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Alabama vs. San Diego State pick: March Madness predictions, odds, best bets

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Alabama vs. San Diego State pick: March Madness predictions, odds, best bets


If there was any query about Alabama deserving the No. 1 general seed getting into the NCAA Match, these have been answered by two dominant performances from the present title favorites en path to the Candy 16.

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Unsurprisingly, the Crimson Tide are dealing as sizable favorites to advance to the Elite Eight, however they’ll face a tall job towards an underrated San Diego State crew in-built a method that would give Alabama bother on this spot.

Right here’s how we’re betting Friday’s contest, which suggestions off at 6:30 p.m. ET on TBS.

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Alabama vs. San Diego State decide

  • San Diego State +7.5 (-110 BetMGM)

Alabama vs. San Diego State prediction and evaluation

First, let’s make one thing very clear: Alabama is the perfect crew on this match, and it’ll take an impressed effort in a super matchup to beat this crew earlier than the ultimate.

Coming into the Candy 16, the Crimson Tide rank second in KenPom’s adjusted effectivity margin (+28.07) and boast the nation’s third-best scoring margin (+13.1) behind solely Houston and Gonzaga.

Neither of these groups performed in a serious convention like Alabama, which misplaced simply 5 video games all yr regardless of dealing with the Tenth-toughest schedule within the nation.

We’ve seen that dominance translate to the match: the Crimson Tide received their first two matchups by 20-plus factors, even with celebrity scorer Brandon Miller combining for simply 19 factors throughout these two contests.

All of that mentioned, it is a harmful matchup towards San Diego State, which has the kind of tenacious protection and methodical tempo to frustrate Nate Oats’ group.

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Micah Parrish of the San Diego State (proper) celebrates with teammates throughout its win over Charleston within the first spherical of the NCAA Match.
Getty Photographs

The Aztecs are some of the unheralded groups on this match, rating 14th in adjusted effectivity after demolishing Furman within the second spherical.

That got here after a powerful first-round win over Charleston that noticed SDSU flex its defensive may within the closing minutes.

That’s actually the important thing to this complete crew: a relentless dedication to protection on each possession with high-level athletes at nearly each spot.

That’s one thing Alabama hasn’t seen since its loss to Tennessee in February – and, relationship again to November, a 15-point loss to UConn.

Unsurprisingly, the Aztecs rank fifth in defensive effectivity and fourth in opponent 3-point proportion (28.7%), although groups are nonetheless making an attempt 40.5% of their pictures from deep.

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It’s a easy however efficient strategy from Brian Dutcher’s group: contest each shot and coax opponents to shoot themselves out of it.

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Thus far, that’s labored to close perfection: every of SDSU’s final 5 opponents have shot worse than 30% from three, with the final three every firing a minimum of 24 makes an attempt from lengthy vary.

All three posted their worst offensive effectivity of the season.

Fittingly, the Crimson Tide try 47.5% of their pictures from deep – eighth-most within the nation and probably the most of any crew within the match – however they’re connecting on simply 34.1% of these pictures.

These numbers are virtually an identical to what we noticed from Charleston and Furman, two high-volume and low-efficiency capturing groups that met their finish towards this tenacious Aztecs protection.

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That’s to say nothing of the tournament-wide capturing woes that we’ve seen, which additionally favors San Diego State on this spot.

If the Aztecs can disrupt Alabama’s breakneck tempo on Friday and drive a excessive quantity of contested jumpers, they’ve sufficient of a bodily benefit inside to maintain this one shut – and even pull off the large upset.

Alabama vs. San Diego State odds (through BetMGM)

  • Alabama -7.5 (-110), moneyline -350
  • San Diego State +7.5 (-110), moneyline +280
  • O/U 137.5 (-110)



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Alabama

Where Alabama Ranks in Polls After Dominating Mercer

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Where Alabama Ranks in Polls After Dominating Mercer


The Alabama Crimson Tide dominated its inferior competition on Saturday, defeating Mercer 52-7 in the second-to-last home game of the year. The result was never in doubt but was the performance enough to move up in the polls?

The Crimson Tide entered the week ranked No. 9 in both the Coaches Poll and the AP Top 25 Poll. No. 6 Tennessee and No. 7 BYU both took losses this week, creating room for Alabama to move up.

The Crimson Tide moved up to No. 7 in the Coaches Poll, the AP Top 25 Poll will be released later on Sunday.

Sunday’s rankings serve as conversation starters, however, the latest edition of the College Football Playoff rankings will be released on Tuesday night. These are the only rankings that will determine who gets in the 12-team CFP.

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(Rank, Team, First-Place Votes, Record, Points)

1. Oregon, 55, 11-0, 1375
2. Ohio State, 9-1, 1316
3. Texas, 9-1, 1263
4. Penn State, 9-1, 1158
5. Indiana, 10-0, 1109
6. Notre Dame, 9-1, 1096
7. Alabama, 8-2, 996
8. Georgia, 8-2, 993
9. Ole Miss, 8-2, 984
10. Miami (FL), 9-1, 847
11. Tennessee, 8-2, 823
12. SM, 9-1, 744
13. Boise State, 9-1, 714
14. Texas A&M, 8-2, 646
15. BYU, 9-1, 633
16. Clemson, 8-2, 569
17. Army, 9-0, 509
18. Colorado, 8-2, 464
19. South Carolina, 7-3, 379
20. Tulane, 9-2, 280
21. Iowa State, 8-2, 268
22. Arizona State, 8-2, 251
23. UNLV, 8-2, 93
24. Memphis, 9-2, 77
25. Kansas State, 7-3, 67

Others Receiving Votes:

Washington State 65, Illinois 56, Missouri 44, Syracuse 18, James Madison 11, Duke 9, Pittsburgh 7, Louisiana 5, Louisville 2, Vanderbilt 1, Sam Houston 1, LSU 1, Colorado State 1.

This story will be updated with the AP Top 25 Poll when it’s released.

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SEC tiebreaker scenarios favor Texas vs. Alabama championship game

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SEC tiebreaker scenarios favor Texas vs. Alabama championship game


Much of the week has been spent pouring over SEC tiebreaker rules and trying to apply them to the season’s remaining regular season games. Before Saturday’s slate of games, one very realistic scenario had an eight-team first place SEC tie going down. Does a five-way tie change much?

Going into today’s action, if every SEC favorite won over the next three weeks and Arkansas beats Missouri, it would be LSU is in the SEC Championship Game vs. the winner of Texas and A&M.

That won’t happen now. LSU laid another huge egg in Gainesville in a 27-16 loss to the Gators. This was LSU’s third loss in a row, third conference loss and fourth loss on the season. The Tigers are out of any consideration for the postseason beyond bowl games.

While LSU’s loss clears up some of the SEC playoff picture, Georgia’s win over Tennessee actually muddles it a little more.

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A Tennessee win would have basically eliminated the Georgia Bulldogs and given the Vols a very clear path to the SEC championship game. Instead, Georgia’s 31-17 win over Tennessee leaves the ‘Dawgs alive for the SEC title game. The Vols join the group with two losses.

ATHENS, GEORGIA – NOVEMBER 16: Head coach Josh Heupel of the Tennessee Volunteers shakes hands with head coach Kirby Smart of the Georgia Bulldogs following the game at Sanford Stadium on November 16, 2024 in Athens, Georgia. Georgia defeated Tennessee 31-17. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

The SEC teams with two losses are Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Alabama. There are two teams with only one SEC loss — Texas and Texas A&M.

Obviously, the Horns and Aggies play each other so it is only possible for one team to end the season with one SEC loss. There could be zero one-loss teams since Texas and A&M each have a conference game to play before facing each other Thanksgiving weekend. (Trap game alert!)

None of the two-loss teams play each other over the next couple of weeks in conference. In fact, Georgia is actually done with its conference schedule.

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Unless there’s a major upset, there would a single one-loss team and five two-loss teams. The two-loss teams will be subject to the SEC tiebreaker rules to produce a champ.

Since Texas is favored in both of its final two games, let’s assume the Longhorns win out and make it to Atlanta. (Obviously, there is much work to do)

SEC tiebreaker rules:

  1. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
  2. Record vs. common conference opponents
  3. Record against the high-place opponent among the tied teams
  4. Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents

SEC common opponents:

There are too many teams to apply head-to-head. For the second tiebreaker, if applied to the five two-loss teams, the records would be Ole Miss (1-0), Alabama (1-1), Tennessee (1-1), Georgia (1-2) and Texas A&M (0-0).

  • Alabama: beat Georgia but lost to Tennessee
  • Georgia: beat Tennessee but lost to Ole Miss and Alabama
  • Ole Miss: beat Georgia
  • Tennessee: beat Alabama but lost to Georgia
  • Texas A&M: hasn’t played any of the other two-loss tied teams

Future SEC Opponents:

  • Alabama: Oklahoma (Away), Auburn (Home)
  • Georgia: Done
  • Ole Miss: Florida (Away), Mississippi State (Home)
  • Tennessee: Vanderbilt (Away)
  • Texas A&M: Auburn (Away), Texas (Home)

There is no round robin or common opponent for all five teams.

Cumulative conference winning percentage:

That means the deciding tiebreaker would be cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents for the five tied teams. Alabama currently leads those percentages.

  1. Alabama (27-26, .509)
  2. Georgia (23-28, .451)
  3. Texas A&M (23-29, .442)
  4. Ole Miss (22-33, .400)
  5. Tennessee (21-32, .396)

Most Likely SEC Championship Matchup:

Under those circumstances, the SEC championship game opponents would be Texas and Alabama.

But the percentages could change. If Mississippi State upsets Mizzou next week it could actually change a lot. And as we’ve seen, upsets do happen. This entire model could be thrown out by next Saturday night.



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Alabama keeps its focus, handles Mercer – WVUA 23

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Alabama keeps its focus, handles Mercer – WVUA 23


Alabama Linebacker Jihaad Campbell (11) celebrates against Mercer at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL on Saturday, Nov 16, 2024.

 

The best thing that can be said about Alabama’s 52-7 win over Mercer is that the Crimson Tide did what fans and media expected it to do.

Alabama rolled to an easy victory, with its starters watching from the sideline for the final quarter of the game.

It’s the type of performance that Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer likely hoped to see following his teams win over then-No. 1 Georgia in September. Instead, the team went on a stretch in which is dropped two of its next three games.

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Alabama seemed far more prepared this time, showing its focus immediately following last week’s road win over then-No. 15 LSU.

“The intensity in practice, it’s not like guys are flying off the wall and things like that, but there’s a focus that they bring and there’s a business-like approach where they know they’ve got to do this,” DeBoer said. “They’ve got to eat right, sleep right, do all those things off the field, take care of their business there and it leads to the success that they’ve had.”

The Crimson Tide scored on its first three offensive possessions and the defense scored its first touchdown of the season to boost Alabama to a 28-0 lead midway through the second quarter. The defense forced turnovers on three of Mercer’s first four possessions first four defensive possessions and now has 12 takeaways in its past four games.

Zabien Browns 68-yard scoop and score in the second quarter broke a nine-game drought by the defense which was finally able to breakthrough. Alabama’s last defensive touchdown came in last season’s win against Tennessee, almost 13 months ago.

“For us to get him in the endzone with that long return it was something that was exciting for the whole team because they’ve gotten the takeaways, we just haven’t ended up with one in the endzone like that. I love the mindset, again, just going back to what the defense is doing, they’re attacking. Three and out is what they’re shooting for, but right now, the position they’re putting our offense in, getting points on the board now too, it’s really good.”

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Alabama’s offense also took care of business, scoring points in five of its first six possessions of the game. One of those scores was a 44-yard touchdown catch by senior tight end Robbie Outz, his first score of the season and his second touchdown of his college career.

After the game, DeBoer referred to Outz as a “swiss-army knife” type player that often does the dirty work that can be overlooked by the average fan but is essential for the overall success of the offense.

“For Robbie to haul one in, that was really exciting for our guys, exciting for him. I love to see it,” DeBoer said. “He got a chance as a senior to talk to the team last night. You can just tell the love our team has for him, how much they appreciate the effort that he brings, each and every day, not just each and every week, but he’s got a mindset, a toughness about him that just exudes what Alabama football is all about.”

The Crimson Tide collected 508 yards of total offense in the win, it’s third game with more than 500 yards of offense this season.

Alabama (8-2, 4-2 SEC) will travel to Oklahoma (5-5, 1-5 SEC) next Saturday before finishing the regular season at home against Auburn in the Iron Bowl on Saturday, Nov. 30.

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Next weeks game in Norman, Okla. is set for 6:30 PM CST on ABC.

 





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