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How far does Oklahoma rise and Alabama fall? College Football Playoff ranking prediction

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How far does Oklahoma rise and Alabama fall? College Football Playoff ranking prediction


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  • Oklahoma is expected to climb to No. 8 in the College Football Playoff rankings after defeating Alabama.
  • Alabama’s loss to the Sooners will likely drop them to No. 9, just ahead of Notre Dame.
  • Ohio State, Indiana, and Texas A&M are projected to remain the top three undefeated teams.

Three high-profile teams — Oklahoma, Alabama and Notre Dame — will take the spotlight in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings.

After beating the Crimson Tide 23-21, look for the Sooners to climb to No. 8. Previously No. 4, Alabama’s fall should stop at No. 9. That will knock Notre Dame back one spot to No. 10 even after the Fighting Irish breezed past Pittsburgh.

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While the red-hot Irish have won eight in a row, Alabama has a stronger résumé against a significantly more difficult schedule.

Losses by Louisville, Iowa, Pittsburgh, South Florida and Cincinnati should open a spot for the Group of Five. Tulane is the safest bet to crack the rankings thanks to wins against Northwestern, Duke and Memphis.

Here’s how the top 12 of the third playoff rankings of the 2025 season will look:

1. Ohio State (10-0)

Best win: vs. Texas (14-7), Aug. 30.

Loss: None.

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Playoff chances: 100%. The Buckeyes could lose to Rutgers and Michigan and still earn an at-large spot. OSU could even beat Rutgers, lose to Michigan, miss the Big Ten championship game and be in contention for an opening-round bye.

2. Indiana (11-0)

Best win: at Oregon (30-20), Oct. 11.

Loss: None.          

Playoff chances: 100%. Taking care of Wisconsin locks Indiana into at least an at-large spot. Beating Purdue on Nov. 28 will send the Hoosiers to the Big Ten title game for the first time ever. That also should wrap up a bye.

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3. Texas A&M (10-0)

Best win: at Notre Dame (41-40), Sept. 13.

Loss: None.

Playoff chances: 98%. At this point, the Aggies would have to really stumble down the stretch to miss the playoff entirely. Getting routed by Texas and then backdooring into the SEC title game only to get blown out again, combined with a Notre Dame flop down the stretch, might be just enough to take A&M off the board. But even that’s a stretch.

4. Georgia (9-1)

Best win: vs. Mississippi (43-35), Oct. 18.

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Loss: vs. Alabama (24-21), Sept. 27.

Playoff chances: 99%. Only the infinitesimal chance at being upset by one-win Charlotte keeps Georgia from being a playoff lock. A shocking loss on Saturday and a loss to Georgia Tech would knock the Bulldogs out of the field.

5. Texas Tech (10-1)

Best win: vs. Brigham Young (29-7), Nov. 8.

Loss: at Arizona State (26-22), Oct. 18.

Playoff chances: 90%. To reach No. 5 in the rankings strengthens the Red Raiders’ safety net even if they fall short of a Big 12 championship. But losses to West Virginia and in the conference title game would knock Tech out of the playoff.

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6. Mississippi (10-1)

Best win: at Oklahoma (34-26), Oct. 25.

Loss: at Georgia (43-35), Oct. 18.

Playoff chances: 99%. Saturday’s unimpressive 34-24 win at home against Florida was still enough to almost ensure an at-large playoff berth regardless of what happens in the Egg Bowl.

7. Oregon (9-1)

Best win: at Iowa (18-16), Nov. 8.

Loss: vs. Indiana (30-20), Oct. 11.

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Playoff chances: 60%. The odds are better than not that Oregon is the third Big Ten team in the field. But the Ducks have played two legitimate opponents all season, losing to Indiana and barely beating Iowa. Are they ready for Saturday’s huge matchup at home against Southern California? A loss there would dump Oregon out of the top 10 heading into the finale against Washington.

8. Oklahoma (8-2)

Best win: at Alabama (23-21), Nov. 15.

Losses: vs. Texas (in Dallas) (23-6), Oct. 11; vs. Mississippi (34-26), Oct. 25.

Playoff chances: 55%. Tossed aside after two October losses, the Sooners have rallied into at-large position with wins this month against Tennessee and Alabama. Oklahoma is in with wins at home against Missouri and LSU – and likely with home game in first round – but can’t afford a third defeat.

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9. Alabama (9-2)

Best win: at Georgia (24-21), Sept. 27.

Losses: at Florida State (31-17), Aug. 30; vs. Oklahoma (23-21), Nov. 15.

Playoff chances: 75%. Alabama can still lock down a spot in the SEC title game and an at-large berth by beating Auburn. But a loss in the Iron Bowl will knock the Tide out of the mix.

10. Notre Dame (9-2)

Best win: vs. Southern California (34-24), Oct. 18.

Loss: at Miami (27-24), Aug. 31; vs. Texas A&M (41-40), Sept. 13.

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Playoff chances: 85%. While they shouldn’t lose to Syracuse or Stanford, dropping one spot in the rankings will make the Irish feel a little more anxious about securing that at-large bid. Falling to No. 10 would move them a little closer to Miami, and it would be bad news for Notre Dame if that head-to-head tiebreaker came into play.

11. Brigham Young (9-1)

Best win: vs. Utah (24-21), Oct. 18.

Loss: at Texas Tech (29-7), Nov. 8.

Playoff chances: 33%. The Cougars’ best chance is via a conference title. But a chaotic finish in the Big Ten or SEC might give the Big 12 a chance at two playoff teams. In that scenario, BYU would need to beat Cincinnati and Central Florida convincingly and then play dramatically better against Texas Tech in the conference title game to crack the top 10.

12. Utah (9-2)

Best win: vs. Cincinnati (45-14), Nov. 1.

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Losses: vs. Texas Tech (34-10), Sept. 20; at Brigham Young (24-21), Oct. 18.

Playoff chances: 10%. Losses to the Red Raiders and BYU will block Utah from the Big 12 title game. Getting an at-large bid is possible but very improbable given the number of teams ahead of the Utes and the fact there are still two teams behind them — the ACC champion and the Group of Five representative — who will be bumped into the bracket with the final rankings.



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Alabama

May they see your driver license?: Down in Alabama

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May they see your driver license?: Down in Alabama


Driver license, please

A case we followed here in 2022 has found its way to the Alabama Supreme Court.

AL.com’s Sarah Whites-Koditschek reports that the question is whether Alabama Police officers can demand to see people’s driver licenses or other IDs if they have probable cause.

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In 2022, Childersburg Police answered a call about somebody on the property of people who were not home. The man, Michael Jennings, said he was watering flowers for his neighbors. The officers told him to provide an ID. He would only give his name as “Pastor Jennings” and refused to provide identification. Eventually the officers arrested him on a charge of obstructing government operations.

Attorney Ed Haden is representing the city and a group of police officers. He argued before the justices that state law gives officers with probable cause the authority to identify people, and that means a full name verified by identification.

Jennings attorney Henry Daniels argued the opposite, telling the justices that “Entitlement to live one’s life free from unwarranted interference by law enforcement or other governmental entities is fundamental to liberty.”

How low can you go?

Alabama’s preliminary, seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for December came in at a low 2.7% and was accompanied by record-breaking employment totals, reports AL.com’s Heather Gann.

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Alabama Department of Workforce Secretary Greg Reed announced the figures on Wednesday.

Records fell for the number of people counted as employed and wage and salary employment. The difference between those two stats is that “wage and salary employment” doesn’t include a few types of workers such as the self-employed.

Alabama’s 2.7% rate was down from 3.3% in November ’24. And it was tracking well below the national rate.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. unemployment rate was 4.6%. That’s low, historically speaking, but the highest it’s been since September 2021.

RIP, songwriter Jim McBride

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Huntsville native, country-music songwriter and Alabama Music Hall of Famer Jim McBride has passed away, reports AL.com’s Patrick Darrington.

McBride, who was from Huntsville, wrote or co-wrote No. 1s such as Johnny Lee’s “Bet Your Heart on Me” and Waylon Jennings’ very last chart-topper, “Rose in Paradise.”

With legends such as Kris Kristofferson, Willie Nelson and George Jones cutting his songs, he became a Nashville mainstay himself during the 1980s. In the country-music business, a lot of figures like McBride aren’t the household names of the recording artists, but the smart recording artists are going to gravitate to somebody who can take a song or a hook or an idea and turn it into something that might hit. So the songwriters become famous inside the industry and many of them are like family to the Opry stars and in high demand for late-night guitar pulls. We had another one — Bobby Tomberlin — on the podcast on Sept. 12, and he told some great stories about that life.

Well, one of those smart recording artists who wound up in McBride’s orbit in the late ’80s was a fresh-faced Alan Jackson. Their songwriter partnership produced the No. 1 songs “Someday” and CMA Single and Song of the year “Chattahoochee” as well as many others, including the Top 5s “Chasing That Neon Rainbow” and “(Who Says) You Can’t Have it All.”

That alone is a career.

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Jim McBride was 78 years old.

Quoting

“To all our ICE agents in Minnesota and across the country: if you are violently attacked, SHOOT BACK.”

U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville, in a response to a woman’s being shot and killed in Minnesota on Wednesday after she allegedly tried to drive her SUV into an immigration officer.

By the Numbers

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60%

That’s the percentage of Alabamians in an AL.com survey that said they expect to spend more on housing or rental costs this year compared to 2025.

Born on This Date

In 1977, actress Amber Benson of Birmingham.

The podcast

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Former Alabama OL starter transferring to SEC rival

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Former Alabama OL starter transferring to SEC rival


Alabama football will see one of its ex-starters next season. Wilkin Formby is joining Texas A&M out of the transfer portal, after three seasons with the Crimson Tide.

Formby shared the news to his Instagram account on Wednesday. He opted to enter the transfer portal after the 2025 season came to an end with a 38-3 loss to Indiana in the Rose Bowl.

The Tuscaloosa native and Northridge product played both guard and tackle this past season. Coaches praised his versatility.

“Wilkin obviously has the athleticism to to play inside, and the size,” offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said in September. “So I think there’s a couple things that happen for Wilkin in there, his natural pad-level because he’s got his hand in the dirt, and he’s got a good base and wide frame, so he’d done a really nice job in there. So we keep working on that and expand. As long as he can stay right-handed, playing on the right side, I think the transition for him is easy.”

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Formby started out the year at right tackle, where he had previously played. He eventually moved over to guard, after Michael Carroll emerged as a viable tackle option.

The departure of Formby is part of a larger renovation of the Crimson Tide’s offensive line, which has now lost every starter besides Carroll. Kadyn Proctor and Parker Brailsford opted to leave early for the NFL Draft, while Geno VanDeMark, Kam Dewberry and Jaeden Roberts are out of eligibility.

Alabama is also losing several reserve linemen to the portal. Arkel Anugwom is entering, joining Olaus Alinen (who committed to Kentucky), Joseph Ionata and Micah DeBose.

UA has made one offensive line pickup from the portal. Former Michigan center Kaden Strayhorn is joining the Tide.

Alabama will face Formby in Tuscaloosa this season. Texas A&M visits Bryant-Denny Stadium on Oct. 24.

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Undergraduate players can opt to enter the transfer portal through Jan. 16.



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Prediction, odds for Alabama vs. Vanderbilt in Top 15 SEC showdown

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Prediction, odds for Alabama vs. Vanderbilt in Top 15 SEC showdown


After an impressive home win over Kentucky this past Saturday afternoon, the SEC road opener has now arrived for the Alabama Crimson Tide, which is a trip to Nashville to face the unbeaten Vanderbilt Commodores on Wednesday night.

Two teams ranked in the Top 15 nationally in the latest USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll, Alabama and Vanderbilt have emerged as two of the SEC’s top teams this season, and are also both currently among the top scoring teams in all of college basketball.

Both of Alabama and Vanderbilt are also loaded with talent as well, headlined by a talented group of guards such as Labaron Philon Jr. and Aden Holloway for the Crimson Tide, as well as the Commodores duo of Duke Miles and Tyler Tanner.

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One of college basketball’s top matchups of the week, following are the latest odds for the SEC showdown between Alabama and Vanderbilt in Nashville.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Tuesday, Jan. 6:

  • Money Line: Alabama (plus-145), Vanderbilt (minus-180)
  • Spread: Vanderbilt by 4 1/2
  • Over/Under: 178 1/2

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Vanderbilt Commodores prediction, pick:

Memorial Gymnasium can be a difficult place to play for a road team at times, and it will likely be challenging for the Crimson Tide on Wednesday night, especially with the undefeated Commodores on the opposite end of the floor. A matchup in which Alabama has won four-straight dating back to 2023, as well as the last five in Nashville, I’ll go with Alabama to hand Vanderbilt their first loss Wednesday night in a high-scoring contest. Prediction: Alabama 88, Vanderbilt 82

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Vanderbilt Commodores channel, start time, streaming:

A Top 25 showdown, Alabama and Vanderbilt are set to meet Wednesday, Jan. 7, from inside Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville, Tennessee. The game is set to begin at 9 p.m. ET live on ESPN2.

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