quarterback is as good a quarterback as there is in the country,” Drinkwitz said. “I believe he leads the SEC in total yardage. I think he is a tremendous player.”

Arkansas senior guard Fernando Carmona said he has belief in either quarterback the Razorbacks could employ.

“A young guy with energy and he took full advantage of his opportunity,” Carmona said of Jackson. “He played a great game. Came in there and we were down a few points, and we had to go out there and pass the ball and he did a great job.

“The thing that stood out to me is young guys are usually more quiet. But KJ was loud. He was yelling at us to get lined up on the ball and he was leading us. So I told him after the game, I was like, ‘Dude, I’m really proud of you.’ “

But Carmona also touted Green’s leadership since he stepped on campus in the spring semester of 2024.

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“Taylen’s an ultimate leader at the end of the day,” he said. “Whether he’s playing or whatever the case is, or if he’s hurt, or whatever it may be, he’s always leading. Regardless if he’s playing or not, he’s going to be the same old Taylen.

“They’re both obviously great quarterbacks. You’ve seen that. It’s going to turn out, whoever’s the best and whoever lines up to be the best quarterback at the time. But I think whoever we have in there, we have ultimate faith in. Those are two great sports. Two great leaders, and they’re just trying to get each other ready, and they obviously want what’s best for the team.”

Petrino handpicked Green to join him after he was named Arkansas’ offensive coordinator two winters ago.

“We came in together, obviously, and I had a big thing to do with recruiting him here,” Petrino said. “We inherited an offense that wasn’t real good. I feel like he’s done a really nice job of competing.

“He’s been tough. He’s been able to win games. At one time, in his first year here, we were 4-2 and feeling good about it. He ended up having a great game in the bowl game.”

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Petrino also said he thinks Green has been under more pressure this season.

“This year, it’s been a hard go,” Petrino said. “I think it’s been a hard go when you have an offense that is explosive and able to score points, but not able to score as many as the other team.

“That puts a lot of pressure on you. You start feeling the pressure and you tighten up. And I think that’s where some of these errors and things have come. … When you feel like you have to score every single time you go out on the field, you don’t just play as freely as you would, you know?

“I think that’s been … some of the issues. Obviously, he needs to overcome that and take care of the ball. It’s just been a thing about taking care of the ball more than anything else. Everything else, he’s done a good job of playing, but he has been prone to turn the ball over. In games where you have to try to outscore the other team, it adds up.”

The Razorbacks want to be able to rely on their rushing attack, which ranks 20th in the country with 203.8 yards per game, though they will face the country’s 22-ranked run-stop defense in the Tigers, who allow 107.2 yards per game.

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“They’re a great defense,” Carmona said. “All three layers, you know, to the box, to the safeties, all of them are really good. I think it all starts up front. We’ve got to control that line of scrimmage and really run the ball.”

Arkansas running back Mike Washington Jr. exceeded 1,000 rushing yards for the season last week and enters the finale with 1,020 and an average of 6.5 yards per carry.

“I think their running back is an excellent player,” Drinkwitz said. “They did a great job in their scouting department getting him, recruiting him, and finding him from New Mexico State. And I think they’ve got some dangerous weapons in both the tight end and the wide receiver room.”

Arkansas tight ends Jaden Platt and Rohan Jones combined for 9 receptions for 148 yards and Platt had an 8-yard touchdown reception against Texas last week. Jones, who averages a hefty 27.4 yards per catch, had a season-high 5 catches for 82 yards.

At a glanceMISSOURI AT ARKANSASWHEN 2:30 p.m. SaturdayWHERE Reynolds Razorback Stadium, FayettevilleRECORDS Missouri 7-4, 3-4 SEC; Arkansas 2-9, 0-7TV SEC NetworkRADIO Razorback Sports NetworkLINE Missouri by 2 1/2

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Arkansas Coach Bobby Petrino (above) said he’d keep the starting quarterback against Missouri under wraps all week after both Taylen Green and KJ Jackson played in the Razorbacks’ loss to the Texas Longhorns last Saturday.
(NWA Democrat-Gazette/Hank Layton)



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