OK, now it’s time to get real.
The first 2 rounds of the NCAA Tournament are annually chock-full of buzzer-beaters and 1-game wonders and upsets and choke-jobs. And boy did we get them all in the 2026 version of March Madness.
But now it’s time to get real.
That first weekend served as a very real reminder of the 1-and-done finality of the NCAA Tournament – where a barely-in squad like Texas stands tall after 3 games in 5 days while a supposed dynasty like Florida didn’t even escape the second round.
Without the mighty Gators, the question at hand is this: Does Alabama have what it takes to represent the SEC all the way to the Final Four?
After 2 games, at least, it would appear the answer is trending toward “yes.” Sure, pulling away from Hofstra in the first round in the Midwest Regional in Tampa looked better scanning the final stats than it did at the 35-minute mark with the Pride trailing by just 5. But the second-round squashing of Texas Tech sent a smidge of shockwave around the country for the ease in which the Crimson Tide advanced to the Sweet 16.
Why? Because after Aden Holloway disappeared into a cloud of his own (alleged) smoke, many would have pegged Alabama as a second-round departure fighting TSA lines on the way back to Tuscaloosa.
Instead, Nate Oats’ squad got better between Friday and Sunday – which isn’t great news for No. 1-seed Michigan. It’s as if it took the Tide those 35 minutes against Hofstra to figure out how to play as an elite team without Holloway and then proceeded to use that knowledge to bludgeon the Red Raiders with 19 3-pointers and a cakewalk victory.
Surviving the Wolverines won’t be a cakewalk. No. 1 seeds aren’t supposed to be easy outs. The 3 non-Florida No. 1s won their second-round games by an average of 26.7 points – with Michigan swarming past ninth-seeded Saint Louis 95-72.
But Alabama could well be uniquely suited to be the team to hand Michigan just its fourth loss of the season when the 2 teams meet Friday in Chicago’s United Center (7:35 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV). For starters, the Crimson Tide test a scoreboard operator even more than the Wolverines – leading the nation at 91.6 points per game (the Wolverines aren’t shabby either at 87.4 ppg) and ranking among the top 10 nationally in efficiency at 1.188 points per possession.
Alabama currently has an 18% chance to beat Michigan in the Sweet 16, per Kalshi:
Alabama has also uniquely turned Holloway’s absence into a positive, in that it has been a showcase for the Tide’s absurd bench depth – especially in the low post where Michigan feasts. Cycling in 7-footer Noah Williamson, Amari Allen, Taylor Bol Bowen and even London Jemison keeps the machine running at near-Mach speed.
And while Labaron Philon Jr. was perhaps the lone ineffective Alabama player against Texas Tech (9 points but with 12 assists), he also can single-handedly take over games – proof of concept coming via both his 29-point effort against Hofstra in the first round and his 35-point barrage against Arkansas on Feb. 18.
There is also a matter of being there before. The Tide are just 2 years removed from their first-ever Final Four appearance, and while only Latrell Wrightsell was on that 2023-24 Tide team that lost to UConn in the national semifinals, the current roster was built on the back of that unit. Michigan, on the other hand, hasn’t been to the Final Four since 2018.
Of course, Michigan isn’t the only team Alabama will have to worry about in the Windy City. The second-seeded Iowa State Cyclones and the sixth-seeded Tennessee Volunteers tussle in the other Midwest semifinal – but the Tide nipped Tennessee in Knoxville just last month and Iowa State simply hasn’t seen the kind of track meet the Tide can produce.
For Alabama to carry the SEC banner to the Final Four, though, taking down the big, bad Wolverines will be the key. That Michigan disdains shot-clock violations almost as much as Alabama actually plays into the Tide’s hands, so the resulting 40-minute sprint is bound to give a double-digit underdog a chance.
Is it a puncher’s chance? Sure. Is it the kind of odds that keep the lights in Vegas twinkling 24/7? Maybe. But survive Michigan, and Alabama could well be the best chance for SEC to represent in the Final Four now that the road to Indianapolis is almost complete.
Here are the latest Final Four odds, via Kalshi:
An APSE national award-winning writer and editor, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. His Twitter handle: @JustDWasson.
