Science
Trump Has Cut Science Funding to Its Lowest Level in Decades
10-year average
$2 billion
National Science Foundation grant funding through May 21
The National Science Foundation, which funds much of the fundamental scientific research at American universities, is awarding new grants at the slowest pace in at least 35 years.
The funding decreases touch virtually every area of science — extending far beyond the diversity programs and other “woke” targets that the Trump administration says it wants to cut.
Grants funded by the National Science Foundation through May 21 ↓ 51%
Math, physics and chemistry
$432m
That means less support for early-stage research that underpins future technological advancements — and American competitiveness — in areas like computer science and engineering; physics and chemistry; climate science and weather forecasting; and materials and manufacturing innovations.
It also means less money for undergraduate and graduate students, postdoctoral researchers and early-career professors — potentially disrupting the nation’s future scientific work force.
Economists have warned that cutting federal funding for scientific research could, in the long run, damage the U.S. economy by an amount equivalent to a major recession.
“These cuts are the height of self-inflicted harm,” said Robert Atkinson, the president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a nonpartisan science and technology policy research institute. The foundation has argued that China probably already conducts more research and development than the United States.
“If they succeed in these cuts, the result will be slower economic growth, less innovation and new tech startups, and even more diminished competitiveness vis-à-vis China,” he added.
The lag in this year’s funding, more than $1 billion below the 10-year average, is for new research grants, but the Trump administration has gone further. It has also terminated more than 1,600 active grants for existing research projects, together worth roughly $1.5 billion (of which at least 40 percent has already been spent).
And it wants to eliminate nearly $5 billion of the agency’s $9 billion budget for next year, cutting spending on “climate; clean energy; woke social, behavioral and economic sciences,” and diversity, equity and inclusion programs.
Among the in-progress grants that have been terminated, those focused on education in science, technology, engineering and mathematics, or STEM, accounted for the vast majority of the canceled funding. Many of these grants focused on broadening participation in science and engineering among underrepresented student groups.
Canceled funding from in-progress grants
STEM education
-$656 mil.
Math, physics, chem.
-$61 mil.
Geosciences
-$53 mil.
Computer science
-$47 mil.
Social sciences
-$46 mil.
Technology
-$38 mil.
Engineering
-$36 mil.
Biology
-$28 mil.
But in contrast with the canceled grants, the slowdown in issuing new grants is broader, representing an across-the-board hit to American science.
Decline in new grant funding in 2025
Math, physics, chem.
-$289 mil.
STEM education
-$223 mil.
Biology
-$156 mil.
Engineering
-$127 mil.
Geosciences
-$101 mil.
Computer science
-$85 mil.
Technology
-$18 mil.
Social sciences
-$16 mil.
The N.S.F. said in a statement that while it will focus on the Trump administration’s priorities — like artificial intelligence, quantum information science, biotechnology and nuclear energy — it remains “committed to awarding grants and funding all areas of science and engineering.”
Yet the data shows the agency’s funding of new grants at its lowest level since at least 1990, around when the N.S.F. expanded into its modern structure. The funding has slowed even further since April 30, when agency employees were told to stop awarding funds entirely, according to an email reviewed by The New York Times.
Cumulative grant funding by the National Science Foundation, 1990-2025
Representative Zoe Lofgren of California, the top Democrat on the House science committee, said the Trump administration was denying funding that had already been approved by Congress.
“What they’re doing is not only illegal, but it’s also very damaging to the science enterprise and, ultimately, to the economy of the United States,” she said.
The N.S.F. has said it is canceling awards that are not in line with its priorities, including those focused on D.E.I., environmental justice, misinformation and disinformation. The cancellations have been cheered by Senator Ted Cruz, Republican of Texas, who in February published a list identifying more than a third of the grants that have been terminated.
“My Commerce Committee investigation exposed how the Biden administration corrupted the N.S.F. grantmaking process with a divisive fixation on identity politics,” Mr. Cruz said in a statement. “This kind of politicization erodes public trust in science. The N.S.F. must spend taxpayer dollars responsibly and prioritize objectivity and scientific rigor.”
House Democrats on the science committee have said the cancellations themselves are “based on hard-right political ideology and not scientific or research expertise,” and have noted flaws in Mr. Cruz’s report, like associating the term “biodiversity” with D.E.I.
N.S.F. officials interviewed for this article said many grants that have already gone through the agency’s rigorous review process and were recommended for funding have been in limbo for months. After the April 30 email freezing new awards, which was first reported by Nature, another email on May 13 allowed for some new funding but kept a freeze in place for higher education institutions.
A spokesman for the N.S.F. said it was still “making awards to higher education institutions.”
Either way, the N.S.F.’s directorate for STEM education has had one of the steepest shortfalls in new grants. Its award funding has declined by around 80 percent this year.
Funding through May 21 for …
STEM education ↓ 80%
Undergrad. education
$135m
Equity for excellence in STEM $46m
Research on learning
$77m
The N.S.F. says that it directly supported over 350,000 researchers, teachers and students last year alone. It supports over 20,000 graduate students, more than any other federal agency except the National Institutes of Health, which funds medical research and has also awarded far fewer grants this year.
Within its education branch, the N.S.F. has moved to eliminate the division of equity for excellence in STEM, which promotes D.E.I. and supports students who are underrepresented in science and engineering. The closure has been put on hold by a court order.
The N.S.F.’s division of graduate education, which funds graduate student research, typically approves $21 million in grants by this point of the year, but has awarded none so far. It announced 1,000 graduate research fellowships this year, down from over 2,000 in prior years, as reported last month by Nature.
Ms. Lofgren said these education programs are required by law and were adopted with bipartisan support.
“You can’t have science without scientists,” she said.
Here’s how the shortfall in grant awards this year has affected other areas of science:
Math, physics and chemistry ↓ 67%
N.S.F. grant funding for core scientific disciplines like math, physics, chemistry and material sciences has dropped by two-thirds this year.
The N.S.F. funds “basic” research in these areas: fundamental or unexpected discoveries that may be decades away from practical applications. That includes research on ultrafast lasers in the 1990s that eventually resulted in bladeless LASIK eye surgery, or radar technology in the 1960s that revolutionized weather prediction three decades later.
Curiosity-driven research lays the foundation for private sector investments and leads to breakthroughs that can be commercialized, said Deborah Wince-Smith, the president of the Council on Competitiveness, a nonpartisan organization composed of chief executives, university presidents and heads of national laboratories.
The N.S.F. has also funded major astronomical observatories that have made groundbreaking discoveries such as capturing the first images of black holes or detecting gravitational waves.
In 2023, the N.S.F. funded half of all federally supported basic research in math and statistics in American colleges. So far this year, math and statistics grant funding is lagging behind previous years by 72 percent.
Funding for physics grants this year has fallen by 85 percent, and funding for materials research grants has dropped by 63 percent.
Engineering ↓ 57%
N.S.F. grant funding for core engineering disciplines has dropped by 57 percent this year. These divisions fund areas like robotics, manufacturing innovations and semiconductor research.
Funding for grants related to chemical, bioengineering, environmental and transport systems has fallen by 71 percent this year, while funding for grants related to civil and mechanical engineering and manufacturing innovation has fallen by 48 percent.
Biology ↓ 52%
Biological infrastructure
$99m
Most federal funding for biology research comes from the National Institutes of Health, but the N.S.F. also supports the field. Its grant funding for biology is at half of its previous 10-year average. There were fewer funds awarded for research in biotechnology and environmental biology, and less money for the tools, facilities and people that support biological research.
Computer science ↓ 31%
Information & intelligent systems
$68m
Advanced cyberinfrastructure
$39m
Computing foundations
$74m
Computer science divisions that have supported research in topics like artificial intelligence, data science, computer security and emerging computing technologies have awarded fewer funds this year.
But the office of advanced cyberinfrastructure has awarded twice the funding that is typical by this time of year, including a $26 million grant for generative A.I. tools and a $20 million grant to “advance American leadership in artificial intelligence.”
In 2023, the N.S.F. provided 72 percent of federal funds for foundational computer science research at colleges and universities.
The agency provided early funding that led to recent developments in artificial intelligence. For example, the researchers who received the 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics for their work in artificial neural networks — technologies that underlie tools like ChatGPT — received N.S.F. funding in the 1980s, long before their work had widespread applications.
The funds also support the careers of graduate students, a large share of whom eventually work in the technology industry, said Greg Hager, the former head of the N.S.F.’s Computer and Information Science and Engineering Directorate, who resigned from the agency this month.
“It’s going to impact progress today, but it’s going to have profound impacts for years to come,” he said of the reductions in funding for computer science.
Geosciences ↓ 33%
In 2023, the N.S.F. supported over half of all federally funded basic geosciences research in American universities.
This year, the agency has fired workers at the Office of Polar Programs, which coordinates research in the Arctic and the Antarctic. The polar office has awarded 88 percent less money in grants this year.
But the ocean sciences division has awarded more funding than typical this year, including a $39 million grant to establish an office that will manage a deep-sea drilling program and an $18 million grant to Columbia University to support a research vessel.
Social and behavioral sciences ↓ 20%
Social science & economics
$31m
Behavioral & cognitive sciences
$32m
There has been a 96 percent decrease in grant funding for multidisciplinary research, which spans biology, physics and engineering. Previously funded projects have included using cells as sensors to monitor pollutants and diseases in wastewater, creating biodegradable robots, and engineering fungi to recover valuable metals from e-waste.
The behavioral and cognitive sciences division has awarded 30 percent more grant funding this year compared with the past decade’s average — despite the Trump administration’s targeting of “woke social, behavioral and economic sciences.” That included funding research on tracking changes in romantic relationships, how hand gestures can enhance learning and a database that lists the average rents in a neighborhood.
Technology, innovation and partnerships ↓ 17%
Translational impacts
$86m
The CHIPS and Science Act, a bipartisan law enacted during the Biden administration in 2022, created the N.S.F.’s Directorate of Technology, Innovation and Partnerships. Last year it funded projects for agricultural technology in North Dakota, climate resilience in Wyoming and semiconductor assembly in Central Florida.
This branch’s grant funding has decreased by 17 percent, a moderate reduction compared with the decreases in other areas.
Here are all the changes so far:
Changes in N.S.F. grant funding
Directorate
2015-2024 avg. funding
2025 funding
Change
Education
$280 mil.
$56 mil.
-80%
Graduate education
$21 mil.
$0
-100%
Equity for excellence in STEM
$46 mil.
$1 mil.
-97%
Research on learning in formal and informal settings
$77 mil.
$16 mil.
-79%
Undergraduate education
$135 mil.
$39 mil.
-71%
Math, physics and chemistry
$432 mil.
$143 mil.
-67%
Strategic initiatives
$6k
$0
-100%
Physics
$72 mil.
$11 mil.
-85%
Mathematical sciences
$113 mil.
$32 mil.
-72%
Materials research
$118 mil.
$43 mil.
-63%
Chemistry
$103 mil.
$44 mil.
-57%
Astronomical sciences
$26 mil.
$12 mil.
-53%
Engineering
$221 mil.
$94 mil.
-57%
Emerging frontiers in research and innovation
$2 mil.
$42k
-98%
Chemical, bioengineering, environmental and transport systems
$75 mil.
$22 mil.
-71%
Engineering education and centers
$27 mil.
$12 mil.
-56%
Civil, mechanical, and manufacturing innovation
$80 mil.
$42 mil.
-48%
Electrical, communications and cyber systems
$36 mil.
$19 mil.
-48%
Biology
$303 mil.
$147 mil.
-52%
Biological infrastructure
$99 mil.
$32 mil.
-68%
Integrative organismal systems
$88 mil.
$34 mil.
-61%
Environmental biology
$75 mil.
$39 mil.
-49%
Molecular and cellular biosciences
$40 mil.
$37 mil.
-9%
Emerging frontiers
$801k
$5 mil.
+521%
Geosciences
$305 mil.
$204 mil.
-33%
Office of polar programs
$51 mil.
$6 mil.
-88%
Earth sciences
$78 mil.
$16 mil.
-80%
Research, innovation, synergies and education (RISE)
$11 mil.
$6 mil.
-47%
Atmospheric and geospace sciences
$63 mil.
$40 mil.
-36%
Ocean sciences
$103 mil.
$136 mil.
+33%
Computer science
$277 mil.
$192 mil.
-31%
Information & intelligent systems
$68 mil.
$27 mil.
-60%
Computer and network systems
$96 mil.
$42 mil.
-57%
Computing and communication foundations
$74 mil.
$43 mil.
-41%
Office of advanced cyberinfrastructure
$39 mil.
$80 mil.
+102%
Social sciences
$78 mil.
$62 mil.
-20%
National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics
$2 mil.
$0
-100%
Multidisciplinary activities
$11 mil.
$401k
-96%
Social and economic sciences
$31 mil.
$20 mil.
-37%
Behavioral and cognitive sciences
$32 mil.
$42 mil.
+30%
Technology
$110 mil.
$92 mil.
-17%
Technology frontiers
$9k
$0
-100%
Translational impacts
$86 mil.
$44 mil.
-48%
Innovation and technology ecosystems
$24 mil.
$47 mil.
+95%
Other
$65 mil.
$47 mil.
-29%
Total
$2.1 bil.
$1 bil.
-50%
‘Total confusion’
The National Science Foundation has usually awarded half of its funds for the fiscal year by early July. In theory, this year’s funding levels could still catch up to former levels if the agency accelerates its pace of making awards over the summer.
But officials described an agency that has been thrown into chaos as it tries to navigate a new political landscape under President Trump. The agency is in the midst of a major restructuring to eliminate its 37 divisions. It has also conducted layoffs and placed pressure on its workers to resign or retire. (The restructuring and termination of employees has been paused by a court order until Friday.)
Many N.S.F. divisions do not know how much they can spend this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, and this uncertainty may also be contributing to this year’s funding lag.
“There’s total confusion,” said one employee who has worked at the N.S.F. for more than a decade and is involved in determining which grants are recommended for funding. The employee, who did not want to be named out of fear of retaliation for speaking to the news media, said that the N.S.F.’s rigorous review process had been disassembled, and that political mandates had taken precedence over scientific merits when assessing grant proposals.
“There’s confusion on how much money we can spend,” the employee said. “And then there’s confusion because the processes are basically paralyzed.”
About the data
Using the N.S.F.’s awards database, we tabulated the intended award amounts for all projects funded between Jan. 1 and May 21 of each year. The award date is determined by the initial amendment date, which typically precedes the start date of the project. Intended awards reflect the amount that the N.S.F. intends to fund over the entire life of a project, which may extend multiple years beyond the year the project was awarded. All award amounts are inflation-adjusted to March 2025 dollars by using the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index.
Science
Social media users in the Central Valley are freaking out about unusual fog, and what might be in it
A 400-mile blanket of fog has socked in California’s Central Valley for weeks. Scientists and meteorologists say the conditions for such persistent cloud cover are ripe: an early wet season, cold temperatures and a stable, unmoving high pressure system.
But take a stroll through X, Instagram or TikTok, and you’ll see not everyone is so sanguine.
People are reporting that the fog has a strange consistency and that it’s nefariously littered with black and white particles that don’t seem normal. They’re calling it “mysterious” and underscoring the name “radiation” fog, which is the scientific descriptor for such natural fog events — not an indication that they carry radioactive material.
An X user with the handle Wall Street Apes posted a video of a man who said he is from Northern California drawing his finger along fog condensate on the grill of his truck. His finger comes up covered in white.
“What is this s— right here?” the man says as the camera zooms in on his finger. “There’s something in the fog that I can’t explain … Check y’all … y’all crazy … What’s going on? They got asbestos in there.”
Another user, @wesleybrennan87, posted a photo of two airplane contrails crisscrossing the sky through a break in the fog.
“For anyone following the dense Tule (Radiation) fog in the California Valley, it lifted for a moment today, just to see they’ve been pretty active over our heads …” the user posted.
Scientists confirm there is stuff in the fog. But what it is and where it comes from, they say, is disappointingly mundane.
The Central Valley is known to have some of the worst air pollution in the country.
And “fog is highly susceptible to pollutants,” said Peter Weiss-Penzias, a fog researcher at UC Santa Cruz.
Fog “droplets have a lot of surface area and are suspended in the air for quite a long time — days or weeks even — so during that time the water droplets can absorb a disproportionate quantity of gasses and particles, which are otherwise known as pollutants,” he said.
He said while he hasn’t done any analyses of the Central Valley fog during this latest event, it’s not hard to imagine what could be lurking in the droplets.
“It could be a whole alphabet soup of different things. With all the agriculture in this area, industry, automobiles, wood smoke, there’s a whole bunch” of contenders, Weiss-Penzias said.
Reports of the fog becoming a gelatinous goo when left to sit are also not entirely surprising, he said, considering all the airborne biological material — fungal spores, nutrients and algae — floating around that can also adhere to the Velcro-like drops of water.
He said the good news is that while the primary route of exposure for people of this material is inhalation, the fog droplets are relatively big. That means when they are breathed in, they won’t go too deep into the lungs — not like the particulate matter we inhale during sunny, dry days. That stuff can get way down into lung tissue.
The bigger concern is ingestion, as the fog covers plants or open water cisterns, he said.
So make sure you’re washing your vegetables, and anything you leave outside that you might nosh on later.
Dennis Baldocchi, a UC Berkeley fog researcher, agreed with Weiss-Penzias’ assessment, and said the storm system predicted to move in this weekend will likely push the fog out and free the valley of its chilly, dirty shawl.
But, if a high pressure system returns in the coming weeks, he wouldn’t be surprised to see the region encased in fog once again.
Science
Trump administration, Congress move to cut off transgender care for children
The Trump administration and House Republicans advanced measures this week to end gender-affirming care for transgender children and some young adults, drawing outrage and resistance from LGBTQ+ advocacy organizations, families with transgender kids, medical providers and some of California’s liberal leaders.
The latest efforts — which seek to ban such care nationwide, strip funding from hospitals that provide it and punish doctors and parents who perform or support it — follow earlier executive orders from President Trump and work by the Justice Department to rein in such care.
Many hospitals, including in California, have already curtailed such care or shuttered their gender-affirming care programs as a result.
Abigail Jones, a 17-year-old transgender activist from Riverside, called the moves “ridiculous” and dangerous, as such care “saves lives.”
She also called them a purely political act by Republicans intent on making transgender people into a “monster” to rally their base against, and one that is “going to backfire on them because they’re not focusing on what the people want,” such as affordability and lower healthcare costs.
On Wednesday, the House passed a sweeping ban on gender-affirming care for youth that was put forward by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), largely along party lines.
The bill — which faces a tougher road in the U.S. Senate — bars already rare gender-affirming surgeries but also more common treatments such as hormone therapies and puberty blockers for anyone under 18. It also calls for the criminal prosecution of doctors and other healthcare workers who provide such care, and for penalties for parents who facilitate or consent to it being performed on their children.
“Children are not old enough to vote, drive, or get a tattoo and they are certainly not old enough to be chemically castrated or permanently mutilated!!!” Greene posted on X.
“The tide is turning and I’m so grateful that congress is taking measurable steps to end this practice that destroyed my childhood,” posted Chloe Cole, a prominent “detransitioner” who campaigns against gender-affirming care for children, which she received and now regrets.
Queer rights groups denounced the measure as a dangerous threat to medical providers and parents, and one that mischaracterizes legitimate care backed by major U.S. medical associations. They also called it a threat to LGBTQ+ rights more broadly.
“Should this bill become law, doctors could face the threat of prison simply for doing their jobs and providing the care they were trained to deliver. Parents could be criminalized and even imprisoned for supporting their children and ensuring they receive prescribed medication,” said Kelley Robinson, president of the Human Rights Campaign, one of the nation’s leading LGBTQ+ rights groups.
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services are proposing new rules that would ban such care by medical providers that participate in its programs — which includes nearly all U.S. hospitals. The health department said the move is “designed to ensure that the U.S. government will not be in business with organizations that intentionally or unintentionally inflict permanent harm on children.”
The department said officials will propose additional rules to prohibit Medicaid or federal Children’s Health Insurance Program funding from being used for gender-affirming care for children or for young adults under the age of 19, and that its Office of Civil Rights would be proposing a rule to exclude gender dysphoria as a covered disability.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration, meanwhile, issued warning letters to manufacturers of certain medical devices, including breast binders, that marketing their products to transgender youth is illegal.
“Under my leadership, and answering President Trump’s call to action, the federal government will do everything in its power to stop unsafe, irreversible practices that put our children at risk,” Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said in a statement. “Our children deserve better — and we are delivering on that promise.”
The proposed rule changes are subject to public comment, and the Human Rights Campaign and other LGBTQ+ organizations, including the Los Angeles LGBT Center, urged their supporters to voice their opposition.
Joe Hollendoner, the center’s chief executive, said the proposed changes “cruelly target transgender youth” and will “destabilize safety-net hospitals” and other critical care providers.
“Hospitals should never be forced to choose between providing lifesaving care to transgender young people and delivering critical services like cancer treatment to other patients,” Hollendoner said. “Yet this is exactly the division and harm these rules are designed to create.”
Hollendoner noted that California hospitals such as Children’s Hospital Los Angeles have already curtailed their gender-affirming services in the face of earlier threats from the Trump administration, and thousands of transgender youth have already lost access to care.
Gov. Gavin Newsom issued a statement contrasting the Trump administration’s moves with California’s new partnership with The Trevor Project, to improve training for the state’s 988 crisis and suicide hotline for vulnerable youth, including LGBTQ+ kids at disproportionately high risk of suicide and mental health issues.
“As the Trump administration abandons the well-being of LGBTQ youth, California is putting more resources toward providing vulnerable kids with the mental health support they deserve,” Newsom said.
California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta’s office is already suing the Trump administration for its efforts to curtail gender-affirming care and target providers of such care in California, where it is protected and supported by state law. His office has also resisted Trump administration efforts to roll back other transgender rights, including in youth sports.
On Thursday, Bonta said the proposed rules were “the Trump Administration’s latest attempt to strip Americans of the care they need to live as their authentic selves.” He also said they are “unlawful,” and that his office will fight them.
“If the Trump Administration puts forth final rules similar to these proposals, we stand ready to use every tool in our toolbox to prevent them from ever going into effect,” Bonta said — adding that “medically necessary gender-affirming care remains protected by California law.”
Arne Johnson, a Bay Area father of a transgender child who helps run a group of similar families called Rainbow Families Action, said there has been “a lot of hate spewed” toward them in recent days, but they are focused on fighting back — and asking hospital networks to “not panic and shut down care” based on proposed rules that have not been finalized.
Johnson said Republicans and Trump administration officials are “weirdly obsessed” with transgender kids’ bodies, are “breaking the trust between us and our doctors,” and are putting politics in between families and their healthcare providers in dangerous ways.
He said parents of transgender kids are “used to being hurt and upset and sad and worried about their kids, and also doing everything in their power to make sure that nothing bad happens to them,” and aren’t about to stop fighting now.
But resisting such medical interference isn’t just about gender-affirming care. Next it could be over vaccines being blocked for kids, he said — which should get all parents upset and vocal.
“If our kids don’t get care, they’re coming for your kids next,” Johnson said. “Pretty soon all of us are going to be going into hospital rooms wondering whether that doctor across from us can be trusted to give our kid the best care — or if their hands are going to be tied.”
Science
His computer simulations help communities survive disasters. Can they design a Palisades that never burns?
In what used to be a dry cleaner’s on Sunset Boulevard, Robert Lempert listened, hands clasped behind his back, as his neighbors finally took a moment to step away from recovery’s endless stream of paperwork, permits, bills and bureaucracy to, instead, envision a fire-resilient Pacific Palisades in 2035.
As a researcher at RAND, Lempert has spent decades studying how communities, corporations and governments can use computer simulations to understand complex problems with huge uncertainties — from how an Alaska town can better warn its residents about landslides to how climate change is worsening disasters and what strategies the United Nations can support to address them.
In January, one such complex problem ran straight through his neighborhood and burned down his house.
As Lempert and his wife process their own trauma forged by flames, Lempert has become fixated on capturing the flickers of insights from fellow survivors and, hopefully, eventually, transforming them into computer programs that could help the community rebuild the Palisades into a global leader in wildfire resilience.
“Otherwise, we won’t end up with a functional community that anybody wants to — or can — live in,” he said. “You can spin out all sorts of disaster scenarios” for the Pacific Palisades of 2035. If the community fails to confront them in rebuilding, “you make them a hell of a lot more likely.”
Lempert doesn’t see a mass exodus from high-fire-hazard areas as a viable solution. Out of the more than 12 million buildings the climate risk modeling company First Street studies in California, 4 in 10 have at least a 5% chance of facing a wildfire in the next 30 years. (Out of the nearly 10,000 buildings First Street studies in the Palisades, 82% carry that level of risk.) And the areas without significant fire risk have their own environmental challenges: flooding, earthquakes, landslides, hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts. Learning to live with these risks, consequently, is part of the practice of living in California — and really, in most of the places humans have settled on Earth.
After two of the most destructive fires in the state’s history, The Times takes a critical look at the past year and the steps taken — or not taken — to prevent this from happening again in all future fires.
So, Lempert has taken to the modus operandi he helped develop at RAND:
Identify the problem. In this case, living in Pacific Palisades carries a nonzero risk you lose your house or life to fire.
Define the goals. Perhaps it is that, in the next fire, the Palisades doesn’t lose any homes or lives (and, ideally, accomplishes this without spending billions).
Then, the real work: Code up a bunch of proposed solutions from all of the groups with wildly disparate views on how the system (i.e., Southern California wildfires) works.
Stress-test those solutions against a wide range of environmental conditions in the computer. Extreme winds, downed communication systems, closed evacuation routes — the list goes on.
Finally, sit back, and see what insights the computer spits out.
It’s easy enough to agree on the problem, goals and environmental factors. For the proposed solutions, Lempert set out to collect data.
Poster paper with residents’ handwritten ideas now fills the walls of the former dry cleaner’s, now the headquarters of the grassroots organization Palisades Recovery Coalition. It’s through these “visioning charrettes” that Lempert hopes his community can develop a magic solution capable of beating the computer’s trials.
Lempert holds a photo of his home as it looked before it was destroyed by the Palisades fire.
The streets could be lined with next-generation homes of concrete and steel where even the tiniest gaps are meticulously sealed up to keep embers from breaching the exterior. Each home could be equipped with rain-capture cisterns, hooked up to a neighborhood-wide system of sensors and autonomous fire hoses that intelligently target blazes in real time. One or two shiny new fire stations — maybe even serving as full-blown fire shelters for residents, equipped with food and oxygen to combat the smoke — might sit atop one of the neighborhood’s main thoroughfares, Palisades Drive. The street, formerly a bottleneck during evacuations, might now have a dedicated emergency lane.
Every year, the community could practice a Palisades-wide evacuation drill so the procedures are fresh in the mind. Community brigades might even train with the local fire departments so, during emergencies, they can effectively put out spot fires and ensure their elderly neighbors get out safely.
Lempert, who now lives in a Santa Monica apartment with his wife, doesn’t entertain speculation about whether the Palisades will ever reach this optimistic vision — even though his own decision to move back someday, in part, hinges on the answer.
Right now, all that matters is that change is possible.
He pointed to an anecdote he heard once from the fire historian Stephen Pyne: American cities used to burn down — from within — all the time in the 19th century. Portland, Maine, burned in 1866 thanks to a Fourth of July firecracker. Chicago in 1871, after a blaze somehow broke out in a barn. Boston the following year, this time starting in a warehouse basement. Eventually, we got fed up with our cities burning down, so we created professional fire departments, stopped building downtowns out of wood and bolstered public water systems with larger water mains and standardized fire hydrants. Then, it stopped happening.
Now we face a new fire threat — this time, from the outside. Maybe we’re fed up enough to do something about it.
“Cities shouldn’t burn down,” Lempert said with a chuckle, amused by the simplicity of his own words. “So let’s just design them so they don’t.”
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Maine4 days agoElementary-aged student killed in school bus crash in southern Maine
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Maryland6 days agoFrigid temperatures to start the week in Maryland
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Technology1 week agoThe Game Awards are losing their luster
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South Dakota7 days agoNature: Snow in South Dakota
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New Mexico4 days agoFamily clarifies why they believe missing New Mexico man is dead
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World1 week agoCoalition of the Willing calls for transatlantic unity for Ukraine