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How far does Oklahoma rise and Alabama fall? College Football Playoff ranking prediction

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How far does Oklahoma rise and Alabama fall? College Football Playoff ranking prediction


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  • Oklahoma is expected to climb to No. 8 in the College Football Playoff rankings after defeating Alabama.
  • Alabama’s loss to the Sooners will likely drop them to No. 9, just ahead of Notre Dame.
  • Ohio State, Indiana, and Texas A&M are projected to remain the top three undefeated teams.

Three high-profile teams — Oklahoma, Alabama and Notre Dame — will take the spotlight in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings.

After beating the Crimson Tide 23-21, look for the Sooners to climb to No. 8. Previously No. 4, Alabama’s fall should stop at No. 9. That will knock Notre Dame back one spot to No. 10 even after the Fighting Irish breezed past Pittsburgh.

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While the red-hot Irish have won eight in a row, Alabama has a stronger résumé against a significantly more difficult schedule.

Losses by Louisville, Iowa, Pittsburgh, South Florida and Cincinnati should open a spot for the Group of Five. Tulane is the safest bet to crack the rankings thanks to wins against Northwestern, Duke and Memphis.

Here’s how the top 12 of the third playoff rankings of the 2025 season will look:

1. Ohio State (10-0)

Best win: vs. Texas (14-7), Aug. 30.

Loss: None.

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Playoff chances: 100%. The Buckeyes could lose to Rutgers and Michigan and still earn an at-large spot. OSU could even beat Rutgers, lose to Michigan, miss the Big Ten championship game and be in contention for an opening-round bye.

2. Indiana (11-0)

Best win: at Oregon (30-20), Oct. 11.

Loss: None.          

Playoff chances: 100%. Taking care of Wisconsin locks Indiana into at least an at-large spot. Beating Purdue on Nov. 28 will send the Hoosiers to the Big Ten title game for the first time ever. That also should wrap up a bye.

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3. Texas A&M (10-0)

Best win: at Notre Dame (41-40), Sept. 13.

Loss: None.

Playoff chances: 98%. At this point, the Aggies would have to really stumble down the stretch to miss the playoff entirely. Getting routed by Texas and then backdooring into the SEC title game only to get blown out again, combined with a Notre Dame flop down the stretch, might be just enough to take A&M off the board. But even that’s a stretch.

4. Georgia (9-1)

Best win: vs. Mississippi (43-35), Oct. 18.

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Loss: vs. Alabama (24-21), Sept. 27.

Playoff chances: 99%. Only the infinitesimal chance at being upset by one-win Charlotte keeps Georgia from being a playoff lock. A shocking loss on Saturday and a loss to Georgia Tech would knock the Bulldogs out of the field.

5. Texas Tech (10-1)

Best win: vs. Brigham Young (29-7), Nov. 8.

Loss: at Arizona State (26-22), Oct. 18.

Playoff chances: 90%. To reach No. 5 in the rankings strengthens the Red Raiders’ safety net even if they fall short of a Big 12 championship. But losses to West Virginia and in the conference title game would knock Tech out of the playoff.

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6. Mississippi (10-1)

Best win: at Oklahoma (34-26), Oct. 25.

Loss: at Georgia (43-35), Oct. 18.

Playoff chances: 99%. Saturday’s unimpressive 34-24 win at home against Florida was still enough to almost ensure an at-large playoff berth regardless of what happens in the Egg Bowl.

7. Oregon (9-1)

Best win: at Iowa (18-16), Nov. 8.

Loss: vs. Indiana (30-20), Oct. 11.

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Playoff chances: 60%. The odds are better than not that Oregon is the third Big Ten team in the field. But the Ducks have played two legitimate opponents all season, losing to Indiana and barely beating Iowa. Are they ready for Saturday’s huge matchup at home against Southern California? A loss there would dump Oregon out of the top 10 heading into the finale against Washington.

8. Oklahoma (8-2)

Best win: at Alabama (23-21), Nov. 15.

Losses: vs. Texas (in Dallas) (23-6), Oct. 11; vs. Mississippi (34-26), Oct. 25.

Playoff chances: 55%. Tossed aside after two October losses, the Sooners have rallied into at-large position with wins this month against Tennessee and Alabama. Oklahoma is in with wins at home against Missouri and LSU – and likely with home game in first round – but can’t afford a third defeat.

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9. Alabama (9-2)

Best win: at Georgia (24-21), Sept. 27.

Losses: at Florida State (31-17), Aug. 30; vs. Oklahoma (23-21), Nov. 15.

Playoff chances: 75%. Alabama can still lock down a spot in the SEC title game and an at-large berth by beating Auburn. But a loss in the Iron Bowl will knock the Tide out of the mix.

10. Notre Dame (9-2)

Best win: vs. Southern California (34-24), Oct. 18.

Loss: at Miami (27-24), Aug. 31; vs. Texas A&M (41-40), Sept. 13.

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Playoff chances: 85%. While they shouldn’t lose to Syracuse or Stanford, dropping one spot in the rankings will make the Irish feel a little more anxious about securing that at-large bid. Falling to No. 10 would move them a little closer to Miami, and it would be bad news for Notre Dame if that head-to-head tiebreaker came into play.

11. Brigham Young (9-1)

Best win: vs. Utah (24-21), Oct. 18.

Loss: at Texas Tech (29-7), Nov. 8.

Playoff chances: 33%. The Cougars’ best chance is via a conference title. But a chaotic finish in the Big Ten or SEC might give the Big 12 a chance at two playoff teams. In that scenario, BYU would need to beat Cincinnati and Central Florida convincingly and then play dramatically better against Texas Tech in the conference title game to crack the top 10.

12. Utah (9-2)

Best win: vs. Cincinnati (45-14), Nov. 1.

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Losses: vs. Texas Tech (34-10), Sept. 20; at Brigham Young (24-21), Oct. 18.

Playoff chances: 10%. Losses to the Red Raiders and BYU will block Utah from the Big 12 title game. Getting an at-large bid is possible but very improbable given the number of teams ahead of the Utes and the fact there are still two teams behind them — the ACC champion and the Group of Five representative — who will be bumped into the bracket with the final rankings.



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How To Watch: Michigan vs Alabama in NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

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How To Watch: Michigan vs Alabama in NCAA Tournament Sweet 16


After taking care of business in the first two rounds, the Michigan Wolverines head to Chicago for a tough, but passable second weekend. An Elite Eight draw of either Iowa State (Kenpom No. 7) or Tennessee (No. 14) makes for an interesting matchup, but up first is the Alabama Crimson Tide, who sits 12th in Kenpom with the No. 3 offense but No. 60 defense.

The Tide rolls into the Sweet Sixteen after crushing Hofstra and a JT Toppin-less Texas Tech, but faces its own star-player absence with the ongoing Aden Holloway saga. Michigan is nearly a double-digit favorite, but like a turbocharged Saint Louis, the Alabama offense can be the stuff of nightmares. Every game from here on out is a battle, though, and all things considered, the bracket is set up just fine for the Wolverines.

Sweet Sixteen: No. 1 Michigan (33-3) vs. No. 4 Alabama (25-9)

Date & Time: Friday, March 27, 7:35 p.m. ET
Location: United Center, Chicago, IL
TV/Streaming: TBS

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These programs have actually not met in basketball since a neutral site Alabama win back in 2009. Of course, there have been a couple notable football encounters over the past 28 months, which makes it five games on the gridiron this century. It is fitting that these squads now meet in the Sweet Sixteen, as they are arguably the top two schools over the past decade when it comes to combined football and basketball success.

Alabama 2PT Defense: 48.2% (44th)

On paper, it looks like the Bama defense might be able to hang with Michigan’s elite interior shooting, but I struggle to believe the raw numbers. The size mismatch in this game will be apparent right away, as Aiden Sherrell is the only real big in the lineup with Charles Bediako no longer eligible (lol). While the Tide gives up a decent number of threes and plenty of assists, jumpers are not the way to go in this one.

There is a very real chance that the Wolverines just hammer the paint and put up ridiculous efficiency numbers. Aday Mara looks like the x-factor here, and if Sherrell gets in any sort of foul trouble, it might just be too much for the defense to handle. This may turn into a track meet (more below), but this game sets up well for Michigan to score whenever it wants down low.

Alabama 3PT Rate: 53.9% (1st)

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With this potential problem in the paint, Nate Oats knows his squad will need to put up big numbers of their own, and like Jalen Milroe rushing the ball himself, the plan is no secret. This is not necessarily the most accurate three-point shooting team in the nation, but the volume figures are substantial. For Alabama to pull off the upset, it must trade threes for twos, and that — unfortunately — is a viable strategy on Friday.

The Wolverines absolutely must close out on all shooters and again entice their opponent to opt for shots inside the arc. Future lottery pick Labaron Philon is the biggest threat, both with his willingness to drive and ability to pass (5.0 APG), but really everyone on the floor is going to be an issue from distance. There have been instances this year where teams just cannot miss from deep, and a repeat of that would be a major concern for Michigan.

Alabama DReb: 67.3% (287th)

The Wolverines’ size advantage should also play a role on the offensive glass, as Alabama has been terrible in defensive rebounding. Though Michigan has fluctuated in its prioritization of grabbing misses, this does feel like the right opportunity to make the most of the offensive possessions with plenty of second-chance points being readily available without a ton of resistance.

Not only does the Tide struggle to clean up the boards, but it also owns takeaway numbers in the bottom-10 of the entire country, while Michigan’s ball security has quietly been very strong to close out the year. This sets up perfectly for a massive offensive output. The pitfalls are the same as always: fluky bounces, careless passes, and an over-reliance on threes. If the Wolverines can stick to their game, the scoreboard is going to be lit up.

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Alabama Adj. Tempo: 73 (4th)

Even more than Saint Louis, Alabama wants to run, and when it does, it wants to chuck up threes. This is going to be such a fascinating game to watch, since obviously Michigan will be more than happy to do that going the other way as well, and the Tide’s absolute commitment to getting down the court is what could lead to all of the aforementioned offensive rebounding opportunities.

With this pace, Bama does not grab a ton of offensive rebounds itself, nor does it get to the line often. It does, however, get blocked A TON, which should be fun for all of the Wolverine bigs. How close this game is really comes down to whether or not Alabama’s threes fall. The Tide will run and will hoist up a ton of attempts; make a hearty amount and an upset is possible, but have a tepid outing and this could be a blowout.



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Longtime coaching friends Dusty May of Michigan and Nate Oats of Alabama to meet in Sweet 16

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Longtime coaching friends Dusty May of Michigan and Nate Oats of Alabama to meet in Sweet 16


CHICAGO — Michigan coach Dusty May remembered when he was an assistant at Eastern Michigan watching 6 a.m. practices at Romulus High near Detroit.

At the time, Nate Oats was coaching boys’ basketball and teaching physical education at the school. The two forged a friendship that’s going strong 20 years later.

From a high school gym to the Sweet 16, May and Oats will be on opposing sides when top-seeded Michigan (33-3) meets fourth-seeded Alabama (25-9) in the NCAA Tournament’s Midwest Region semifinals on Friday.

“To get to where he is now, I don’t think you ever think that,” May said. “You don’t ever anticipate them getting to this level where they’re (at the) top of the profession but you know they’re really, really good because so much has to happen.”

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Oats has led Alabama to a 170-72 record and five trips to the Sweet 16 in seven seasons after a successful run at Buffalo. The Crimson Tide are in the regional semifinals for the fourth year in a row.

Oats has been mentioned as a potential candidate for the North Carolina job, though he insisted he has “absolutely no reason to leave” to leave Alabama. He led the Crimson Tide to the Final Four two years ago and got a new contract during that run. He’s now in talks with the school about another extension.

Oats played at Division III Maranatha Baptist University in his hometown of Watertown, Wisconsin, and began his coaching career as an assistant at his alma mater in the late 1990s.

Michigan head coach Dusty May looks on during the second half against Saint Louis in the second round of the NCAA college basketball tournament, Saturday, March 21, 2026, in Buffalo, N.Y. Credit: AP/Jeffrey T. Barnes

“On March 15, my salary went up $500,000,” Oats said. “I still can’t believe I’m getting paid this much. I’m coaching basketball. Guys, I did this thing free at Maranatha for three years. I got paid $500 out of the Warhawk fund at (Wisconsin-Whitewater) a year for the next two years. I made $4,700 a year for 11 years. … Glorified PE teacher making too much money right now. I’m not going to complain.”

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May has done well for himself, too.

He coached Florida Atlantic for six years and led the school to a surprising Final Four appearance. Michigan has reached the Sweet 16 in each of his two seasons. And if the Wolverines beat Alabama, they’ll set the program record for wins in a season.

“He’s the same guy that I knew as an assistant at Eastern Michigan,” Oats said. “With all the success he’s had, his ego hasn’t gotten any bigger, and I think that speaks a lot to the character of the guy.”

That’s something that stood out to Oats when he was at Romulus. Some recruiters seemed to be using him simply to get to his players. But May wasn’t like that.

“Dusty was one of those guys that was genuine, real, smart, and worked hard. … We got to be very close because we were both young basketball junkies trying to learn every which way possible,” Oats said.

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Through a friend of May’s who worked for the Chicago Bulls at the time, they got to spend five days at the Bulls’ training camp when Scott Skiles was the coach. They remained close after May left Eastern Michigan. He helped Oats get his first Division I job, as an assistant at Buffalo under Bobby Hurley in 2013.

At the time, May was on Mike White’s staff at Louisiana Tech. White’s brother Danny was the AD at Buffalo, and he put in a call when Hurley told him he was planning to hire Oats.

“Danny called Mike and Mike asked me, ‘Hey, this is your friend. Can you put your name on him?’” May said. “I said, ‘Absolutely. He’ll be as good or better than anyone he can hire as an assistant coach at Buffalo.’ It was the same deal when he moved him to the head coach. They’d done a great job recruiting, and that left a major mark on the success of coach Hurley’s teams.”

More recently, Oats has left his mark on Alabama. And May has done the same at Michigan.

“He texted me last night and asked what hotel we were staying at,” Oats said. “I thought we were staying next to him. I didn’t talk to him about our basketball game. I talked to him about other stuff.”

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Gov. Ivey orders flags to half-staff honoring fallen Alabama airmen

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Gov. Ivey orders flags to half-staff honoring fallen Alabama airmen


Governor Kay Ivey on Wednesday issued an updated directive calling for the lowering of all flags to half-staff across the state of Alabama on Monday, March 30, 2026, in honor of three Alabama Airmen who lost their lives in service to their country on March 12, 2026.

Below is Gov. Ivey’s flag-lowering directive.

“I authorize the lowering of flags at the Capitol Complex in Montgomery and statewide on Monday, March 30, 2026, in honor of U.S. military service members stationed in Alabama, who lost their lives on March 12, 2026, during an accident involving their KC-135 Stratotanker aircraft while operating in support of Operation Epic Fury.  These fallen military personnel served in the 99th Air Refueling Squadron of the 117th Air Refueling Wing located at Sumpter Smith Joint Air National Guard Base in Birmingham.

“Major John A. “Alex” Klinner, 33, a resident of Trussville, Alabama and graduate of Auburn University, served as chief of squadron standardization and evaluations. An eight-year Air Force veteran, Maj. Klinner’s awards include the Air Medal with oak leaf cluster, the Aerial Achievement Medal, and the Air and Space Commendation Medal with oak leaf cluster. He is survived by his wife, Libby, and their three young children.

“Major Ariana G. Savino, 31, served as chief of current operations. A native of Washington state, Maj. Savino was a graduate of Central Washington University and Air Force ROTC, with over 300 combat hours. Her awards include the Air Medal and Air Space Commendation Medal.

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“Technical Sergeant Ashley B. Pruitt, 34, served as an assistant flight chief of operations. A native of Kentucky, Tech Sgt. Pruitt received two associate’s degrees from the Community College of the Air Force and had over 900 combat flight hours. She is survived by her husband, Gregory, a young daughter and stepson.

“To honor these brave Airmen who gave their lives in service to our country, I am directing all flags to be lowered from sunrise until sunset on Monday, March 30, 2026, the day of funeral services for Alabama native Major John A. Klinner.”



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