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Too expensive, too slow: NASA asks for help with JPL's Mars Sample Return mission

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Too expensive, too slow: NASA asks for help with JPL's Mars Sample Return mission

After months of turmoil over the future of a vaunted mission to bring samples of the Red Planet back to Earth, NASA has its verdict on Mars Sample Return.

The space agency is “committed” to bringing those rocks back from Mars, Administrator Bill Nelson said Monday, but will have to do it with way less money and in far less time than currently designed.

And how exactly is NASA going to pull that off? Right now it has no idea — and it’s looking for someone who does.

“I have asked our folks to reach out with a request for information to industry, to [the Jet Propulsion Laboratory] and to all NASA centers, and to report back this fall an alternate plan that will get [the samples] back quicker and cheaper,” Nelson said in a press conference at NASA headquarters.

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His comments came in response to an independent review commissioned by NASA last year that declared there was “near zero probability” of Mars Sample Return making its proposed 2028 launch date, and “no credible” way to fulfill the mission within its current budget.

Pulling off the mission as designed would likely cost up to $11 billion, the review board found, with the samples not reaching Earth until at least 2040.

“The bottom line is that $11 billion is too expensive, and not returning samples until 2040 is unacceptably too long,” Nelson said. “It’s the decade of the 2040s that we’re going to be landing astronauts on Mars.”

The announcement comes as something of a blow to JPL, the La Cañada Flintridge institution tasked with managing the mission. JPL has already laid off more than 600 employees and 40 contractors this year after NASA ordered it to reduce spending in anticipation of budget cuts spurred by the challenges of Mars Sample Return.

Proposals go out soon to all NASA centers and the private aerospace sector for “a revised plan that utilizes innovation and proven technology to lower risks, to lower costs and to lower mission complexity so we can return these really precious samples to Earth in the 2030s,” said Nicky Fox, associate administrator, Science Mission Directorate. The due date for proposals is next month, and those selected for further study will get NASA grants this summer.

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This essentially puts JPL in a position of having to compete for its own project.

“Right now if JPL were to come up with the answer, then I’d say JPL is gonna be sitting pretty good,” Nelson said during Monday’s news conference. “But we’re opening this up to everyone because we want to get every new and fresh idea that we can.”

NASA’s decision to outsource a solution to the Mars Sample Return problem frustrated some Mars scientists.

“What I expected is for NASA to step up and say, ‘These things are hard and we choose to do them,’ ” said Bethany L. Ehlmann, a planetary scientist at Caltech. “That is the leadership required to be the nation leading the world in space exploration.”

A joint project with the European Space Agency, Mars Sample Return would deliver rocks, rubble and dust that have already been gathered and sealed into tubes by the Perseverance rover.

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The current design relies on a lander that would retrieve those tubes from the Red Planet’s Jezero Crater and use a small rocket to ferry them into Martian orbit, where they would rendezvous with a spacecraft that would make the journey back to Earth. The rocket would touch down on Earth roughly five years after the orbiter’s launch.

The ultimate goal is to comb the samples for evidence that life has ever existed on Mars, and to help NASA plan for future crewed missions, Nelson said.

In the most recent planetary science decadal survey, a report prepared for NASA every 10 years by the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, planetary scientists named the Mars Sample Return mission as the “highest scientific priority of NASA’s robotic exploration efforts this decade” and argued that the program should be completed “as soon as is practicably possible with no increase or decrease in its current scope.”

But the authors cautioned that the ambitious mission shouldn’t come at the cost of other planetary science, suggesting a roughly $5-billion to $7-billion cap.

“Mars Sample Return is of fundamental strategic importance to NASA, U.S. leadership in planetary science, and international cooperation and should be completed as rapidly as possible,” the report stated. “However, its cost should not be allowed to undermine the long-term programmatic balance of the planetary portfolio.”

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The agency is committing to keeping the mission within that recommended budget, Nelson said. Allowing Mars Sample Return’s costs to reach the $8 billion to $11 billion the review board estimated would require NASA “to cannibalize other programs, other science programs, and there are so many that are absolutely important,” Nelson said.

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Los Angeles could end COVID vaccination rule for city employees

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Los Angeles could end COVID vaccination rule for city employees

Los Angeles could soon end its requirement for city employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

City officials are recommending that the Los Angeles City Council halt the requirement as soon as early June, according to a newly released report. The COVID vaccination rule was first approved by city leaders nearly three years ago as public health officials urged vaccination to protect people from the coronavirus.

In a report, City Administrative Officer Matt Szabo noted that other local government agencies — including the cities of Long Beach and San Diego and Los Angeles County — had stopped requiring COVID vaccination as a condition of employment. Szabo said L.A. employee groups had not opposed ending the requirement.

The L.A. ordinance defined “fully vaccinated” as workers having received either one dose of a single shot vaccine, such as the Johnson & Johnson shot, or both doses of a vaccine that required two shots, such as the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines, but said the definition “may be expanded” if health officials required boosters. Under the city ordinance, workers could seek an exemption if they had “a medical condition or restriction or sincerely held religious beliefs.”

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If city leaders approve ending the requirements, employees who resigned or were terminated because of the vaccination rule may be eligible to be rehired in the same positions as before.

Eighty-six city workers were terminated under the rule, Szabo said; it is unclear how many employees resigned over the COVID vaccination requirement because they do not have to report their reasons.

Los Angeles has faced numerous lawsuits over its COVID vaccination rule. In one of the latest suits, filed last week in federal court, a woman formerly employed as a city accountant said she was denied a religious exemption from the vaccination requirement and ultimately discharged from her position. She accused the city of discrimination, saying it had ignored its policy of “accommodating sincerely held religious beliefs.”

The move to halt the vaccination requirements comes as the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has seen a slight uptick in COVID cases, although they cautioned that it was too soon to say if it would become a sustained increase.

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Are pet dogs and cats the weak link in bird flu surveillance?

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Are pet dogs and cats the weak link in bird flu surveillance?

Some epidemiologists, food safety experts and veterinarians worry that pets could provide a potential springboard for H5N1 bird flu to evolve into a human threat. They are warning pet owners against feeding their animals raw food.

(Circle Creative Studio/Getty Images)

When researchers talk about their biggest bird flu fears, one that typically comes up involves an animal — like a pig — becoming simultaneously infected with an avian and a human flu. This creature, now a viral mixing vessel, provides the medium for a superbug to develop — one that takes the killer genes from the bird flu and combines it with the human variety’s knack for easy infection.

So far, domestic poultry and dairy cows have proved to be imperfect vessels. So too have the more than 48 other mammal species that have become infected by eating infected birds and then died.

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But researchers say there is one population of animal floating under the radar: Pets. The risk may be low, but the opportunities for transmission are abundant.

“I think companion animals definitely need to be in the picture,” said Jane Sykes, professor of medicine and epidemiology at UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, describing the viewpoint that diseases such as H5N1 should be viewed from a human, animal and ecosystem lens. None operates in isolation.

She pointed to our furry friends’ penchant for eating dead things, other animals’ poop and — in the case of cats — wild birds. Add to that our primate compulsion to touch, kiss and caress these animals that live in our homes (and sleep on some of our beds), and you’ve got a situation in which germs could be swapped and mingled.

Now consider the sheer number of companion animals and people in the U.S.

“Two-thirds of households have a dog or a cat,” said Jane Sykes, a professor of small animal medicine at the UC Davis veterinary school. “That’s a lot of companion animals. There’s actually more … in this country than there are people in Australia and the U.K. combined.”

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She also pointed to new research showing H5N1 antibodies in a group of Washington state hunting dogs trained to retrieve waterfowl, a carrier of the disease.

Ian Redmond, a U.K.-based biologist and head of conservation for Ecoflix — a not-for-profit animal-oriented streaming network — agreed.

“It stands to reason that pathogen spillover [when a virus, bacterium or protozoon is transmitted from one species to another] is most likely when different species are in close contact,” he said.

“While traditional companion animals such as dogs, cats and horses have a long history of such close contact with humans, giving thousands of years for us to develop natural immunity to commonly shared pathogens, it is the new situations that carry most risk,” he said, including “raw pet food of uncertain origin.”

It’s an area that epidemiologists, food safety experts and veterinarians are warily watching — a situation akin to the dangers posed by drinking raw milk.

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“There’s at least one animal a day that we see on our service that’s eaten some bizarre raw food diet,” Sykes said. “It did not use to be like that at all.”

Raw pet food typically consists of uncooked meat, bones, fruits and vegetables. The diets are often marketed as “natural” or similar to what animals would eat in the wild.

Calls and inquiries to several raw pet food companies including Jeffrey’s Natural Pet Foods in San Francisco, BJ’s Raw Pet Food in Lancaster, Pa., and Instinct Raw Pet Food in St. Louis went unanswered.

A query to Emma Kumbier, veterinary outreach coordinator at Primal Pet Foods in Fairfield, Calif., also went cold after The Times asked about the kinds of processes or procedures taking place to ensure that pets are not inadvertently exposed to bird flu via infected poultry or cattle.

Jay Van Rein, spokesman for the California Department of Food and Agriculture, said the state’s Meat, Poultry and Egg Safety Branch licenses and inspects businesses that produce raw meat — as well as those that import raw products for pet food manufacturing.

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“Raw meat pet food legally sold in California comes from USDA- or CDFA-inspected facilities,” he said.

Inspections are focused on sanitation, proper product labeling, storage, control of inedible byproducts, pest control and record-keeping. He noted that “cooking meat has been shown to effectively kill bacteria of concern and also has now been shown to kill HPAI [bird flu], so if an owner wants to ensure their pet is not exposed to these pathogens, they should cook the meat.”

Janell Goodwin, a spokeswoman for the Food and Drug Administration, said “all animal food must be safe, wholesome and not misbranded.”

She cited the Preventive Controls for Animal Food requirements, which state that pet food manufacturers are responsible “for ensuring that raw materials and other ingredients” are received only from approved suppliers “whose raw materials are subject to verification activities.”

But with only limited testing of dairy cattle currently taking place, and uncertainty about the spread of the disease in the U.S. cattle industry, determining H5N1 status in cows destined for slaughter is murky at best, experts said.

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Van Rein said that people can take measures to protect their pets — and themselves — by avoiding raw meat. But if they insist on purchasing it for their pets, state health officials said, these precautions can lessen the risk: Keep it frozen or refrigerated until ready to use; thaw under refrigeration or in a microwave just prior to use; keep raw meat and poultry products separate from other foods; wash working surfaces, utensils (including cutting boards and preparation and feeding bowls), hands and any other items that touch raw meat or poultry with hot, soapy water.

Finally, Van Rein said, refrigerate leftovers immediately or discard them.

Veterinarians “really don’t recommend feeding raw food diets to dogs and cats,” Sykes said. “It definitely increases the risk of certain infectious diseases like salmonella and listeriosis.”

She said people can reduce their pets’ exposure to avian flu and other pathogens by keeping cats indoors, keeping dogs on leashes, and possibly avoiding raw pet food.

She said veterinary societies and outreach organizations are urging vets to be on the lookout for signs of H5N1 infection, which could include listlessness, conjunctivitis, blindness, neurological symptoms and/or difficulty breathing.

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She noted that during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, pets were also infected. In response, diagnostic labs added specific tests for COVID into their PCR panels, “and that was a good way to monitor for it in companion animals.”

She said similar diagnostic tests should be made for H5N1.

“I think the sooner we get those types of diagnostic tests, the better it will be in terms of preparedness,” she said.

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Can satellites combat wildfires? Inside the booming 'space race' to fight the flames

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Can satellites combat wildfires? Inside the booming 'space race' to fight the flames

As the threat of wildfire worsens in California and across the world, a growing number of federal agencies, nonprofit organizations and tech companies are racing to deploy new technology that will help combat flames from a whole new vantage point: outer space.

New satellite missions backed by NASA, Google, SpaceX, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection and other groups were announced this week and promise to advance early wildfire detection and help reduce fire damage by monitoring Earth from above.

Collectively, the roster of big names, billionaires, government groups and nongovernmental organizations reflects a considerable interest in using new technology to solve some of humanity’s biggest problems.

Among them is the Earth Fire Alliance, a global nonprofit coalition that recently unveiled its vision for a constellation of more than 50 satellites that will focus specifically on wildfires and their ecological effects.

Known as FireSat, the orbiting surveillance network will scan the globe every 20 minutes in search of wildfire activity — analyzing the landscape across six spectral bands that can spot signs of fires through clouds, smoke, darkness and extreme sunlight, according to the organization. The first three satellites will be launched and operational by 2026.

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“It’s really a game-changer when it comes to resource allocation, because now we have this really high-fidelity picture that’s very, very granular of every single fire, which will ultimately help us better deploy resources in a much more efficient manner,” said Chris Anthony, an Earth Fire Alliance board member and former chief deputy director at Cal Fire.

Earth Fire Alliance’s FireSat Constellation will consist of multiple Muon Halo satellites equipped with state-of-the-art 6-band multispectral infrared (IR) instruments designed to detect and track the impact of wildfires across the planet.

(Muon Space)

Data and images gathered from FireSat will not only inform crews about the location of fires, but also how hot they are and how fast they are moving — helping to guide firefighting, emergency operations and evacuations, Anthony said.

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He noted that during his career battling blazes, he often wondered when California would use its reputation as a global hub of technology and innovation to tackle the issue of wildfires.

“With every large wildfire we have — and the emissions and the carbon that’s released in that smoke — I feel like we’re in this negative feedback loop, which is going to be really hard for us to get out of,” he said. “And I strongly believe that technology and innovation is a core component of our ability to turn this ship in the other direction. I mean, we have to — I don’t think we have a choice.”

Indeed, while California has enjoyed two relatively tame fire seasons thanks to back-to-back wet winters, the threat has not dissipated.

The state has experienced the majority of its largest, deadliest and most destructive blazes since the year 2000, according to data from Cal Fire. The state’s worst wildfire year on record, 2020, saw nearly 4.4 million acres burn and the state’s first million-acre fire, the August Complex.

Experts say wildfires here are expected to grow larger, faster and more frequent in the years ahead due in part to warmer and drier conditions driven by human-caused climate change, as well as vegetation buildup and forest management practices. Similar trends are expected globally, where wildfires are projected to increase 30% by mid-century, according to the United Nations.

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A satellite image shows smoke blanketing the western United States.

Images taken by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 17 (GOES-17) show smoke blanketing portions of the western United States at the time of the Dixie fire, in August 2021.

(Courtesy of NOAA and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service)

Earlier this year, Texas experienced its largest wildfire on record, which burned through more than a million acres, claimed two lives and killed at least 7,000 cattle.

Last year, a relentless procession of fires seared more than 45 million acres across Canada and sent noxious smoke billowing into parts of the United States and all the way to Europe.

“Even though California has been at the epicenter of so many large and destructive fires, it is becoming super clear that the wildfire problem that we have right now isn’t just a California, or a Western states, problem, but it is truly a global issue that we need to resolve,” Anthony said.

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The Earth Fire Alliance’s satellites will join similar missions from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The agencies announced this week that they will soon launch GOES-U, the last in their series of four advanced weather satellites, which provide continuous monitoring of much of the Western Hemisphere.

Roughly the size of a small school bus, the GOES-U satellite was designed and built in partnership with defense contractors Lockheed Martin and L3Harris. It will lift off on June 25 aboard a SpaceX Falcon Heavy Rocket from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, and will provide rapid data for tracking severe storms, including destructive wildfires and their smoke, as well as tropical systems, floods, lightning, snowstorms, dense fogs and other hazards, officials said.

“NOAA’s geostationary satellites are an indispensable tool for protecting the United States and the 1 billion people who live and work in the Americas,” Pam Sullivan, director of NOAA’s Office of Geostationary Earth Orbit Observations, told reporters Wednesday.

GOES-U — which will be renamed GOES-19 once in orbit — will scan the Earth every 10 minutes, and can zoom in to track dangerous storms and hazards with 30-second updates, she said.

It will also carry the first operational compact coronagraph that will help detect space weather for early warnings of disruptions to power grids, communications and navigation systems. Earlier this month, a powerful geomagnetic storm prompted some reports of such impacts.

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The GOES series will play a critical role in hurricane tracking, but perhaps its “biggest game-changing aspect” is its ability to detect wildfires, said Dan Lindsey, a program scientist with NOAA.

“We knew it could detect fires, of course, but it is able to do this in a much more impressive way than we foresaw,” Lindsey said. He said the GOES series has already detected fires the size of a small barn, but the new imaging tools will have four times better spatial resolution on its fire detection band.

“This is important because it allows us to get the word out to emergency responders, firefighters and take care of those fires as quickly as possible,” he said.

Experts are also experimenting with more terrestrial technology to combat conflagrations, including the use of artificial intelligence tools to fight wildfires in California.

One program — a Cal Fire partnership with UC San Diego’s ALERTCalifornia system announced last year — includes more than 1,000 high-definition cameras across the state that use AI to scan the landscape and alert fire crews to burgeoning blazes.

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The system is already proving effective, with its pilot program flagging dozens of fires before 911 calls came in, officials said.

A rendering of a GOES-U satellite orbiting Earth.

A rendering of a GOES-U satellite orbiting Earth.

(NOAA / Lockheed Martin)

Still, space is its own frontier which brings with it its own set of challenges. Rocket launches are known to emit considerable planet-warming carbon dioxide, along with black carbon, methane and other pollutants.

Last fall, a United Nations report also warned of new risks from growing space debris — including roughly 8,300 satellites and 35,000 other tracked objects that are circling the Earth, many of which are used for weather monitoring, early warning systems and global communications.

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Too many orbiting objects run the risk of collision, which could set off a chain reaction that takes those systems offline, the report said.

But new regulations and designs are helping to mitigate some of those risks, said Brian Collins, interim executive director at Earth Fire Alliance. The potentially life- and property-saving benefits of the technology are also part of the balance.

A new economic report published by the alliance and the consulting firm Mandala Partners found that early detection of fires could reduce annual direct fire damage costs by approximately $1.2 billion across the U.S., Australia and Southern Europe. Wildfires in the U.S. alone cost about $11.3 billion annually, with property damage accounting for a large part of that — a trend that has already seen some insurers flee the Golden State and other fire-prone regions.

Indirect costs from fires in the U.S. could be as large as $415 billion annually, including labor productivity losses and health costs, the report found. Almost half — 46% — of the wildfire costs are borne by local communities and businesses.

The Earth Fire Alliance’s suite of satellites will fly at a lower orbit — about 370 miles from Earth compared with NOAA’s 22,000 miles — affording even more granular information in real time, Collins said.

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“We view it as complementary to the big, heavy lift systems that NOAA and NASA produce,” he said. “Knowing where a fire is — on this side of the road or that side of a road, or on one side of a hill or another — is very important to the ecosystem and to the first responders.”

The Earth Fire Alliance raised $12 million in its early round of investments, and is on its way to securing an additional $50 million to $60 million to get the first three satellites into space, he said. The full constellation of 50 or more satellites will require about $300 million to $400 million, some of which will come from partnerships.

The alliance’s supporters include Google.org, the Environmental Defense Fund, the Minderoo Foundation and the Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation.

It made sense to tackle the issue of wildfires through the nonprofit structure, which can move more nimbly than government agencies that are tied to specific funding cycles, Collins said. However, data captured by FireSat can be integrated with NASA and NOAA and will be provided to all users for free.

“The reason for the organization was largely those two things — capturing a budgetary process, and interest and passion that can move a little quicker,” he said. “This was a nice blend to fill a gap of a capability while advancing the mission.”

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Anthony, the former Cal Fire chief, said the FireSat program will not only help guide attacks on ongoing fires, but also provide an added layer of intelligence around prescribed fires, or fires that are intentionally set to clear vegetation and preserve forest health. For instance, the tools can help assess the right time to apply prescribed fire, track the fire’s intensity and integrate it with fire modeling.

The thousand-mile view afforded by the satellites will mark a new era of firefighting tools with a fidelity and resolution that have never been seen before, Anthony added.

“You can understand anything if you can see everything,” he said.

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