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The L.A. wildfires left neighborhoods choking in ash and toxic air. Residents demand answers

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The L.A. wildfires left neighborhoods choking in ash and toxic air. Residents demand answers

Nearly two weeks after the Eaton fire forced Claire Robinson to flee her Altadena home, she returned, donning a white hazmat suit, a respirator and goggles.

The brick chimneys were among the few recognizable features of the quaint three-bedroom 1940 house neighboring Farnsworth Park. Nearly everything else was reduced to ashes.

The scorching heat melted the glass awards her daughter had received for her theater performances, leaving behind deformed globs of crystal. Where her washer and dryer once stood, Robinson found only a blackened metal frame. The flames even managed to consume her cast-iron bathtub.

“The screws were the only thing that didn’t vaporize,” Robinson said after she scoured through the debris. “Everything else is in the air.

“How do we live in this highly toxic environment and make sure that people aren’t being sent back to their homes prematurely?” she said. “Families are just being told, ‘You’re clear to go in.’ They’re calling us and saying, ‘Is it safe?’ I’m like, ‘I don’t know.’”

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Claire Robinson wears a protective suit while inspecting the ruins of her home, which was destroyed in the Eaton fire in Altadena.

(Ryan Ihly)

Tens of thousands of wildfire survivors, including Robinson, have returned to ash-cloaked neighborhoods, even as serious questions about what could be lurking in the debris remain unanswered.

Environmental regulators and public health officials have warned survivors that fire-damaged neighborhoods are probably brimming with toxic chemicals and harmful substances, such as brain-damaging lead and lung-scarring asbestos fibers. Air monitors have measured elevated levels of heavy metals miles downwind of the wildfires.

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However, despite the dire warnings from environmental and health officials, fire officials and law enforcement have decided to reopen large swaths of the evacuation zones before disaster personnel could sweep residential communities for some of the most dangerous materials — such as firearm ammunition, propane tanks, pesticides, paint thinner and car batteries.

The EPA’s hazardous waste cleanup was initially projected to last three months. Earlier this week, President Trump signed a federal directive to shorten the cleanup time to 30 days, prompting EPA officials to increase the number of personnel and teams assigned to the hazmat response, and accelerate the process.

Meanwhile, the Army Corps of Engineers’ debris removal was expected to take 18 months. After Trump’s recent visit to L.A., the Army Corps now says it can be done in a year.

“Once a crew shows up to a property, depending on the complexity of that site, it can take two to ten days to clear the debris from that site,” said Col. Eric Swenson of the Corps. “It just really depends on how fast we get those rights of entry.”

As the monumental work of cleaning up the burned zones begins, Robinson and others say they would like to have clearer guidance and support from government agencies to keep people safe from toxic materials.

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I think it’s unbelievable that people are being told just to go ahead and go back in.

— Claire Robinson, Altadena resident

Robinson said she thinks it’s alarming that many people have been returning to their destroyed homes without wearing protective gear, and have not been adequately warned about the risks as they begin to clean up their contaminated properties.

“We know that it’s all combusted, and it’s all in the air — metals, plastics. I think it’s unbelievable that people are being told just to go ahead and go back in,” Robinson said. “There’s a lack of coordinated, comprehensive expert response.”

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This week, officials from the federal Environmental Protection Agency supervised specialized crews as they began collecting these substances, the first step in what is expected to be a yearlong, multibillion-dollar cleanup and recovery.

As of Wednesday morning, the EPA-led personnel had conducted preliminary surveys of about 2,500 of an estimated 14,500 fire-damaged properties. These crews have been collecting and removing hazardous waste only since Monday. After two days, they had cleared a total of three homes — marking the properties with laminated placards fixed on wooden posts.

A sign indicates EPA contractors have cleared out hazardous materials at a property.

A sign indicates EPA contractors have cleared out hazardous materials at a property in Altadena.

(Christina House / Los Angeles Times)

“As places were being [reopened], we had to take a different strategy,” said Harry Allen, an on-scene coordinator for the EPA. “Most fires, we haven’t had [people returning] this early. Because we’re in L.A., it’s really important that people are able to return. … So in this case, as Cal Fire lifted evacuation zones, we said, ‘Let’s get in there, let’s do recon as quickly as we can in advance of repopulation.’”

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In California, where electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids make up more than one-quarter of car sales, the U.S. EPA has had to exercise extreme caution around an estimated 1,000 fire-damaged, lithium-ion car batteries — perhaps the most ever damaged by a wildfire. These batteries — also used in e-bikes, scooters and small electronics — have been known to ignite, explode or release toxic gases when exposed to extreme heat or fire.

It’s probably going to be the biggest lithium-ion battery removal activity that’s taken place in this country, if not the world.

— Steve Canalog, deputy incident commander for EPA Region 9

“It’s probably going to be the biggest lithium-ion battery removal activity that’s taken place in this country, if not the world,” said Steve Canalog, deputy incident commander for EPA Region 9, who has overseen cleanups of wildfires, floods, earthquakes and chemical spills.

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“Just the high heat can damage the integrity of these battery systems, and they become very unstable and have the risk of spontaneously catching on fire and exploding,” Canalog said. “We have to treat them as unexploded ordnance.”

Because of the risk, EPA personnel transport each battery individually to processing areas. The batteries are often soaked in a saltwater bath to drain the remaining power, and are eventually shredded and taken to recycling facilities.

Hazmat crews typically hear popping and hissing sounds from damaged lithium-ion batteries. In neighborhoods where homes are only a few dozen feet apart, the EPA is telling residents that they should maintain a football-field-length distance from such batteries to avoid injury.

“At the end of the day, you can’t put out a lithium-ion battery fire. It burns so hot and energetically, and you can’t put it out with water or sand or fire blankets. The firefighting strategy is just to let it burn,” Canalog said.

On Wednesday morning, EPA-contracted crews fanned out across a fully razed block in Altadena.

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Personnel wore white hazmat suits, blue latex gloves, black sunglasses and respirators as they navigated around a burned-out panel van and blackened metal bed frame. The workers sifted through the ash and debris left in the footprint of a house on Pine Street with shovels and hand tools until they discovered hazardous waste.

An EPA contractor looks for hazardous materials at a home in Altadena

An EPA contractor looks for hazardous materials at a home in Altadena.

(Christina House / Los Angeles Times)

One worker carefully held the charred remnants of an iPhone between his index finger and thumb, gently placing it into a black trash bag held by a colleague. Soon after, another approached with his hands full.

“These are all batteries,” he said as he dropped about 20 scorched cylinders into a 5-gallon bucket one by one.

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Earlier in the week, another crew extracted a lithium-ion battery from the husk of a Tesla sedan next door. They placed fire-damaged compressed-gas tanks in a row on the front lawn and marked each canister with a white “X,” an indication the fuel had already been burnt.

The EPA has been gathering EV batteries and other hazardous materials found on wrecked properties and moving them to two processing areas: a site near Topanga Beach, where the Santa Monica Mountains meet the Pacific Ocean, for Palisades fire debris; and a site in Lario Park near the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains in unincorporated Irwindale for Altadena waste. There, EPA crews sort the materials before they’re transported to landfills — exactly where is still unknown.

The decision to stockpile hazardous waste in Lario Park sparked swift backlash from residents and public officials. Four nearby cities — Duarte, Azusa, Irwindale and Baldwin Park — have lodged official complaints arguing that transporting hazardous substances 15 miles outside the Eaton fire and into a popular recreation area poses a risk to thousands more.

“The wildfires that have ravaged Los Angeles County must be cleaned up, but I cannot understand how trucking hazardous waste through so many vulnerable communities, and placing near homes and schools, is the best possible option,” said Michael Cao, mayor of Arcadia, another city near the site.

The EPA has not responded to the complaints, but agency officials said its crews have installed liners to prevent toxic chemicals from leaching into soil. They will also conduct soil testing after their work has concluded.

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The EPA’s hazardous waste removal alone is expected to take several months. Once that work is completed, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will step up for the second phase: the removal of ash and debris from properties whose owners have signed up for free cleanup, which is expected to take up to 18 months. Property owners can also opt to hire specialized private contractors if they choose to pay the cost themselves.

Although the smoke and ash from any wildfire are considered harmful, urban wildfires are especially dangerous. The smoke and ash from structures and cars can contain more than a hundred toxic chemicals and poisonous gases, according to state officials. Perhaps the most notable is lead, a heavy metal — which has no safe level of exposure for anyone, and which can permanently stunt the development of children when inhaled or ingested.

During the 2018 Camp fire in Paradise, elevated levels of airborne lead lingered for longer than a day. The metal-infused pollution traveled more than 150 miles and was measured as far away as San Jose and Modesto.

On Jan. 7, as the L.A. County wildfires broke out, air samples measured “highly elevated levels” of lead and arsenic over a dozen miles downwind of the Eaton fire, according to the South Coast Air Quality Management District. The highest concentration was recorded in Vernon, about 13 miles southwest.

Ian Crick and Matt Listiak search for keepsakes and valuables in the ruins

Wearing protective gear, Eaton fire victim Ian Crick and his friend Matt Listiak search for keepsakes and valuables at his burned-out home in Altadena.

(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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Separately, a Los Angeles-based air quality monitor supported by federal funding showed that hourly measurements of airborne lead spiked on Jan. 8 and 9, when smoke from the Eaton fire cast a pall from Altadena to San Pedro.

As the Eaton fire approached the home of Felipe Carrillo, he urged his wife and two children to evacuate while he stayed behind to protect the home with a garden hose fitted with a high-pressure nozzle. For hours, Carrillo said, he tried to defend their home by preemptively spraying water onto the roof and later extinguishing small fires sparked by the onslaught of wind-driven embers.

By the next day, his was one of the few homes left standing on the block. It wasn’t until a week later that it dawned on Carrillo that he should also be worried about the smoke and toxic chemicals he was exposed to in the overnight firefight — which he waged without any protective gear.

“In that moment, it was fight or die,” Carrillo said.

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After things calmed down, he went to see a doctor, who monitored his breathing for any signs of fluid buildup.

“They told me, you know, unfortunately, there’s no way of knowing any effects that may linger from the fact that you fought a fire without a mask or anything,” Carrillo said.

Ahead of the recent rainfall, Carrillo returned to the house to put sandbags around the perimeter of his property to keep ash from drifting onto the property. He’s also temporarily moved his family out of Altadena out of worry that his 14-year-old son and 10-year-old daughter could inhale the same toxic chemicals that he may have already been exposed to. In addition to the recent strong winds that have whipped up dust, Carrillo fears the ensuing cleanup will also kick up contaminants.

Army Corps of Engineers officials said they would spray water and mist on wildfire ash and debris to reduce the risk of airborne contaminants during their cleanup, but Carillo remains concerned.

“What about these dust storms that they’re gonna cause?” Carrillo said. “Let’s say my kids are in the backyard playing football and this big bulldozer kicks up a lot of dust and my kids inhale it?”

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Some of the most concerning toxic contamination could be from older buildings. Lead-based paint and asbestos-containing construction materials were commonly used in homes until they were banned in the late 1970s. About 86% of the buildings near the Eaton fire, and 74% near the Palisades fire, were built before 1980, according to Cal Fire.

For Jane Williams, executive director of the nonprofit California Communities Against Toxics, the copious amounts of ash and rubble hearken back to the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center. In the months that followed, first responders and residents were exposed to a hazardous mix of asbestos, silica dust, heavy metals and other dangerous substances.

As the years passed, many of those affected by the devastation at Ground Zero were diagnosed with long-term health issues such as asthma, diminished lung function and other respiratory problems.

Over the course of January 2025, Williams watched in dread as social media videos and news coverage emerged showing Southern California residents whose homes had been destroyed sifting through the rubble unmasked.

This is the disaster after the disaster.

— Jane Williams, executive director of California Communities Against Toxics

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“It’s exactly what happened with the Twin Towers,” Williams said. “This is the disaster after the disaster. Tens of thousands of people will go back to their properties, and most of them will not wear masks.”

At this point, little is known about the contaminants lingering in the wildfire ash in Altadena and Pacific Palisades. The August 2023 fire in Maui similarly incinerated residential communities composed largely of older housing. After that wildfire was quelled, experts found that ash contained a myriad of heavy metals, including lead, arsenic, copper and cobalt.

The L.A. fires have also led to concerns about water contamination. Water districts in Altadena and the Pacific Palisades/Malibu area have issued “do not drink” advisories for some areas. Suppliers that manage these water systems are assessing impacts of the fires, making repairs and testing for contamination.

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According to the State Water Resources Control Board, these advisories “were issued as a precautionary measure until the condition of the system could be determined.” That said, the board’s website also notes that while building materials can contain chemicals that may contaminate water runoff from burned areas, this generally does not affect drinking water supplies, which are protected from exposure as long as infrastructure wasn’t directly damaged.

Completing the extensive cleanup efforts in the burned areas of L.A. will probably take years. In the meantime, residents — not just in the neighborhoods that burned but those nearby too — wonder how to protect themselves.

For example, Garo Manjikian evacuated from his Pasadena home with his wife and three children as the Eaton fire exploded. The family returned to find their house and garden covered in a layer of ash.

They spent days cleaning the house; washing their clothes, bedding and rugs; and throwing away pillows that had absorbed smoke. Manjikian said he hosed ash off the roof and out of the gutters, and power-washed the outside walls. Inside, he used the power washer and a shop vac to clean out ash that had collected in the windowsills.

I decided to just do everything I can myself to remove the ash.

— Garo Manjikian, Pasadena resident

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“I decided to just do everything I can myself to remove the ash,” said Manjikian, who rented three industrial air purifiers and ran them in the house for about a week. “I still don’t for sure know how toxic it still might be in the house, but at this point, there is no more smell of smoke.”

But fine ash continued to float down, coating the house and the yard. Manjikian and his wife have been urging their three sons, the oldest aged 8 and the twins aged 5, not to play outside. And when they do have to leave the house, the boys are getting used to wearing masks again, like they did during the pandemic.

An EPA contractor looks for hazardous materials at a home in Altadena on Wednesday, January 29, 2025.

An EPA contractor looks for hazardous materials at a home in Altadena.

(Christina House / Los Angeles Times)

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Manjikian has heard that some homeowners, schools and businesses have been paying for lab tests out of their own pockets to determine what types of contaminants need to be cleaned up. He said it would be helpful if the results of those tests could be made available for him and others who might have been exposed to hazardous waste.

“If they do the testing and find out there’s toxic material there, that would be good information for the neighboring houses to have, whether it came back positive on the toxic particles or negative,” Manjikian said.

For Robinson, the Altadena resident whose home was destroyed in the Eaton fire, the disaster has brought multiple layers of grief and unanswered questions.

Robinson is the founder of Amigos de los Rios, a nonprofit group, and already knew the importance of wearing protective gear to guard against hazardous materials during river cleanups and park construction projects.

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When she returned to inspect the ruins of her home, as well as the group’s nearby office, which also was destroyed, she and her husband spent about $250 at a hardware store buying two disposable coverall suits, nitrile gloves and leather gloves to go over them, plus multiple packages of goggles, booties and N100 masks.

Robinson said she thinks L.A. County officials should be doing much more to help residents understand the risks and to protect themselves. Residents shouldn’t be left in the dark, she said, about how much danger they might encounter as they sift through the ashes.

“I would expect there to be a much more concerted, organized, comprehensive effort to share information,” she said, and also to provide protective gear for those who can’t afford to buy it.

Robinson is also concerned about the health effects. Recently, she has had difficulty breathing unlike anything she remembers. At times, she feels tightness in her chest, and experiences a fit of coughing and wheezing.

She said it’s crucial that as others return to inspect their devastated neighborhood, they take measures to protect themselves.

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“I’m less concerned about looting,” Robinson said, “than I am about people being exposed to these things and facing short, medium and long-term health impacts.”

Times staff writer David Zahniser contributed to this report.

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Social media users in the Central Valley are freaking out about unusual fog, and what might be in it

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Social media users in the Central Valley are freaking out about unusual fog, and what might be in it

A 400-mile blanket of fog has socked in California’s Central Valley for weeks. Scientists and meteorologists say the conditions for such persistent cloud cover are ripe: an early wet season, cold temperatures and a stable, unmoving high pressure system.

But take a stroll through X, Instagram or TikTok, and you’ll see not everyone is so sanguine.

People are reporting that the fog has a strange consistency and that it’s nefariously littered with black and white particles that don’t seem normal. They’re calling it “mysterious” and underscoring the name “radiation” fog, which is the scientific descriptor for such natural fog events — not an indication that they carry radioactive material.

An X user with the handle Wall Street Apes posted a video of a man who said he is from Northern California drawing his finger along fog condensate on the grill of his truck. His finger comes up covered in white.

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“What is this s— right here?” the man says as the camera zooms in on his finger. “There’s something in the fog that I can’t explain … Check y’all … y’all crazy … What’s going on? They got asbestos in there.”

Another user, @wesleybrennan87, posted a photo of two airplane contrails crisscrossing the sky through a break in the fog.

“For anyone following the dense Tule (Radiation) fog in the California Valley, it lifted for a moment today, just to see they’ve been pretty active over our heads …” the user posted.

Scientists confirm there is stuff in the fog. But what it is and where it comes from, they say, is disappointingly mundane.

The Central Valley is known to have some of the worst air pollution in the country.

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And “fog is highly susceptible to pollutants,” said Peter Weiss-Penzias, a fog researcher at UC Santa Cruz.

Fog “droplets have a lot of surface area and are suspended in the air for quite a long time — days or weeks even — so during that time the water droplets can absorb a disproportionate quantity of gasses and particles, which are otherwise known as pollutants,” he said.

He said while he hasn’t done any analyses of the Central Valley fog during this latest event, it’s not hard to imagine what could be lurking in the droplets.

“It could be a whole alphabet soup of different things. With all the agriculture in this area, industry, automobiles, wood smoke, there’s a whole bunch” of contenders, Weiss-Penzias said.

Reports of the fog becoming a gelatinous goo when left to sit are also not entirely surprising, he said, considering all the airborne biological material — fungal spores, nutrients and algae — floating around that can also adhere to the Velcro-like drops of water.

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He said the good news is that while the primary route of exposure for people of this material is inhalation, the fog droplets are relatively big. That means when they are breathed in, they won’t go too deep into the lungs — not like the particulate matter we inhale during sunny, dry days. That stuff can get way down into lung tissue.

The bigger concern is ingestion, as the fog covers plants or open water cisterns, he said.

So make sure you’re washing your vegetables, and anything you leave outside that you might nosh on later.

Dennis Baldocchi, a UC Berkeley fog researcher, agreed with Weiss-Penzias’ assessment, and said the storm system predicted to move in this weekend will likely push the fog out and free the valley of its chilly, dirty shawl.

But, if a high pressure system returns in the coming weeks, he wouldn’t be surprised to see the region encased in fog once again.

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Trump administration, Congress move to cut off transgender care for children

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Trump administration, Congress move to cut off transgender care for children

The Trump administration and House Republicans advanced measures this week to end gender-affirming care for transgender children and some young adults, drawing outrage and resistance from LGBTQ+ advocacy organizations, families with transgender kids, medical providers and some of California’s liberal leaders.

The latest efforts — which seek to ban such care nationwide, strip funding from hospitals that provide it and punish doctors and parents who perform or support it — follow earlier executive orders from President Trump and work by the Justice Department to rein in such care.

Many hospitals, including in California, have already curtailed such care or shuttered their gender-affirming care programs as a result.

Abigail Jones, a 17-year-old transgender activist from Riverside, called the moves “ridiculous” and dangerous, as such care “saves lives.”

She also called them a purely political act by Republicans intent on making transgender people into a “monster” to rally their base against, and one that is “going to backfire on them because they’re not focusing on what the people want,” such as affordability and lower healthcare costs.

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On Wednesday, the House passed a sweeping ban on gender-affirming care for youth that was put forward by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), largely along party lines.

The bill — which faces a tougher road in the U.S. Senate — bars already rare gender-affirming surgeries but also more common treatments such as hormone therapies and puberty blockers for anyone under 18. It also calls for the criminal prosecution of doctors and other healthcare workers who provide such care, and for penalties for parents who facilitate or consent to it being performed on their children.

“Children are not old enough to vote, drive, or get a tattoo and they are certainly not old enough to be chemically castrated or permanently mutilated!!!” Greene posted on X.

“The tide is turning and I’m so grateful that congress is taking measurable steps to end this practice that destroyed my childhood,” posted Chloe Cole, a prominent “detransitioner” who campaigns against gender-affirming care for children, which she received and now regrets.

Queer rights groups denounced the measure as a dangerous threat to medical providers and parents, and one that mischaracterizes legitimate care backed by major U.S. medical associations. They also called it a threat to LGBTQ+ rights more broadly.

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“Should this bill become law, doctors could face the threat of prison simply for doing their jobs and providing the care they were trained to deliver. Parents could be criminalized and even imprisoned for supporting their children and ensuring they receive prescribed medication,” said Kelley Robinson, president of the Human Rights Campaign, one of the nation’s leading LGBTQ+ rights groups.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services are proposing new rules that would ban such care by medical providers that participate in its programs — which includes nearly all U.S. hospitals. The health department said the move is “designed to ensure that the U.S. government will not be in business with organizations that intentionally or unintentionally inflict permanent harm on children.”

The department said officials will propose additional rules to prohibit Medicaid or federal Children’s Health Insurance Program funding from being used for gender-affirming care for children or for young adults under the age of 19, and that its Office of Civil Rights would be proposing a rule to exclude gender dysphoria as a covered disability.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration, meanwhile, issued warning letters to manufacturers of certain medical devices, including breast binders, that marketing their products to transgender youth is illegal.

“Under my leadership, and answering President Trump’s call to action, the federal government will do everything in its power to stop unsafe, irreversible practices that put our children at risk,” Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said in a statement. “Our children deserve better — and we are delivering on that promise.”

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The proposed rule changes are subject to public comment, and the Human Rights Campaign and other LGBTQ+ organizations, including the Los Angeles LGBT Center, urged their supporters to voice their opposition.

Joe Hollendoner, the center’s chief executive, said the proposed changes “cruelly target transgender youth” and will “destabilize safety-net hospitals” and other critical care providers.

“Hospitals should never be forced to choose between providing lifesaving care to transgender young people and delivering critical services like cancer treatment to other patients,” Hollendoner said. “Yet this is exactly the division and harm these rules are designed to create.”

Hollendoner noted that California hospitals such as Children’s Hospital Los Angeles have already curtailed their gender-affirming services in the face of earlier threats from the Trump administration, and thousands of transgender youth have already lost access to care.

Gov. Gavin Newsom issued a statement contrasting the Trump administration’s moves with California’s new partnership with The Trevor Project, to improve training for the state’s 988 crisis and suicide hotline for vulnerable youth, including LGBTQ+ kids at disproportionately high risk of suicide and mental health issues.

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“As the Trump administration abandons the well-being of LGBTQ youth, California is putting more resources toward providing vulnerable kids with the mental health support they deserve,” Newsom said.

California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta’s office is already suing the Trump administration for its efforts to curtail gender-affirming care and target providers of such care in California, where it is protected and supported by state law. His office has also resisted Trump administration efforts to roll back other transgender rights, including in youth sports.

On Thursday, Bonta said the proposed rules were “the Trump Administration’s latest attempt to strip Americans of the care they need to live as their authentic selves.” He also said they are “unlawful,” and that his office will fight them.

“If the Trump Administration puts forth final rules similar to these proposals, we stand ready to use every tool in our toolbox to prevent them from ever going into effect,” Bonta said — adding that “medically necessary gender-affirming care remains protected by California law.”

Arne Johnson, a Bay Area father of a transgender child who helps run a group of similar families called Rainbow Families Action, said there has been “a lot of hate spewed” toward them in recent days, but they are focused on fighting back — and asking hospital networks to “not panic and shut down care” based on proposed rules that have not been finalized.

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Johnson said Republicans and Trump administration officials are “weirdly obsessed” with transgender kids’ bodies, are “breaking the trust between us and our doctors,” and are putting politics in between families and their healthcare providers in dangerous ways.

He said parents of transgender kids are “used to being hurt and upset and sad and worried about their kids, and also doing everything in their power to make sure that nothing bad happens to them,” and aren’t about to stop fighting now.

But resisting such medical interference isn’t just about gender-affirming care. Next it could be over vaccines being blocked for kids, he said — which should get all parents upset and vocal.

“If our kids don’t get care, they’re coming for your kids next,” Johnson said. “Pretty soon all of us are going to be going into hospital rooms wondering whether that doctor across from us can be trusted to give our kid the best care — or if their hands are going to be tied.”

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His computer simulations help communities survive disasters. Can they design a Palisades that never burns?

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His computer simulations help communities survive disasters. Can they design a Palisades that never burns?

In what used to be a dry cleaner’s on Sunset Boulevard, Robert Lempert listened, hands clasped behind his back, as his neighbors finally took a moment to step away from recovery’s endless stream of paperwork, permits, bills and bureaucracy to, instead, envision a fire-resilient Pacific Palisades in 2035.

As a researcher at RAND, Lempert has spent decades studying how communities, corporations and governments can use computer simulations to understand complex problems with huge uncertainties — from how an Alaska town can better warn its residents about landslides to how climate change is worsening disasters and what strategies the United Nations can support to address them.

In January, one such complex problem ran straight through his neighborhood and burned down his house.

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As Lempert and his wife process their own trauma forged by flames, Lempert has become fixated on capturing the flickers of insights from fellow survivors and, hopefully, eventually, transforming them into computer programs that could help the community rebuild the Palisades into a global leader in wildfire resilience.

“Otherwise, we won’t end up with a functional community that anybody wants to — or can — live in,” he said. “You can spin out all sorts of disaster scenarios” for the Pacific Palisades of 2035. If the community fails to confront them in rebuilding, “you make them a hell of a lot more likely.”

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Lempert doesn’t see a mass exodus from high-fire-hazard areas as a viable solution. Out of the more than 12 million buildings the climate risk modeling company First Street studies in California, 4 in 10 have at least a 5% chance of facing a wildfire in the next 30 years. (Out of the nearly 10,000 buildings First Street studies in the Palisades, 82% carry that level of risk.) And the areas without significant fire risk have their own environmental challenges: flooding, earthquakes, landslides, hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts. Learning to live with these risks, consequently, is part of the practice of living in California — and really, in most of the places humans have settled on Earth.

After The Fires

After two of the most destructive fires in the state’s history, The Times takes a critical look at the past year and the steps taken — or not taken — to prevent this from happening again in all future fires.

So, Lempert has taken to the modus operandi he helped develop at RAND:

Identify the problem. In this case, living in Pacific Palisades carries a nonzero risk you lose your house or life to fire.

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Define the goals. Perhaps it is that, in the next fire, the Palisades doesn’t lose any homes or lives (and, ideally, accomplishes this without spending billions).

Then, the real work: Code up a bunch of proposed solutions from all of the groups with wildly disparate views on how the system (i.e., Southern California wildfires) works.

Stress-test those solutions against a wide range of environmental conditions in the computer. Extreme winds, downed communication systems, closed evacuation routes — the list goes on.

Finally, sit back, and see what insights the computer spits out.

It’s easy enough to agree on the problem, goals and environmental factors. For the proposed solutions, Lempert set out to collect data.

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Poster paper with residents’ handwritten ideas now fills the walls of the former dry cleaner’s, now the headquarters of the grassroots organization Palisades Recovery Coalition. It’s through these “visioning charrettes” that Lempert hopes his community can develop a magic solution capable of beating the computer’s trials.

Robert Lempert holds a photo of his home before it was destroyed by the Palisades fire.

Lempert holds a photo of his home as it looked before it was destroyed by the Palisades fire.

The streets could be lined with next-generation homes of concrete and steel where even the tiniest gaps are meticulously sealed up to keep embers from breaching the exterior. Each home could be equipped with rain-capture cisterns, hooked up to a neighborhood-wide system of sensors and autonomous fire hoses that intelligently target blazes in real time. One or two shiny new fire stations — maybe even serving as full-blown fire shelters for residents, equipped with food and oxygen to combat the smoke — might sit atop one of the neighborhood’s main thoroughfares, Palisades Drive. The street, formerly a bottleneck during evacuations, might now have a dedicated emergency lane.

Every year, the community could practice a Palisades-wide evacuation drill so the procedures are fresh in the mind. Community brigades might even train with the local fire departments so, during emergencies, they can effectively put out spot fires and ensure their elderly neighbors get out safely.

Lempert, who now lives in a Santa Monica apartment with his wife, doesn’t entertain speculation about whether the Palisades will ever reach this optimistic vision — even though his own decision to move back someday, in part, hinges on the answer.

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Right now, all that matters is that change is possible.

He pointed to an anecdote he heard once from the fire historian Stephen Pyne: American cities used to burn down — from within — all the time in the 19th century. Portland, Maine, burned in 1866 thanks to a Fourth of July firecracker. Chicago in 1871, after a blaze somehow broke out in a barn. Boston the following year, this time starting in a warehouse basement. Eventually, we got fed up with our cities burning down, so we created professional fire departments, stopped building downtowns out of wood and bolstered public water systems with larger water mains and standardized fire hydrants. Then, it stopped happening.

Now we face a new fire threat — this time, from the outside. Maybe we’re fed up enough to do something about it.

“Cities shouldn’t burn down,” Lempert said with a chuckle, amused by the simplicity of his own words. “So let’s just design them so they don’t.”

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